Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Fervent Freyja]

Chechens - Bad News https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSeTurNpu/.

They’ll be quaking in their Prada boots.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

3) Russians so far have sent their youngest and weakest soldiers to purely use them as "meat" to weaken the Ukrainian forces (there is some evidence for that, most of the captured soldiers in the videos are very young, 18-20 years) It wouldn't be the first time Russia uses such a tactic in war.

This. The initial plan seemed to try and clear the way for a takeover in Kyiv. They experienced more resistance than expected, but that won’t make a difference.

 

[artis]

Some recent development in video
Before I post the US based sources, here is a Russian youtuber talking about what is said inside Russia unofficially as to why there is such resistance being encountered, english subtitles are available , you can watch,
My short summary of what is said
1) Soldiers given old equipment and young inexperienced soldiers are sent
2) Soldiers having very little incentive and motivation to fight fellow Ukrainians
3)Ukrainians showing fierce resistance
4) There is a curfew In Ukrainian cities and Kyiv at night in order for the fighters to be able to better identify enemy soldiers and insurrectionists dressed in camouflage

 

[artis]

All in all the internet is full of fake news, this morning there were news circulated that the worlds largest natural gas company "Gazprom" financial director committed suicide, but as it turned out, a much lower ranking man committed suicide for unknown reasons.
Thereby I keep the info I'm reading and getting to myself largely because I cannot verify the authenticity for most of it. Conflicting anecdotal accounts from all sides.

But the overall general trend seems to be clear and that is
1) Ukraine is resisting much harder than anyone anticipated (both west and east)
2) Kremlin went for a quick strike but instead of a 1st round "knockout" this will surely be a full 12 round fight
3) Propaganda from both sides , I suspect Ukrainians are overestimating Russian death toll while Kremlin is calling all Ukrainians "fascists" and insurrectionists.
4) Russian state TV seems to have changed the narrative from a Queen "we will rock you" and Abba "The winner takes it all" to a more toned down version of Queen "who wants to live forever" and "the show must go on"A video has surfaced of a Ukrainian team detaining a Russian tank operator and taking him back to Russia by car. Again no one can confirm the authenticity of this, but knowing Ukrainians personally I am certain they are capable of such action and therefore I present this video to you to keep up the spirits, They even make him say "Glory to Ukraine" and "Glory to heroes"
The latter slogan is a popular Russian slogan used once by the Red army

 

[artis]

Ukrainian soldiers attack and seize a Russian military patrol of 4 vehicles in Kharkiv


And here is a joke apparently made by pro Ukrainian "internet fighters", seems like Ukraine is learning from Russia, I hear Ukrainian bloggers and activists waging "internet war" against Kremlin rhetoric, lately my Facebook feed is full of various memes and photos from battlefield with subtitles added to give glory to Ukrainian soldiers

 

[artis]

This morning 27th February around 10:00 ECT, Ukrainian president Zelensky refused an invitation from Kremlin and Belarus to attend a meeting on Belarusian soil to negotiate. It is unclear as of now what exactly the involved parties want to "negotiate" given Russian bombs are falling on Ukraine in the meantime but such an invitation seems to have happened.
Zelensky said he won't attend Belarus especially because they gave their land and support for invasionMy own personal take on this is such that it is possible Kremlin is facing criticism both at home as well as internationally and they might be seeking a potential "deal" to save their skin from too much blowback and are probably seeking Ukraine to officially declare the separatist regions as well as Crimea as Russian land while Russia would supposedly stop the war and pull back their troops to concede Ukrainian freedom which they currently attack.

Or they want to lure him out of Kyiv and simply murder him , one or the other





https://www.france24.com/en/video/2...th-ukraine-in-belarus-armen-georgian-comments

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...ts-belarus-as-location-for-talks-with-russia/

 

[DennisN]

Or they want to lure him out of Kyiv and simply murder him

That was my first thought when I read about the Russia suggestion for a peace talk in Belarus.

