Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[StevieTNZ]

'It's coming' - US warns of Russian cyberattacks amid Ukraine war​

US President Joe Biden on Monday urged US companies to make sure their digital doors are locked tight because of “evolving intelligence” that Russia is considering launching cyberattacks against critical infrastructure targets as the war in Ukraine continues.

Addressing corporate CEOs at their quarterly meeting, Biden told the business leaders they have a “patriotic obligation” to harden their systems against such attacks. He said federal assistance is available, should they want it, but that the decision is theirs alone.

Biden said the administration has issued “new warnings that, based on evolving intelligence, Russia may be planning a cyberattack against us. ... The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential, and it's coming."

The president said the federal government is “doing its part” to prepare for an attack and warned the private-sector CEOs that it also is in the national interest that they do the same.

“I would respectfully suggest it’s a patriotic obligation for you to invest as much as you can” in technology to counter cyberattacks, Biden told members of the Business Roundtable. “We’re prepared to help you, as I said, with any tools and expertise we possess, if you’re ready to do that. But it’s your decision as to the steps you’ll take and your responsibility to take them, not ours.”

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/30054...arns-of-russian-cyberattacks-amid-ukraine-war

 

[StevieTNZ]

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reveals 'compromise' he might accept to end invasion​

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed a "compromise" that could end the war with Russia, which has now been dragging on for almost a month.

Speaking to his nation's public broadcaster Suspilne today, Zelenskyy suggested Ukraine could live with not seeking Nato membership.

"Nato should either say now that they are accepting us, or openly say they are not accepting us because they are afraid of Russia. Which is true," he argued.

"And then we need to calm down and say OK, there are Nato member countries that can provide us security guarantees without membership in Nato.

"That is where the compromise exists. That's where the end of the war is."

-- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...t-to-end-invasion/N5BVET3SP5D6TGR2TGYDRRZIK4/

 

[DennisN]

Wow, I just saw a stunning clip from a short interview from 2019 with the Ukrainian Oleksiy Arestovych, apparently before Zelenskyy became elected president of Ukraine.
(I saw it referenced in another video I was looking at).

Mindboggingly accurate prediction. Is/was he just incredibly talented or did he use some ancient magic spell of foresight, one wonders... :)

Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019)


(the original, longer interview is here, but without subtitles)

 

[Klystron]

Just heard on tv:
...
Honni soit qui mal y pense.

Google xlate yields: Shame on anyone who thinks wrong.

Psychology Today says this is meant to humiliate an absolute narcissist. Presumably, sociopaths do not feel shame. Normal people should be proud of our human fallibility.

 

[Filip Larsen]

Seems like the Ukrainians are able to put the Starlink's they got to good use:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/18/elon-musks-starlink-helping-ukraine-win-drone-war/

Must be working too since the Russians "in charge" are whining like a rapist raving about bystanders that keep trying to interfere with his rape while at the same time calling for his rapist buddies to come over to help hold down the victim.

 

[PeroK]

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

1984 was about a global order involving three competing totalitarian powers who were in perpetual war against each other. To reach that scenario would need Russia to overrun all of Europe, the US to be taken over by a right-wing coup, say, and China to make up the third. That said, we have potentially more than three with the Islamic world on the one hand, and India transforming into a Hindu dictatorship.

Whether perpertual war is needed or not, that would be the end of personal liberty and all of humanity would live under a dictatorship of one sort or another.

And government of the people, for the people, by the people will have perished from the Earth.

 

[artis]

Wow, I just saw a stunning clip from a short interview from 2019 with the Ukrainian Oleksiy Arestovych, apparently before Zelenskyy became elected president of Ukraine.
(I saw it referenced in another video I was looking at).

Mindboggingly accurate prediction. Is/was he just incredibly talented or did he use some ancient magic spell of foresight, one wonders... :)

Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019)


(the original, longer interview is here, but without subtitles)

I hate to break it to you, but even seeing the full video some weeks ago when all of this started and videos like that were suddenly jumping up through the algorithms in youtube, it wasn't that big of a surprise here.
The west I believe refused to believe mostly that anything like this would happen till the last moment , here on the other hands most of our local experts and civilians alike (those that follow Russia more closely) knew this was imminent.
The simple reason is this, there was no way Kremlin would have allowed the "fall" of Ukraine into EU or NATO.
Zelensky pre war was basically doing just that , constantly going to places and asking when they will take them into NATO etc.
Then when the Russians started their army "training" near the border people started packing their 72h bags, why? Because the previous military drills "zapad"happened in late summer, this time they started moving in troops around Xmas, packed them up right through New year and then finally moved in in February, probably would have sooner but it seems Xi Jinping kindly asked to not destroy his TV time during the Olympics.

