Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

A lot of people who spoke Russian as first language

I have heard an interview today of a woman who is Ukrainian, grew up Russian speaking, but always considered herself Ukrainian, as it was the language her grandfather sang songs in. It didn't need Putin to create a Ukrainian identity. If at all, then the Russians should consider themselves Ukrainians (historically), not the other way round.

 

[hutchphd]

What seems self-evident to me is simply part of the "empire of lies" to others.

Yes but that is always true. As long as those involved in the conversation understand that the so-called "simple truths" are sometimes true but never simple we can continue IMHO. I have tried to inject my facts when they have become stretched beyond my recognition.

 

[fresh_42]

Any discussions on the meta-level should be started in the feedback forum.

A war in Europe with the potential to become a nuclear war is difficult to ignore. We have many European members who provide insights, and many American members who are interested in views different from what they are consuming on their news channels. In addition, there is a refugee crisis going on that becomes bigger by the hour.

Of course, it is politics in its wider sense, but it is not party politics which is usually the reason why we do not discuss politics on PF.

Perhaps it's time to close this thread as there is no core set of facts upon which we can all agree.

I think we all agree on quite a couple of facts and assessments.

 

[Baluncore]

I think we all agree on quite a couple of facts and assessments.

I have no problem with multiple realities. There is no need to eliminate false information early in the process, it will dispel itself later. I can handle contradictory facts in the sea of misinformation. I even disagree with my own conclusions.

 

[pinball1970]

"simple truths"

The first casualty of war apparently.

My vote is keep it going even though I am very anxious/worried about where/what this could lead to with 1000s of deaths already.

I don't know much of the history/politics besides Putins alleged crimes
If I see something positive I will probably post it.
Not many so far

 

[Astronuc]

I think there are a lot of folks wondering how we got here. My observation is that it happened slowly/gradually over the last three or four decades, starting from lukewarm until it is now boiling.

 

[fresh_42]

Just read: France wants to confiscate the assets of Russian oligarchs. Great idea! Someone has to pay the damage! They became rich by stealing it from the Russian people, so it's only fair if it will be used to pay for the damage the Russians created.

 

[Rive]

Great idea!

Disagree. Those oligarchs are the hope for Ukraine. Any change in leadership in Russia will depend on their participation.
So at this point those assets should be taken in hostage, yes: but confiscating them is a really bad idea.

 

[Monsterboy]

I think there are a lot of folks wondering how we got here. My observation is that it happened slowly/gradually over the last three or four decades, starting from lukewarm until it is now boiling.

I think so too, Putin didn't just wake up one day and decide to invade Ukraine. His discontent over Ukraine's eagerness to join the EU and/or NATO, continued expansion of NATO eastwards... Ukraine was the last straw. He has been planning this for several years perhaps. I think people underestimated how far a 21st century dictator can go. It still feels unreal that this is actually happening.

 

[fresh_42]

Disagree. Those oligarchs are the hope for Ukraine. Any change in leadership in Russia will depend on their participation.
So at this point those assets should be taken in hostage, yes: but confiscating them is a really bad idea.

Ask the children who are currently dying because Russians bombed Ukraine's largest children's hospital that cannot perform surgeries right now.

 

[PeroK]

I think so too, Putin didn't just wake up one day and decide to invade Ukraine. His discontent over Ukraine's eagerness to join the EU and/or NATO, continued expansion of NATO eastwards... Ukraine was the last straw. He has been planning this for several years perhaps. I think people underestimated how far a 21st century dictator can go. It still feels unreal that this is actually happening.

The writing was on the wall when Putin returned from his four-year sabbatical to resume the presidency in 2012. The road to dictatorship was clear. And I'm not saying that in hindsight. From that point he's been the first great dictator of the 21st Century.

 

[fresh_42]

I think there are a lot of folks wondering how we got here. My observation is that it happened slowly/gradually over the last three or four decades, starting from lukewarm until it is now boiling.

