Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

Finally I see a CNN reporter actually on the battle ground, this particular report is rather good
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-grenade-chance-newday-vpx.cnn

 

[artis]

In one smaller town locals protest in the presence of Russian troops and call them to go home

 

[artis]

Asking people to pronounce a specific word in Ukrainian to spot infiltrators under camouflage

 

[PeroK]

Asking people to pronounce a specific word in Ukrainian to spot infiltrators under camouflage

It's called a shibboleth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shibboleth

 

[artis]

I think I now get the picture, the reason Ukrainians have detained so much "children" in uniforms is because before the attack on Ukraine Russia held a military drill with Belarus near Ukrainian border, it consisted of mostly young recruits from the obligatory service , mostly 18-20 year olds.
Then after the drill ended they were simply told to "go straight and make a hard left" just into Ukraine.
Seems like Kremlin knows Russian forces would have mixed feelings fighting with other essentially Russians so they sort of mumbled the explanation of what has to be done.

They used similar tactic back in ww2 when NKVD agents walked behind front lines and shot every one who tried to run away. Only back then Russians had much more fighting spirit because the enemy was clear , this time their fighting their own and sending kids to do it.
Like the average age diffrence between men in Ukrainian forces VS those of Russia who are deployed to Ukraine is about 20 years

Seems like Russia is now also "carpet bombing" Ukraine Infrastructure and cities


This one is really crazy, the aftermath of what seems a blown up Russian convoy not sure what blew it up but the devastation seems beyond belief, tank parts scattered like cat litter

 

[geordief]

asking people to pronounce a specific word in Ukrainian to spot infiltrators under camouflage

More power to the Ukranian linguists

 

[mathwonk]

Thank you @PeroK. At last I know what Dieudonne' meant in railing against "slavish subservience to the shibboleth of numerical interpretation at any cost" when introducing his conceptual treatment of several variable calculus in Foundations of modern analysis, chapter VIII.

 

[artis]

There is some black irony in war
A bomb dropped on a Ukrainian hardware store and set it on fire. The store is named "epicenter"...

 

[artis]

 

[fresh_42]

 

[Keith_McClary]

Russia has been severely attacked twice in its younger history.

Does that include the Canadian invasion?

 

[Keith_McClary]

Casualties are worse than the US invasion of Panama. Or three years of deaths from US mines and "bombies" in Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

 

[StevieTNZ]

I've already donated NZD$50 to Unicef and AUD$50 to the Red Cross to help those in Ukraine, or displaced.

But I also think about those in Russia who don't want this war, who have their currency cripple; those arrested for protesting; they will suffer. How can we aid those people, also?

 

[artis]

I've already donated NZD$50 to Unicef and AUD$50 to the Red Cross to help those in Ukraine, or displaced.

But I also think about those in Russia who don't want this war, who have their currency cripple; those arrested for protesting; they will suffer. How can we aid those people, also?

Well in Russia many people are poor and frankly have always been so but their not starving exactly, so yes their life will become less joyful but they won't die from hunger that I can tell you with knowledge since I know situation in Russia to a good extent both currently as well as historically.
There is no real way you can aid them , not one that I would know.
Now I can't say the same about those who are in Ukraine now, they will face food shortages and many will face death if this goes on.
These coming days starting tonight will be important, I have a feeling Kremlin got the message and has decided to finish off what they started, this time with all they got.
They know there is no going back removing sanctions unless ofocurse they agree to denounce Putin and change their whole leadership which is highly unlikely. They also know that leaving Ukraine now basically means defeat not just politically but strategically because after all they have done it is certain that if they leave Ukraine NATO forces will if not officially then covertly move into Ukraine and Ukraine will be accepted as a candidate state for EU for which talks already underway
There really is no option for them to accomplish anything if they just leave then they have only lost.
So my own guess is this. They will obliterate that country and stay there. I have a feeling that they sort of "danced around the bush" so far trying to avoid the worst of international blowback and tried not killing civilians.
Arguably very few civilian casualties have happened so far. This is true. But just like in Syria when they saw that they are met with fierce resistance and now they also know they are met with all the sanctions they will ever get they have nothing more to lose, it's rock bottom.
This is basically like the situation in a fight where the opponent strikes and seems to win but then the underdog sees that the opponent has run out of further options and then he just goes in for the kill as he has nothing more to lose but only to gain. Russia arguably has lost almost all in terms of diplomacy and international stance, so now they can only gain and the gain can be the territory of Ukraine. I suspect the attention to detail to avoid civilian casualties has ended and they will just engage from now on.
, unless something that I have failed to take into account happens, well see, this is my summation as of how it currently seems, I don't say this often about my own remarks but this time let's all hope I'm wrong

 

[fresh_42]

 

[Office_Shredder]

@artis , I think what you're missing is that the west could choose to intervene militarily if it wanted to. If Russia decides to kill 10 million Ukrainian civilians as part of its push to take the country, and Europe decides to take the west half of Ukraine for itself to protect civilians, is Russia really going to launch nukes over that? Probably not? The assumption that there is nothing Russia can do to provoke an actual military response seems like a bad one, though I guess it might be one that Russia makes

 

[Frabjous]

This was on CNN.

WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/gallery/ukraine-girl-killed/index.html

 

[fresh_42]

The latest count I have heard has been 20 little girls in total.

 

[StevieTNZ]

This was on CNN.

WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/gallery/ukraine-girl-killed/index.html

I read that story on stuff.co.nz yesterday. It was really hard to hold back the tears and I had to pause for a moment.

 

[fresh_42]

I read that story on stuff.co.nz yesterday. It was really hard to hold back the tears and I had to pause for a moment.

I have seen an (est.) four-year-old at the border among the refugees who said "I do not want to die!" This is nothing a kid should even think about.

 

[Keith_McClary]

If Russia decides to kill 10 million Ukrainian civilians

That would be more civilians than the US killed in Korea, Vietnam and the so-called War on Terror.

 

[Keith_McClary]

 

[Office_Shredder]

That would be more civilians than the US killed in Korea, Vietnam and the so-called War on Terror.

I'm just arguing there is probably a breaking point where NATO takes some sort of action even if it's not directly attacked. I picked a number that I thought was implausibly large, I don't actually expect Russia to do this

 

[artis]

is Russia really going to launch nukes over that?

I think yes. Make no mistake Putin is not the only Russian to actually be willing to level US off the map if need be at the expense of losing his own beautiful ill gotten palaces and other nice things, including the cities of his own country.
Quite frankly it is maybe good that Putin is the one in Kremlin right now, Russia has had people in Kremlin in the past who have been even more aggressive and there are people who would also like to take Putin's place now who are more aggressive than him.
It's not like his the best but definitely not the worst person to have authority over Russia.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky once said that being a NATO country in Europe is worse than not being a NATO country in Europe, when asked why, he replied, because if there is a war between NATO and Russia they would first obliterate the countries having NATO soldiers on them. If anything , again risking being unpopular, which I believe I already am so much like Russia I have nothing to lose ,let me say this one thing.

US is partly to blame for all of this, After WW2 US approached former foes like Japan and Germany with peace and good diplomacy, the result was that they formed friendship as much as one can call it such, the result is that Japan is a prospering and peaceful country and Germany , one of the worst evil empires in history turned into a prosperous and safe country and an ally.

How did the US approach Russia? Well first of all they thought that they are all powerful and acted arrogantly , some members even now here think that it was the US that destroyed the USSR which is naive at best, I have met many Americans who think like that and they all also shared a rather naive look at history in general. USSR collapsed because of the will of the people of the USSR , Americans sure tried and also lost a lot while trying, but eventually it was the people from the inside and the absurdly idiotic economic policies, those were the real reasons why the USSR fell. What should the US have done? Simple, tried to befriend Russia and especially Russians, just like it did with Japan and Germany.
Putin claims that, among other, things Ukraine tries to get WMD's , is that true? Likely not , but then again US said the same about Hussein and it was also untrue. Why am I making this comparison?
Because unless we see that both Russia and US have made bad decisions and lost while doing so we cannot start from an equal footing. US should have not looked to the former USSR as some great enemy they have finally outlived, instead they should have opened up and shown Russians that war is meaningless and prosperity is better than Putin and propaganda.
Once people see that then people like Putin cannot hold on to power because they lose this main attraction of theirs which is the "perpetual outside enemy" threat against which only a "strongman" can defend.

I will say it again, NATO went too far, once you have a man like Putin in Kremlin you can't really hope to just fulfill the wishes of every country bordering Russia and not get a result like this. Especially the larges country in Europe that has the longest most sensitive border with Russia. NATO should really get better strategists, honestly.

PS. Don't read my opinion as me being on someone's side. I'm just putting 2+2 together. Peace in world is not just a wishing contest or a love parade, its first and foremost a wise strategy and plan to both keep aggressors at bay while not destroying balance.
Since NATO cannot simply oust Putin then they need to take his wishes into account when making a move.
And truth be told as I said before, Putin is not the only man in Russia who doesn't like the idea of Ukraine in NATO. Ehh this is a never ending circle I guess.

 

[artis]

PS. @PeroK, given your always skeptical of what I say, why don't you give yourself an analysis and ideas of how we should approach the situation at hand? It's one thing to criticize it's another to come up with better ideas. Please , give better opinions, the stage is yours.

 

[PeroK]

PS. @PeroK, given your always skeptical of what I say, why don't you give yourself an analysis and ideas of how we should approach the situation at hand? It's one thing to criticize it's another to come up with better ideas. Please , give better opinions, the stage is yours.

I'm not interested in clogging this thread with personal theorising about history and politics.

 

[fresh_42]

I'm not interested in clogging this thread with personal theorising about history and politics.

