Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

Ukraine was left as part of the Russian empire successor aka the USSR.

If you go back a little further, then Russia becomes a product of Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

It is a bit like Serbia, Kosovo, and the Amselfeld (Kosovo Field), only much bigger.

 

[BillTre]

If you go back a littler further, then Russia becomes a product of Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

Shows the limitations of these kinds of arguments.

 

[fresh_42]

Shows the limitations of these kinds of arguments.

Yes, but this heritage is what makes Russians think that Ukraine is part of their empire. It dates back to 882 AC, the origin of all of them in Kyiv. One has to know this, regardless of how far back it was.

 

[artis]

If you go back a little further, then Russia becomes a product of Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

It is a bit like Serbia, Kosovo, and the Amselfeld (Kosovo Field), only much bigger.

And truth be told for Europe if one takes a large enough time period this argument fails everywhere, because some part in Europe has been enslaved and invaded by some other part of Europe or Scandinavia at some point in history, in fact sometimes many times over.
If I wanted to write down a list of all the wars and who fought who in Europe this thread would become similar to a server log file, nobody would read it, so please take my arguments with some background knowledge,

European history is the "quantum mechanics" of histories. We here exist in a wave function, peace is a probability that fluctuates with time, Russians have decided to put Ukraine in a box now and perform the Schrodinger cat experiment essentially.
Right now Ukraine is in a superposition of states but definitely not in a "super position"...

 

[fresh_42]

If I wanted to write down a list of all the wars and who fought who in Europe this thread would become similar to a server log file, nobody would read it, so please take my arguments with some background knowledge

Sure, but the Kievan Rus are not about an occupation or a war. It is nothing less than the foundation of what we now call Russia. And it began in Kyiv. This is why they call each other brothers and why Russia considers Ukraine as a part of it all. It is more than a historic date. It is their foundation.

 

[artis]

Sure, but the Kievan Rus are not about an occupation or a war. It is nothing less than the foundation of what we now call Russia. And it began in Kyiv. This is why they call each other brothers and why Russia considers Ukraine as a part of it all. It is more than a historic date. It is their foundation.

True , and as all of the Ukrainian arguments this too can be used both in favor of current Kremlin policy as well as against it, given it seems the "big brother" will do anything to stop the "little one",

That is why I said I will try to refrain from commenting policy issues and strategy, it's just a mess , and heck I thought Covid , it's origins were such before,
As the Russian saying goes "the farther into the forest the more trees"

 

[artis]

A Ukrainian citizen asks whether the Russian infantry men need a "ride" back to Moscow after their tank ran out of fuel for whatever reason.
When people that are so ethnically and genetically close wage war it becomes absurd because here you can see a civilian from a passenger car talking to an enemy armored division as if they are next door neighbors and drank together last friday, these same guys are expected to, in theory, kill one another the moment their tank gets fuel.

 

[PeroK]

Yes, but this heritage is what makes Russians think that Ukraine is part of their empire.

It looks like the Ukranians are making the Russians fight for everything they want to take. Maybe they don't want to be part of the Russian empire. It may end badly for Ukraine, but it's hardly the war of liberation that Putin and his apologists portray.

 

[artis]

It looks like the Ukranians are making the Russians fight for everything they want to take. Maybe they don't want to be part of the Russian empire. It may end badly for Ukraine, but it's hardly the war of liberation that Putin and his apologists portray.

I don't know how "deep" you are in terms of Ukrainian details but in any case it is well known that Ukrainians are divided and only the eastern parts as well as some percentage elsewhere wants to go to Russian side, the rest of Ukraine (I would speculate 50+%) want freedom from Russia.
Not sure whether there haven been polls lately on this issue but I can tell you from a "field" perspective that if there was a referendum Ukraine would vote at least 60% in favor of freedom and no Russian political authority (cultural yes) but not political or military.

It would be a "brexit" but with stronger percentage for those in favor,

 

[Jodo]

At the risk of being overly technical, I believe the us has no nuclear missiles in Europe already.

I believe US has approx 200 missiles there. Germany definitely has some

 

[fresh_42]

I believe US has approx 200 missiles there. Germany definitely has some

I'm not sure about the nuclear situation in Germany either. But anyway, this would be a question of hours. The US still runs military bases in Germany. E.g. the biggest US hospital outside the mainland US is in Germany and the corresponding base is a central node for the distribution of soldiers and material these days. They wouldn't even have to schedule a particular flight.

