Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

Then what?

I have no idea. I think Putin already lost this war. An occupation of such a large country without peoples' agreement can hardly be sold as a victory. My hope is that the sanctions will lead to Putin's replacement and end the war that way.

 

[fresh_42]

Up to the definition of 'regime'. The Russian political leadership is a very complex mixture of various factors, and is unlikely to fundamentally change anytime soon, even in case they losing fail in this war.
Putin might be replaced, so 'spice wealth must flow'.

Maybe, but Kaminer knows definitely better than you and me.

 

[snorkack]

I do not believe that most Russians, either common or mid-level, deliberately lie. They express positions which they have been persuaded of, much of which are incorrect. There are some people who do lie to others - addressing things which the targets of the lies find credible but which the liar knows to be false.

I saw an argument of someone who described the description of Russians and Ukrainians as "brother people" as "believing Putin´s propaganda". With a lot of good examples appealing to the experience of people in Soviet Union... but all of this suits a different interpretation.

The story was the experience of international collective in Soviet Union - the army. And similar attitudes in towns full of migrants from various places.
The Baltic people were picked on for being "fascists" - but respected as educated westerners compared to Russians.
The Central Asians were looked down on as savages.
And the Ukrainians were looked on as... better than Central Asians but not quite equal to Russians. As something like uneducated/bumpkin, defective Russians.

This attitude... Well, I do not know how this was in 19th century. In late 17th, early 18th century, Russians did look at some Ukrainians as educated compared to them, coming from the West in Poland, in first half of 18th century most Russian upper clergy was Ukrainian, but since Catherine II, no more.

Russian folklore has the popular figure of Stupid Ivan. A younger brother who is regarded as disabled by his elder brothers, economically abused - and eventually it is Stupid Ivan who performs the feat that his elder brethren do not.

The problem for Ukrainians for over 200 years of living in one country with Russia was that they could not really get over that Stupid Ivan status. Brother people? An Ukrainian poetess in 2014 after Maidan wrote a Russian poem addressed to Russians, which got popular saying that "We can never be brothers". One interpretation. And yet another interpretation is that Ukrainians have problems of being treated as Stupid Ivans - not just little brothers to be protected and cared for, but also little in the sense of being belittled and bullied - for 200+ years.

What happened to these attitudes after 1991?
I have not followed the public opinion that closely. But it seems that, precisely because Baltics were expected to be higher status (like Finland and Poland who left Russia in 1917-1918), there was less pressure. And the success of Baltics in terms of economic prosperity and political internal stability confirmed the positive prejudices and expectations, and denied Russia internal leverage to interfere.
In Central Asia, the prejudice of lower status of these people were also confirmed by the status of countries after 1991. They were not Russia´s puppets! Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan had rulers who were their own men balancing between Russia, West and China, and not threat to Russia. So Russia did not feel threatened. A poor outsider going his own way did not trigger cycle of resentment.

Ukraine... Kuchma and Janukovych tried to be their own men balancing between Russia and West.

But the problem is that problems inside Ukraine brought them down. Little Ivan gradually, with relaxations, reconciliations and new crises started to kick back against bullying. Because the perceived status was close, but disputed by Ukraine, the disagreements on status escalated out of control. So it is understandable to interpret it "We were never brothers" - but you can deny that slogan while giving alternative reason for Ukraine´s hostility.

 

[artis]

The story was the experience of international collective in Soviet Union - the army. And similar attitudes in towns full of migrants from various places.
The Baltic people were picked on for being "fascists" - but respected as educated westerners compared to Russians.
The Central Asians were looked down on as savages.
And the Ukrainians were looked on as... better than Central Asians but not quite equal to Russians. As something like uneducated/bumpkin, defective Russians.

I tried to stay out of this discussion but once I read your post I couldn't resist. I am positively shocked by your commentary, it is very on point, my own father who served in the Red army couldn't have made a better 4 sentence summary of his personal experience. Mind I ask you what is your background in terms of where you live?

Your also right on Baltics, our economic and cultural difference + our pre WW2 independence are strong arguments against Russian meddling here.
Estonians some years ago took down a controversial Soviet monument there was much backlash , but it was short lived and it ended with nothing, so we do have historically more leverage.

