Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[voko]

You are being evasive. It sounds like you are saying you don't believe his reasons or believe he wants to annex Crimea but won't because it would be stupid.

I do not see any rational reason for him to want to annex Crimea. I cannot say if he really wants to, I cannot read his mind. I believe annexing Crimea would be a very stupid idea both for Putin and for Russia in general.

Except for the troops that weren't there.

Putin seems to have denied sending any troops to Crimea or elsewhere (but I may have misinterpreted that - let's wait for the transcript).

The Russian majority is only 60/40 -- as if that were a justification for an invasion, Pennsylvania's German population is probably higher than that. And as far as I'm aware, no one took any polls/votes.

I am not sure why you are talking about justifications in the first place. I did say that in my opinion his act has a clear focus on Kiev, not on Crimea. Crimea is just a fantastic opportunity.

Ahem, again, you are being evasive. The revolution/coup happened in Kiev, not Crimea. There were some minor demonstrations in Crimea afterwards, but little or no violence.

You are misinterpreting what I am saying. Probably because you have "annexation" firmly established in your perception. I hope the previous paragraph clarifies my opinion.

Still, Putin is now suggesting he wants to reinstall the previous regime in Ukraine. I see him attempting to keep the rest of Ukraine as a puppet state while annexing Crimea.

He just said very clearly that there was no political future for Yanukovich and that he is interested just as everybody else is that the new election be held transparently and that he is ready to work with any legitimate government. He views Ukraine's Acting President as illegitimate, the Parliament as partly legitimate so it is not entirely impossible for Russia to have some state-level dialogue with the current regime. This of course can all be smoke and mirrors, but such are his statements.

I didn't say you did. I'm asking.

Given Putin's denial of having sent any troops anywhere to begin with, I must say I am confused. I need to read that transcript to understand his position better.

What evidence, anyway, do we have that (1) more Russian troops were sent to Crimea; (2) Russian troops intervened in any way?

 

[russ_watters]

*blink* What evidence? Have you read or watched ANY news on this issue?

 

[Borek]

I can't remember now if I have heard about Russians sending additional troops to Crimea - they have quite a force there since collapse of Soviet Union, in the naval base in Sevastopol. I recall hearing about troops being relocated to the Ukrainian borders near Kharkiv and Donetsk.

For sure their forces were moving around Crimea outside of the base.

 

[voko]

Yeah, SOME. Here is a recent bit: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/04/stop-or-we-ll-shoot-standoff-at-ukraine-s-belbek-base/

"... attempted to speak with the pro-Russian troops guarding the base."

"Ukraine has accused the Kremlin of seizing key border posts and deploying 16,000 Russian troops in the region since last Friday."

"Russia has so far denied their troops are on the ground saying local forces are securing the area."

What do you make of that?

 

[Czcibor]

Yeah, SOME. Here is a recent bit: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/04/stop-or-we-ll-shoot-standoff-at-ukraine-s-belbek-base/

"... attempted to speak with the pro-Russian troops guarding the base."

"Ukraine has accused the Kremlin of seizing key border posts and deploying 16,000 Russian troops in the region since last Friday."

"Russia has so far denied their troops are on the ground saying local forces are securing the area."

What do you make of that?

That Putin as usual lying, this time about troops that he has sent there? Including those that he asked first to take off Russian uniforms?

By occasion one of Polish newspapers made a list of 9 best (out of reality) quotations from Putin speech, sorry, in Polish, so only for Borek:
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomo...ali_w_Kijowie_byli_szkoleni.html#BoxSlotI3img

Inlcuding the best: "People, who were shoting, had been trained in Poland".

 

[voko]

Looking at some of their gear, the uniformed gunmen without insignia do appear to be of the Russian military. I was not checking that thoroughly when the original news came, assuming there was reason to lie about that, but after Putin's statement I felt some more scrutiny was necessary.

So, according to him, they then must be from the original Black Sea Fleet contingent in Crimea, implementing extended security measures for Russian military assets there. I think this still does not quite square with some reports, but may be plausible enough for a détente.

 

[voko]

That Putin as usual lying, this time about troops that he has sent there?

That still remains to be demonstrated. There were Russian troops before the whole thing started.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26429659
Today appears to be a day of calm and hope. Russian forces wargaming along the border have returned to barracks. Negotiations have broken out. Remarkably, Gazprom continues gas deliveries for which Ukraine is unable to pay, and further extends credit.