 

[Jodo]

A Ukrainian citizen asks whether the Russian infantry men need a "ride" back to Moscow after their tank ran out of fuel for whatever reason.
When people that are so ethnically and genetically close wage war it becomes absurd because here you can see a civilian from a passenger car talking to an enemy armored division as if they are next door neighbors and drank together last friday, these same guys are expected to, in theory, kill one another the moment their tank gets fuel.

A Ukrainian citizen asks whether the Russian infantry men need a "ride" back to Moscow after their tank ran out of fuel for whatever reason.
When people that are so ethnically and genetically close wage war it becomes absurd because here you can see a civilian from a passenger car talking to an enemy armored division as if they are next door neighbors and drank together last friday, these same guys are expected to, in theory, kill one another the moment their tank gets fuel.

The Russian soldiers sounded quite sincere when they replied " to Kyiv? F**k no!
I am wondering if the whole column ran out of fuel?
You are a sitting duck in a tank with no fuel...

 

[Office_Shredder]

I believe US has approx 200 missiles there. Germany definitely has some

Source? I think they have bombs, but bombs are not missiles. In particular, you can shoot down planes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing

After the Soviet Union collapsed, the nuclear weapon types shared within NATO were reduced to tactical nuclear bombs deployed by Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA).[3]

I mean, I guess some countries have the technical capability of shooting down a missile but I bet they would rather go for a plane.

 

[fresh_42]

Source? I think they have bombs, but bombs are not missiles. In particular, you can shoot down planes.

Current news: Germany sends Ukraine 500 stinger.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik...nger-raketen-und-weitere-waffen-17836825.html

 

[Jarvis323]

This picture says a lot.

 

[Klystron]

This is somewhat similar as with USA and Cuba, only Ukraine is much closer to Russia than Cuba is to US but we cannot say US did not try to overthrow the communists in Cuba, just unsuccessfully

Not sure what you meant by that, but the overthrow of Baptista was not of Soviet origins.

Correct. Depending on political persuasion, 1950's era American press regarded the Cuban revolutionaries as heroes after overthrowing brutal dictator Fulgencia Bautista. While being feted in the US following victory, Ernesto 'Che' Guevara and the Castro brothers surprised many erstwhile supporters by expressing essentially communist/Marxist ideas concerning governance and economics.

In particular they regarded the Church as protectors and enablers of fascist dictators such as Generalissimo Franco in Spain and strongmen throughout Latin America, keeping poor workers enslaved by ignorance and superstition. Religion and politics remain verboten topics on PF but I wished to clarify this issue following numerous references to Cuba in this thread.

Following Vatican II reforms circa1962, many believers embraced the revolutionary fervor to improve inherent societal inequalities while remaining vague concerning atheism, poverty and the need to separate church and state. This ability to simultaneously hold divergent views; e.g., 'Christian Marxists', remains a hallmark of religion not required by science.

 

[WWGD]

May be, but we're not singing Imagine here. Russia wants a buffer zone, and the question is, do we need to be pushing to put NATO troops in every single country in the region? Or would an agreement for their independence and peace be sufficient? Especially since we could always sign them up anyway if Russia doesn't keep to the agreement, and not even feel guilty about it. The worst that could happen is that Russia could invade the "buffer" countries while they're defenseless -- and that differs from the current situation how exactly?

I don't see any pushing. It is these countries themselves who asked to become part of Nato/EU. Why did they ask? Anyone force them/pressure them?

 

[fresh_42]

I don't see any pushing. It is these countries themselves who asked to become part of Nato/EU. Why did they ask? Anyone force them/pressure them?

Yep. Russia.

 

[WWGD]

Yep. Russia.

Ok, but we keep looping over this. Can we settle it for good?

 

[morrobay]

All these arguments about about Russia needing some kind of buffer region to protect itself from invasion from other countries is BS subterfuge to rationalize their (Putin's actually) expansionist dreams.

Says someone with a Western analytical viewpoint. While I agree here. This is about Putin's view. Whether or not he imagines that being surrounded by armed NATO countries is a kinetic threat, for sure it is a problem for someone who has never gotten over the dismantling of the USSR.