 

[artis]

I've seen this claim several times, but always skipping the actual argument. What is it? Pre-emptive response: yes, it is unreasonable.

I suppose you did not read the argument I gave here multiple times? or maybe you skipped it thinking it's a low quality one

 

[Rive]

Maybe, but Kaminer knows definitely better than you and me.

I don't know about that, but as long as he can't provide the sufficient amount of equations for a Q.E.D. we are still free to discuss it

 

[artis]

 

[DennisN]

I have personally not commented on history (at least as far back as World War II).
Not because I don't think it's interesting, but because I think there are important differences between the world then and today which must be taken into account.

Just to mention some big differences:

* The European Union (EU) did not exist
* NATO did not exist
* Nuclear weapons did not exist

Also, remember that countries themselves are very different today (comparing to 1939), e.g.

• Russia is a different country today, and the Soviet Union does not exist
• Germany is a different country today, it is a member of the European Union (EU) and NATO (and previously less inclined to build up their military forces)
• Sweden, my country, is different today. We are a member of the European Union (EU) and we have had close collaborations with the West and NATO. We are not, and will not be neutral with respect to Ukraine. We will support democracy, oppose authoritharian regimes and oppose violations of human rights. Thus we are supporting Ukraine. It's not surprising to me at all, as in some respects we are not that different from Ukraine; we are both much smaller countries than Russia and neither country is a NATO member. Though one difference is that we are members of the European Union (EU) and Ukraine is not.

In short: The world is very different than it was in 1939.
We are not living in 1939. We are living in 2022.

 

[Maelstorm]

The highlighted country (bold by me) does no longer exist, it is now two separate sovereign countries namely,
The Czech republic and Slovakia, both beautiful places,lovely architecture and nature, I have been in both.

I realize that by looking at the map. But in 1991, it was still Czechoslovakia.

This was also a form of "The winner takes it all" as has been the case in history countless times before.
The Soviet Red army fought Germans and as Germans retreated and ran towards the end of their war effort Red army troops closed in from all countries to the east of Germany (Poland, Czech republic, the Baltics etc.)
While allied forces like US, UK, closed from west, the Red army and west met near Torgau along the Elbe river, a historical moment in the war as Germany was at that point effectively cut in two and for all practical purposes defeated. It was just that after the war ended unlike the Americans the Soviets did not leave but stayed in the parts that they had previously fought Germans, after all this was the original plan between Hitler and Stalin known famously as "Molotov - Ribbentrop pact" in a bit changed way. This pact is notorious for it's secret protocol that basically divided Europe between Stalin and Hitler, just that Hitler made mistakes tried to grab too much and got killed so in the end Stalin got more of his part.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov–Ribbentrop_Pact
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbe_Day

I do remember this. Stalin's actions against Germany was due to Hitler invading Russia. But yes, Stalin didn't leave and kept his gains while the US stepped back and gave the countries back to their people.

The First Ukrainian front by the way was a battalion assembled from the people from what was back then "The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist republic" and

Given we here know this history well, it is ever more so sad to see the very people who once fought side by side, and now their grandsons are fighting one another for no practical benefit, unlike back then.

Being in the United States, history tends to focus on major issues in the western hemisphere and US interventions abroad. I have very little knowledge about the history in that region of the world. That is interesting though. I can't remember if it was WWI or WWII, but I remember from social studies class back in the 1980s that something like 1 in 4 Russians had a weapon, and they weren't sure if the bullets they had would fit the gun.

Currently I would say this is almost exclusively dependent on the actions of NATO and Putin and no one else, if either steps too far or makes a bad mistake we could wake up to a totally different reality, so as bad as it sounds in a sense it's safer that the US current administration is sort of slow on doing anything about this. At least I feel safer that way, because just in case Putin has lost his mind in the way in which @fresh_42 here has said multiple times then making him lose it completely might be bad for all of us.

People are claiming that Putin is unhinged. It has been said that he is deathly afraid of COVID, so he's probably kept himself isolated for the past 2 years. We have all seen reports of people going nuts due to extended isolation, even committing suicide in some cases. So this is not beyond the realm of possibility. Hopefully, someone with with enough courage to say no to orders to launch ICBMs will be manning the station if that order should come.