 

[OmCheeto]

Yeah, SOME. Here is a recent bit: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/04/stop-or-we-ll-shoot-standoff-at-ukraine-s-belbek-base/

"... attempted to speak with the pro-Russian troops guarding the base."

"Ukraine has accused the Kremlin of seizing key border posts and deploying 16,000 Russian troops in the region since last Friday."

"Russia has so far denied their troops are on the ground saying local forces are securing the area."

What do you make of that?

It would seem that some Ukrainians like the fact that the Russians have come to visit.

Simferopol, Ukraine - In the Crimean capital, an uneasy calm pervades much of the city, where Russian troops are positioned along some of the main streets and local residents attempt to carry on with their daily lives.

Support for the Russian "invasion" appears widespread in the city, with Russian flags on display throughout the capital. There are also small but daily rallies held in a show of support for the Russian presence and as a declaration for disdain for the protesters in Kiev and for Ukraine's new government.

Beneath one of the images:

Members of a "self defence force" guard masked gunmen, who are widely understood to be Russian soldiers.

(ref)

 

[MarneMath]

I couldn't find the original video on CNN, but I watched it on TV. Those aren't tanks. Those are self-propelled artillery which is definitely a bigger deal than tanks. It implies an expectation of land battle against land armies at a distance.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... Russian naval ships are trying to block a Ukrainian flagship, returning from an African anti-pirate assignment, passing through the Bosphorus (Istanbul Strait) entering the Black Sea, escorted by Turkish naval ships, eight Turkish F16 fighter jets has also been seen on the location ...

Madeleine Albright on CNN: "Russian president is delusional"

The strict rules of this forum forbids me to express my true opinion regarding all this, all I can say that this woman seems to be very intelligent, with a proper analysis of the situation.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcMP1sYiTno
http://www.youtube.com/embed/pcMP1sYiTno

 

[voko]

... Russian naval ships are trying to block a Ukrainian flagship, returning from an African anti-pirate assignment, passing through the Bosphorus (Istanbul Strait) entering the Black Sea, escorted by Turkish naval ships, eight Turkish F16 fighter jets has also been seen on the location ... [/I]

Isn't that the ship that we were given conflicting news about a couple of days ago, like it was defecting to Russia or staying loyal to Ukraine? BTW, I have tried to locate this news, but I get this: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...aines-flagship-hetman-sahaidachny-338366.html, according to which: "A Ukrainian defense ministry statement earlier today said that as of 8 a.m. the nation’s flagship vessel had passed through the Dardanalles Strait in Turkey. It was accompanied by the Turkish pleasure craft Rusen Bey. " What's your source?

 

[StevieTNZ]

A few statements made in our Parliament regarding this situation:

http://www.inthehouse.co.nz/video/31684
and
http://www.inthehouse.co.nz/video/31686

Our Minister of Trade has stopped talks with Russia about a free-trade agreement.

 

[Crazymechanic]

the problem with this thread is that it is overly american.
You all are quite smart people I must say , many of you know more than the average person and still you fail to realize one very simple thing.
Every country has it's interests and spheres of influence also geopolitical, now every big country has the same things they are just bigger. So the world superpowers like Russia , China, US, all have their interests and buffer zones.

Mr.Putin didn't pay me to write this , be assured but you have to realize that Russia will not allow a pro western CIA controlled or overthrown government right next to it's doorstep,

The same thing has happened ever since and honestly the US isn't any better. Half of Latin america is under the influence of US and the governments are not only pro US sometimes they are even directly coordinated from the US intelligence etc.
Russia is doing the same thing and has been doing it ever since with the helf od the all wise KGB , the only thing is that russians like it with a louder bang so to speak of , so instead of covertly doing this they just go in and say , this is part of our interest etc.

I'm not saying that innocent poeple should die but the radicals in Ukraine are not all that friendly and good , later it will turn out just like the CIA who sponsored the mujahedin agaisnt Soviet Union , first they fought the enemy , then they backfired and started to kill americans with their own guns. In the free time they kill each other for any reason that comes to mind.

The Russian backed president stole some money that is for sure but the pro western leaders are just as wealthy if not more , honestly all the US and EU care is a pro western government but no matter who is in charge they steal nevertheless and corruption is not in US intersst anymore , as long as the president sings the " right song" all other things are second hand interests if at all.So the people of Ukraine will not benefit from a western government just as they will not from a pro Russian one , sadly but true.