 

[artis]

Let me give some fighting insights, videos as of recently from the ground.
Russians are deploying TOS-1 systems ,a thermobaric missile launcher mounted on a T72 battle tank
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1

Meanwhile in this link you can see Ukrainian forces fighting fierce street battles and seizing some Russian weaponry and vehicles
https://www.santa.lv/raksts/aktuali/harkova-okupanti-pamet-armijas-tehniku-un-metas-begt-48009/

Ukraine seems to get some shipments of help from European allies and NATO, I suppose these shipments are unofficial as NATO would probably wish to stay neutral so far


Ukrainian soldiers killed a bunch of Russian troops near Kyiv, video shows them seizing weapons and even army boots from a dead Russian soldier, can't blame em it's cold here still and the dead soldier won't need them anyway
Arguably Russia might also be interested in Ukrainian fossil fuel reserves and proximity to Europe
Here is a article about how Ukraine once sought to use their own resources
https://www.reuters.com/article/shell-chevron-ukraine-idUSL5E8GBAE020120511

Ukraine has Europe’s third-largest shale gas reserves at 42 trillion cubic feet (1.2 trillion cubic metres), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, behind France and Norway.

Some unconfirmed reports from within Russia that some "professional army" soldiers , the ones that get paid , have refused to go to fight in Ukraine.
But I cannot verify this information just that it comes from multiple Russian sources.

 

[artis]

Seems like the western help to Uukraine even as small as it was and much of it late is still doing it's job in the hands of well organized and most importantly very fanatic fighters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-troops-prepare-threat-Russian-invasion.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...tary-equipment-ukraine-government-2022-02-18/

The US made Javelins seem to already come in handy for the Ukrainians
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...itary-equipment-munitions-ukraine-2022-01-25/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-turkey-than-disclosed-and-angers-russia

 

[Fervent Freyja]

That was my first thought when I read about the Russia suggestion for a peace talk in Belarus.

The rationale that we are witnessing across the board is disturbing. The UN Security Council actually allowed a charged party to vote in their own trial, which halted further action. That’s fine and dandy, because this allowance can be used again if another permanent party is brought into question in the future. Tit for tat.

Lukashenko is evidently a liar. On the 17th he was filmed scolding an American reporter for questioning the “military exercises” going on. He told him that we’ve wasted a billion dollars for nothing… Told him that he wasn’t in Canada or Mexico and essentially told him to mind his own business. Now, he will lose a billion plus on account of his greed and cowardice. There’s a woman trying to run a coup on him at the moment.

 

[Frabjous]

In case anyone is wondering why it is Kyiv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KyivNotKiev

 

[econreader]

I don't think we need to guess what Putin's motivation is, because he's truthful where it matters. Facts don't matter to him, what's important is what he wants. He's told us, and we should believe him: He wants the USSR/Russian Empire back and Ukraine was part of them. That's it. Everything else is tangential or noise.

I would like to ask you to give a quote from any public statements made by Putin saying that. Because I don't think you will find one.

 

[artis]

I would like to ask you to give a quote from any public statements made by Putin saying that. Because I don't think you will find one.

Well he doesn't say it directly as you would like to hear it but that is because he is a world leader and a former agent, he speaks in parallels

 

[artis]

 

[econreader]

Well he doesn't say it directly as you would like to hear it but that is because he is a world leader and a former agent, he speaks in parallels

Well he is not saying what you attribute to him. To make it clear, here is an example. I think everyone will agree that WWII was a major geopolitical catastrophe for the world, but this doesn't imply that anyone wants to go back to 1938 and restore the British Empire or Nazi Germany.

 

[Mike S.]

That was my first thought when I read about the Russia suggestion for a peace talk in Belarus.