Us Latvians sent a load of US stingers to Ukraine just as this war began now few days ago, so there let me be proud for a second of our decisive and brave actions for a second here just as I am proud of Ukrainians exceeding all expectation and their president even though a comic by profession showing bravery orders of magnitude larger than most EU current leaders have.

Ask the Russians about those stinger missiles when they invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s. You may be in for a fist fight.

No worries, Russians have had their fair share of idiocy too. Khruschev liked alcohol quite well, and it seems world fate in terms of WW3 has been somewhat influenced by what happened at a bar
https://apnews.com/article/66d356ded2c3906342c6892532772463
https://warontherocks.com/2014/10/the-bartender-who-accidentally-saved-the-world/

That is actually scary. I do remember watching a documentary about NATO exercises in 1982-1983 when we came close. The Russians thought that the exercises were a cover to launch a sneak attack on the USSR. When Regan got wind of it, he called in the USSR ambassador and told them what was going on.

At the time, you had two superpowers who did not trust each other. One mistake, one miscalculation and the world would be destroyed. I would really hate to see it come back to that.

I suggest a good read not that long, just goes to show that sometimes world history changing events get built upon little random details that slip in and out here and there.

I don't know a lot about the history in that area. I do remember reading that Hitler and Stalin were going to secretly divide Poland.

 

[DennisN]

I don't know a lot about the history in that area. I do remember reading that Hitler and Stalin were going to secretly divide Poland.

Correct. That was the secret protocol of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

 

[Maelstorm]

That part is unlikely. He wanted to grab what was available. I don´t think Stalin planned for Cold War and West doubling down at Yalta and Potsdam, or for Iron Curtain through the middle of Europe. Stalin would have welcomed local communists taking over in Italy and France, as seemed possible in 1945-1946... and if they had, they would have had the alignment but lack of tight political control like the local communists in Yugoslavia or China.

I don't think he planned for the Cold War either. But I think you are right though. The reason given is usually only part of the truth. He gives the buffer as a reason, but there's more to it. However, Stalin was paranoid which is why the purge in the 1930s happened. So after two world wars within 30 years and getting invaded, I can see how his paranoia might have gotten the better of him.

 

[Maelstorm]

I only saw Threads a few years ago, horrific. I refused to watch it at the time.

The person who directed the sound of that movie did a very good job of capturing the moment. Then the silence when the warhead hit. It was unnerving to say the least. The thing about horror movies is that you know they are not real. With movies like these, what's really frightening is that the movie can become reality in short order.

Some better news today from our PM

"In a speech after the press conference on Tuesday, Mr Johnson said the UK had set aside £220m in humanitarian and emergency aid, and placed 1,000 British troops on standby to help with the humanitarian response in Europe.
He said the government was making it easier for Ukrainians in the UK to "bring their relatives our country", adding this could end up being more than 200,000 people."

Can you guys across the pond take in that many people? That's a lot to absorb. I think if push came to shove, my country would help take in a few of those too, or at the very least send aid to help those who do take in refuges.

 

[artis]

Being in the United States, history tends to focus on major issues in the western hemisphere and US interventions abroad. I have very little knowledge about the history in that region of the world. That is interesting though. I can't remember if it was WWI or WWII, but I remember from social studies class back in the 1980s that something like 1 in 4 Russians had a weapon, and they weren't sure if the bullets they had would fit the gun.

The Russian weapon thing is a bit exaggerated but they had less weaponry and not as good supplies as Germans that is true, at the beginning of the war they were also short on tanks for which they made up towards the second half since the Russian T34 is a very simple and robust machine which they mass produced.
All in all the Russian weapons were simpler and they had less of them but they were more robust, Germans had better weapons and were better prepared from the start but facing the harsh Russian winter and hellish ground conditions (Russian swamps , dirt, sand, cold) their weapons often malfunctioned and the nature back then sort of did some favors for the Soviets.

I have very little knowledge about the history in that region of the world.

Well I know other Americans that are friends of mine who say the same, so naturally I thought I would write some history here but I was told politely that I'm a fool and wasting my time so sorry I guess I'm going to leave those parts out.