+ the fact already mentioned by a Mentor here that Crimea was indeed part of Russia as was given to Ukraine actually just as a symbol of goodwill , so quite honestly if you ask me , if after all these years a situation has broken out which is dangerous to both countries , let them have it back , they don't care as much as the west does't , it;s only about how close can we get to Russian borders for the west that interests them.

I would suggest for everyone posting here to have or atleast try to have a more in depth understanding of European history , the history of the USSR, and the sentiment of slavic people.

Quite frankly Putin may be a liar and a cruel leader but let's face it , ukraine is full of extremists , and as much as I have seen from my own experience , the ones that are most active in such situations are the radicals and much less the ordinary people.
Revolutions are not fought by everyday working class people , every revolution and country has pretended they are but their not and everyone who knows something and reads alittle bit understands that.
One must ask who are these poeple , are all of them representing the people of Ukraine and what is there interest , one isn't risking his life for no good reason , even the terrorists have a reason and quite frankly a deep one.

 

[DennisN]

I couldn't find the original video on CNN, but I watched it on TV. Those aren't tanks. Those are self-propelled artillery which is definitely a bigger deal than tanks. It implies an expectation of land battle against land armies at a distance.

Good observation. This crisis is complicated, and could get more complicated. If Ukraine launch a counterattack on Crimea, Russia will have a/another* reason to launch an attack on East Ukraine.

* They may already have a reason, of course. I don't know their plans.

 

[MarneMath]

Crazymechanic, I think most people here understand that Russia has a vested interest in protecting the Russian Sphere of influence. However, the question is more about what overt action are you willing to take in order to protect the buffer zone, and whether protecting a buffer zone, can be considered in the international community as a legit reason to 'invade' a sovereign country. While the American media will make Putin seem as insane and cruel, I'm sure he isn't acting from a completely irrational state like a leader from North Korea would. He's clearly an intelligent and tactically sound person, and has a clear goal of reestablishing dominance of the Russian Sphere. Also, this event isn't surprising, especially since within the last 5 years, he's basically called the Ukraine and Georgia his redline. Clearly, he doesn't want NATO countries on his door step. So, I'm sure everyone here understands this and is aware of this, even if it is going unstated.

The rest of your post is a bit to speculative for me to comment on.

 

[mheslep]

Russia already has a couple NATO member countries on its border. If the Russian Federation were to be successful in annexing all of Ukraine, then it would have four more NATO countries on the border.

 

[MarneMath]

Of course, Lativia, and Estonia if I remember correctly. Still doesn't change the fact that he clearly doesn't want NATO countries next door. I also highly doubt his goal is to annex the Ukraine. It seems as if he would prefer to let Ukraine remain Ukraine but with strong Russian ties.

 

[Czcibor]

the problem with this thread is that it is overly american.
You all are quite smart people I must say , many of you know more than the average person and still you fail to realize one very simple thing.
Every country has it's interests and spheres of influence also geopolitical, now every big country has the same things they are just bigger. So the world superpowers like Russia , China, US, all have their interests and buffer zones.

I think that while trying to fight with US bias, you replaced it with big power bias. What if people of a medium size country does not want to have a corrupted puppet even when big players wants so?

Mr.Putin didn't pay me to write this , be assured but you have to realize that Russia will not allow a pro western CIA controlled or overthrown government right next to it's doorstep

CIA? What about an idea of local people being just angry, and next steps of regime only agreviating the situation, until its collapse? (the protests started as small pro-EU, but after proper beating of demonstrators by Berkut they turned into big anti-Yanukovich)

I'm not saying that innocent poeple should die but the radicals in Ukraine are not all that friendly and good , later it will turn out just like the CIA who sponsored the mujahedin agaisnt Soviet Union , first they fought the enemy , then they backfired and started to kill americans with their own guns. In the free time they kill each other for any reason that comes to mind.

Well, if regime starts shooting, then local people indeed radicalize. Please explain this let's say... very orginal... scenario in which Ukrainians would start killing Americans.

The Russian backed president stole some money that is for sure but the pro western leaders are just as wealthy if not more , honestly all the US and EU care is a pro western government but no matter who is in charge they steal nevertheless and corruption is not in US intersst anymore , as long as the president sings the " right song" all other things are second hand interests if at all.So the people of Ukraine will not benefit from a western government just as they will not from a pro Russian one , sadly but true.