 

[WWGD]

Says someone with a Western analytical viewpoint. While I agree here. This is about Putin's view. Whether or not he imagines that being surrounded by armed NATO countries is a kinetic threat, for sure it is a problem for someone who has never gotten over the dismantling of the USSR.View attachment 297650

Good deal. We were talking anout the band " 'The Eagles' a while back, and I gaffed in claiming their only hit was ' Hotel California '. You just reminded me of another Eagles song, devoted to Putin : " Get Over It".
Edit: Enough of " Trying to Understand Him". He chose to become a world leader, has the power to destroy the world. Have him grow up , go to therapy or drop out and let an adult become president.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Current news: Germany sends Ukraine 500 stinger.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik...nger-raketen-und-weitere-waffen-17836825.html

We were definitely only talking about nuclear weapons when I said there were only bombs lol.

 

[DennisN]

What was the source of the crisis, to recall? In 2013, the negotiations were for EU association treaty. EU was pressuring Ukraine for a lot of concessions in Ukraine domestic politics as a price for EU associations. While Russia pressured Ukraine to pick Russia over Ukraine. In November 2013, Yanukovych picked the Russian terms... and Euromaidan followed. In three months, Yanukovych was overthrown by domestic violent uprising, inside his term... Russia perceives the action of EU in 2013...2014 as inciting internal subversion. And acts threatened.

I don't know if somebody else has mentioned this in this thread before, but one of Russias ambitions has been to establish a Eurasian counterpart to EU:

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU):

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an economic union of post-Soviet states located in Eastern Europe, Western Asia and Central Asia. The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union was signed on 29 May 2014 by the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and came into force on 1 January 2015. Treaties aiming for Armenia's and Kyrgyzstan's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union were signed on 9 October and 23 December 2014, respectively. Armenia's accession treaty came into force on 2 January 2015. Kyrgyzstan's accession treaty came into effect on 6 August 2015. Kyrgyzstan participated in the EAEU from the day of its establishment as an acceding state.

Strangely enough, I haven't heard this mentioned at all in the news lately.

Quote from Wikipedia - Eurasian Economic Community (2000–2014) :

A Treaty on a Single Economic Space by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine was signed in 2003 and ratified in 2004, but the process was stalled after the Orange revolution [in Ukraine].

(my boldings)

 

[geordief]

I am wondering how long the Ukranians can keep using the internet?

Can the Russo- Soviets not take down that infrastructure quite easily? ( not hoping to give them advice on how to do it )

 

[Oldman too]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-swift/index.html

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I am wondering how long the Ukranians can keep using the internet?

Can the Russo- Soviets not take down that infrastructure quite easily? ( not hoping to give them advice on how to do it )

Elon Musk has just activated Starlink Service for all of Ukraine and is activating more terminals.

 

[geordief]

Elon Musk has just activated Starlink Service for all of Ukraine and is activating more terminals.

So that is secure ?
It seems to me a big deal if so.

 

[Oldman too]

So that is secure ?
It seems to me a big deal if so.

All I could find is this somewhat relevant "blog", not sure of accuracy but it is an interesting conversation.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archi...space-agency-launches-hackable-satellite.html

"Secure"... that's a loaded title these days.

 

[geordief]

All I could find is this somewhat relevant "blog", not sure of accuracy but it is an interesting conversation.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archi...space-agency-launches-hackable-satellite.html

"Secure"... that's a loaded title these days.

Yes ,I didn't mean "was it hackable".

I was just asking if it could be blocked.Would the users be secure in the ability to keep using the service or could this invading force cut it off at source somehow?

 

[Oldman too]

Yes ,I didn't mean "was it hackable".

I was just asking if it could be blocked.Would the users be secure in the ability to keep using the service or could this invading force cut it off at source somehow?

First you must realize, I'm no authority on this, but basically parroting the bot, "I found this on the web". Seriously though, I believe with a little (or a lot, as in Solar Winds) work, any code written can be "hacked".

The piece mentioned https://www.esa.int/Applications/Te...pplications/Reprogrammable_satellite_launched does say,
"The satellite can detect and characterize any rogue emissions, enabling it to respond dynamically to accidental interference or intentional jamming"
This is a good sign.

Important point, in the interest of "Relevance to thread".
The article from ESA isn't talking about Starlink birds but another system.

