Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[arist]

I read today that Lugansk is reparing a few SU-25 jets in addition to a L-29 trainer and choppers

 

[nikkkom]

I read today that Lugansk is reparing a few SU-25 jets in addition to a L-29 trainer and choppers

Those "Lugansk repairmen" can do miracles. Apparently they assembled hundreds of tanks, MLRS, artillery pieces from rusty old car parts. More miracles: those MLRS fire volley after volley of rockets (each Grad holds 40 rockets), where those rockets appear from? I tell you: all homemade by coal miners! ;) ;) ;)

 

[Czcibor]

It seems that there is a stand off and Ukraine mobilized some units. Russia of course claim that it did not mobilize any additional, however they also claim not sending there any units at all from the beginning.

http://www.dw.de/russias-lavrov-ukraine-troop-mobilization-wont-help-peace/a-18195973

Our (Polish) foreign affairs minister achieved a rare honour of making Russian foreign affairs minister furious. He mentioned (the 70th anniversary is coming, Putin is not invited, while Poroschenko is) that Auschwitz was liberated by Ukrainians. Technically speaking Red Army unit that captured that town was 100th Rifle Division "Lviv", so it looks as something made of Ukrainians.

In official propaganda Russian mention that we're ungrateful for being "liberated" by them from German occupation. The problem is that the SU used cannon fodder from all over area which it captured, while demand that all glory fall only on Russia. So now it seems that Poland is going to be grateful for this liberation just it would exactly contrary to Russian interests.

EDIT:
"DONETSK, Ukraine – Pro-Russian separatists Thursday, January 22, paraded around 20 captive Ukrainian soldiers through the streets of the rebel stronghold city of Donetsk in a humiliating display hours after 13 people died in a horrendous trolleybus shelling."

Means:
-Putin's men committed another war crime (Geneva convention forbids that)
-It means that the airport as such was captured not much earlier (21?), because otherwise Russians would have done a while before
http://www.rappler.com/world/regions/europe/81687-rebels-ukrainian-pow-donetsk

 

[nikkkom]

Airport terminals are not held by Ukrainian forces anymore.

 

[Czcibor]

Airport terminals are not held by Ukrainian forces anymore.

It seems being part of a bigger offensive, practically on all front line. Situation for 16th December and 22nd January.

 

[nikkkom]

For those who do not know: Igor Girkin is a Russian citizen, used to live in Moscow (has a flat there), who ignited the war in Donbass by crossing the border with a group of armed and trained men.

In this part of the interview he says that in Crimea, members of parliament were *forced to vote* for secession by "rebels", he says he was one of people leading those "rebels". He says that local Ukrainian police and army units in Crimea were NOT actively supporting secession, he thinks without "green men" the secession operation would not be possible.

Full interview:

 

[Astronuc]

Pressure mounts on Russia as Ukraine rebels launch bloody offensive
http://news.yahoo.com/pressure-mounts-russia-ukraine-rebels-launch-offensive-062148314.html

 

[russ_watters]

Pressure mounts on Russia as Ukraine rebels launch bloody offensive
http://news.yahoo.com/pressure-mounts-russia-ukraine-rebels-launch-offensive-062148314.html

I'm not sure the authors of that article know what the word "pressure" means. Later on, though, they do say "worried watching", which seems more accurate.

 

[Borg]

No breaks on the financial situation for Russia.
S&P cuts Russia's credit rating to junk.

 

[Dotini]

No breaks on the financial situation for Russia.
S&P cuts Russia's credit rating to junk.

Oddly enough, the Russian military budget is set to increase by a substantial percentage. The sticks of border revolutions, economic sanctions and oil price collapse don't seem to penetrate the Russian mind.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busin...udget-to-hit-record-81bln-in-2015/509536.html

 

[mheslep]

Oddly enough, the Russian military budget is set to increase by a substantial percentage. ...

Is *planned* to increase. With government revenues sharply down, and borrowing become very expensive, the plan may well not become reality.

 

[Vanadium 50]

In official propaganda Russian mention that we're ungrateful for being "liberated" by them from German occupation.

And ungrateful for being liberated from the Polish intellegentsia at Katyn. And ungrateful for being liberated from self-determination from 1945-1989. Just a bunch of ingrates!

 

[Czcibor]

As a "compromise" Putin had to make his speech about Auschwitz... in Moscow Jewish Museum.

And ungrateful for being liberated from the Polish intellegentsia at Katyn. And ungrateful for being liberated from self-determination from 1945-1989. Just a bunch of ingrates!

