Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Astronuc]

Russian troops reportedly attacked their own commanding officer by running him over with a tank after many in their brigade were killed amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk said in a post on Facebook that Russian Col. Yuri Medvedev was attacked after fighting in Ukraine left nearly half of the men in the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade dead, The Washington Post reported.

Tsymbaliuk said the brigade injured both of Medvedev's legs by hitting him with a tank, causing him to be hospitalized, according to the newspaper.

https://thehill.com/policy/internat...-own-commanding-officer-after-suffering-heavy

 

[artis]

IDK. I read several papers BItD that indicated the problem was likely cultural. We are taught to question authority, think 'outside the box', form competitive teams that cooperate, think for ourselves but toward a common good. Compromise. Keep an open mind. Adapt to conditions.

None of these concepts apply to everyone but are not contradicted by a university education. Knowing little about Russian Federation education system, authoritative and totalitarian societies do not seem to promote free thinking or independent action. Colleagues from ex-Warsaw Pact countries describe an inflexible heavy handed system from Russia that discouraged change.

I think overall that assessment is correct but generations do change. The average Russian soldier now is in his 20's , that puts his birth date around 2000, he has grown up with internet and a computer and a smart phone in the past 10 years or so.
It is like @wrobel said if you make an official interview sure they say they love Putin and "glory to motherland" but in private I'm sure many of them hate all of that, well if not before the war then definitely now.

I think the main reason why Russia despite having more of everything is losing this war is simply because there is no motivation and point in general for the troops.
You could put two soldiers side by side - a Ukrainian and a Russian and you couldn't tell them apart in most cases not even by their accent. Well I have met both Russians and Ukrainians in real life and I can't.

You can hear in some of the videos Ukrainian soldiers simply telling Russian ones to "go home"
It's bit surreal it reminds me of those two guys where one is drunk and comes crashing into the other ones bedroom at 4AM in the morning mumbling. Sure enough we do know who has the initiative and who is simply "lost".

 

[BillTre]

You could put two soldiers side by side - a Ukrainian and a Russian and you couldn't tell them apart in most cases not even by their accent. Well I have met both Russians and Ukrainians in real life and I can't.

You can hear in some of the videos Ukrainian soldiers simply telling Russian ones to "go home"
It's bit surreal it reminds me of those two guys where one is drunk and comes crashing into the other ones bedroom at 4AM in the morning mumbling. Sure enough we do know who has the initiative and who is simply "lost".

To me, this is reminiscent many ways of the US Civil War.
Two groups fighting each other (sometimes in the same family), who shared a language, a constitutional government, and a lot of culture.
In the Civil War however, both sides were highly motivated and the very bloody war went on for 4 years.

The Russian solders don't seem so motivated.
I am guessing that the motivation of the Russian home folks, although possibly pretty strong now (due to the state's complete control of mass media) will eventually drop when their lies become more generally obvious.
What effect that might have in the totalitarian Russian state, who knows.

 

[artis]

In the Civil War however, both sides were highly motivated and the very bloody war went on for 4 years.

Exactly, because IIRC south wanted to keep the "status quo" while the north wanted to change and abolish slavery.

The Russian solders don't seem so motivated.
I am guessing that the motivation of the Russian home folks, although possibly pretty strong now (due to the state's complete control of mass media) will eventually drop when their lies become more generally obvious.

You know I have met personally some Russians who are rather passionate about their heritage and motherland to the point where I have to politely explain them some nuances of history as their passion sometimes "rolls over" the hardships and bloodshed that have historically occurred due to their former leaders imperialist ambitions. But there is also one other thing I have noticed. This passion is largely in emotions and words only. It's an armchair "bravado", if you actually told them to go fight in Ukraine or elsewhere for their "heritage" they would sneak away in their premium German sedan and rather drive to whichever country Putin has no grip over.

Sure it's one thing to wave a flag and attach a stupid symbol while being at the comfort of your own city , it;s another thing to actually suffer and die for that same idiotic ideology. I think the conscripts who were robbed of their cell phones and sent from drills on the border directly into Ukraine soon understood this and their motivation was "gone with the wind"

 

[BillTre]

People will sometimes get pissed off, if they realize a family member is killed, due to an institutional lie, even if they are not personally involved in the war.

 

[artis]

People will sometimes get pissed off, if they realize a family member is killed, due to an institutional lie

Just sometimes?

 

[artis]

Lincoln said that "a house divided against itself cannot stand" and that applies to the current US political climate but the same words can be said about the current state of Russian army with regards to Putin and Ukraine, just swap the word "house" for "army"
More and more it seems to me it's the higher ranking folks in Moscow that are much more passionate about this offensive than the "little guy" holding the heavy machine gun on the ground. Although given Putin's fury and the recent rare sightings of some top generals and security people I'm afraid they too might start to question their loyalty.