In case anyone's forgotten Raman Pratasevich: Belarus literally delivered a bomb threat against an airplane flying over, then forced it down with fighter jets, just to put a random media critic in jail. It also doesn't help that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and announced repeatedly that they were just doing military exercises before invading with no pretext but claims that Ukraine was always theirs due to Putin's direct line of succession from the Varangian prince Rurik. (I may have made up the last part, but it makes more sense than any other explanation I've heard)

This lack of credibility on their part ought to go beyond simple self-preservation. If auditors go over the assets of two companies, one of which holds land deeds and bonds and licenses and intellectual property in Russia, and the other holding a couple of sheets that say "DEED to Siberia" scribbled on construction paper with a crayon, both sets of assets should be assessed with precisely the same value. I know S&P reduced their credit rating to "Junk" ... that's a start.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I would like to ask you to give a quote from any public statements made by Putin saying that. Because I don't think you will find one.

This is basically a fact now, no citations or quotes needed. He wants to restore something similar to the Soviet Union and calls for a triune Russian nation to form. Refuses to accept that Ukraine is an independent nation at all.

Here’s some journal links: https://huri.harvard.edu/news/putin-historical-unity
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...ew-ukraine-essay-reflects-imperial-ambitions/

Original link to his emotional essay (website is down at the moment of course): http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Like the obsessive ex husband that steals your car, cancels your insurance and finances, harasses you for years and won’t accept that it’s over. This an insane mentally deranged state. And dangerous. Men just kill women when they won’t go back. All the time. I wouldn’t put total obliteration past him. He is being driven by emotions and ideology.

The issue is that he has fed this to Russians for years now, that they are one in the same as them and now he must try to explain to them why he is destroying the family he claimed to love. The reason he gave to Russia was to save Ukrainians! He thinks he is a hero. He told Russia he was going into save the Ukrainians.

 

[DennisN]

In case anyone's forgotten Raman Pratasevich: Belarus literally delivered a bomb threat against an airplane flying over, then forced it down with fighter jets, just to put a random media critic in jail. It also doesn't help that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity and announced repeatedly that they were just doing military exercises before invading with no pretext

Yes. And let me add poisoning of political opponents and persecution of journalists by the Putin regime to that list.

No, I do not trust Putin, and I don't expect civility from him either (unless it suits him).

 

[PeroK]

Well he is not saying what you attribute to him. To make it clear, here is an example. I think everyone will agree that WWII was a major geopolitical catastrophe for the world, but this doesn't imply that anyone wants to go back to 1938 and restore the British Empire or Nazi Germany.

I can't understand this way of thinking. Putin has invaded Ukraine, in case you hadn't noticed. But, I doubt you'll find him saying that either. He'll say it's "special military operations" or "liberation from neo-nazi drug-addicts". It's insanity to imagine that Putin will say honestly what he's doing, let alone what he's planning.

Through the whole build up of forces against Ukraine, he lied the whole time to everyone about his intentions.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I know S&P reduced their credit rating to "Junk" ... that's a start

Toddlers have better reasoning ability here. Negotiations are shot

I can't understand this way of thinking. Putin has invaded Ukraine, in case you hadn't noticed. But, I doubt you'll find him saying that either. He'll say it's "special military operations" or "liberation from neo-nazi drug-addicts". It's insanity to imagine that Putin will say honestly what he's doing, let alone what he's planning.

Through the whole build up of forces against Ukraine, he lied the whole time to everyone about his intentions.

Even more disgusting, he is sending in 18 year old boys on the fricking front lines to be slaughtered and not even informing them. Most of them being captured are saying that they had no idea what had happened and why.

 

[fresh_42]

Yes. And let me add poisoning of political oppents and persecution of journalists by the Putin regime to that list.

R.I.P. Boris Nemtsov ($\dagger$ 2/27/2015).

No, I do not trust Putin, and I don't expect civility from him either (unless it suits him).

Putin has set the Russian nuclear strike forces on alert.

Does it need more to justify my diagnosis of F60.0?

Edit: This is neither an apology nor a justification, just in case someone feels the need to read it into it.

 

[DennisN]

Putin has set the Russian nuclear strike forces on alert.

I read that a while ago. Stunning. I have no words to describe how I feel*.
*Update: Yes I do. Very, very angry. And frightened.

Also, The Guardian has recently reported that Russia and Ukraine will have a meeting (at the Belarusian border, I think), no details yet:

Zelenskiy: Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet without preconditions

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet without preconditions.