See here for example
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/31/politics/biden-volodymyr-zelensky-call-ukraine/index.html

I think Putin was rather open about his plans before invasion,

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrai...elensky-biden-told-him-to-prepare-for-impact/

senior Ukrainian official as saying that Zelensky received dire warnings from Biden that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is now “virtually certain” once the ground freezes and that Kyiv needs to “prepare for impact.”

 

[artis]

 

[DennisN]

I read this comment on a youtube video:

"
– How do you build a small army?
– Start with a large one and invade Ukraine.
"

 

[artis]

Well speaking in stock exchange terminology it seems to me that Russia thought Ukraine to be on it's "way out" and decided to "short sell" it, most of the world also didn't think much of Ukraine's stock.
Then Ukrainians took matters in their own hands and "short squeezed" their stock causing a cascade of everyone else updating Ukraine's value in their eyes.

Now Ukraine might turn into Kremlin's "GameStop"...

 

[fluidistic]

Plus the fact, that the mean distance between Putin and even his faithful dog is meanwhile 10 meters and counting.View attachment 298738The other guy lived in a dirt hole at the end of the world, not in a military compound surrounded by 20,000,000 people.

This is just for the show. Putin was very close, handshaking without any facemask the president of Argentina a few days before the invasion, just google Alberto fernandez putin. Granted that president was vaccinated by Sputnik and had gotten covid, it doesn't change the fact that the same treatment was not done with Macron like one or two days later, who was also vaccinated and had gotten Covid as well. Just for the show.

 

[artis]

This is just for the show. Putin was very close, handshaking without any facemask the president of Argentina a few days before the invasion, just google Alberto fernandez putin. Granted that president was vaccinated by Sputnik and had gotten covid, it doesn't change the fact that the same treatment was not done with Macron like one or two days later, who was also vaccinated and had gotten Covid as well. Just for the show.

Exactly, and Putin has probably the best medical care available that money and authority can buy so I too am skeptical of the idea that somehow Putin got so scared of Covid that his hiding in a bunker since early 2020.

What is also for show with him is how he has always been "late" to meetings with leaders he despises, I read on average they have waited on him for hours. Then he shows up with a huge hound to meet Merkel because he knows she is afraid of large dogs. etc the list goes on

I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up to a nuclear disarmament meeting with a original replica of the "Tsar bomb" being dragged along on a rolling frame by his staff

 

[Astronuc]

A side-show to Ukraine, but if Russia controls Ukraine, it would put pressure on EU and global markets.

Fortune (March 21) - Fertilizer prices just hit a record high sparking fears of global starvation and the worst food insecurity level since World War II
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-prices-just-hit-record-174439996.html

Farmers worldwide are feeling the sting of sanctions, as the Ukraine War has sent fertilizer prices soaring to new all-time highs, prompting concerns over a global food shortage.

Fertilizer prices last week were nearly 10% higher than the week before according to Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index, the highest price point ever recorded. Prices are now 40% higher than a month ago, before the invasion of Ukraine.

The surge in fertilizer prices reveals how dependent many of the world's farms are on Russian exports. Countries already afflicted by food insecurity now risk further production bottlenecks and food shortages at the worst possible time.

 

[pinball1970]

A side-show to Ukraine, but if Russia controls Ukraine, it would put pressure on EU and global markets.

Fortune (March 21) - Fertilizer prices just hit a record high sparking fears of global starvation and the worst food insecurity level since World War II
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-prices-just-hit-record-174439996.html

There is China to consider regarding Economic dependency also.

https://www.reuters.com/business/pressed-choose-sides-ukraine-china-trade-favors-west-2022-03-21/

 

[DennisN]

A geography lesson :

 

[pinball1970]

A keen plane spotter a friend of a friend as spotted extensive manoeuvres of fighter jets in the lake district…
Could be part of the normal yearly timetable or they could have added a few recently.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...flying-training-timetable-14-to-18-march-2022

USA is on DEFCOM level 3 apparently

UK threat level is “substantial” but that is relating to terror is my understanding, our war readiness is via R number, R0 being immediate readiness

Interesting article from November 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...y-for-war-with-russia-says-armed-forces-chief

 

[pinball1970]

Hyde pub Greater Manchester (now)
Image below. We get it, even us northerners.
There was a demo Manchester center too last Saturday. A Ukraine flag on the Queen Victoria statue. Manchester Ukrainian children. Stop the war.
You cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Whoever said that was not aware of Twitter YouTube and Instagram but I think his sentiment would be far stronger had he known.

