Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[Czcibor]

Concerning Putin logic - one more idea.

Executive summary: Sochi boosted his ratings by a few percentage points, while such invasion by over 20 percentage points. (think how he boosted his image at start)
http://imrussia.org/en/analysis/nation/2135-putins-ratings-anomaly-or-trend

 

[nikkkom]

Excellent article.
West has something Putin can't possibly match: vastly superior economic power.

West can give Ukraine as much money as it needs - and for the West, the needed sums will actually look modest. $100 billion? EU just forgave as much to Greece!

And additionally, West can use these money as a stick - Ukrainian kleptocrats have no one else to turn to. Whatever reforms West demands, they will HAVE TO implement.

It will not be "doing ukrainians' job for them", it will be "helping them": Ukrainian public pushes for reforms as hard as it can, right now.

The only problem, how to make Western bureaucrats to appoint a *competent* team to oversee this project? I have no illusions that Western bureaucracy is an *efficient* mechanism. We just saw how US poured about a trillion dollars into Iraq, with almost no visible results.

 

[nikkkom]

>> His neighbor is not a wife beater. His neighbor has a long history of attacking him...

A long history that ended - even reversed - 60 years ago. The reversal of which is why NATO exists!

It's you who misunderstood my post. "He" in that phrase was Ukraine, not Russia. The "neighbor" is Russia. You seem to understand it as "He" = Russia, "neighbor" = Europe.

 

[Czcibor]

Excellent article.
West has something Putin can't possibly match: vastly superior economic power.

West can give Ukraine as much money as it needs - and for the West, the needed sums will actually look modest. $100 billion? EU just forgave as much to Greece!

And additionally, West can use these money as a stick - Ukrainian kleptocrats have no one else to turn to. Whatever reforms West demands, they will HAVE TO implement.

It will not be "doing ukrainians' job for them", it will be "helping them": Ukrainian public pushes for reforms as hard as it can, right now.

The only problem, how to make Western bureaucrats to appoint a *competent* team to oversee this project? I have no illusions that Western bureaucracy is an *efficient* mechanism. We just saw how US poured about a trillion dollars into Iraq, with almost no visible results.

I consider as quite funny this mechanism of disciplining your politicians. (but to be honest to much smaller extend we use it also in Poland, and have our gov officially explain to EU why our budget deficit is a bit too big)

There are a few differences here. Greece was first given quite a lot of money when it joined the EU in 1981 (technically speaking European Community). It was a political decision, because of communism threat. So a lot of money was taken, but not too much reforms implemented. It was not giving $100 BLN. It was more that those money were already lent a while ago so it was more just officially admitting that part of money is already for sure wasted.

Technically speaking - in case of Greece there was recently used Troika (EU+IMF+ECB). Maybe not the best choice (a bit too preocupied with short term financial results), but good enough.

Because of Greece there is now not too good moment for that. (you know, think about convincing taxpayers to support another such big program, when the previous one do not look like success and more like just drowning their money). But it seems as the best idea right now.

 

[Astronuc]

Separatist commander says can fire on Ukrainian transport hub town despite truce
http://news.yahoo.com/separatist-commander-says-rebels-fire-ukrainian-town-debaltseve-102908674.html

DONETSK (Reuters) - A senior pro-Russian separatist commander said on Sunday that, despite a ceasefire, rebels have the right to fire on the town of Debaltseve in east Ukraine as it is "our territory."
. . .
"Of course we can open fire (on Debaltseve), it is our territory... The territory is inside, it is ours," Eduard Basurin told Reuters by phone, saying that elsewhere separatists were observing the truce.

Um, no!

 

[nikkkom]

Because of Greece there is now not too good moment for that. (you know, think about convincing taxpayers to support another such big program, when the previous one do not look like success and more like just drowning their money). But it seems as the best idea right now.

The idea is to NOT give lots of money at once. Give a little (a few billions), and demand specific changes. If changes do not happen, refuse to give more money until they do. Right now, Ukrainian government will have absolutely no choice but to do what is asked of it. Unlike past governments, they can't possibly turn to Russia, you know :) [if they try to do anything like that, they will probably be caught and executed by angry mobs].

