Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

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In summary, the Munich Agreement was an agreement between the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom that divided Czechoslovakia into the Soviet Union and the United States.
  • #701
That's some air defense
Kind of waste to burn that 10+ million price equipment, but it's unlikely to be utilized.
 
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  • #702
Rive said:
That's some air defense
Kind of waste to burn that 10+ million price equipment, but it's unlikely to be utilized.
Who says they will burn it? The ones that got burned were because active fighting was going on, the ones that are deserted seem to be taken to safe locations for possible further use, at least twitter is full of photos where Ukrainian fighters have gathered some Russian equipment in their secure fighting locations. I mean Ukraine needs any weapon they can get their hands on.

Meanwhile city bombing continues

 
  • #703
An interesting read on Russia's logistical issues and the effects of sanctions on their war effort.
Russia’s Infamy
 
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  • #704
artis said:
I mean Ukraine needs any weapon they can get their hands on.
That one is a sophisticated stuff, requires qualified crew. The list of countries who has it suggests that there will be no crew in Ukraine who could use it properly.
I don't think that the operation manual would be available on the Internet either, but who knows...

Of course, putting it up to Ebay may be considered an option ... :wink:

BBC (and some more sites) are now blocked in Russia.
At least, officially.



The price of Chinese support - read the first comment!
 
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  • #705
Ukraine receives (or has been) most of its nuclear services and nuclear fuel from Russia, but is reducing this dependence by buying fuel from Westinghouse.

In 2021 Westinghouse was contracted to finish building a new reactor at Khmelnitsky using AP1000 components from an aborted US project.

The government is looking to the West for both technology and investment in its nuclear plants. Westinghouse has an agreement to build four AP1000 reactors at established sites.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/ukraine.aspx

The US and EU have been working with Ukraine to become independent from Russia, and NATO membership would guarantee that independence.

Apparently, since his call with French president Emmanuel Macron, Putin has stated his intent to take control of all of Ukraine. Well, if that is so, then what?
 
  • #706
Astronuc said:
Well, if that is so, then what?
Incorporation. This is the only exit strategy he has. USSR 2.0
 
  • #707
fresh_42 said:
It is his Cold War mind setup that let him dream to become the greatest Czar in Russian history by reinstalling the borders of the Soviet Union. F60.0.
Sure, as you did, I had heard that he reminisced on that, but as we all do, we have our wishes that are far-fetched.
But an impossible scenario to implement as he would be well aware.
Western companies were allowed to set up and sell products within Russia, exports also were to western countries. Not really the USSR way back when.
Seems as if Western opinion is a bit arrogant in a opinion.
 
  • #708
256bits said:
Not really the USSR way back when.
It will be. Read this in 10 years from now again.
 
  • #709
phinds said:
What does this mean?
I also don't understand but I'm thankful this discussion has been started. We need to be worried not just about the 'worst case' scenario but the disaster that's happening right now as we watch in a state of paralysed horror. Isn't there some logic somewhere that says this war must stop and it must stop right now. How can we have an entire nation of 44 million people being pulverized the way we're seeing ? I think yes, there is an element of complete craziness about it. Russians and Ukrainians are just too important a part of the world's social fabric to permit this tragedy to unfold any further. What can we do ??
 
  • #710
fresh_42 said:
Incorporation. This is the only exit strategy he has. USSR 2.0
Well, yes, that part would be obvious - Ukraine would become a province of Russia.

I was thinking more along the lines of how the rest of the world would react to Russia taking over another country, and in theory, using the resources to become even stronger. Ukraine apparently supplies a lot of vegetable oil to the global market, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_oil#Production
 
  • #711
fresh_42 said:
Incorporation. This is the only exit strategy he has. USSR 2.0
Except, that along the actual events it's not realistic. He has completely trapped himself in a situation where he cannot advance, cannot retreat, cannot stay.
 
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  • #712
Astronuc said:
Well, yes, that part would be obvious - Ukraine would become a province of Russia.
Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it, and those who do study history are doomed to stand by while all others repeat it.

And if Ukraine will be part of Russia, then we have again a Cold War scenario. A setup Putin has learned from very early on. Media - check, police - check, courts - check, military - check, western borders (booting). The rest (economy returning to business as usual) will turn on to "normal" by the years.

Astronuc said:
I was thinking more along the lines of how the rest of the world would react to Russia taking over another country, and in theory, using the resources to become even stronger. Ukraine apparently supplies a lot of vegetable oil to the global market, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_oil#Production
Not only that. Ukraine is also Europe's granary.

The only question to me is, how many people will make their way out before the borders will be closed.
 
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  • #713
fresh_42 said:
Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it, and those who do study history are doomed to stand by while all others repeat it.
Sooooo true. So sadly true :frown:

By the way, as KGB being an absolutely opportunistic and calculative 'species': I would bet that there is a think tank there already mulling over the possibility to orchestrate an 'authentic' coup d'etat led by Navalnij...
 
