Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[SamRoss]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

If it makes you feel any better, Biden is very strongly anti-war. He was a critic of our ongoing wars in the Middle East and the last thing he wants is to get involved in another drawn-out conflict.

 

[sbrothy]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

I have lots of questions, opinions and whatnot about this state of affairs.

I have a hard time understanding why state controlled mass media propaganda is so effective in this day and age. (If it is. Russians seem to have forgotten how they got rid of the last regime, or maybe their economy just improved to the point that they don't care...)

I keep hearing people say that this war is strange to see in the year 2022, although military aggression has been par and parcel for the past several thoudand years.

Ukraine should mount a counter-attack directly into Russia (or perhaps Belarus, I don't think they're really willing to fight up there).

Take the fight to enemy. See how they like it. It seems all bets are off anyway.

I met a celebrating Putin fan the other day. I pointed out that him buying several liters of russian alcohol was kinda non-PC in this day and age. Imagine the heated discussion that followed..

 

[sbrothy]

I think there are a lot of folks wondering how we got here. My observation is that it happened slowly/gradually over the last three or four decades, starting from lukewarm until it is now boiling.

That's another thing I don't understand (massmedia?): How did Ukraine suddenly become part of europe?

It's like Putin is shooting himself in the foot with the fear he's spreading. Drawing NATO closer and closer. But maybe he wants the conflict. I'm probably incredibly naive with these things.

Ah yeah, maybe he's longing for more clearly defined borders. Like in the "good old days".

Like in the good old "apartment bombing" days.

The man is a documented mass murderer. But then again which dictator isnøt? :(

 

[phinds]

If it makes you feel any better, Biden is very strongly anti-war.

Irrelevant. He's not going to START a war, but if Putin does, Biden's anti-war feelings go by the wayside.

 

[Astronuc]

How did Ukraine suddenly become part of europe?

The division between Europe and Asia is somewhat arbitrary. "The boundaries between the continents of Earth are generally a matter of geographical convention."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boundaries_between_the_continents_of_Earth

Western Russia would be considered Europe. Kazakhstan (and the other Stans) would be considered Asia, and in reference to history, Central Asia.

between Asia and Europe (dividing Eurasia): along the Turkish Straits, the Caucasus, and the Urals and the Ural River (historically also north of the Caucasus, along the Kuma–Manych Depression or along the Don River)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boundaries_between_the_continents_of_Earth

It's like Putin is shooting himself in the foot with the fear he's spreading. Drawing NATO closer and closer. But maybe he wants the conflict.

I expect Putin miscalculated badly.

I'm probablt incredible naive with these things.

Not really. The 'experts' didn't see this situation developing as it did. And now, perspectives have shifted seismically.

 

[sbrothy]

The division between Europe and Asia is somewhat arbitrary.

Exactly. Arbitrary. It's like western propaganda (because let's be honest it comes from both sides but thew western part may be more insidious. It's like it's been building over years. Naturally possibly.

Maybe propaganda is just more likely to get you when it's "your own people" distributing it. Gotta read something scholarly about it...

Dunno what happened with the forum software. had a longer thing going on but its probably for the best.

I sure hope he miscalculated, that's fors sure.

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine should mount a counter-attack directly into Russia (or perhaps Belarus, I don't think they're really willing to fight up there).

Ukraine does not have the resources, and they are currently trying to defend their own nation.

 

[sbrothy]

Ukraine does not have the resources, and they are currently trying to defend their own nation.

I'm painfully aware. Wishful thinking. Like mass demonstrations in Russia and civilians traveling *towards* the war. Still... They should. :)

EDIT: Maybe the correct wording is "They ought to and I hope they could and would."

 

[Astronuc]

The New York Times reports: Some Russian Troops are Surrendering or Sabotaging Vehicles, Pentagon Official Says (subscription may be required)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/europe/russia-troops-pentagon.html
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-surrendering-sabotaging-vehicles-130211053.html

WASHINGTON — Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday.

Some entire Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting a surprisingly stiff Ukrainian defense, the official said. A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault. And in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said.