From less known:
-mass deportations during WW2 (applied to 800 000 people, maybe half of them returned alive)
(Actually my family was on the list for the 5th wave of deportations, but luckily operation Barbarossa started. Shall I call it liberation?)

-mass murderers of Polish during the Great Purge (over 110 thousand)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Operation_of_the_NKVD_(1937–38)

Oddly enough, the Russian military budget is set to increase by a substantial percentage. The sticks of border revolutions, economic sanctions and oil price collapse don't seem to penetrate the Russian mind.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busin...udget-to-hit-record-81bln-in-2015/509536.html

Why shall it be impossible?

Let's assume a linear model, where we take into account Russian currency reserves according to Russian central bank:
http://cbr.ru/Eng/hd_base/Default.aspx?PrtId=mrrf_7d

Let's take weekly data from 4.7.2014 to 16.1.2015, assume a regression model.
R squared is 0.93, so quite good. According to the last observation Russia has 379 bln of reserves, while according to model per week it uses 3.528. So budget for 2015 is not a big deal. According to this crude model game over should happen somewhere around 6.2.2017.
(of course there are plenty of assumptions like low oil price)

 

[mheslep]

It is the recent reserves figures that are most relevant; a year ago oil was still ~$100/bbl. This month Russian currency reserves have been declining $7B/week, which, if trend continues, would wipe them out by end of year. Not the best time splurge military spending.

 

[Czcibor]

There are few things that those data don't show (except oil prices).
-Russian gov willingness to defend its currency (which can made them play against citizens trying to protect their savings)
-using different sources like when at the end of 2014 Putin asked "politely" a few oligarchs to exchange their savings (but this source seems depleted)

For this year Russian companies need something like 120 bln usd.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6ef85db6-8b6d-11e4-be89-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Q8X7lTw6

Hard to say how much the budget needs, its in rubles, and price of oil in rubles is almost stable ;) Anyway it seems that Belarus is preparing to meet with little green men whose weapons can be bought in any shop in Russia:
http://www.belsat.eu/en/articles/re...ross-belarus-threat-russia-or-nato-eng-video/

(I'm not saying that they are really going to be attacked. Logic says no. However, there was also not much point in attacking Ukraine, and now Belarus is deep crisis and seem vulnerable)

 

[Czcibor]

It seems that Greece blocked extended sanctions against Russia (after shelling of Mariupol), and renewed sanctions would be more or less the same, with presumably a few more surnames.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-foreign-minister-warns-of-new-spiral-of-violence-1422536212

Damn, maybe in peace agreement the European Union should offer to cede Greece to Eurasia Union? ;)Russia seem to try to annoy properly British:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/01/raf-russian-bomber-uk-airspace
(privately I don't get this part of their strategy)Russia also tries to me play EU countries against each other by toying with lifting embargo for French pigs:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/us-ukraine-crisis-pork-idUSKBN0KZ1SX20150126In Polish media there are rumours that Russian are using mobile crematoriums. (I may give Polish link) Rather rumours, but of course there is a need to silently dispose gruz-200.
I would like to comment the fact that dollar cost now more than 70 rubles with photo of Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov:

 

[nikkkom]

An overview of the current situation, my attempt of objective analysys
based on facts known to me - which include reading Ukrainian press and
a lot of Ukrainian Facebook friends, some of whom are MPs or work in
executive branch, and reading Russian nationalist sources.I believe I am capable to discern facts from PR smear campaigns.
Where I write below "XYZ is corrupt/incompetent", it means I've seen
_lots_ of data supporting it, from different sources.

So here it goes.

As you all know, Ukraine is a very corrupt country. I wish I could write "used to be",
but it turns out, not much changed.

As in any other big country, internal political landscape consists of several groups.

Ukraine still doesn't have parties aligned along ideology, so these groups
basically compete with each other for the access to political power, governmental
offices, government enterprises, all of which give various opportunities
to get govt contracts, to gain non-market advantages, and many ways to privatize
country's budget.

This doesn't mean that all people in all these groups are complete scoundrels.
No. They all have various ideological preferences, and "in theory" many of them do want
to build a better country. But tactically, they have to compete with other groups.
Anyone who doesn't, gets trampled upon. And if you play as a "honest" player,
you often gets beaten to pulp by dishonest ones...

On to details. The two biggest groups are Poroshenko's group - "BPP", and
Yatsenyk's group - "People's Front", PF. They are nominally a coalition,
but, inevitably, they are competitors.