 

[snorkack]

People are claiming that Putin is unhinged. It has been said that he is deathly afraid of COVID, so he's probably kept himself isolated for the past 2 years. We have all seen reports of people going nuts due to extended isolation, even committing suicide in some cases. So this is not beyond the realm of possibility. Hopefully, someone with with enough courage to say no to orders to launch ICBMs will be manning the station if that order should come.

Which is one reason why the hate campaign against Russians or wide range of people inside Russia is counterproductive.
Ordinary Russians are shocked by the war. Men fighting in Russia are shocked by the war. They say they expected that the civilians would welcome them - that is, they thought Zelensky government was supported by a narrow and hated minority, and are surprised to find otherwise. Duh - wouldn´t it have been an easy job for Russian intelligence to find realistic estimates of Ukrainian public opinion and inform the soldiers who were going to meet the civilians? By contrast, the German soldiers in 1914 in France, or 1939 in Poland, 1940 in Norway, France, 1941 in Russia expected the civilians to be resentful and hostile. They were pleasantly surprised in Baltics where locals were welcoming, because Soviets had been worse, but their motivation to fight was not conditional on the welcome of local civilians.

 

[Maelstorm]

@Maelstorm missing from your analysis is that the ex-Soviet bloc countries such as Poland had and have a LOT more to fear from Russia than Russia has to fear from them.

As I mentioned before, I don't have a lot of knowledge about that part of the world, the internal politics behind the iron curtain, etc... Back during the days of the USSR, compliance was brought about by force of arms, bullying the people. What is it like today?

 

[artis]

Ordinary Russians are shocked by the war. Men fighting in Russia are shocked by the war. They say they expected that the civilians would welcome them - that is, they thought Zelensky government was supported by a narrow and hated minority, and are surprised to find otherwise

Nah it's worse yet, from what I'm reading in Russian dissident twitter accounts the military drills that happened at Ukraine border just before the invasion a week ago, were full of obligatory recruits, all of them young, they were given live ammo, and their phones were confiscated. Then when the drills ended they were simply sent into Ukraine and most were given very little info on why.

Russians knew that Russian lads won't be excited about killing their own kind so they simply lied to them and pushed them, you won't most likely see this on CNN but given the situation and details I have a high confidence this is true. The countless amateur videos from Ukrainian fighters also confirm this

 

[fresh_42]

Can you guys across the pond take in that many people?

Germany has had 890,000 immigrants in 2015 alone, all non-European, which made integration harder.
No problem to have some fellow Europeans more.

 

[DennisN]

By the way, recently I came to think of another interesting part of history which, if I remember correctly, is an example of US pilots (in UN) actually engaging Russian pilots (during the Korean War, one of the hot spots during the Cold War):

"MiG Alley" was the name given by United Nations (UN) pilots during the Korean War to the northwestern portion of North Korea, where the Yalu River empties into the Yellow Sea. It was the site of numerous dogfights between UN fighter pilots and their opponents from North Korea (including some unofficially crewed by Soviet airmen) and the People's Republic of China. Soviet-built Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-15 were the aircraft used during most of the conflict, and the area's nickname was derived from them. It was the site of the first large-scale jet-vs-jet air battles, with the North American F-86 Sabre."

Source: MiG Alley (Wikipedia), see also MiG Alley - Soviet role.

 

[Maelstorm]

Which is one reason why the hate campaign against Russians or wide range of people inside Russia is counterproductive.
Ordinary Russians are shocked by the war. Men fighting in Russia are shocked by the war. They say they expected that the civilians would welcome them - that is, they thought Zelensky government was supported by a narrow and hated minority, and are surprised to find otherwise. Duh - wouldn´t it have been an easy job for Russian intelligence to find realistic estimates of Ukrainian public opinion and inform the soldiers who were going to meet the civilians?

Those reports have been broadcast here in the US as well. There are protests happening in Russia. Some very prominent Russians have been speaking out against it. In fact, yesterday, two Russian oligarchs publicly denounced the war, and rumors are circulating that quite a few more are privately telling Putin to stop it. Our news also reported that Putin's generals advised against this. It has also been reported here several times that the soldiers don't really know why they are there, where they are going, or what they are doing. That might have changed within the last couple of days though. However, the soldiers don't like this either.

I can see a scenario where the military rebels against Putin and we have a coup d'etat on our hands.