The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments — presumably a mosaic of intelligence including statements from captured Russian soldiers and communications intercepts — or how widespread these setbacks may be across the sprawling battlefield. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational developments.

Hopefully, the Russian military will recall their troops and stop their invasion. It is a losing proposition for Russian as well as Ukraine.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Biden is very strongly anti-war

as a senator in 2001, Biden did vote for the initial U.S. invasion of Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks. When the Authorization for Use of Military Force came up in the Senate three days after the attacks, it passed, 98-0, with Biden voting in favor.
...
Biden’s stance on the war in Iraq was similar. He voted for a resolution that authorized the use of force in Iraq, saying he supported the president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchec...den-wrong-he-was-against-afghanistan-war-sta/

 

[DennisN]

This is my childhood nightmare and obsession unfolding Infront of my eyes right now I'm not sure about you guys.
[...]

I feel pretty much the same way. Personally, I'm sad, uncertain and actually quite angry, to be honest.
But I hope for the best.

Also, I'm thinking that taking some kind of action could help with the feelings, maybe make some donation or something, perhaps.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

Disagree. Those oligarchs are the hope for Ukraine. Any change in leadership in Russia will depend on their participation.
So at this point those assets should be taken in hostage, yes: but confiscating them is a really bad idea.

No, they are not- they have helped fuel this and have been complacent in everything. They will just replace Putin with someone like him, the same agenda, and similar aspirations. The structure of the government and entire social system would remain embedded, with any disruptions defaulting back to the status quo over time. The corruption in Russia derives from these people- this is how Putin can even operate in the first place. Just like every country, there is a fraction of the ignorant that hold back progress for everyone else- they will have to fight these people as well. Those ignorant leftover would rally with the elites.

The people of Russia need the freedom to choose their leader and freezing the influence of these people will give them an opportunity that they would not have otherwise. The elites of Russia will not act in the interest of the people. They might even actually be able to form a better government and society than anywhere in the world if they approach it with a great strategy. I would love the opportunity for my government to start over on the condition that anyone in office cannot have excessive assets, income, or self-interested connections in their *lifetime* prior to holding the position. With technology, one no longer needs millions of dollars to run a campaign. A true democracy could form here.

The response from the West and thousands of companies/institutions that we are seeing is not so much to punish the Russian people, but to give them safety in numbers. A chance to unite. Once they can start doing this, the West will not only remove these restrictions, but very likely help them in their fight to free Russia.

Essentially, if Ukraine wins over Russia and this change actually happens- then they saved Russia and most of the world. Never attack the mama bear.

 

[DennisN]

I read a very interesting article on the BBC site, about 8 central persons around Putin:

Ukraine conflict: Who's in Putin's inner circle and running the war?​

(by Paul Kirby, BBC News)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I feel pretty much the same way. Personally, I'm sad, uncertain and actually quite angry, to be honest.
But I hope for the best.

Also, I'm thinking that taking some kind of action could help with the feelings, maybe make some donation or something, perhaps.

It would be great to have a social networking app that allows people/families that take in refugees to be sponsored by individuals across the world- with maybe ten sponsors each. It could be private and I guarantee that people would be more willing to donate when they can video chat with the people that are helping. I would suggest an individual-to-refugee network to rally sponsors, but that may be too undignifying at the moment.

The only other thing besides donate that I can do to relieve the helpless feeling is through bombarding social networks throughout the day. I have created numerous ones just for it. Haven’t slept much in six days now. Was taken aside at work and told to calm down because I won’t shut up. The company I work for is European and it’s likely that they will be sending teams out to help in the future- I will jump on that.

 

[Mike S.]

I think some light reading for historical context is useful: Fourth Crusade, Wild Fields, Cossacks, Ukrainian Orthodoxy, Catholicism in Russia (especially 2002). (The first one, from 1204, may seem a little early, but it was the origin of the East-West schism, plus seemingly everything from the proto-Renaissance to the Reconquista)

 

[Jarvis323]

I don't know if this is really true.