 

[artis]

Well , Ukrainians would need to have the radio satellite dish in order to use Elon's starlink so not sure how this benefits them.
If Elon dropped them weapons , fuel and ammunition from the sky now that would be a different topic.

But in all honesty internet and cell phones are and have already changed this war , first of all the amount of information getting out of Ukraine is huge. Ukrainians have more phones and computers and cameras than Iraqi's or Afghans combined + they have a rather OK internet infrastructure so a lot of information is escaping, many of them livestream from Facebook while bombs are dropping in the background, that is something new in the history of the world.

Also their guerilla type army men use this to tag Russian troop locations much like one would tag a police car with a radar gun on a highway in Waze.

PS. Personally I think using Facebook to communicate with other soldiers about enemy troops and safe hideouts is the only meaningful use of Facebook...
Finally Zuckeberg's media invention has some positive aspect to it,

 

[morrobay]

Chechens - Bad News https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSeTurNpu/.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

So that is secure ?
It seems to me a big deal if so.

We will see. Numerous companies are offering free VPN in addition to the free Starlink Service.

International hackers are winning out right now and committed to helping Ukraine. Russian TV channels are being replaced by real news flashes and disruptions. I suspect that photos of prisoners of war will be placed on there soon as well. Radio channels are being logged and disrupting lines of communication with the Ukrainian National Anthem. Of course, all Russian government websites are constantly being shot down. It seems very disorganized so far, with some groups hacking cameras near the borders of Russia and it’s a free for all.

They will have the essentials to get through this. Generators and solar energy options can be delivered.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

PS. Personally I think using Facebook to communicate with other soldiers about enemy troops and safe hideouts is the only meaningful use of Facebook...
Finally Zuckeberg's media invention has some positive aspect to it,

Facebook has issued a warning that all EU users may lose access to their services soon, on account of threats from Russia today. Apple may be releasing more measures in the coming days. Google is scrambling to see how they can help.

Videos of captured Russian soldiers are being uploaded on most social media platforms. This is the most grotesque that I’ve encountered thus far- this one should have not been uploaded in this manner. There are also many fakes being planted. A hotline is being setup so that families can identify and arrange a pick up of the bodies of near 3000 Russian soldiers that have been killed. The compassion that Ukrainians are showing their enemy is astounding and humbling.

 

[artis]

Let me give some numbers here for food of thought (the accuracy of the current numbers is still debatable but taken into context of all else should be a indication)

So let's compare the current war in simple terms to the Soviet- Afghan war from 1979-1989.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

Arguably Afghanistan was a harder target (given subsequent military powers have failed there with much larger investment both in terms of money, weapons, and count of soldiers)
Soviets lost about 15 000 soldiers there while the Mujahideen lost about 56 000, sure enough there were other losses and the war in length was about 10 years total but let's not focus on the nuances for now.

So keep in mind the 15 000 figure of loss from the Soviet side and the 56 000 from Afghan,

If we are to believe the numbers coming out of Ukraine now after only 4 days of war (4 days !)
then
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/russia-ukraine-invasion-casualties-death-toll

Ukrainian officials said earlier that more than 3,500 Russian soldiers have been killed.

I hear similar numbers locally coming from Ukraine.
It also seems the advancement to capture Kyiv and other major cities has not yet resulted in the capturing of those cities , this makes me think, that either

1) The Russian army since the end of the USSR has forgotten from which end of the rifle the bullet comes out...
2) Ukrainians are overestimating by orders of magnitude (lying) to keep their spirits up
3) Russians so far have sent their youngest and weakest soldiers to purely use them as "meat" to weaken the Ukrainian forces (there is some evidence for that, most of the captured soldiers in the videos are very young, 18-20 years) It wouldn't be the first time Russia uses such a tactic in war.
4) Ukrainians for some reason are better equipped, and readier than Afghans were (in theory and in statistics this should be the case) but then it is hard to explain why US had such a hard time in Afghanistan and Iraq, because I would find it hard to believe that US would lose to Ukraine in a war, but it seems Ukraine is tougher than Iraq and Afghanistan , anyway things don't make much sense the way I see them now.
5) Some form and mix of the above

Ultimately we will have to see but I have a hard time believing this is all Putin has given he has prepared for years and calculated his options. If anything failure for him is his own backyard is not an option that we all know and he does best.