Eventually, if this method succeeds, after many installments, total may end up somewhere in 50-100 billion dollars range. It would be well worth it. Losing Ukraine to Russia would create a far bigger threat than Russia currently is.

 

[nikkkom]

By all indications, Ukrainian General Staff continues to display shocking levels of incompetency.
"Almost encirclement" of Debaltsevo slowly goes from bad to worse, but generals neither order them to withdraw nor allow them to respond to shelling which continues right now - you know, "ceasefire"!

 

[Czcibor]

The idea is to NOT give lots of money at once. Give a little (a few billions), and demand specific changes. If changes do not happen, refuse to give more money until they do. Right now, Ukrainian government will have absolutely no choice but to do what is asked of it. Unlike past governments, they can't possibly turn to Russia, you know :) [if they try to do anything like that, they will probably be caught and executed by angry mobs].

Eventually, if this method succeeds, after many installments, total may end up somewhere in 50-100 billion dollars range. It would be well worth it. Losing Ukraine to Russia would create a far bigger threat than Russia currently is.

In theory - sounds very reasonable, as something as I would willing sponsor from my tax money.

The main problems:
-The countries that are really nervous, Poland and Balts are clearly neither rich nor big enough to sponsor that on their own.
-The country who as usual would fit the main part of the bill, treats Russian behaviour as disgusting but not as direct threat. From German perspective there is some business to be done with Russia while Russian attempt to vassalize Ukraine seems as limited action.
(think in the following way - if Russia can collapse if the oil prices stay low for a few years, would spending lot's of money to speed that up be so good investment for Germans or countries that are even more far away)
-As usual coordination problem in the EU. We have a bunch of bureaucrats and local politicians with contradicting aims (including those who go to Brussels just to play a drama for audience in their home country) - system works not so bad in normal cases, but stops to a grind when facing any non standard challenge (European Central Bank needed over 6 years to start quantitative easing). The system is highly based on consensus which makes speedy decisions very hard.EDIT: Yes, I know, because of those governance problems the EU should be turned in Imperium Europaeum. ;)

 

[nikkkom]

In theory - sounds very reasonable, as something as I would willing sponsor from my tax money.

The main problems:
-The countries that are really nervous, Poland and Balts are clearly neither rich nor big enough to sponsor that on their own.

Well, so far I did not see a definite evidence that these countries sent any material help more substantial than footwear and clothing. I'm not talking about tanks, but they are not _that_ poor that they can't buy and ship encrypted comm gear, for example?

We appreciate diplomatic support, we really do, but Russia sends MUCH more than that to their stooges.

 

[Czcibor]

Well, so far I did not see a definite evidence that these countries sent any material help more substantial than footwear and clothing. I'm not talking about tanks, but they are not _that_ poor that they can't buy and ship encrypted comm gear, for example?

We appreciate diplomatic support, we really do, but Russia sends MUCH more than that to their stooges.

Yes, I also see it as some disgrace that we haven't done that yet.

(of course on the list of what to do should be also stopping boosting demand for Russian gas by subsidizing purchase of natural gas by Ukrainian households; or retreating from Dobalcevo a while ago instead of being encircled there)

 

[nikkkom]

A location which received lots of Grads.

 

[nikkkom]

OSCE observers can't confirm ceasefire violations in Debatsevo, because they can't reach Debaltsevo, because the road is being shelled by separatists.

LOL...

 

[Astronuc]

Battle rages for town where Ukraine rebels reject ceasefire
http://news.yahoo.com/battle-rages-town-where-ukraine-rebels-reject-ceasefire-125913126.html

Ukraine rebels bury dead who fell hours before ceasefire
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-rebels-bury-dead-fell-hours-ceasefire-221600344.html

US urges Russia, rebels to 'immediately' halt Ukraine attacks
http://news.yahoo.com/us-urges-russia-rebels-immediately-halt-ukraine-attacks-223056301.html

Ukraine cease-fire largely holding, Debaltseve still tense
http://news.yahoo.com/both-sides-claim-violations-ukraine-cease-fire-starts-062029016.html

Ukraine says some soldiers taken prisoner in Debaltseve
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-army-rebels-miss-deadline-start-weapons-pullback-072759225.html I'm not sure what EU and US hope to accomplish with talks. It seems that they would accept that Russia walks over Ukraine and take what they want.