I think there is another possible interesting turn to this war. Putin might not lose all his home support but he doesn't have to, all that needs to happen is for his troops to largely abandon their effort. So if he doesn't have an army that is willing to listen to him, he then basically becomes who he is in real life "lone and corrupt midget" and his best plan to take Ukraine at that point is to challenge Zelensky to a duel in MMA.

 

[neilparker62]

Paddington re-assessed. (See post #978). With apologies to the original cartoon artist.

 

[Rive]

One more limited credibility news - it's just that it fits really well with the assumed situation.

 

[gleem]

Another Russian General has been reportedly killed bringing up to six the number of generals possibly killed in the war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

 

[Office_Shredder]

Another Russian General has been reportedly killed bringing up to six the number of generals possibly killed in the war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

The article actually says seven

 

[gleem]

The article actually says seven

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

"However the death of Maj Gen Magomed Tushayev of the Chechen national guard has been disputed."

My interpretation is that only six are considered probable.

Does Russia have generals to spare or are they doing field commissioning?

 

[Office_Shredder]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538My interpretation is that only six are considered probable.

I'm not sure what disputed even means here. I can't find anything what online saying he's alive.

Edit: ah Wikipedia has it
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine

 

[Astronuc]

Business Insider reports - Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...m-seized-ukraine-hold-military-secrets-2022-3

Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.
. . .

A complete Krasukha-4 is a two-part system consisting of a command post module and an electronic warfare system, mounted separately on two trucks.
. . .

Meanwhile, Russian forces may be pivoting to occupy E. Ukraine, which will result in a protracted conflict.
https://www.axios.com/russia-donbas-kyiv-military-briefing-20db3a5c-8db5-44b3-b6d2-0a094fb7a49b.html

Russian forces must leave Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea, and Putin must be removed.

 

[artis]

Business Insider reports - Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krasukha_(electronic_warfare_system)

So it's a radio jammer it seems. The thing that interests me is whether they use some special modulated waveform or whether they simply blast the most powerful RF signal you can get from a mobile platform towards a possible target (via a parabolic antenna as it seems) thereby overwhelming the reception and causing either electronics damage or disrupting the original connection causing for a drone to crash for example.

Meanwhile, Russian forces may be pivoting to occupy E. Ukraine, which will result in a protracted conflict.

Well , I'm listening carefully to what the Russians are saying and as things stand now it seems they might resort back to simply grabbing Donbas and Crimea and then negotiating that Ukraine can be Ukraine but those areas need to be incorporated back into Russia.
A local Moscow friendly politician who years ago was regularly traveling to Moscow and had ties to the party "United Russia" has now been elected to EU parliament from our region. He no longer affiliates with Moscow or Putin, not sure about his personal allegiance but still. He also said that this is the "gameplan" now. Given his former friends and their knowledge I would believe him. Also the battlefield situation seems to be heading that direction.

 

[artis]

See the second video, its Russian journalist and state TV pundit Vladimir Solovyov , talking before invasion and now few days ago. To paraphrase what he says , before invasion it was like "we will go and take Ukraine and Kyiv" now he said "we have to understand we are fighting the second biggest army in Europe after ourselves"
Now the "read between the lines" part tells me that if he (being an absolute Putin loyalist and mouthpiece) says something like that on live TV then the mood and expectations have definitely changed for those that know better... sure I don't know what Putin thinks but I don't think his stupid, he must realize that the low morale, the Ukraine hatred for him and the years long corruption has done their part in making his plans go bust.

Here is my own speculation , it might just be that his "off ramp" is claiming he "denazified" Ukraine and took the separatist controlled territories if eventually that is all he can do militarily. Plus the added bonus of Zelensky writing on paper that they won't join NATO or something along those lines.

 

[Astronuc]

To be on the 'right side' of history, Russia must forfeit Donbas and Crimea, and Putin must be removed. Russia must pay a steep penalty for its aggression, i.e., the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, the mass murder of civilians and the destruction of real property in Ukraine. Nothing short of that is right.

We're already in a low key stage of World War III, since Russia has its allies, and Ukraine has it's allies by virtue of US and EU providing material support to Ukraine while sanctioning Russia. Otherwise, we'll remain in a protracted war until it flares into a larger conflict.

The Russian invasion should have been stopped before it got started.

 

[wrobel]

The Russian invasion should have been stopped before it got started

Appeasement policy has failed again.