An alleged assassination plot against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was thwarted over the weekend, The Washington Post reports per a Ukrainian security leader, who also noted the Chechen special forces behind the plot had been "eliminated."

Ukraine's Oleksiy Danilov confirmed Tuesday that officials were "recently tipped off that a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen special forces, was on its way to kill Zelensky," the Post writes. Interestingly, members of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) were reportedly the ones to alert Ukraine of the possible attack.

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian...-a-zelensky-assassination-plot-after-a-tipoff

 

[StevieTNZ]

I don't know if this is really true.

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian...-a-zelensky-assassination-plot-after-a-tipoff

I read a similar story on www.stuff.co.nz this morning regarding this.

 

[atyy]

Nah it's worse yet, from what I'm reading in Russian dissident twitter accounts the military drills that happened at Ukraine border just before the invasion a week ago, were full of obligatory recruits, all of them young, they were given live ammo, and their phones were confiscated. Then when the drills ended they were simply sent into Ukraine and most were given very little info on why.

Russians knew that Russian lads won't be excited about killing their own kind so they simply lied to them and pushed them, you won't most likely see this on CNN but given the situation and details I have a high confidence this is true. The countless amateur videos from Ukrainian fighters also confirm this

 

[atyy]

I feel pretty much the same way. Personally, I'm sad, uncertain and actually quite angry, to be honest.
But I hope for the best.

Also, I'm thinking that taking some kind of action could help with the feelings, maybe make some donation or something, perhaps.

In Singapore, the Ukrainian embassy suggested a donation to the Red Cross.

 

[physicsworks]

I wasn't following this discussion closely and probably won't do it in the future because it's too difficult for me to handle at the personal level. I don't have energy to add much to the discussion, but I can't be silent. For the last six days I have been trying to help my immediate family members in Ukraine to reach parts of the country where it's relatively safe. Still, air raid sirens sometimes don't let them sleep at night and force them to go to a bomb shelter. Most of my family and many of my friends are still in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, in various towns and villages across Ukraine. Men and many courageous women are fighting angainst the enemy with everything they've got, children and grandparents hide in cellars, bomb shelters, underground parking structures with little to no food and water. I cannot begin to describe to you how hard this has been on everyone. One thing I'm certain of is that Ukrainians will fight and defend their land until their last breath. This is perhaps the most important miscalculation the russians made when they invaded my country.

There have been many symbolic and tragic parallels drawn during this war, from russians fighting with "neonazis" led by the only Jewish President (and Prime Minister) outside of Isreal to them bombing one of the largest massacre sites during the Holocaust---Babyn Yar in Kyiv, killing a family in the process; from them saying Ukraine should not exist and was created by Lenin to the realization that Kyiv is "the mother of Rus' cities" that was established centuries and centuries before Moscow was even on the map as a small village in Chernihiv knyazivstvo (Prnicipiality of Chernihiv in Rus'), and so on. They simply don't know our country, don't know our people, don't know our history. They have made many attempts to erase our identity, destroy and ban our language and national symbols, to starve us and shoot our intelligentsia. But this will be the last time they try, and they will ultimately pay the price.

I want to end on a positive note. Here's a beautiful arrangement of the Ukrainian Shchedryk, otherwise known as Carol of the Bells, performed recently in Worcester Cathedral to show solidarity with all Ukrainians. The music to this folklore song was written by Mykola Leontovych, who was murdered by a soviet agent.
to every russian warship, tank, plane, and soldier on my land---go you-know-where!
Thank you everyone who is supporting Ukraine!

 

[artis]

I think some light reading for historical context is useful: Fourth Crusade, Wild Fields, Cossacks, Ukrainian Orthodoxy, Catholicism in Russia (especially 2002). (The first one, from 1204, may seem a little early, but it was the origin of the East-West schism, plus seemingly everything from the proto-Renaissance to the Reconquista)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Fields

After a series of Russo-Turkish wars waged by Catherine the Great, the area formerly controlled by the Ottomans and the Crimean Tatars was incorporated into the Russian Empire in the 1780s. The Russian Empire built many of the cities in the Wild Fields, including Odessa, Sevastopol, Yekaterinoslav, and Nikolayev. Most of Kyiv was also built during this time.