Putin urges Ukraine troops to give up Debaltseve
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31511926

 

[nikkkom]

Video of separatists capturing some Ukrainian soldiers.
At 9:57 we see an oldish separatist guy in typical russian "ushanka" who says "I was persuading them to surrender..." etc.

Well. This guy is an Lieutenant General of Russian army (!) Alexander Lentsov.

In Russian, in case you want to Google: генерал-лейтенант Александр Ленцов

Google image search:

https://www.google.cz/search?q=генерал-лейтенант+александр+ленцов&tbm=isch

 

[russ_watters]

I'm not sure what EU and US hope to accomplish with talks. It seems that they would accept that Russia walks over Ukraine and take what they want.

Agreed. The logic seems to be "maybe if we give them whatever they want, they'll agree to stop". I seem to remember them trying that on a previous dictator who was invading and annexing countries in Europe. All it does is send a loud and clear message that he can take whatever he wants and we won't try to stop him.

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine is looking smaller these days.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27308526

Agreed. The logic seems to be "maybe if we give them whatever they want, they'll agree to stop". I seem to remember them trying that on a previous dictator who was invading and annexing countries in Europe. All it does is send a loud and clear message that he can take whatever he wants and we won't try to stop him.

Perhaps the EU and the Obama administration are competing for the 2015 Neville Chamberlain Diplomacy Award.

Ukraine crisis: US warns Russia as UN backs ceasefire deal
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31514295Warn about what?! That we will be very cross with Putin?!

 

[russ_watters]

That we will be very cross with Putin?!

Perhaps, terribly vexed?

 

[Dotini]

Listening to BBC radio this morning, it sounds as though the (8000?) Ukrainian forces trapped at the Debaltseve "pocket", lacking resupply of food and ammunition, are either surrendering or pulling out.

 

[nikkkom]

Troops in Debaltseve pocket apparently decided to retreat without command, remembering that on previous occasions General Staff was neither helping besieged units nor ordering retreat.

President now says the retreat was "executed as planned", but I don't believe it's true. He also downplays the losses.

About 100 soldiers are captured, about 50-100 killed (both numbers are very approximate), the rest seem to be finishing pullout.

 

[Astronuc]

Isn't it customary to support ground troops with air power? Does Ukraine have an air force? Do they have helicopters?

 

[Dotini]

Basically, it's over. PBS chief reporter for foreign affairs Margaret Warner reported this evening that Putin now appears to be in the drivers seat, with Poroshenko and his army now discredited by the disaster at Debaltseve. Warner reported Poroshenko to be on shaky political ground; look for him to be challenged or replaced soon, she hinted. Le Pen in France is said to be calling for acknowledgment of Crimea as Russia.

 

[mheslep]

Given the failure of the cease fire, the delivery of US defensive weapons to Ukraine seems more likely than not. I'm curious as to the European opinion on i) the US supply of weapons to Ukraine, and ii) the European supply of weapons to Ukraine.

 

[mheslep]

Basically, it's over.

What's over? Partition of Ukraine is over, so that Putin can move on to the next country? Surrender of Europe? Crimea is already Russian.

 

[Dotini]

What's over? Partition of Ukraine is over, so that Putin can move on to the next country? Surrender of Europe? Crimea is already Russian.

My guess: The shooting war is over and Ukraine has lost. The peace agreement will be implemented as signed. But much more negotiation remains, such as the exact degree of autonomy for the eastern republics. Putin will not attack other nations but work to rebuild trade with Europe. With his left hand he will build trade with China.

 

[nikkkom]

Isn't it customary to support ground troops with air power? Does Ukraine have an air force? Do they have helicopters?