  • #714
Rive said:
By the way, as KGB being an absolutely opportunistic and calculative 'species': I would bet that there is a think tank there already mulling over the possibility to orchestrate an 'authentic' coup d'etat led by Navalnij...
Yes. This is similar ridiculous as Putin's repeated justification of denazification of Ukraine. I mean, what' next? Denazification of all regions where Russians live in Europe? Plus the now Ukrainian and then Russian refugees? As crazy as it sounds, it cannot be said what's inside the brain of a crazy (and criminal) person.
 
  • #715
Astronuc said:
Well, yes, that part would be obvious - Ukraine would become a province of Russia.
Ukraine has always been province of Russia!
 
  • #716
Vanadium 50 said:
Ukraine has always been province of Russia!
Nope. It started the other way round.
 
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  • #717
fresh_42 said:
This is similar ridiculous as Putin's repeated justification of denazification of Ukraine. I mean, what' next?
With Putin stuck in the mud they need to find somebody with credibility towards the 'west' and determine the price they are willing to pay.
Navalnij might be one candidate, and even the thought that the KGB won't participate is ridiculous. I mean, this is still Russia...
So a Navalnij-fronted, KGB driven coup might seem absurd - it is absurd! -, but it's still not off the table.
 
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  • #718
I strongly suspect that once the fog of war clears and it is viewed objectively, this conflict will look very different to the way it is (pretty much uniformly) being portrayed right now.
That might take months, or years to come about.
 
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  • #719
Th NY Times has an article "The Roots of the Ukraine War: How the Crisis Developed"
https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html
I haven't read it yet, so I don't know how complete it is.

Some background from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace from June 2019
https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254

Primakov mentored Putin and paved the way for the current situation
https://www.rferl.org/a/putins-godfather/27100746.html
 
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  • #720
rsk said:
I strongly suspect that once the fog of war clears and it is viewed objectively, this conflict will look very different to the way it is (pretty much uniformly) being portrayed right now.
That might take months, or years to come about.
Is that suspicion just a guess or is it based on any sort of evidence? And in what way might it look different?

From a narrow interpretation the statement is trivially true, but it seems to imply the overall judgement is wrong, not just the nuts and bolts which we obviously can only have a limited view of.
 
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  • #721
Well it seems this war was long in the making, not just the info that China was consulted with the best time to start invasion but it seems Putin has somewhat "outplayed" western investors.
The idea is simple as I understand. You have large companies (oil, gas, etc) infrastructure like Yamal gas terminal. You funded the projects with western investment (partly), then you start a bloody war and as a logical consequence west puts heavy sanctions, as a result your money falls in value and investors run to "flush" and drop their assets to avoid further losses. Now you yourself buy back the shares but at a small fraction of what they actually are worth if there was no war. Then in the future you have 100% shares of your own infrastructure and if west again buys your oil, gas all profits stay home.
Seems like a targeted move not a coincidence. +Ukraine has gas and oil resources and good access to Europe, this has to be at least some part of the overall strategy

https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...buying-russian-shares-source-says-2022-03-01/

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...g-to-offload-russian-assets-have-a-tough-task
In an ironic twist, Russian investors could turn out to be the most obvious buyers for some assets.

What do others think, maybe someone with economics experience, how does this look?
 
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  • #722

There is a translation among the first comments.
 
  • #723
russ_watters said:
From a narrow interpretation the statement is trivially true, but it seems to imply the overall judgement is wrong, not just the nuts and bolts which we obviously can only have a limited view of.
Putin's propaganda is everywhere.
 
  • #724
artis said:
Well it seems this war was long in the making
That was my point. Ukraine has had seven years to accept the factual truth. There was no way to regain neither Crimea nor the eastern two oblasts. They should have - as painful it might have been - written them off, i.e. given them of Russia, resp. acknowledged their independence. The next day after I would have (secretly) applied for EU and NATO membership. Maybe, a year after, officially, after a massive military gear up.

This now is the worst of all outcomes for Ukranians.
 
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  • #725
fresh_42 said:
Putin's propaganda is everywhere.
Yeah, but at least from Putin's mouth it's clearer. We don't have to read between the lines of innuendo with him.

It's ironic that some here were criticized for a Goodwin's Law violation earlier in the thread by making comparisons to 1938, when Putin's now claiming that he's literally fighting the Nazis again.
 
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  • #726
fresh_42 said:
That was my point. Ukraine has had seven years to accept the factual truth. There was no way to regain neither Crimea nor the eastern two oblasts. They should have - as painful it might have been - written them off, i.e. given them of Russia, resp. acknowledged their independence. The next day after I would have (secretly) applied for EU and NATO membership. Maybe, a year after, officially, after a massive military gear up.

