Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[geordief]

I'm afraid I went for the gong on Newman, but there are all sorts of odd artifacts on the internet that come up with a search for some common phrase like putin khuilo. Pity I don't know what they're saying!

Interesting .Makes me wonder whether Putin was just too stupid to mind his own business
(You break it ,you own it comes to mind)

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...enocide-case-against-russia-over-its-invasion

Ukraine launched a case against Russia at the United Nations’ highest court accusing Moscow of planning genocide and asking the court to intervene to halt the invasion and order Russia to pay reparations, the court said Sunday.

The case, filed Saturday, asks the International Court of Justice, based in The Hague, to indicate “provisional measures” ordering Moscow to “immediately suspend the military operations” that were launched February 24.

The case says Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine based on false claims of acts of genocide in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine and now is planning genocidal acts in Ukraine.

I do wonder what the outcome of this will be.

 

[geordief]

Sorry if this has been answered before, but I do have a question:

What threat does Ukraine pose to Russia, if Ukraine join NATO?

Well it means if he tangles with any country in Nato Ukraine would come to their assistance and likewise if he attacked Ukraine.

So militarily, maybe economically Russia would be weaker.

But his real problem ,I'd say (Nato aside) is just that Ukraine would be an example of a neighbour doing things differently .

Putin knows best.

 

[Mike S.]

A quick check with Wiki brings up a likely result... including the song. (that which must not be posted in this thread)

Wikipedia's link didn't work for me, but it reminded me of the right band name. This song doesn't have a lot of lyrics, but they sure made a silk purse out of a sow's ear if you compare their version to the original protest which kind of peters out a bit. I tend to suspect that some of the production values that were put into videos there might represent "foreign influence", but it strikes me as legitimate foreign influence in a way. I mean, think about how many foreign-backed movies marketed to the U.S. portray American-like soldiers as stupid, incompetent, and evil...

 

[DennisN]

Russia is expected to get a really cold financial shower on Monday:

Moscow braces for rouble to crash at least 25% as new sanctions hit

Russian currency expected to plunge in first day’s trading since Swift ban and ECB says state-owned Sberbank subsidiaries are set to collapse

...

Source: Moscow braces for rouble to crash at least 25% as new sanctions hit (The Guardian)

 

[Astronuc]

What threat does Ukraine pose to Russia, if Ukraine join NATO?

Only Putin can answer with certainty. All else would be speculation.

However, from my perspective, Putin is reacting to prior comments and/or tacit commitments, not to expand NATO to the east toward the Russian border, and especially, not Georgia or Ukraine. He's demanded so at different times. Apparently, he feels his demands have been ignored, NATO has expanded, and it makes him look powerless, or less powerful.

Certainly, NATO is defensive. But that is not good enough in some minds.

More recently, two things I've heard about Zelenskyy, but have not independently verified:

1. Apparently someone in the government made a statement recently, in the past several weeks or months(?), that Ukraine would not join NATO. Zelenskyy apparently contradicted that statement indicating his desire for Ukraine to join NATO sooner than later. That would complicate the matter of Donbas and Luhansk provinces, and Crimea.

2. Apparently, very recently, may be in the past few weeks or last month, Zelenskyy talked about acquiring nuclear technology (for nuclear energy, see one of my previous posts), and apparently there was a comment about nuclear weapons. I seem to remember some comment, but I don't recall when or the context. That would certainly attract Putin's attention and raise his hackles.

There have been some comments about the Budapest Memorandum, but I don't know what was said and who said what.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

In the years that followed [break up of USSR], Ukraine made the decision to denuclearize completely. In exchange, it would get a security guarantee from the U.S., the U.K. and Russia, known as the Budapest Memorandum.

I know about the denuclearization of CIS and a joint program by US and Russia, and I know some folks who worked on it.

Besides the fact that Ukraine is much less pro-Russian that it was three decades ago. One of my friends believes we'll see an attempt to split Ukraine into a Pro-Russian East and pro-West/EU West, but I can't see that being palatable. The politics are complicated.

 

[DennisN]

Belarus joins in the talk about nuclear weapons...
...a warning about "tit-for-that" regarding placement of nuclear weapons:

Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status: reports

A referendum in Belarus on Sunday reportedly approved a new constitution renouncing the country’s non-nuclear status at a time when the former Soviet republic has become a launch pad for Russian troops invading Ukraine, Russian news agencies report.

The move could theoretically allow Russia to place nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil for the first time since the country gave them up after the fall of the Soviet Union. The referendum result will come into force 10 days after its official publication, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported.

On Sunday, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said: “If you [the west] transfer nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania, to our borders, then I will turn to Putin to return the nuclear weapons that I gave away without any conditions.”

[...]

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-russian-banks-cut-off-from-swift-system-live (The Guardian)

 

[Office_Shredder]

Belarus joins in the talk about nuclear weapons...
...a warning about "tit-for-that" regarding placement of nuclear weapons:

And watch nobody try to invade their country with 200,000 soldiers in response

 

[Rive]

These next days will be decisive because Russians have now gotten a clear message that simple 20 year olds with guns won't win this, so I think they are regrouping and considering heavier weaponry.

It was estimated that around ~ 200k troops were piled up on the borders at the start, and part of that should be logistics. I can only guess that most of the fighting units are already 'in', and that's why they had to call more troops from Belarus.
To move more (Russian) troops would require extensive logistics. Takes weeks.
Today people in Russia are back to work and they will notice that things are not like they were a mere week ago. The pressure on Putin will grow day by day, both externally and internally.

With that pressure I think if Ukraine can hold on for a week or two then Putin will be restrained (or directly removed) and there won't be time to move the necessary troops anymore.

If this goes on it even may happen that Putin will be 'kindly asked' to personally administer the necessary self-sacrifice for saving some face for Russia.

 

[artis]

I agree with this. Russia has gotten stuck in quagmires and regrouped to win before. The winter war and the Chechnya rebellions are two that come to mind where they attacked a weaker opponent, got embarrassed, and then continued to figure things out and eventually won. It's only day 4 right now. It took 9 weeks for the US to take over Afghanistan, and about 6 weeks to take Iraq.

Well for one US bombed much harder at the start of Iraq and Afghanistan than Russia has done so far, and I really don't understand why from a tactical perspective, they probably thought Ukraine will fall easier.

phrase like putin khuilo

Khuilo or more precisely "khuylo" means the male genitalia in Ukrainian in a slang offensive way.

 

[artis]

It was estimated that around ~ 200k troops were piled up on the borders at the start, and part of that should be logistics. I can only guess that most of the fighting units are already 'in', and that's why they had to call more troops from Belarus.
To move more (Russian) troops would require extensive logistics. Takes weeks.
Today people in Russia are back to work and they will notice that things are not like they were a mere week ago. The pressure on Putin will grow day by day, both externally and internally.

With that pressure I think if Ukraine can hold on for a week or two then Putin will be restrained (or directly removed) and there won't be time to move the necessary troops anymore.

If this goes on it even may happen that Putin will be 'kindly asked' to personally administer the necessary self-sacrifice for saving some face for Russia.

I can only admire the optimism on the "west"... I would caution against such optimism as it has rarely seen daylight in Russia, Sure Russia today is different than it was back in history but given how much Russians have suffered and still had their previous leaders hold on to power Putin has a long way to go from here to reach those levels so the idea that somehow He will be escorted out by ordinary Moscovites is , well a naive one.

 

[artis]

It seems Russian airstrikes could have destroyed the world's largest flying aircraft in service the Soviet built AN225 ,
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/arti...-plane-destroyed-ukraine-scli-intl/index.html

It originally was built by the Soviets for their space program. Since the end of USSR it had seen 30 years of service being owned by a Ukrainian company transporting some of the worlds most important cargo where it was needed in a fast time. Among other things it had a cult following from airfans around the world that regularly attended it;s landings in various airfields , you can check it on youtube
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-225_Mriya


But hey , no worries, I hear this man has some spare parts...

 

[Rive]

the idea that somehow He will be escorted out by ordinary Moscovites is , well a naive one.

Not by 'ordinary Moscovites'. But there are examples and a nice tradition of military based internal power changes in Russia and no window is Putin-proof there. And support from general sentiment helps.

 

[artis]

To short summarize what this morning a local general said,
Russians will try to encircle the east of Ukraine and capture their army forces there , and they will try to encircle Kyiv, so far they have tried to use low scale tactics with mostly ground troops and tried to spare civilians as much as possible which seems to be the case so far, that is because Putin wanted to show the image that he is only fighting against the "fascists" and their bases and not ordinary Ukrainians/Russians.
Since this strategy is not going as planned it seems there is regrouping under way and the war will go into the typical setting with lots of airpower and bombing.
Heavy artillery is deployed and troops are regrouping for a different sort of war.
It seems Poland is helping Ukraine with guns and possible some fighter jets they are trying to get over the border.
People from Baltics have went to fight for Ukraine on Ukrainian soil.

A Chechen convoy seen outside Kyiv seemingly readied to encircle Kyiv and take it down alongside Russian troops


Russians deploying themrobaric missiles and other heavy weaponry more and more


An explosion within an attacked Ukrainian ammunition depot
View of Russian missile launching during night
https://cloud.mail.ru/public/1UYu/YfmEo87Go

Some in Belarus using wires to trick train command to think rails are in use by another train to slow Russian military train passing supplies to front line
Ukrainian soldiers in a video telling Russian soldiers they will die
Some hackers have got into Russian E vehicle charging stations and some of the station displays now read "Putin khuylo" "Glory to Ukraine"It might be that Ukraine will get split for now in two along the mighty Dnepr river which is hard to cross by ground troops if bridges are blown up and there is fortifications on each side.

 

[artis]

 

[snorkack]

I can only admire the optimism on the "west"... I would caution against such optimism as it has rarely seen daylight in Russia, Sure Russia today is different than it was back in history but given how much Russians have suffered and still had their previous leaders hold on to power Putin has a long way to go from here to reach those levels so the idea that somehow He will be escorted out by ordinary Moscovites is , well a naive one.

But it has seen daylight in Russia before. A major experience of reference here is August 1991. The coup collapsed in 3 days, and Gorbachev and Soviet Union were out in 4 months thereafter. I think many in Russia, and outside Russia with the experience of 1991 for the reference, are hoping for just that - quick collapse followed by a quick and thorough detente. And fearing a prolonged mess of aftermath of collapse that does not lead to a quick detente.

 

[artis]

But it has seen daylight in Russia before. A major experience of reference here is August 1991. The coup collapsed in 3 days, and Gorbachev and Soviet Union were out in 4 months thereafter. I think many in Russia, and outside Russia with the experience of 1991 for the reference, are hoping for just that - quick collapse followed by a quick and thorough detente. And fearing a prolonged mess of aftermath of collapse that does not lead to a quick detente.

Those were completely different times. Back then the spirit was similar across all of Russia and pretty much every socialist republic, nowadays it;s different Russia is internally divided among this issue much like US is split 50/50 these days between the more conservative side and the liberal.

 

[Mike S.]

People from Baltics have went to fight for Ukraine on Ukrainian soil.

That sounds worrisome. The Baltics are NATO, and if Putin makes the Russian military treat this as an organized infiltration by Baltic governments excusing a land invasion of them also, it officially turns into World War III.

 

[snorkack]

Those were completely different times. Back then the spirit was similar across all of Russia and pretty much every socialist republic, nowadays it;s different Russia is internally divided among this issue much like US is split 50/50 these days between the more conservative side and the liberal.

Also, 1991 was not preceded and accompanied by such massive increase of hostility and fear of aggression and, more importantly, suspicion of subversion on both sides. In 1991, there was massive external detente and goodwill for Gorbachev and Yeltsin. In the buildup to now, there are massive recriminations and witchhunts against everyone who hesitated or hesitates.

 

[artis]

That sounds worrisome. The Baltics are NATO, and if Putin makes the Russian military treat this as an organized infiltration by Baltic governments excusing a land invasion of them also, it officially turns into World War III.

No need to worry , this tactic is called a proxy war, these have been a classic in the 20th century, USSR fought Americans indirectly in Korea, Vietnam , Afghanistan etc.
In each of these wars neither country had physical confirmed presence on ground, instead they supplied weapons, training, personnel etc.
United states lost both Korean war and Vietnam because of strong USSR support, how do you otherwise imagine these small guerilla warfare states did manage to defeat the strongest military in the world (besides the USSR itself) back then?

Nothing new under the sun as they say, no need to worry, only this time unlike US fighting directly with say Vietnam where Vietnam is supported by USSR supplies it's the other way around, Russia is fighting Ukraine directly with Ukraine getting some limited US supplies.

 

[artis]

Also, 1991 was not preceded and accompanied by such massive increase of hostility and fear of aggression

Not true, maybe not in the west but here we knew the situation could turn either way, if the famous "August Coup" was successful and the hardline military communists gained power over USSR , the revolting masses in the republics would have been murdered.
Every republic had huge Red army presence. We Latvia for example had about 2.5 million civillians and 500 000 soldiers, compare those odds one doesn't even need maths to do it.

 

[pinball1970]

No need to worry , this tactic is called a proxy war, these have been a classic in the 20th century, USSR fought Americans indirectly in Korea, Vietnam , Afghanistan etc.
In each of these wars neither country had physical confirmed presence on ground, instead they supplied weapons, training, personnel etc.
United states lost both Korean war and Vietnam because of strong USSR support, how do you otherwise imagine these small guerilla warfare states did manage to defeat the strongest military in the world (besides the USSR itself) back then?

Nothing new under the sun as they say, no need to worry, only this time unlike US fighting directly with say Vietnam where Vietnam is supported by USSR supplies it's the other way around, Russia is fighting Ukraine directly with Ukraine getting some limited US supplies.

I am worried.

Hopefully economic pressure can influence the situation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60550992

 

[fresh_42]

If this goes on it even may happen that Putin will be 'kindly asked' to personally administer the necessary self-sacrifice for saving some face for Russia.

This is actually a real danger to all of us: Putin is running out of options to land that thing as a German reporter in Moscow has put it. What are his exit options after months of martial rhetoric on basically all propaganda media in Russia?

 

[Mike S.]

No need to worry , this tactic is called a proxy war

Proxy wars are normally based in countries safe from attack. Honduras may be a small country, but it's bigger than El Salvador. If they had hosted or sent Contras but been next door to Columbia, things would have gone differently I think.

 

[artis]

This is actually a real danger to all of us: Putin is running out of options to land that thing as a German reporter in Moscow has put it. What are his exit options after months of martial rhetoric on basically all propaganda media in Russia?

I personally think so far they had trouble taking Ukraine over because of
1) Using mostly ground troops and avoiding huge damage to infrastructure , because they hope that in case they capture they won't have to rebuild as much, this is the reason why Ukrainian soldiers are laughing that they still have hot water and electricity.
2) Ukrainian resistance has been better than anticipated

So what are Putin's options? Well again not my personal view but to answer the question, his options are to stop being gentle and just bomb the crap out of everything and disabling everything from electricity to water to food. I'm afraid this is coming.

 

[pinball1970]

I personally think so far they had trouble taking Ukraine over because of
1) Using mostly ground troops and avoiding huge damage to infrastructure , because they hope that in case they capture they won't have to rebuild as much, this is the reason why Ukrainian soldiers are laughing that they still have hot water and electricity.
2) Ukrainian resistance has been better than anticipated

So what are Putin's options? Well again not my personal view but to answer the question, his options are to stop being gentle and just bomb the crap out of everything and disabling everything from electricity to water to food. I'm afraid this is coming.

This popped up from a few minutes ago

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877Talks in Belarus, even if they fail we could get a talk, fight, ceasefire, talk situation which is better than escalation

 

[Rive]

better than escalation

In the meantime
The same stuff what went in Aleppo few years ago

 

[PeroK]

This is actually a real danger to all of us: Putin is running out of options to land that thing as a German reporter in Moscow has put it. What are his exit options after months of martial rhetoric on basically all propaganda media in Russia?

I agree that's the situation we are in. Whatever has happened in the past 20 years we now have what we always feared - an unstable and perhaps desperate dictator with a massive nuclear arsenal. That threat is not going away.

 

[Mike S.]

It might be that Ukraine will get split for now in two along the mighty Dnepr river which is hard to cross by ground troops if bridges are blown up and there is fortifications on each side

I've seen that scenario mooted for weeks now, but it doesn't seem real. If you look at the nytimes.com maps (you have to set your browser to block its cookies to read it), they show the Russians moving in from Kiev to Kherson on the west side of the Dnieper - more than in the east! Far from being a safe place, the western bank looks to my untrained eye like it could be the destination for their forces to link up so they can siege, starve, and cut off reinforcements to most of Ukraine. Unless (touch wood), they run into some unfortunate mishaps along the way.

 

[fresh_42]

The greatest mishap for the Russians is currently the Rubel. And it only just began.

 

[artis]

Let's see how the peace talks that are currently under way end, but I get videos on my live feed in social media platforms that even as of currently during the talks there is shelling going on in parts of Ukraine.

 

[snorkack]

I agree that's the situation we are in. Whatever has happened in the past 20 years we now have what we always feared - an unstable and perhaps desperate dictator with a massive nuclear arsenal. That threat is not going away.

That problem we also had in 1991 - unstable and desperate people with massive nuclear arsenals. In 1991, we all breathed a sign of relief when the threat relaxed, no nuclear arms were deployed and they were quietly given up to new people. But the problem is that a wide circle of people fear worse this time.

 

[Rive]

link
That's some Chechen leader (Kadirov) there, with giving an ultimatum to the world with end date of 31. of February.

 

[fresh_42]

I am not sure whether this is a good place to post it, but I do not want to create a new thread.
Nevertheless, I think it has to be said, and it's a particular duty for a German to say it:

Dziękuję Polsko!

For exemplary humanity in the current refugee crisis (160,000 and counting). This is equally true for Moldavia and others, but I choose Poland because most Ukrainian refugees seek safety there.

 

[berkeman]

Agreed. Poland and other countries have really stepped up to help.