The "defeated" group of Donbass oligarchs is not really defeated. They have LOTS
of money, and this apparently persuaded Poroshenko to not prosecute most of them.
I can only guess how much they paid for it. On the order of $100m, each,
_at the minimum_.

By law, President (thus, Poroshenko) appoints Attorneys General, National's bank Head,
General Staff's head. _ALL_ of them perform poorly.

Specifically, Attorney General, Vitaly Yarema, did not bring any open cases
against former officials to any tangible results. Lots and lots (hundreds)
of cases of corruption uncovered by press, or previously known cases,
somehow did not make his office to open investigations.
This can't possibly be a case of negligence.

Chief of the General Staff, Viktor Muzhenko, is videly regarded as incompetent.
He is not a coward, but he seems to be utterly incapable to lead an _army_,
to plan coordinated operations of several divisions' worth of people.
At max, he can competently command one division.

Yatsenyk is a Prime Minister, but he doesn't appoint heads of individual ministries.
So, each ministry "belongs" to one or another group.

Interior Ministry (police) is led by Arsen Avakov, a member of PF.
His first deputy is Anton Gerashchenko, a very active FB user. He actually
talks to people over it, takes input on various (alleged) criminal wrongdoings,
reports what he found out, and such. However, the police has improved only slightly.
Many (most?) mid-level police officials are still in their positions,
even known corrupt ones. Generally, Avakov's performance is a mixed bag.

My understanding of situation in Ministry of Energy and Coal Mining is not
very detailed, but as I understand it now, the group which wanted to buy coal
and electric power from Russian (!) as of now managed to achieve it.
Looks like these people are from Poroshenko's group. They even managed to open
an investigation against previous Minister for buying South African coal,
allegedly it was too costly and bad quality (which seems to be not true).

Yatsenyk is very unhappy about this, and not only him.
I'm expecting continued infighting on this front.

The bottom line looks like that Poroshenko has a "pact" with many "defeated"
Donbass oligarchs that he will not destroy them, but will allow them to join
his group in exchange for lots of money and promise to be loyal to him.
(Of course, I have no hard facts proving this, but it's the only explanation
which makes sense).

It might sound surprising, but it's likely Yatsenyk _also_ absorbs some
of "defeated Donbass oligarchs" into _his_ group. An individual "donbass tycoon"
tries to negotiate with BPP or PF depending on how much bad blood from previous
years of infighting is between him and these groups.

Of course, there are "donbass tycoons" who can't be "forgiven" - those are
probably all in Russia now.

Besides BPP and PF, there are other, smaller groups "on the arena".

A notable one of Kolomoysky's group. He is a quite big banker based
in Dnepropetrovsk, known for his clever legal, barely-legal, and
somewhat-illegal business endeavors mostly involving hostile
takeovers of other companies, private and governmental.
This includes such methods as fake shareholders meetings,
paid-for court rulings, etc. Believe or not, he is far from being
the worst shark in the pack - Donbass tycoons often were just hiring
contract killers or "contract kidnappers" to solve their
"business disagreements". But he is clever, and not coward.

During the Maidan, Kolomoysky supported it. He and his people
even had to flee abroad by the end of January 2014.
However, he guessed right: Maidan won.
He returned and become de-facto "biggest Dnepropetrovsk tycoon",
and swiftly started "dealing with" Donbass tycoons who nearly
destroyed him just a month ago.

When first signs of Russia-backed "uprisings" appeared in eastern regions,
including Dnepropetrovsk, then newly-elected President Poroshenko
had to appoint Kolomoysky as "Representative of the President in
Dnepropetrovsk region" (Ukraine has such a Presidential appointee
in every region, it is not a new invention), giving him some
official levers to influence local politics. I think he had not much
of a choice: either give Dnepr to Kolomoysky, or lose it to separatists.

Kolomoysky did _exceptionally_ well. He managed to drive away most
of "Donbass guys" who were everywhere in government apparatus
at the time; he managed to forestall armed "uprisings"
(I dare not speculate by what means; evidently very efficient,
and quite possibly illegal means). He lobbied for central government
to create officially sanctioned volunteer battalions, and recruited
one of the first such battalions, buying equipment for them,
up to armored personnel carriers.

Recall that Dnepropetrovsk is right to the West of Donbass.

By this time, the war in Donbass started (first clashes, infantry weapons,
light armored vehicles at max). The Army was in a bad shape. Kolomoysky
threw everything he could to help it, up to providing thousands of tons
of aviation fuel free of charge, equipping field hospitals, organizing
airlift of wounded from the front to Dnepr. Many voluteer formations
(even those not organized by him) and regular army units' commanders
discovered that if they want something to work, it's much better to talk
to Kolomoysky than to Kiev.