 

[neilparker62]

Here is my own speculation , it might just be that his "off ramp" is claiming he "denazified" Ukraine and took the separatist controlled territories if eventually that is all he can do militarily. Plus the added bonus of Zelensky writing on paper that they won't join NATO or something along those lines.

He had better find that "off ramp" quickly - every day brings a new tragedy the latest being that poor little gymnast (11 yrs old) shot in the mouth by Russian soldiers who opened fire on the vehicle she and her family were fleeing in. Adding to the pathos in the child's mother's words: "when they (the Russian soldiers) realized their mistake , they gave her daughter first aid and sent her to a hospital in a nearby (Russian occupied) town."

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/25/ukraine-childrens-hospital-lead-watson-pkg-vpx.cnn

 

[wrobel]

Vladimir Solovyov

that is real hell. I do not think that his barking directly reflects moods in Kremlin

 

[Vanadium 50]

Nothing short of that is right.

But will you accept less than what's right for an end to the war?

 

[wrobel]

A local Moscow friendly politician who years ago was regularly traveling to Moscow and had ties to the party "United Russia"

may I ask who is this nice guy?

 

[artis]

that is real hell. I do not think that his barking directly reflects moods in Kremlin

Well he has so far said everything that Putin would like to say himself.

may I ask who is this nice guy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils_Ušakovs

This guy. In 2012 he supported the referendum for 2 official state languages in Latvia, the second well you guessed it...
Truth be told this referendum was initiated by Russian politicians and activists who started gathering the necessary number of "signatures" to initiate such a referendum per constitution, Nils at some point supported this idea and it gave it "steam" as he was a major political figure known to many.
The organizers knew the results would be negative and the idea struck down and it eventually was, but it was made as a tactical strike against the nationalist politician ideas of teaching in official state schools only in official state language - Latvian.

Then some 8 years later after serving as mayor of Riga, they voted him as one of the members to go serve in EU parliament. He now speaks openly against the war etc. Well it could be that he has understood where his career lies and therefore changed his thoughts although even though he was pro Russia sort of I don't think I have ever seen/heard him being pro war.
Not sure whether you are informed of this but due to the large Russian population here we tend to have two kinds of politicians, those that have majority Latvian backing and those that have mostly Russian one.
He is the Russian guy.
But then again we have a population of about 1.9 million of which some 400 000 or more are Russians.

The large Russian population here as well as in other former Soviet republics is possibly the greatest trick and future "investment" the Kremlin did during the era of USSR as this changes the demographics because real people marry and mix and blend and it fundamentally alters the overall spirit and political direction of a nation for decades if not forever.
The so called 5th column

 

[wrobel]

Well he has so far said everything that Putin would like to say himself.

I think that his function is not to translate Putin's thoughts but to cultivate hate, aggression, military psychosis, "enemy-around" viewpoint, national swagger etc. Eventually, the main purpose of all these things including the war is to shift society's attention from inner problems to outside and to explain inner mainly economic problems by external enemies.

 

[artis]

I think that his function is not to translate Putin's thoughts but to cultivate hate, aggression, military psychosis, "enemy-around" viewpoint, national swagger etc. Eventually, the main purpose of all these things including the war is to shift society's attention from inner problems to outside and to explain inner mainly economic problems by external enemies.

I agree, he helps Putin's thoughts become a reality.
Solovyov reminds me of "that guy" in a party who himself is a nobody but is friends with the "tough guy", and even before you get to meet the "tough guy", his lap dog "that guy" has already boasted about how he will put you in your place if you dare to even look at that girl, or spill this drink etc...

Like with many of the Putin fan boys, it's hard to understand whether they really believe what they say or whether it's just a way to "get by" or "make a living" or have those "15 minutes of fame" in the TV.
But I do know one thing, some of the older folks with nostalgia do believe in people like him.
No kidding I know a local 90 year old who has saved 70 year old newspaper from the USSR where a propaganda article claims "Queen of England congratulates Stalin on something" I forgot what it was.
I still remember searching all of internet to find a source and then after some time realizing that I'm fooled by a 70 year old lie...

 

[Oldman too]

https://www.science.org/content/article/dirty-bomb-ingredients-go-missing-chornobyl-monitoring-lab
I hadn't seen this prior to today, anyone else?

 

[anorlunda]

Putin must be removed.

I agree. Nevertheless, the moment of regime change will be our largest risk for nuclear holocaust. Putin himself (or any other official in Russia with the authority to order the launch) may do that on the way out the door as revenge.

If there are safeguards in Russia to prevent launch on the authority of a single person, I don't know about them.