This now is the worst of all outcomes for Ukranians.
The problem with NATO is that the whole concept should have been completely re-purpoused immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Who then was the 'enemy' Nato was supposed to counter - it should have been replaced with a "Pan-European" security agency. Remember at that point in time Russia itself (under Yeltsin) wanted to join the EU but (I believe) was dissuaded from doing so by the US who were a bit concerned about a rival "United States of Europe". Personally I think a huge opportunity was missed at that point in time - a complete restoration of the Western Roman Empire albeit as a grouping of autonomous countries rather than an "Empire" as such.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/beyond-the-g8-yeltsin-sees-his-country-in-the-eu-1.55254
 
  • #727
There is no upside to making small lies. I believe it is this lesson that is most difficult for rational humans to digest. Successful dictators (as well as other "more moral" proselytizers) understand this viscerally..
 
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  • #728
neilparker62 said:
The problem with NATO is that the whole concept should have been completely re-purpoused immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union.
I disagree. NATO is obviously important in case an unpredictable idiot is in charge of one of the most powerful military strike forces. And, yes, this is equally true in the other direction as we had to learn. It makes me really worry, that there is no safety mechanism in place to stop idiots from starting a potential nuclear war.
 
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  • #729
I didn't say we should have dispensed with NATO. I said we should have re-purpoused it instead of making Russia into the ongoing "bogey-man" of Europe. In a sense one can argue we've created our own worst nightmare. Not that I'm offering any excuses for Mr Putin throwing his (very dangerous) toys but we have to find a way out of this mess and find it quickly.
 
  • #730
neilparker62 said:
The problem with NATO is that the whole concept should have been completely re-purpoused immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Who then was the 'enemy' Nato was supposed to counter - it should have been replaced with a "Pan-European" security agency. Remember at that point in time Russia itself (under Yeltsin) wanted to join the EU but (I believe) was dissuaded from doing so by the US who were a bit concerned about a rival "United States of Europe". Personally I think a huge opportunity was missed at that point in time - a complete restoration of the Western Roman Empire albeit as a grouping of autonomous countries rather than an "Empire" as such.
It's tough to say. NATO let Germany in some time after WWII after the decided the threat was no longer present. Was there ever a time when we accepted the threat from the USSR->Russia was no longer present? Or could the threat have been eliminated by the act of accepting them into NATO/EU? It's difficult to know, but as we see with the UN if you let them in and you're wrong it is a nightmare having a fox in the henhouse.
 
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  • #731
russ_watters said:
It's ironic that some here were criticized for a Goodwin's Law violation earlier in the thread by making comparisons to 1938, when Putin's now claiming that he's literally fighting the Nazis again.
They also played the "Ukraine is preparing to build nuclear weapons" card. This propaganda is so ridiculous to us, but it sells at home. You could put Lawrow directly on a stage and you would get a first-class comedy program. Unfortunately, children are dying in the meantime!
 
  • #732
artis said:
Some Ukrainians have gotten hold of some Russian "toys"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

Interesting article on the mobile Panstir system that also displays potential weaknesses or design tradeoffs.

Combining fire control radar and visual tracking, AAA (anti-aircraft artillery) and surface to air missiles, transport vehicle, and electrical generators (assumed) appears to be a logical application of modular theory yet fraught with contradictions demonstrated by this picture. Likely these systems deploy in pairs with ability to trade supplies and parts.

As stated correctly in the article, these systems fulfill the mission to defend larger air interdiction systems both fixed and mobile. Placing these modules on a single vehicle provides advantages including rapid deployment, looking good on parade and ostensibly reducing number of trained crews but at serious cost.

The disabled transport, a frequent known problem, negates effectiveness of the entire air interdiction mission. A single enemy shrike anti-radiation missile or hand launched RPG panzer Faust closes the show.
 
  • #733
russ_watters said:
It's tough to say. NATO let Germany in some time after WWII after the decided the threat was no longer present. Was there ever a time when we accepted the threat from the USSR->Russia was no longer present? Or could the threat have been eliminated by the act of accepting them into NATO/EU? It's difficult to know, but as we see with the UN if you let them in and you're wrong it is a nightmare having a fox in the henhouse.
Well yes - I think that's the point of what I'm saying. Perhaps a bit over optimistic but I would hope a democratic Russia would not have ended up being a "fox in the hen-house" as you put it. We have to try and create a bigger vision (eg Mars terraforming) for all to work towards - co-operation in space endeavours with ISS etc was definitely taking us in the right direction until Mr Putin's Ukraine debacle threw a massive spanner in the works.
 
  • #734
Here is a longer interview with the former Russian diplomat Andrei Kozyrev.
(I post it in addition to my previous post with two other interviews)

Former Russian diplomat says Russia will not stop with Ukraine | Extended interview (ABC 10, Feb 27, 2022)
 
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  • #735
We are already in a position to hope for someone to stop Putin. Russia isn't the problem, a wanna-be-Czar is.
 
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