This made Poroshenko very unhappy. Kolomoysky seems to be getting things done -
including helping to fight the war (!) - while Poroshenko looks far worse
despite having much more power.

Most people of Dnepropetrovsk, and many people in other regions
like Kolomoysky's team quite a bit (even though most people are not so naive
as to think that they are angels). And his team has a number of colorful
and likeable characters. I won't expand on that for now.

There is a number of new-ish, smaller (or should I say, less politically
powerful) forces and individuals in politics now. Like Right Sector,
and independent journalists and MPs. Some of them seem genuinely willing
to fix the country for real, not merely to turn tables in their favor.
For one, they are trying to force Poroshenko to sack Attroney General
and Chief of Staff.

An interesting phenomenon is civilian "volunteers" who help Army and
volunteer battalions to procure equipment (such as night vision googles,
drones - but at the beginning, just clothing and food!).
After first few months of purely voluteer work, since Army was
in a really bad shape, Poroshenko allowed them (or "was forced to"?)
to actually occupy some official positions in Ministry of Defence
- where they, with support of its Minister, proceeded
to fire hundreds of old bureaucratic ass-hats (MUCH kicking and screaming)
and started to overhaul Army supply apparatus. It seems to work!

On the international front, US and EU seems to be aware of the fact
that Poroshenko (and quite likely Yatsenuk) aren't really trying to fix
the broken system - thank God, seems like intelligence services DO their work
in US and EU!
And they seem to be telling Poroshenko/Yatsenyuk "No guys, quit pretending.
We won't be giving you money just because you fight with Russia.
This endless raiding of your own country's finances has to stop.
It's pointless lying to us about 'reforms', we know what you are really doing
(as in: 'you arent doing much')".
Maybe they even demand some specific steps, I don't know.
I truly hope they do. We need any help we can get beating our "leaders"
into working for the country, not their pockets.

 

[Dotini]

Rapid and dangerous escalation looms in Ukraine.

http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2015/02/02/u-s-russia-clash-in-ukraine/

Thus far, despite evidence of Russian advisers in Ukraine and claims of Russian tank presence, Putin denies that he has intervened. But if U.S. cargo planes start arriving in Kiev with Javelin anti-tank missiles, Putin would face several choices.

He could back down, abandon the rebels, and be seen as a bully who, despite his bluster, does not stand up for Russians everywhere.

More in character, he could take U.S. intervention as a challenge and send in armor and artillery to enable the rebels to consolidate their gains, then warn Kiev that, rather than see the rebels routed, Moscow will intervene militarily.

Or Putin could order in the Russian army before U.S. weapons arrive, capture Mariupol, establish a land bridge to Crimea, and then tell Kiev he is ready to negotiate.

 

[mheslep]

As you all know, Ukraine is a very corrupt country.

With respect to what other countries?

 

[nikkkom]

With respect to what other countries?

To Western ones.

 

[Czcibor]

With respect to what other countries?

See Transparency International data:
http://www.transparency.org/cpi2014/results

(Yes, it looks really bad)

 

[Borg]

See Transparency International data:
http://www.transparency.org/cpi2014/results

(Yes, it looks really bad)

Ironic that a former penal colony is now one of the least corrupt countries in the world.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Russia's #136 is not a whole lot better than Ukraine's #142. I would be skeptical of any argument offered that the Russian's are out to "save" the Ukrainians from corruption in their government. Or, taking a line from Animal House, "They can't do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges!"

 

[Czcibor]

Ironic that a former penal colony is now one of the least corrupt countries in the world.

You see - resocialization works :D

Russia's #136 is not a whole lot better than Ukraine's #142. I would be skeptical of any argument offered that the Russian's are out to "save" the Ukrainians from corruption in their government. Or, taking a line from Animal House, "They can't do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges!"

I think that Russia can point out that according to TI data Ukraine fit much more in Eurasia Union than in the EU. ;)

 

[mheslep]

Russian officials are making increasingly threatening statements about nuclear war that require either a clarity of policy from the US administration or an urgency of action. The absence of either leaves only, I think, denial.

"We are hoping that our partners will understand the imprudence of attempts to blackmail Russia, [and] remember what discord between large nuclear powers can do to strategic stability."