Breaking news, details to follow.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-russian-banks-cut-off-from-swift-system-live

 

[Mike S.]

Videos of captured Russian soldiers are being uploaded on most social media platforms. This is the most grotesque that I’ve encountered thus far- this one should have not been uploaded in this manner.

I don't think the Ukrainians need to apologize for exercising their freedom of speech here. I looked at some of those clips and they seem to be calm conversations, no abuse in what I saw. It's not unusual for captured soldiers to end up on the media. If anything, such footage discourages any brutal treatment that would leave traces visible on film, or as per Jeremiah Denton, allows it to be reported.

 

[hutchphd]

Lest anyone foolishly forget, the Man with the Minimal Mustache (I dare not speak his name) told the entire world of his intentions repeatedly before methodically and relentlessly carrying them forward into WW2.
How can anyone today be suprised by Putin?

 

[Mike S.]

How can anyone today be suprised by Putin?

Why? Because Putin was better than this!

In 2014, Putin took a huge swath of Ukraine territory, and he didn't fire a shot. He used honest-to-God First Earth Battalion tactics, pioneered by the U.S. Army but ridiculed and despised by our own people, though Men Who Stare at Goats was a great movie. It was a quantum advance in warfare, sheer genius, seeming to usher in a new age of smart, bloodless conquest. Not necessarily good in the sense that some gangster named Goblin ended up in charge of Crimea, but at least it wasn't homicidal.

Then the "frozen war" started, people getting killed, all to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. And once the shooting started, it was so effective in alienating the Ukrainians that Russia got afraid they'd just chop off the affected territories and join NATO anyway. So they had to do more ... and more...

Thousands of Russian soldiers dead, huge costs directly, larger costs in sanctions, Russian credibility shot to perdition, disaffection at home ... and he still hasn't conquered as much territory as those "Little Green Men" did eight years ago! Now he's ordered a nuclear alert, risking the kind of war that would not end until the history books were rewritten to call the Holocaust an attempted genocide, and for WHAT? He should read the Dao Dejing, have his meeting with Zelensky, copy the treaty the Russians made with Finland with some country names crossed out and replaced, and get this over with.

 

[DennisN]

Putin has set the Russian nuclear strike forces on alert.

I read that a while ago. Stunning. I have no words to describe how I feel*.
*Update: Yes I do. Very, very angry. And frightened.

I read a strategic/military analysis regarding the recent nuclear threat on a Swedish news site.
I have no comment on it, as I have no opinion on it, I just post it here as a report with comments from a Swedish lieutenant colonel and teacher of military strategy:

(my translation from Swedish to English):

Expert regarding nuclear threat: "Can be interpreted as desperation"

While delegations from Russia and Ukraine are to meet for negotiations in Belarus, president Putin raises the voice about nuclear weapons.

Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel and teacher of military strategy at Försvarshögskolan (Swedish defence academy), comments the reports about Putins order about putting nuclear deterrence forces on high alert.

– It can be interpreted as a sign of desperation and an action because things are not going as planned in Ukraine. Then the regime must remind that there is a real threat in the background. But it would be devastating if it becomes real, for Russia as well, says Joakim Paasikivi to SvD.

By threatening with a limited nuclear attack you can force the opponents to the negotiation table, Paasikivi continues.

– The war in Ukraine is not going as Russia thought. The sanctions are massive and surely hurts. Europe has said it can handle the lack of Russian gas. And then they advance with a nuclear threat, he says.

(Source: https://www.svd.se/senaste-nytt-om-konflikten-i-ukraina (SVD, Swedish newspaper)

 

[ergospherical]

I wonder if this is the point where we're supposed to start stocking up on bottled water, tinned food, medical supplies and batteries.

 

[Keith_McClary]

 

[fresh_42]

"Can be interpreted as desperation"

Indeed. The message itself is void since nuclear forces are on alert 24/7 anyway. A journalist put it this way:
"If you are pushing me [Putin] into the corner, then I do not guarantee anymore not to use nuclear weapons."