Yes, they have air power.

There are numerous reports of anti-air weaponry in "rebel" hands. Even when conflict was not as intense, man-portable anti-air weapons were effective against helos, and you remember MH17. Ukrainian forces probably conserve air power for now.

 

[Astronuc]

Errors over Ukraine 'catastrophic': UK parliament report
http://news.yahoo.com/errors-over-ukraine-catastrophic-uk-parliament-report-023746893.html

London (AFP) - Britain and the European Union are guilty of "sleepwalking" into a crisis in Ukraine, a scathing report from a British parliamentary committee said on Friday.

Yep. Someone awake now?

When a Ceasefire Is Not a Ceasefire
http://news.yahoo.com/ceasefire-not-ceasefire-185327702--politics.html

Britain warns of Russian danger to Baltic states: reports
http://news.yahoo.com/britain-warns-russian-danger-baltic-states-reports-035343319.html

But - Britain, Spain oppose military aid for Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/london-madrid-still-opposed-military-aid-ukraine-142404407.html

Madrid (AFP) - Britain and Spain said Thursday the solution to the Ukrainian conflict had to come through dialogue and should not involve military aid to Ukrainian forces.

A dialogue with someone holding a gun to one's head? Is this the English way?

 

[nikkkom]

My guess: The shooting war is over and Ukraine has lost. The peace agreement will be implemented as signed.

What peace agreement? Putin doesn't want peace, he wants Ukraine as a vassal state, or destroyed.

 

[nikkkom]

About 100 soldiers are captured, about 50-100 killed (both numbers are very approximate), the rest seem to be finishing pullout.

censor.net, one of more reliable news sources in Ukraine, collected information from battalion commanders and the tally of confirmed losses is: 163 killed, 110 captured, 29 missing. The numbers are not final, of course.

 

[russ_watters]

What peace agreement? Putin doesn't want peace, he wants Ukraine as a vassal state, or destroyed.

A temporary pause to count and consolidate his winnings, perhaps?

 

[Dotini]

NY Times article contains links to useful maps.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/w...to-try-to-impose-ukraine-cease-fire.html?_r=1

Soldiers who were evacuated from Debaltseve drank at a pizzeria in Artemivsk. Other soldiers commandeered taxis and shot up an expensive restaurant.

ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine — As violence continued to plague eastern Ukraineon Thursday, demoralized Ukrainian soldiers straggled into the town of Artemivsk, griping about incompetent leadership and recounting desperate conditions and gruesome killing as they beat a haphazard retreat from the strategic town of Debaltseve.

Gunshots rang out on the central square, as many soldiers began drinking heavily. One soldier stood, swaying, on the sidewalk mumbling to himself. Others, who had escaped from Debaltseve after weeks of shelling, were seizing taxicabs without payment. It was not clear that all of them had been given places to sleep, and one group stood silently, shivering on a street outside the Hotel Ukraine.

At Biblios, an upscale restaurant, soldiers tramped about the dining room, ordering brandy that they could not afford, then firing shots into the ceiling as the paying guests quietly fled the premises.

 

[Astronuc]

Errors over Ukraine 'catastrophic': UK parliament report
http://news.yahoo.com/errors-over-ukraine-catastrophic-uk-parliament-report-023746893.html

Yep. Someone awake now?

When a Ceasefire Is Not a Ceasefire
http://news.yahoo.com/ceasefire-not-ceasefire-185327702--politics.html

Britain warns of Russian danger to Baltic states: reports
http://news.yahoo.com/britain-warns-russian-danger-baltic-states-reports-035343319.html

But - Britain, Spain oppose military aid for Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/london-madrid-still-opposed-military-aid-ukraine-142404407.htmlA dialogue with someone holding a gun to one's head? Is this the English way?

But it's OK for Russia to arm separatists or invade neighboring countries, as long as they have observe a cease-fire and engage in a dialogue. Or are the EU and US engaged in a dialogue, with each other, or are they just talking to themselves? So much for the rhetoric about supporting democracy and defending Europe.

Ukraine: Rebels still attacking despite alleged cease-fire
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-rebel-attacks-continue-despite-cease-fire-074950650.html

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Separatist rebels fired on Ukrainian positions nearly 50 times in the past 24 hours and Russia is sending more tanks into Ukraine despite a cease-fire that was supposed to take effect five days ago, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Friday.

The report, which came a day after the Russian-backed rebels captured the key rail hub of Debaltseve, raises the question of whether weeks of high-level diplomacy aimed at producing a cease-fire and peace plan for eastern Ukraine simply allowed the rebels to redouble efforts to grab more territory.

The village of Kurakhovo, west of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, was hit by fire from Grad rockets and the village of Berdyansk, near the key port city of Mariupol, was hit overnight by artillery and mortar fire, Lt. Col. Anatoliy Stelmakh said Friday.

 

[Astronuc]

Russia 'undermining' global world order: US
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-undermining-global-world-order-us-232613401.html

But it's just talk, unless backed up by action.

A commentator mentions that snipers (apparently pro-Russian) opened up on pro-European protesters about a year ago. That was a sure sign of things to come, but Europe and US more or less sat still.

Recently, a squadron of A-10s was moved toward the region. It's probably too little, too late.

The time to prevent an invasion is before the invaders cross the border.Meanwhile - Moscow protesters strike out against Ukraine and the West
http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-gather-moscow-protest-fascist-coup-kiev-125253591.html

on the other hand - Russian conscripts tell of fears of being sent to Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-conscripts-tell-fears-being-sent-ukraine-122703194.html As ravaged Ukraine town regains peace (under occupation), fear of war remains
http://news.yahoo.com/ravaged-ukraine-town-regains-peace-213426934.html

I'm curious to know how many of the 'rebels' are actually from Debaltseva. Anyway, I imagine that the residents are Ukranian, and thus their property/land has been stolen by the 'rebels'.

 

[nikkkom]

Found a map of the entire country, with "rebel"-held area.

Debaltsevo area where "ceacefire"-induced fighting was raging last days is the salient in the north of red area. Since this map was drawn, "rebel"-controlled area became slightly bigger.

 

[Dotini]

Oligarch funded militias threaten the state of Ukraine as well as eastern rebels.
http://www.vox.com/2015/2/20/8072643/ukraine-volunteer-battalion-danger
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_(website)
The eastern Ukraine conflict is typically seen as a war between the Ukrainian military, on one side, and Russian-backed rebels, fighting alongside unacknowledged Russian forces, on the other. But there is another faction fighting as well, one that has gone largely overlooked: the dozens of private "volunteer" militias that share Ukraine's goal of crushing the separatists, but that aren't necessarily operating under its control. These groups have proved useful to the Ukrainian government's war effort, but they pose a serious threat to the long-term stability of Ukraine.

By many estimates, there are approximately 30 of these private armies fighting on the Ukrainian side. Their fighters are accused of serious http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/EUR50/040/2014/en/bb06b5cb-dcb4-4f69-bb3e-c800987676cc/eur500402014en.html , including kidnappings, torture, and extrajudicial executions.

The longer these groups continue to operate, the greater the chances that their leaders will exploit their power for personal or political gain, and cement their own power to operate without constraint from the central government. That undermines the power of Ukraine's government, risks chaos in a part of the country that has already suffered too much, and raises the possibility that even if separatist forces are defeated, eastern Ukraine might be left as an ungoverned collection of warlord-dominated fiefdoms.

 

[Czcibor]

Isn't it customary to support ground troops with air power? Does Ukraine have an air force? Do they have helicopters?

It was not a case for air support (too high losses) but for counter battery fire (artillery + very precise radar to aim it in source of fire)

Just it seems that the West haven't provided Ukrainian forces with proper toys...I'm impressed by Gazprom idea of invoicing Ukrainian for the natural gas Russians allegedly sent to areas controlled by Russian mercenaries:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e77e5db6-b85f-11e4-b6a5-00144feab7de.html