Even if 2/3 of the Russian stockpile of 6000 warheads are duds, the remaining 1/3, plus the all-out nuclear response from our side, could bring the end of the world; the "On The Beach" scenario.

October 24, 1962 I was away at college. On that day, all of us students listening to the radio feared that the world would end in 30 minutes (counting 20 minutes for the Russian ICBMs to reach us). There was no hope of getting near one of the 2 phones in the dorm to call home and say goodbye. Then the radio announced that the Russian ships turned back, and we could inhale. I can never ever forget those moments, and I sure don't want to repeat them.

 

[vela]

Even if 2/3 of the Russian stockpile of 6000 warheads are duds, the remaining 1/3, plus the all-out nuclear response from our side, could bring the end of the world; the "On The Beach" scenario.

On Michael Shermer's podcast with John Mueller, a professor of political scientist at Ohio State University, Shermer brought up a point made by a colleague who thinks western media misunderstood what Putin said.

From the show notes:

Putin seems like a long-term strategic thinker and it didn’t seem in character for him to be making such a rash statement. So I watched a YouTube video of him making this alleged statement. Nowhere in the statement does he mention the word “nuclear.” None of the simultaneous translators mentioned the word “nuclear.” Here is what he says in Russian:

Поэтому приказы Министра обороны и начальника генерального штаба перевести сила сдерживания российской армии в режим в особый режим несения боевого дежурства.

This can be translated to:

Therefore, the orders of the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff to transfer the deterrence force of the Russian army into a special mode of combat duty…

Russian nuclear forces are not part of the army, navy, or Air Force of Russia. They are a separate branch which is called the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Russian Federation (Ракетные войска стратегического назначения Российской Федерации).

If he had wanted to put his “nuclear forces” on high alert, as has been stated or implied in almost all Western media, he probably would’ve referred to this particular branch.

 

[Oldman too]

On Michael Shermer's podcast with John Mueller, a professor of political scientist at Ohio State University, Shermer brought up a point made by a colleague who thinks western media misunderstood what Putin said.

From the show notes:

Thank you for posting that link, I've been a "Skeptic" as well as fan of Science Based Medicine for some time.
It's great to see the page you referenced, very nice source.

 

[anorlunda]

Russian nuclear forces are not part of the army, navy, or Air Force of Russia. They are a separate branch which is called the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Russian Federation

They have to take orders from someone. Besides, why should we think that anyone in the West, even podcast hosts or pundits, knows the internal details of how command and control works in Russia?

 

[hutchphd]

I can never ever forget those moments, and I sure don't want to repeat them.

I was 10 yrs old. This speech, which I remember vividly, marks the end of my childhood:

 

[strangerep]

Well , I'm listening carefully to what the Russians are saying and as things stand now it seems they might resort back to simply grabbing Donbas and Crimea and then negotiating that Ukraine can be Ukraine but those areas need to be incorporated back into Russia.
[...] Also the battlefield situation seems to be heading that direction.

But now this morning I hear about renewed attacks in western Ukraine.

When will people realize that you can't believe a word spoken by a totalitarian state, but only what they actually do. (Sigh.)

 

[wrobel]

The large Russian population here as well as in other former Soviet republics is possibly the greatest trick and future "investment" the Kremlin

relax; Kremlin has much more serious difficulties than warming up problems in Latvia. I think that actually Russia will never be the same after this crisis. I think that now we can see the end of the very prolonged post-soviet period in Europe and of the very very long imperialistic period of Russian history. And the Russian population seeing all of that will also relax and begin to learn Latvian language.

By the way I was in Riga as a boy long ago. I remember only two things: the Doms Cathedral and the statue of a cat on the roof of an old building :)

 

[wrobel]

May I ask: Switzerland is not a member of NATO and it does not care that NATO is around. Why Putin does?

 

[Bandersnatch]

Now the situation is a mirror opposite. Ukraine is talking about joining NATO, publicly, and after they do, there will be no way for Putin to do anything about a possibility of NATO nukes being located to Ukraine.

NATO has had the possibility of placing nukes ~80 miles from St. Petersburg, or ~360 miles from Moscow for almost two decades now. A possibility about which Putin has no way to do anything about. But NOW those nukes would materialise on the Russian border, because going from 360 miles to 280 miles to Moscow is just the thing NATO has been waiting for all this time. NOW it would be sensible to start antagonising a volatile nuclear powerhouse that everyone has so far been appeasing politically and integrating with economically.

These are not facts you're peddling, these are at best unlikely hypotheticals and uncharitable spin. At worst - verbatim Russian talking points.
The facts see one nation invading another. But I guess it's not the invader's fault, eh? Why are you hitting yourself, Ukraine? Why are you hitting yourself?