"In the absence of political dialogue, with mutual mistrust reaching historical highs, the probability of unintended accidents, including those involving nuclear weapons, is getting more and more real."

on Jan. 27 that if Russia is cut off from the Swift international payment system as punishment for its actions in Ukraine, its response “will know no limits.”

excluding Russia from Swift would mean “war.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-new-large-nuclear-power-warning-to-West.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/david-satter-putins-shaky-hold-on-power-1423009255
http://www.economist.com/news/europ...-war-ukraine-and-his-confrontational-rhetoric

Edit: Was I hasty? The US President did in fact speak recently on serious threats:

And no challenge -- no challenge -- poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change.

Repetition was used here, I suppose, to either i) catch up those who missed it the first time by playing with their phones, or ii) to indicate something like "don't bother me about anything else, as I have spoken" - a fair interpretation given the 85 I/me/my/mine self-references in the speech.

Somewhere below the greatest challenge -- the greatest challenge -- of climate change, Ukraine was referenced, once:

We're upholding the principle that bigger nations can't bully the small -- by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine's democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.

 

[Dotini]

Excellent post, mheslep.
All signs point to a tightening of the noose. I'm sure Victoria Nuland is feeling quite chuffed!

 

[Borg]

Excellent post, mheslep.
All signs point to a tightening of the noose. I'm sure Victoria Nuland is feeling quite chuffed!

Maybe she should check out the featured thread on What color clothing is safest during a nuclear explosion?

 

[Czcibor]

Russian officials are making increasingly threatening statements about nuclear war that require either a clarity of policy from the US administration or an urgency of action. The absence of either leaves only, I think, denial.

We hear such defiant nuclear related threats from time to time, so it's not specially impressive. (this time serious?)

Anyway, cutting them from SWIFT I consider as bad idea. Let them pay their debts first...

 

[mheslep]

We hear such defiant nuclear related threats from time to time, so it's not specially impressive. (this time serious?)

Please show one such threat, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union from any of the world's NPT recognized nuclear weapons states, and before the Crimea annex.

 

[mheslep]

Anyway, cutting them from SWIFT I consider as bad idea. Let them pay their debts first...

Europe should probably surrender; this independent nation and international Westphalian sovereignty system is antagonistic.

 

[Czcibor]

Please show one such threat, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union from any of the world's NPT recognized nuclear weapons states, and before the Crimea annex.

Medvietiev, 2011:

“If the enumerated measures are insufficient, the Russian Federation will deploy in the country’s west and south modern strike weapons systems which guarantee the destruction of MD’s European component. One such step will be deployment of the ‘Iskander’ missile system in the Kaliningrad special region.”

OK, that were (presumably) threats with conventional missile.

source: https://russiandefpolicy.wordpress.com/2011/11/

Putin 2008:
""It's horrible to say and even horrible to think that, in response to the deployment of such facilities in Ukrainian territory, which cannot theoretically be ruled out, Russia could target its missile systems at Ukraine. Imagine this for a second. That is what worries us,"
(this was interpreted by the Guardian as nuclear threat)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/13/russia.putin

For me it looks as barely more than business as usual. Except no one in the West cared about prior threats.

 

[mheslep]

For me it looks as barely more than business as usual. Except no one in the West cared about prior threats.

Thanks for the references Czcibor, but I see a strong distinction between the actual text of those earlier comments and what's actually been said recently by Putin, Ivanov, and the Russian PM, both in terms of nuclear vs conventional response, and also in terms of who the threats are against, previously just neighbors, now all of Europe and the US.

 

[nikkkom]

The threats are empty because thousands, maybe even tens of thousands of children, wives, grandchildren etc of Russian elite live in various Western countries.

And Obama and other Western leaders do appear to act sensibly, letting Russian economy to crash, slowly enough so that there is no single sudden event which looks like an "attack". West just stopped investing in Russia, and since its debts are larger that its reserves, it can't pay them off without reforming its corrupt klepto-economy, and Putin can't reform it because that is the very system which keeps him in power.

 

[Dotini]

Leaving aside the geopolitics for a moment, here is a quick peek at some technical and tactical data of interest.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31146595

A rebel Strela-10 air defence system on the streets of Donetsk

 

[lisab]

Thanks for the references Czcibor, but I see a strong distinction between the actual text of those earlier comments and what's actually been said recently by Putin, Ivanov, and the Russian PM, both in terms of nuclear vs conventional response, and also in terms of who the threats are against, previously just neighbors, now all of Europe and the US.

I don't discount Putin's previous threats because they were targeted at "just neighbors" - why do you?

A threat is a threat.