After doing some research, I found that it seems that Russia has had the same form of government for the past 400-500 years. Land of the Tsars indeed.

 

[Maelstorm]

Nah it's worse yet, from what I'm reading in Russian dissident twitter accounts the military drills that happened at Ukraine border just before the invasion a week ago, were full of obligatory recruits, all of them young, they were given live ammo, and their phones were confiscated. Then when the drills ended they were simply sent into Ukraine and most were given very little info on why.

Russians knew that Russian lads won't be excited about killing their own kind so they simply lied to them and pushed them, you won't most likely see this on CNN but given the situation and details I have a high confidence this is true. The countless amateur videos from Ukrainian fighters also confirm this

Actually, it has been mentioned once or twice.

 

[fresh_42]

Please avoid discussing American history here. It is not doable. And Stalin-Ribbentrop is very borderline, too.

 

[Maelstorm]

Well I know other Americans that are friends of mine who say the same, so naturally I thought I would write some history here but I was told politely that I'm a fool and wasting my time so sorry I guess I'm going to leave those parts out.

I remember about the cold halting the German advance. But those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. As it turns out for some people, they repeat it anyways.

 

[fresh_42]

 

[artis]

And Stalin-Ribbentrop is very borderline, too

And Putin's health is also borderline (as you said)... and Ukraine doesn't have a borderline now. So many borderlines I'm confused

 

[fresh_42]

And Putin's health is also borderline (as you said)... and Ukraine doesn't have a borderline now. So many borderlines I'm confused

The crucial point is that many people use comparisons to
a) justify what otherwise cannot be justified
b) distract from the - for them unpleasant - discussion
c) diminish someone's guilt by relativization

None of these rhetorical methods is appropriate.

I am well aware of the Russian citizens in the Baltic States. Again: Justifications for the murderer of children are not welcome.

 

[artis]

@snorkack , Russians , not all of them, are known to have this "hero complex" , those that have it outside of Russia are rather annoying because to them everything revolves around Russian history and the history of republics gets sort of "forgotten" , sadly I can say similar things about some Americans I have met, I think it's a problem for all large nations.

 

[mathwonk]

I am very grateful for all the perspectives given here, especially by people whose families and countrymen lived through history which for me (except for the "Cuban missile crisis") is mostly stories from a book.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-collapses/ar-AAUraGd

Announcements of aircraft supplied by EU nations appears to be premature. I have to wonder why authorities are making such pronouncements before implementation. Quite possibly, those donating nations don't want to advertise the fact.

Slovakia’s small fleet of MiG-29s are the country’s only fighter jets, and they are being serviced by Russian workers under contract, making their transfer a tough sell in Bratislava.

The Slovakian government is also engaged in talks with Poland to provide protection of Slovak airspace, and until that deal is reached, they need their MiG-29s.

Ooops!

 

[fresh_42]

People here are starting to hoard iodine pills.

 

[fresh_42]

Source? I think they have bombs, but bombs are not missiles. In particular, you can shoot down planes.

There is currently est. 15-20 nuclear missiles on German soil, all under full US control. Germany doesn't have its own bombs, and therefore doesn't need missiles either. I would be surprised if there was more than - possibly wide range - artillery.

 

[Frabjous]

There is currently est. 15-20 nuclear missiles on German soil, all under full US control. Germany doesn't have its own bombs, and therefore doesn't need missiles either. I would be surprised if there was more than - possibly wide range - artillery.

I believe that the US has eliminated nuclear artillery from its arsenal. I believe the bombs are to be released to Germany in the event of war.

 

[fresh_42]

I believe that the US has eliminated nuclear artillery from its arsenal. I believe the bombs are to be released to Germany in the event of war.

The news a few seconds ago talked about up to 20 nuclear bombs in Rheinland-Pfalz.

 

[Frabjous]

The news a few seconds ago talked about up to 20 nuclear bombs in Rheinland-Pfalz.

“Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombsat Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them.”
from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...s-debate-in-germany-touches-a-raw-nato-nerve/

 

[morrobay]

Cold War 2 is better than WW3. So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine. This is time for diplomacy

 

[fresh_42]

So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine.

Because it can't be that Russia is simply taking what it wants. Who will be next? Kasachstan?