Background: The international banking system (don't remember which institutes, in particular, are involved) is planning to freeze Russian assets, i.e. estimated 630 billion dollars. Now if the Rubel isn't backed anymore, then basically the Rubel will become worthless. This would immediately affect the entire population, and in the end affect him personally, as more and more Russians are against this war anyway.

He is already fighting for himself personally, which makes things worse. You cannot rely on anything anymore.

 

[DennisN]

More comments about the proposed talks beteen Russia and Ukraine, and also the recent nuclear threat;

Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg (regarding the proposed talks):

The announcement was also tentatively welcomed by Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, who told the news channel he had “absolute and full confidence” in Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s judgment on “whether it is right to sit down and find a political solution”.

But Stoltenberg also expressed concerns about Russia’s motivations. “It remains to be seen whether Russia is really willing to make some serious compromises and also to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine.”

Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg (regarding the nuclear threat):

Stoltenberg characterised Putin’s decision to order Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert as “dangerous rhetoric” and “a behaviour that is irresponsible”.

“Of course if you combine this rhetoric with what they’re doing on the ground in Ukraine, waging war against the independent sovereign nation, conducting full fledged invasion of Ukraine, this adds to the seriousness of the situation.”

He added, with reference to recently increased Nato presence in the eastern part of the alliance: “We have to realize we are now faced with a new normal for our security … there will be some long-term consequences and this is just the beginning of the adaptation that we need to do as a response to a much more aggressive Russia.”

and the foreign minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba:

“This is a war between president Putin and the people of Ukraine,” he said, adding: “We are determined to defeat Russia, the same way we defeated the previous monster in Europe 80 years ago.”

He urged allies to provide more military supplies in the battle against Russia.

Kuleba, responding to questions about nuclear attacks, said that if Ukraine was attacked with nuclear weapons it would be “a catastrophe”, but said it would not break the Ukrainian spirit. He said Putin’s order to put nuclear deterrence on high alert was a strategy to raise the stakes ahead of the talks.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-russian-banks-cut-off-from-swift-system-live (The Guardian)

 

[fresh_42]

I wonder if this is the point where we're supposed to start stocking up on bottled water, tinned food, medical supplies and batteries.

In case of a nuclear war? Don't we both live close to primary military targets?

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

 

[DennisN]

One more comment about the nuclear threat, from Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst and head of the Russian Nuclear Forces project:

It is not immediately clear what the “special mode of combat duty” entails. Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst and head of the Russian Nuclear Forces project, said it was “hard to tell” what the order meant but that it may be a “preliminary command.” It “makes a retaliatory strike possible,” he told the Guardian. “But does not mean preparation for a first strike.”

It does not appear to be the highest level of readiness, including bombers being loaded with weapons and taking off. “It is an action that makes the command and control able to react if necessary,” said Podvig. “But it’s a pretty high level.”

Source: Vladimir Putin puts Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert (The Guardian, 27 February, 2022)

 

[gleem]

This has been an interesting discussion. A lot of history has been referenced and so much that it was is hard to follow let alone remember. Below is a Sunday Morning (CBS) segment on Ukraine and its relation to Russia with Historian Anne Applebaum.


www.cbsnews.com/video/ukraine-long-a-victim-of-russian-oppression/Additionally, there is also a short segment on Putin with journalist David Remnick. Copy link to view.

www.cbsnews.com/video/inside-the-mind-of-vladimir-putin/And to top it off a short video of a nuclear war simulation from Princeton University called Plan A resulting from the use of a tactical nuclear weapon.

https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

EDIT: sorry if I interrupted any views while editing

 

[Borg]

I just want to say that the Ukrainians deserve a lot of praise for the defense of their country. They didn't ask for this fight but they're not backing down either. Whatever happens, no one can take that away from them.

 

[hutchphd]

I wonder if this is the point where we're supposed to start stocking up on bottled water, tinned food, medical supplies and batteries.

Just for you, some gallows humor from long ago: