Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

Sweden supports Ukraine with equipment, in a way we haven't done since we helped Finland in 1939:

(my translation to English below)

Andersson: Substantial military equipment support to Ukraine

- For me as prime minister the first and last question is what serves Sweden. My conclusion is that our security is best served by supporting Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Sweden will provide a substantial support to Ukraine in close coordination with other countries, says prime minister Magdalena Andersson (S),

- This question is larger than Ukraine, Russia threatens the entire European security. Then you have to make exceptional decisions.

- Sweden and EU has spoken of solidarity with the Ukraine people. International law allows Ukraine to defend itself.

Sweden will send 135 000 field rations, 5 000 helmets, 5 000 body armors, and 5 000 anti-tank weapons costing about 400 million kronor. Sweden will also increase the humanitarian support for Ukraine with 500 million kronor.

- This is the first time we do this kind of support since the Soviet attack on Finland 1939. But we are ready to do what is needed for the safety of Sweden and the entire EU, says Magdalena Andersson.

- I want to thank the parties in the parliament in this serious situation. There is a substantial support for this decision today.

Defense minister Peter Hultqvist:

- Ukraine has asked for anti-tank weapons, armor, ammunition, demining equipment etc. We have discussed with other countries to find a balanced way of concerted effort to support Ukraine.

- It is in line with Swedish strategy and Swedish position to contribute equipment in this exceptional situation.

Source: https://www.dn.se/varlden/folj-det-sakerhetspolitiska-laget-i-europa/ (DN, Swedish newspaper, Swedish only, my translation to English above)

 

[geordief]

Does this nuclear alert taken by the Russians signal that Putin is beginning to see this through defensive eyes?

Is he trying to hold onto as much (that he has illegally taken) as he can but feels there are more risks now than opportunities?

 

[mathwonk]

In reference to post 385, I recall finding this advice actually quite calming back in the 1950's as a schoolkid, since I was having trouble remembering what exactly to do in an attack, and #6 and #7 seemed both realistic and easy to remember, as well as rendering all the other advice irrelevant.

 

[PeroK]

I just want to say that the Ukrainians deserve a lot of praise for the defense of their country. They didn't ask for this fight but they're not backing down either. Whatever happens, no one can take that away from them.

It's perhaps even more than that. Ukraine has shown that it is possible to fight back and, I believe, this has inspired support around the world. The mood round the world (as far as I can tell) has not only hardened against Russia, but there's huge admiration for the bravery of the Ukrainians. The first pronouncements from the EU, UK and USA seemed a little hollow - like they didn't really believe Ukraine would hold out long. That Russian tanks would just roll them over - like Prague 1968, Budapest 1956 and East Berlin 1953. The way that the Ukraine has fought back as hard as possible seems to have generated huge support and even a determination in the rest of the world to fight Russia economically over this.

And, I think Putin may have really frightened world leaders to see just what a rogue dictator can do. Just how dangerous a man like that can be. And that if he survives and the Russians don't replace him, then we are all at risk. There's no pretending any more that Putin has not restarted the cold war. Whether he's attacking neighbouring countries, or sitting in the Kremilin planning his next move, we are at all risk from him.

There comes a point where in the UK, for example, our national security does take precedence over political donations. I sincerely hope we've reached the stage where the money paid to our ruling party is no longer enough for them to turn a blind eye to what he's doing.

 

[Astronuc]

Putin has set the Russian nuclear strike forces on alert.

I received an Associated Press (AP) notification on this matter.

Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions​

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...urope-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550

Target 1 - Kyiv. Then how would US and EU respond?

Targets 2 - other national capitals?

At this point, it must be clear that Putin is a narcissitic, authoritarian psychopath.

 

[Jarvis323]

I worry that Putin's latest veiled threat of nuclear war could be a precursor to a more aggressive barrage of indiscriminate attacks. He has weapons lined up capable of leveling cities from a distance. If he gets more desperate, he may begin a more destructive approach. I think the world should draw a clear red line in terms of indiscriminate destruction and civilian suffering with some real serious consequence.

 

[fresh_42]

At this point, it must be clear that Putin is a narcissitic, authoritarian psychopath.

Yes. F60.0 I would say. I live close to the world's largest internet knot. Guess a nuclear war wouldn't last very long for me. Time to think about a preventive local strike on the Kremlin itself?

 

[phinds]

It continues to appear that Putin is creating exactly what he would not want to create

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877

Within a few days Vladimir Putin has managed to do what Nato allies have spent years trying to achieve: a massive increase of military spending in Germany.

German weapons for Ukraine. An additional $113 bn (£84 bn) for the German army. And a constitutional commitment to reach Nato’s military spending target of 2% of GDP.

This is arguably one of the biggest shifts ever seen in Germany’s post-war foreign policy. Before Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine, such a militaristic stance would have unthinkable in Germany. Traditionally Germany focuses on diplomacy and dialogue, not military might, and historically there are deep economic and cultural links between Russia and Germany. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked and stunned Germany’s government and German voters. Olaf Scholz called Vladimir Putin inhumane and a warmonger, and pledged unwavering support for Ukraine. Judging by the applause and standing ovations for Ukraine in the German parliament, and the enormous anti-war demonstration in Berlin today, most Germans seem to agree with him.

 

[fresh_42]

Before Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine, such a militaristic stance would have unthinkable in Germany.

Especially as the current government is run by liberals, social democrats, and the green party, a government Americans would call socialist.

 

[Rive]

This 'war' is rather strange. As it seems so far, from the 'red army' no air support, minimal logistics, all time low morale, no recon, no patrols, no occupation/territory keeping. Only (!) numbers thrown in.

?

At this rate Ukraine may have some chance.

 

[mathwonk]

A Ukrainian citizen asked on tv last night for the rest of us not to remain silent. One thing some of us (those of us who can afford it) could say to our political representatives is that we are willing to pay higher fuel prices in response to sanctions.

 

[Mike S.]

I can imagine when anti-war protesters turn out to support constitutional requirements for military spending, a person might start to wonder if they were handed the wrong strain at the dispensary. I mean, it sounds convenient from a US point of view, but I don't know if it still will if AfD sweeps their next election.

But I can be wrong about all kinds of things. I was sure myself the Ukrainians were folding up and blowing away the day after the tanks moved in. There is something about their determination to keep fighting in the face of the impossible that can't help but draw admiration, even if I still wonder whether conventional weapons are enough to matter. But the more the Russians attack, the angrier the Ukrainians get, the more impossible the conquest seems. Ukraine has nearly a third of Russia's population - what plan can the Russians have to keep them all subjugated if they keep fighting?

 

[fresh_42]

I don't know if it still will if AfD sweeps their next election.

Not very likely. And not before almost four years from now. And financing the military is on the Nazis' agenda anyway.

 

[mathwonk]

The current discussion of whether Putin is mad or just pretending to be seems a repeat fom 2014-15:
https://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/10/impeccable-logic-behind-putins-madman-strategy-318529.html

Unfortunately I am also reminded of a sentence at the end of chapter XXXI in vol. 3 of Churchill's history of WW2 in regard to Pearl Harbor, something like: "Madness is however an affliction which in war carries with it the advantage of surprise."

 

[artis]

The current discussion of whether Putin is mad or just pretending to be seems a repeat fom 2014-15:
https://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/10/impeccable-logic-behind-putins-madman-strategy-318529.html

Unfortunately I am also reminded of a sentence at the end of chapter XXXI in vol. 3 of Churchill's history of WW2 in regard to Pearl Harbor, something like: "Madness is however an affliction which in war carries with it the advantage of surprise."

And that is the sole reason why Hitler managed to attack the USSR and almost capture Moscow, Stalin was bit reluctant to believe that the other guy could be just as big of a schizo as himself, the famous Soviet spy Richard Zorge told him multiple times that the Japanese won't attack Soviets but instead Germans will and Stalin being Stalin though the "Zorge" is just messing with his mind...
That is the conclusion from known correspondence between spies and the Soviet intelligence at that time

This 'war' is rather strange. As it seems so far, from the 'red army' no air support, minimal logistics, all time low morale, no recon, no patrols, no occupation/territory keeping. Only (!) numbers thrown in.

?

At this rate Ukraine may have some chance.

Well there is one thing some overlook here and it is the fact that you are absolutely right , not only Russia has chosen the most complicated and demanding attack plan of all of them , that is to attack from all sides simultaneously but that Russia so far has done very little and very targeted bombing and mainly relied on troops formed as it seems by teens aka those that barely turn 18 and form the obligatory military service.
Which from a tactical viewpoint is bit weird. I for one think they thought Ukraine will be an easy target so sent their "cheapest" , but now they are seriously reconsidering for sure.

It seems to me Putin is sort of mumbling for now , not sure what is the strategy here, do they do that because they want to preserve as much of Ukraine as possible in order if they capture it that they don't have to rebuild it , I don't know. But I don't believe that someone like Putin and his pantheon of army strategists used the best part of last 8 years to come up with a failed and dumb plan that ridicules them for no benefit and let's Ukraine win.
I do think Ukraine has showed better performance than expected even by Russians so that definitely plays a part, but I don't think Putin will just end this with a "peace agreement" and apologize and go home.

As of now I think he will either "stop playing around" and bomb the holy cow out of Ukraine not caring about demolishing Ukraine to the ground anymore because his persona has been ridiculed by the Ukrainians who are willing to fight tooth to nail.
Or he will negotiate some deal where NATO is never allowed to even look or think about Ukraine ever and he keeps Crimea but promises to leave rest of Ukraine alone or something along those lines, but given Zelensky's stance and Ukrainian fighting this is unlikely. So I think he will either accept loss (yeah right...) or perform a "controlled demolition" on Ukraine.

Pretty much the only thing that could make him reconsider for a more peaceful outcome is his own Russian people and their increased opposition and his rich friends who could in theory poison his own tea for a change because in Russia nobody is immune from an assassination, It's not like he has no enemies at home, it's just that it's extremely hard to get to him since he has the whole Russian state special forces as his personal bodyguards but still someone close to him with a lot of influence could in theory pull some strings.

Just like Stalin was denounced not by outsiders but by his own inner circle, and till this day his death cannot be ruled out as an assassination and a power grab within the Politburo because trust me there was plenty of teeth grinding within that community.

 

[Jarvis323]

It seems to me Putin is sort of mumbling for now , not sure what is the strategy here, do they do that because they want to preserve as much of Ukraine as possible in order if they capture it that they don't have to rebuild it , I don't know. But I don't believe that someone like Putin and his pantheon of army strategists used the best part of last 8 years to come up with a failed and dumb plan that ridicules them for no benefit and let's Ukraine win.
I do think Ukraine has showed better performance than expected even by Russians so that definitely plays a part, but I don't think Putin will just end this with a "peace agreement" and apologize and go home.

From what I've seen, it looks like Putin's inner circle are afraid of him and are coerced by fear to agree, and probably don't think this invasion was a good plan.

 

[artis]

From what I've seen, it looks like Putin's inner circle are afraid of him and are coerced by fear to agree, and probably don't think this invasion was a good plan.

Nah, don't be fooled by his show, I'm not saying he is not feared he is, but all of this Russian TV Kremlin golden corridor diamond shiny red carpet thing is just a media stunt to keep less brave souls at bay from even thinking about raising their voice. It means not that much that is my own assessment.
Just like the red square military parades, everybody knows Russia has lethal force and can destroy the world as we know it, it's just a thing to keep your own people entertained.
To paraphrase Lenin's remarks "all people need is cinema"
https://quotepark.com/quotes/174340...re-known-among-us-as-a-protector-of-the-arts/Anyway I'm off for a while, at this point nothing else can be said only speculated, but if I had to put a bet I'd say round 2 is already underway and this won't just die out like a bonfire lacking firewood.
These next days will be decisive because Russians have now gotten a clear message that simple 20 year olds with guns won't win this, so I think they are regrouping and considering heavier weaponry.
I expect heavy bombing, massive artillery and air support and who knows maybe a tactical low yield nuclear tipped missile from a fighter jet can be dropped int he mix if need be. All options are open at this point. Let's hope it doesn't come to this.

 

[Jarvis323]

Nah, don't be fooled by his show, I'm not saying he is not feared he is, but all of this Russian TV Kremlin golden corridor diamond shiny red carpet thing is just a media stunt to keep less brave souls at bay from even thinking about raising their voice. It means not that much that is my own assessment.

I wondered the same. But I can see and hear the fear and hesitation in Putin's spy chief and also read Putin's frustration and attitude, and it doesn't look at all like acting. It's not the words, but the mannerisms and subtleties that give it away, even if the event was supposed to be just a show for the TV. And further, it was a no win situation from the start (not necessarily the invasion strategy, but choice to invade in the first place), and his strategists would have known this. It is a common problem that when a leader has a dumb idea, people are afraid to contradict them. In this case, either his were not completely brave enough to really try to get through to him, or they did and he overrode them.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Anyway I'm off for a while, at this point nothing else can be said only speculated, but if I had to put a bet I'd say round 2 is already underway and this won't just die out like a bonfire lacking firewood.

I agree with this. Russia has gotten stuck in quagmires and regrouped to win before. The winter war and the Chechnya rebellions are two that come to mind where they attacked a weaker opponent, got embarrassed, and then continued to figure things out and eventually won. It's only day 4 right now. It took 9 weeks for the US to take over Afghanistan, and about 6 weeks to take Iraq.

 

[Jodo]

Just for you, some gallows humor from long ago:View attachment 297671

Rofl at 6 and 7. Kind of like the "emergency position" on a plane incase of a crash. Truth be told if I could put my head between my legs, I wouldn't be on the plane in the first place.

 

[Jarvis323]

I agree with this. Russia has gotten stuck in quagmires and regrouped to win before. The winter war and the Chechnya rebellions are two that come to mind where they attacked a weaker opponent, got embarrassed, and then continued to figure things out and eventually won.

Sure, but look at the sentiment between the widely hated Chechen forces and Russian people. And look at how he won that war, through mass destruction. Putin can do what he did in Chechnya, but it would not go down well in the aftermath for him. His entire country will turn against him.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Sure, but look at the sentiment between the widely hated Chechen forces and Russian people. And look at how he won that war, through mass destruction. Putin can do what he did in Chechnya, but it would not go down well in the aftermath for him. His entire country will turn against him.

Why do you think that? Russia has a well tuned propaganda machine that doesn't even need to really lie that much to blame the west for all is their problems. I mean sure, maybe this ends up not working, but the idea that Russia has to wrap this up in two weeks or else Putin's 20 year iron clad grip on power will crumble to dust just feels really optimistic.

 

[geordief]

As a rule of thumb ,how many tyrants like Putin see out their career successfully?

Franco did ,but is that the exception?

 

[Jarvis323]

Why do you think that? Russia has a well tuned propaganda machine that doesn't even need to really lie that much to blame the west for all is their problems. I mean sure, maybe this ends up not working, but the idea that Russia has to wrap this up in two weeks or else Putin's 20 year iron clad grip on power will crumble to dust just feels really optimistic.

I think so. Propaganda only goes so far. Putin is testing new waters on this one, and it doesn't compute well for him in my mind.

I don't think he needs to wrap it up quickly. But if he resorts to targeting civilians with things like thermobaric missiles, then he will have crossed a new line with new consequences. And it doesn't seem he can occupy Ukraine. He is in a no win situation in my opinion. Hopefully that reality has set in and he eventually comes to his senses.

 

[Office_Shredder]

As a rule of thumb ,how many tyrants like Putin see out their career successfully?

Franco did ,but is that the exception?

Castro is one. Kim jong il is another. There are probably more.

 

[Oldman too]

The digital fall out is just getting warmed up, interesting links in this story.
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/ne...kers-pick-sides-over-russia-invading-ukraine/

 

[geordief]

I think so. Propaganda only goes so far. Putin is testing new waters on this one, and it doesn't compute well for him in my mind.

I don't think he needs to wrap it up quickly. But if he resorts to targeting civilians with things like thermobaric missiles, then he will have crossed a new line with new consequences. And it doesn't seem he can occupy Ukraine. He is in a no win situation in my opinion. Hopefully that reality has set in and he eventually comes to his senses.

I wonder what would happen to any of his close subordinates if they disagreed publicly or resigned from their position.

Would they get the KimJong treatment?

Does it seem like his entourage is frozen in approval now?

 

[StevieTNZ]

Sorry if this has been answered before, but I do have a question:

What threat does Ukraine pose to Russia, if Ukraine join NATO?

 

[Jarvis323]

Just look how their defense ministry is trying to portray themselves. And also, you can see the shame in the spokespersons face. I think that the overall sentiment within Putin's inner circle is that they don't want to be doing this and are deeply in grief over the situation.

 

[geordief]

Thanks Randy

 

[Borg]

Why Turkey calling it ‘war’ in Ukraine matters for the Black Sea ​

Turkey’s foreign minister today said his government now views the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a “war.” It’s a declaration that has consequences beyond semantics that could lead to the country more strictly limiting Russia’s access to the Black Sea, depending on how Turkey plays a delicate geopolitical hand.

 

[Oldman too]

Why Turkey calling it ‘war’ in Ukraine matters for the Black Sea​

Looks like another Domino lined up, this really is getting interesting.

 

[Borg]

Looks like another Domino lined up, this really is getting interesting.

Turkey is a NATO member which could cause this to spill over drastically. Turkey is in a tough position with this declaration and could have to decide if they would attempt to forcibly deny passage to a Russian warship.

 

[Mike S.]

I'm afraid I went for the gong on Newman, but there are all sorts of odd artifacts on the internet that come up with a search for some common phrase like putin khuilo. Pity I don't know what they're saying!

 

[Oldman too]

I'm afraid I went for the gong on Newman, but there are all sorts of odd artifacts on the internet that come up with a search for some common phrase like putin khuilo. Pity I don't know what they're saying!

A quick check with Wiki brings up a likely result... including the song. (that which must not be posted in this thread)