I wouldn't find condition of Western Ukraine much worse than condition of my country after communism collapse.

+ the fact already mentioned by a Mentor here that Crimea was indeed part of Russia as was given to Ukraine actually just as a symbol of goodwill , so quite honestly if you ask me , if after all these years a situation has broken out which is dangerous to both countries , let them have it back , they don't care as much as the west does't , it;s only about how close can we get to Russian borders for the west that interests them.

What about... Alasca? ;)

I would suggest for everyone posting here to have or atleast try to have a more in depth understanding of European history , the history of the USSR, and the sentiment of slavic people.

Same request for you, from a person belonging to one of Slavic nations.

 

[Crazymechanic]

You can request all you want , my father was slavic and I too come from the ex soviet union , trust me I know stuff. :)

I wasn't quite clear on the CIA stuff, I didn't said that CIA starts riots in other countries, but they do use them for their own interests and have done so several times , many of them well documented even in their own archives.
What a perfect opportunity for the White house to expand when the people of Ukraine ask for western influence directly.
Ofcourse we have to keep in mind that Putin and also White House know more about the situation than we do so that makes our discussion kinda incomplete.

About the Berkut special forces shooting civilians , well honestly their actions compared to similar ones from history seemed very very peaceful, they just protected the few important buildings that a state needs to atleast function and that was their job which they have agreed upon by law and their duty so what do you expect them to do ? Let every wild protester jump and crash and hit things burning tires and doing random actions?
If something on such a scale would have happened ijn Russia or back in the USSR , all of the protesters would have been killed or in prison by now.So from such a perspective I would call the government action kinda peaceful.

Also one must remeber that even though the main idea comes from the people those who fight on the streets sometimes go not only against law but against any normal civilized understanding , it's just human psychology , mass effect etc.So in every such overthrown and national instability one must be ready for casualties.

And I never said that Ukrainians would kill americans, i said that about the muslim terrorists , read carefully.

I wouldn't find condition of Western Ukraine much worse than condition of my country after communism collapse.

Well there are differences , from all the ex communist states the Baltic states are far superior , in everyday language I could say their some 15 years ahead of what Ukraine is now. And much of the export from those countries goes to Russia as well as to western countries.

The best possible scnenario for a country near Russia would be to be neutral , that would be both acceptable for Russia and the country itself , the only problem is it's a illusion tha one can remain neutral in Europe between Russia and the EU +the US

Oh and by the way, Crimea cannot be compared to Alaska , as Alaska was given away to americans for money , aka it was bought. Crimea on the other hand was a Russian territory until it was passed over to Ukraine under the soviet rule , it;'s not nice to take away your own gifts after a while but atleast it;'s not like they take something that has never been theirs.

 

[mheslep]

...it;'s not like they take something that has never been theirs.

Alaska was part of Russia for centuries, like Crimea, though that is incidental. The important point is that a character like Putin may want both Crimea and Alaska; the difference being that he only has a shot at Crimea (this week).

 

[Vanadium 50]

Russia already has a couple NATO member countries on its border.

Of course, Lativia, and Estonia if I remember correctly.

More than that: also Lithuania, Poland, Norway, and arguably the United States.

The whole "buffer zone" argument doesn't work any better in the 21st century than the 18th. The problem is when A invades B as a buffer against enemy C, it loses B as a buffer and is now ironically closer to its enemy. However, as history shows, this doesn't keep countries from trying.

 

[lisab]

Alaska was part of Russia for centuries, like Crimea, though that is incidental. The important point is that a character like Putin may want both Crimea and Alaska; the difference being that he only has a shot at Crimea (this week).

Alaska has no ties to Russia. You could go all over that state and you'd never know it was ever a part of Russia. Well, there are a few of those onion-dome Orthodox churches here and there, mostly for tourists. No language ties, no cultural ties. When I lived there in the 80s there were no economic ties, not sure about now.

I bet New York City has more Russian influence than Alaska!

 

[voko]

a character like Putin

What does that mean?

 

[OmCheeto]

Today at work, it is rumored, that a Ukrainian green carder, told a Russian green carder, that; "The Ukraine has enough missiles to level Moscow...".



Where's Rodney King when you need him.

 

[voko]

Alaska has no ties to Russia. You could go all over that state and you'd never know it was ever a part of Russia.

I remember seeing a while go (long ago, so can't remember any details) on a channel like Discovery a documentary showing there were towns or perhaps villages that were still somewhat Russian - Russian as in Russian Empire, not as in Russian Federation. Fake?

 

[Dotini]

There was a revolution in Ukraine in order to turn towards the EU.

The US says the EU absolutely must support a regime of sanctions against Russia. But maybe the EU says "not so fast", and has different ideas, at least awaiting the outcome of negotiations. Has Obama been sold a bill of goods by his own State Department? How is he to act forcefully and effectively if the EU does not follow suit?

 

[voko]

But maybe the EU says "not so fast", and has different ideas, at least awaiting the outcome of negotiations.

Kerry and Lavrov meet in Paris in a few hours, so that position would not be irrational.

 

[DennisN]

Ukraine Crisis - V. Putin's latest Press Conference [04.03.2014] (full length):
(From yesterday. I just found it, I haven't seen the entire clip yet, I'm watching it right now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hg_4D_qR18s

 

[Vanadium 50]

But what is there to interest the USA here, except for those who want to carry on fighting the Cold War?

One interest is that the Administration does not look like a bunch of mopes who have been caught by surprise. Related to that, had the Administration kept quiet, one could have argued that these were distant events in faraway places of little relevance, but once the President has said that there will be consequences, there have to be for the US to remain credible overseas.

A second interest is in nuclear nonproliferation. The US and Russia have both agreed to ensure the territorial integrity of the Ukraine, in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons. Russia has now violated this agreement. I don't think Russia would have sent troops if the Ukraine were still a nuclear power, and I suspect many countries share this view. So being a nuclear power looks a lot more attractive than it did last week. If the US does not fulfill its end of the bargain, it will look even more attractive.

Might we see Japan go nuclear? Saudi Arabia? Kazakhstan? The answer to that question is clearly in the US interest.

 

[lisab]

I remember seeing a while go (long ago, so can't remember any details) on a channel like Discovery a documentary showing there were towns or perhaps villages that were still somewhat Russian - Russian as in Russian Empire, not as in Russian Federation. Fake?

Well Alaska is a big place, so I can't say such places don't exist. But the villages I visited (mostly while fishing off the Aleutian Islands) were American with a strong native cultural influence - specifically, Inuit. The kids were culturally *totally* American.

The villages all had Orthodox churches but I can't say how much those churches were Russian influenced (my guess would be none), or how much the villagers were influenced by them.

I can't imagine people in those villages would choose to be Russian over American, to be honest. Seriously, if Putin thinks he could do something similar in Alaska based on historical "provenance", he'd be profoundly wrong.

 

[voko]

The official translation of yesterday's press conference: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/6763 . It appears unfinished yet. A summary of statements:

Events in Kiev amount to an anti-constitutional coup
Former President Yanukovych has no political future
Russian forces have not taken part in operations in Crimea
Russia is not thinking of annexing Crimea
Threat of sanctions from the West is counter-productive
Russian actions in Ukraine are in accordance with international law
Russia will not recognise the outcome of upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine if the current "terror" continues

(from here)

 

[voko]

I can't imagine people in those villages would choose to be Russian over American, to be honest. Seriously, if Putin thinks he could do something similar in Alaska based on historical "provenance", he'd be profoundly wrong.

I do not think anyone would be seriously considering that. My question was caused purely by my recollection from that documentary that there was still some Russian heritage in Alaska beyond just church houses.

I think the documentary was about this place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolaevsk,_Alaska which is a new settlement.

 

[SteamKing]

Well Alaska is a big place, so I can't say such places don't exist. But the villages I visited (mostly while fishing off the Aleutian Islands) were American with a strong native cultural influence - specifically, Inuit. The kids were culturally *totally* American.

The villages all had Orthodox churches but I can't say how much those churches were Russian influenced (my guess would be none), or how much the villagers were influenced by them.

I can't imagine people in those villages would choose to be Russian over American, to be honest. Seriously, if Putin thinks he could do something similar in Alaska based on historical "provenance", he'd be profoundly wrong.

Doesn't matter if they pray for a restoration of the Romanovs and sing Russian lullabies every night before they go to sleep. Alaska was purchased straight up by the US from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million. The Aleut tribes which still live in Alaska have a stronger claim to the territory than Putin.