It seems to me this is the time that Putin wants to turn history back to.

They simply don't know our country, don't know our people, don't know our history.

I'm afraid Putin and his strategists do know your history they just don't want to recognize Ukraine and it's people as sovereign but instead turn back the "clock" to the days when Ukraine as well as many other countries were part of the Czarist empire.
Otherwise I fully agree with you, Ukraine is tough, and Zelensky I admittedly did not think much of him at first but I am surprised at his resolve and mental strength , any country would wish a president like him.

 

[artis]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/02/...ne-invasion-olympics-western-intel/index.html

It seems China said to Russia "we're ok with the murdering just do it later to not rob us from our TV time for olympic showoff " , for some reason it doesn't surprise me.

Meanwhile in Russia, police arresting protesters , so far business as usual...
As one can see ,it's fine with them to throw a woman on ground while trying to break her arm

 

[DennisN]

I just saw two interviews which I want to share here.

In the first one the former Russian diplomat says among other things that the sanctions are biting and will bite, and also that he thinks the nuclear rattling is a bluff;

Former top Russian diplomat: ‘People will realize their sons are dying’ (ABC News)


The other is also interesting, since it is about the current sanctions and financial actions, and also about Putin's real concerns (according to the person being interviewed):

Browder on Putin: When You Believe Your Time Is Almost Up, You Start a War | Amanpour and Company

 

[Mike S.]

It seems to me this is the time that Putin wants to turn history back to.

Sort of, but not really? Putin talks about Kievan Rus' so I think the Mongol invasion is more relevant. Note the continuing central role of the Fourth Crusade's successful (!) delivery of Constantinople to Muslim rule, which allowed the furthest excursions of the Golden Horde and contributed to the collapse of Kievan Rus' economy while serving as a major destination for the Crimean-Nogai slave raids. I'm by no means an expert on this history, just read a few bits and pieces over the past week, but none of the news outlets give us even this much context. I wonder if Putin sees himself like Ivan III making the Great Stand on the Ugra River or something? Did Ukraine develop the way it did because freedom-loving people were willing to move and congregate even into the sights of the slave traders rather than put up with Russia's inequalities?

 

[fresh_42]

Did Ukraine develop the way it did because freedom-loving people ...

Yes.

... were willing to move and congregate even into the sights of the slave traders ...

Last call: If you will not stop this utter nonsense, you will be banned from replying in this thread.

... rather than put up with Russia's inequalities?

They have had, in contrast to Russia, a regular democratic election. And even Yanukovych's disempowerment was only because he canceled a treaty with the EU driven by Russia's pressure! Do not sell this as a revolution. It was the consequence of his decision obey to whatever Putin wants him to do.

 

[Jarvis323]

Sort of, but not really? Putin talks about Kievan Rus' so I think the Mongol invasion is more relevant. Note the continuing central role of the Fourth Crusade's successful (!) delivery of Constantinople to Muslim rule, which allowed the furthest excursions of the Golden Horde and contributed to the collapse of Kievan Rus' economy while serving as a major destination for the Crimean-Nogai slave raids. I'm by no means an expert on this history, just read a few bits and pieces over the past week, but none of the news outlets give us even this much context. I wonder if Putin sees himself like Ivan III making the Great Stand on the Ugra River or something?

Do you really think this kind of ancient history is influential to a narcissistic mobster that has perhaps made himself the richest person in the world at the expense of his own country? If you really want to understand Putin and his motivations, follow the money and the corruption.

 

[fresh_42]

Do you really think this kind of ancient history is influential to a narcissistic mobster that has perhaps made himself the richest man in the world at the expense of his own country? If you really want to understand Putin and his motivations, follow the money and the corruption.

I think it is not only about money. He has already enough of it. It is his Cold War mind setup that let him dream to become the greatest Czar in Russian history by reinstalling the borders of the Soviet Union. F60.0.