 

[Rive]

Just a stray thought. Belarus may be closer to a coup than Russia.

 

[bob012345]

Just a stray thought. Belarus may be closer to a coup than Russia.

Perhaps, as its government moves closer to direct involvement in Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...elarus-war-citizens-dont-want-putin-sanctions

 

[bob012345]

Ukraine war may lead to a possible global famine?

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu...cedent-even-close-to-this-since-world-war-ii/

 

[artis]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

 

[artis]

Meanwhile in Russia TV, threats to level most of Europe if need be, with English subtitles

 

[phinds]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

This reminds me of one of the first jokes told by Yakov Smirnoff, the Russian ** standup comic told when he first immigrated to America.

America is such a great country. You have American Express --- "Don't leave home without it."

In Russia, we have Russian Express
"Don't leave home."

**EDIT: He was actually from Ukraine but this was back before the wall fell and it was part of the Soviet Union

 

[artis]

It seems likely due to sanctions some heavy machinery plants like tank factories have run out of some spares in Russia. Now it might just give them more incentive to make everything "in house" as they did back in the USSR, but at least for now the hit can be felt
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-largest-tank-manufacturer-may-132623968.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-unable-make-new-tanks-sanctions-ukraine-claim-2022-3

 

[bob012345]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

The Big Vlad: two rancid beef patties, special military operation sauce, some random junk on a bun with a sesame seed (1).

The meal deal: The Big Vlad, flies and diluted Vodka.

 

[artis]

The Big Vlad: two rancid beef patties, special military operation sauce, some random junk on a bun with a sesame seed

And to stay true to current Russian military logistics , the whole meal doesn't arrive in time, is missing some ingredients and if you dare to complain to the kitchen then you get 15 years in toilet.

Kremlin's opposition gets a separate menu, main item "Gulag" and it's free - "on the house"
Make Catherine the Great again...

 

[fresh_42]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

I always asked myself what the prename of McDonald was. Now, we know. Although, Vania is quite uncommon in Scottland.

 

[berkeman]

Oh my goodness, I just got an e-mail from the St. Jude Hospital organization (who I support annually) about their efforts in this terrible situation. Here is a link to the web version; I will likely send them an extra donation...

https://view.campaigns.stjude.org/?...fe7714b9c1745a67414b28f3a76802d56e3e6491cc540

 

[fresh_42]

Oh my goodness, I just got an e-mail from the St. Jude Hospital organization (who I support annually) about their efforts in this terrible situation. Here is a link to the web version; I will likely send them an extra donation...

https://view.campaigns.stjude.org/?...fe7714b9c1745a67414b28f3a76802d56e3e6491cc540

View attachment 298778

I just (10 minutes ago) read in the news ticker of a news channel that Russians bomb particularly hospitals and doctors' offices. Barbaric. I hope Putin will end up in The Hague.

And it is not only the severely ill children. I have also seen a couple here who organized a shelter for some disabled Ukrainians. It's always the weakest who suffer first and most.

 

[bob012345]

I just (10 minutes ago) read in the news ticker of a news channel that Russians bomb particularly hospitals and doctors' offices. Barbaric. I hope Putin will end up in The Hague.

How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

 

[fresh_42]

How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

With nowadays weapons? 100% intentionally.

 

[berkeman]

How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

Through my EMS training, I have some anti-terrorist training and yes, schools and hospitals are specifically targeted by terrorists. Possibly Putin's training in the KGB is part of his planning and approval of targets...

 

[bob012345]

One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.

 

[fresh_42]

One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.

I'm not so sure. All missiles that has been leftover from USSR went probably to Russia together with the nuclear weapons. And they likely haven't thought about an attack from their former brothers, and certainly not from the west.

 

[bob012345]

According to this document, the U.S. made security agreements with Ukraine. Does the United States have the legal justification to intervene in Ukraine based on this even though Russia has trashed the treaty?

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine-Nuclear-Weapons