Facts can be really disturbing, indeed. I on the other hand am convinced that one cannot understand even a bit about the current situation without historical, sociological, political, and economical knowledge of how Russia under Putin works and what led to that situation. If one ignores all that, then this thread is meaningless. Just another news channel makes no sense. I think it is safe to say that we all condemn this war. To confirm someone's prejudices might be pleasant for that person, but it also constitutes the refusal to put these prejudices to the test.

And before you report me again for some flimsy reason: This is neither an apology nor a justification of Putin's war. It is only the note, that facts that describe the entire situation, not just bullets, shouldn't be ignored.

I tried to ban myself from replying in this thread but the software didn't allow it. It makes little sense just to repeat mainstream opinions on and on again without discussing them because they do not please certain members.

 

[Jarvis323]

I think yes. Make no mistake Putin is not the only Russian to actually be willing to level US off the map if need be at the expense of losing his own beautiful ill gotten palaces and other nice things, including the cities of his own country.
Quite frankly it is maybe good that Putin is the one in Kremlin right now, Russia has had people in Kremlin in the past who have been even more aggressive and there are people who would also like to take Putin's place now who are more aggressive than him.
It's not like his the best but definitely not the worst person to have authority over Russia.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky once said that being a NATO country in Europe is worse than not being a NATO country in Europe, when asked why, he replied, because if there is a war between NATO and Russia they would first obliterate the countries having NATO soldiers on them.

By your logic, maybe you can say this is also Latvia's fault for joining NATO? Would you argue that Latvia should offer to Putin to relinquish their NATO membership in order to stop the war? Maybe you can offer Putin control of Latvia too?

 

[Office_Shredder]

.

US is partly to blame for all of this, After WW2 US approached former foes like Japan and Germany with peace and good diplomacy, the result was that they formed friendship as much as one can call it such, the result is that Japan is a prospering and peaceful country and Germany , one of the worst evil empires in history turned into a prosperous and safe country and an ally.

How did the US approach Russia?

This is somewhat ahistorical. The US approached Japan and Germany by occupying them for a decade, totally obliterating their government, removing everyone from power, installing their own people at the top, and crushing the populace with propaganda while ruthlessly hunting down and removing from society the people who were deemed most at fault for the previous behavior.

If Russia volunteers to try the same thing I'm sure the US would be willing to give it a shot. This didn't actually work in Iraq and Afghanistan though, so we might not remember how to actually make this work...

 

[Mike S.]

[Swedish neutrality, German pacifism]

That was just warm-up. Killing Swiss neutrality is much more impressive. :)

 

[geordief]

That was just warm-up. Killing Swiss neutrality is much more impressive. :)

Seems like a good move,whatever about their neutrality.

Would that be where they might expect to stash their cash or are there other places?

 

[hutchphd]

And before you report me again for some flimsy reason: This is neither an apology nor a justification of Putin's war. It is only the note, that facts that describe the entire situation, not just bullets, shouldn't be ignored.

First you kill the vicious dog. Then you worry about its pedigree..

 

[Oldman too]

Meanwhile on the Digital Front...
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/ne...its-it-army-has-taken-down-key-russian-sites/

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/ne...ternal-chats-leaked-after-siding-with-russia/

 

[Baluncore]

The Swedish posture of “neutrality” is virtual. It simply permits them to remain unaligned, and three faced. Sweden has always been expert at playing the two sides against each other, while it protected it's own interests and independence. Swedish politicians must learn to step back, and keep their mouths shut, while voicing platitudes, and sympathy for the victims on both sides.

Switzerland is no different. It's historical neutrality has always been thinly disguised unaligned pragmatism, aimed at maintaining it's independence.

Independent “neutral” countries like Sweden and Switzerland have always been needed as conduits for other country's underground activities and communications.

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine uses Turkish drones against Russian tanks and armoured vehicles​

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...-as-videos-show-destroyed-russia-tanks-2022-2

As Russia pounded Ukraine in the opening days of its invasion, the defenders credited a new piece of equipment with helping them fight back — the Bayraktar TB2 drone.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine represents the first outing in a major conflict for the Bayraktar, an armed drone with a 12-meter wingspan and a distinctive triangular tail section.

It is produced by the Turkish weapons manufacturer Baykar, https://baykartech.com/en/uav/bayraktar-tb2/ the drones can reach altitudes of 25,000 feet and fly for 27 continuous hours, operated remotely from up to 300 km away. Each one can carry up to four laser-guided bombs or rockets, for an estimated total payload of 150 kilograms.

Ukraine https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-army-receives-first-bayraktar-armed-uavs-from-turkey/ but didn't use them in combat until last year. Its armed forces published a video of the first time one was used, to destroy a separatist piece of artillery in the Donbas:

I think Ukraine should have been better prepared, even as late as last week after a week of warnings. Ukraine has had a year or two to build up defenses.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/...-plane-destroyed-ukraine-scli-intl/index.html
An AN-225 transport aircraft was destroyed by Russian missiles. Why wasn't that aircraft removed to a safe nation a week before?