 

[Jarvis323]

I think it is not only about money. He has already enough of it. It is his Cold War mind setup that let him dream to become the greatest Czar in Russian history by reinstalling the borders of the Soviet Union. F60.0.

Maybe. But I also don't feel confident that Putin is the lone decision maker that he is made out to be. He has deep and corrupt ties to many very wealthy and powerful people. I think it's more likely that his system of corruption is the usual operating system, together with more practical state interests like gas and oil. It's worth going back and examining other conflicts: Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, etc. in this context. Maybe all of those wars were just about dreams of rebuilding the Soviet Union, or challenging the US for dominance, but you can't ignore the parallel issues concerning natural gas and oil.

https://jamestown.org/program/oil-in-chechnya-a-brief-history/
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5595811&page=1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Ukraine_gas_disputes
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-war-assad-russia-seek-future-gains-us-gas-deal

I'm not saying this is THE factor that explains all of this. But it might be relevant.

 

[Baluncore]

I wonder what could make Putin do something so irrational. Putin must know his life is reaching it's end game. This was the last opportunity to realize his dream of becoming “Vladimir the Great”. His ego had to take this chance at any cost. Instead European politicians are referring to Putin as a war criminal. To me, when it comes to the futility of restoring the USSR, Putin conjures up the image of a gut-shot soldier, trying to push his own intestines back in through the exit wound.

I think Putin expected to roll into the Ukraine unopposed, like the recent Taliban return to Afghanistan. Now it seems the Russians are having to fight their way into the Ukraine, and it is becoming more like the Russian entrapment in Afghanistan, with the prospect of a long siege. It all started to go wrong when the contract assassination of Zelensky failed. Now the Russian army has had to engineer a traffic jam, while their commanders find a political exit.
They are not in a good place. Neither is Putin.

 

[fresh_42]

The gas and oil industry is one example. It's worth going back and examining other conflicts: Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, etc. in this context.

It is not that easy. Chechnya was and is Russian territory, and I hope I don't have to remind you on Beslan! However, Beslan was the most brutal terror act committed by Chechens and by far not the only one. Georgia was e.g. about South Ossetia. North Ossetia is Russian and its people want to stay Russian. The south is Georgian territory, which makes little sense since they are the same people. All of a sudden there is a border between close relatives and friends. I'm not saying that there couldn't have been found a better solution, only that things are quite complicated if you take a closer look at it.

 

[phinds]

They are not in a good place. Neither is Putin.

True, but a trapped animal is at its most dangerous.

 

[fresh_42]

I wonder what could make Putin do something so irrational.

His article in the history books. And a miscalculation. He thought he could have done the same as he did in Kasachstan this winter: veni, vidi, vici.

 

[gleem]

True, but a trapped animal is at its most dangerous.

True and worse is the possibility that if he can't get what he wants then he will assure that no one can.

Scipio Africanus 236 - 183 BCE was one of Rome's greatest generals. One of his strategies was to surround his enemies on three sides but left one open which is referred to as the "golden bridge"

https://thehill.com/opinion/interna...t-offer-putin-a-golden-bridge-out-of-conflict

In this respect, perhaps the best advice is that provided by Scipio Africanus, widely considered to be among the greatest generals ever produced by ancient Rome. Scipio argued that the best way to defeat an enemy army was to envelop it on three sides but purposefully leave the fourth side open. In thus creating what he called a “golden bridge,” Scipio believed that he could defeat the enemy army without forcing it into a bloody fight to the death.

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

 

[fresh_42]

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

I do not see any. He lied (Nazis, genocide, special military operation) so much that there is little room for factual truth.

And Lawrow seems to plan for a second career as a stand-up comedian (the US dictates the decisions of the Ukrainian government).

 

[Astronuc]

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

I imagine 3 choices for those in Ukraine:

1. Submit to Putin and live under a society like that of East Germany during the cold war under Erich Honecker. I've been hearing that the Russian border control is refusing to allow Russians to leave Russia.
2. Leave Ukraine
3. Resist Putin and most likely be imprisoned or executed.

Or Ukraine has to repulse the Putin's invasion.