I think so too, Putin didn't just wake up one day and decide to invade Ukraine. His discontent over Ukraine's eagerness to join the EU and/or NATO, continued expansion of NATO eastwards... Ukraine was the last straw. He has been planning this for several years perhaps. I think people underestimated how far a 21st century dictator can go. It still feels unreal that this is actually happening.

I think this is a bit too easy. Putin simply waited for the right moment to come (and failed) in my opinion. He couldn't give up Crimea. Ukraine in NATO and Crimea with it? What he has done in eastern Ukraine is the same he did and does with Belarus, Transnistria, Georgia, and Kasachstan: make sure it is a marionette installed, or else officially acknowledge parts of it as a sovereign country.

Besides some propaganda reasons for the masses, there has been only one unsolved big issue: the Russian black sea fleet. (Maybe his hubris, too, to become the one who reinstalled a version of the Soviet Union.)

 

[phinds]

The writing was on the wall when Putin returned from his four-year sabbatical to resume the presidency in 2012.

Really? You think Medvedev was really in charge for those four years and Putin was "just" the Prime Minister?

 

[Rive]

Ask the children who are currently dying because Russians bombed Ukraine's largest children's hospital that cannot perform surgeries right now.

Exactly because of them the first priority is not revenge, but to have a bunch of powerful people in the top echelons of Russia who thinks that they still have much to lose with every moment Putin is in power and the war is on.
Telling them that they have nothing more to lose and they are screwed either way is not a good idea, even if it's emotionally very compelling: for me too.

 

[fresh_42]

The oligarchs are the only real lever the West has. Btw., Monaco also froze their assets.

 

[artis]

The oligarchs are the only real lever the West has. Btw., Monaco also froze their assets.

The oligarchs and the people, make no mistake, a couple thousand people , well OMON can simply arrest them and beat them until their teeth break in, but if an absolute majority decides that Putin is done then it might become a different ballgame. Although truth be told, it probably won't come to that and it will he his inner circle that will pull the levers
This is exactly the reason why (for those that paid attention) Sergei Pugachov and people like him say that contrary to how it seems Putin doesn't run the show alone, he has a powerful but almost invisible elite behind him, among them, the billionaires, FSB and GRU etc agency head staff, military generals and other people. + the general masses, at the moment Putin is performing poorly among all of those "demographics"
The rich folks are starting to reconsider how much they wish to lose money, the masses are starting to see painful prices and shortages and the FSB and military realizes their losing too much tanks and weapons and that Ukraine won't give up easily.

All of this can only go so far, at some point something has to give.

 

[DennisN]

Some insight into Putin and the current situation from Fiona Hill.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

That certainly wasn't a pleasure to read, but thanks for posting. Quite sobering.

 

[Astronuc]

That certainly wasn't a pleasure to read, but thanks for posting. Quite sobering.

It is one of many perspectives, but Fiona Hill spent time in Russia and has been studying/assessing Russia and Putin for a couple of decades.

I'm interested in the opinion/assessment of former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-ambassador-caught-between-ukraine-and-trump

 

[artis]

Seems like the aftermath of an airstrike

 

[PeroK]

It is one of many perspectives, but Fiona Hill spent time in Russia and has been studying/assessing Russia and Putin for a couple of decades.

It's interesting that Hill emphasised several times the tactic of getting people in democracies to turn against their own governments. In this case by blaming NATO for Putin's actions.

 

[artis]

It's interesting that Hill emphasised several times the tactic of getting people in democracies to turn against their own governments. In this case by blaming NATO for Putin's actions.

I don't see where Hill would claim what you claim she said, all she said is that giving Ukraine the "affirmative" for route to NATO and Putin was not ok with that, and eventually this was the major cause for the current conflict, now you may not answer me like you have done before it doesn't change the fact that you misrepresent what Fiona Hill is saying.
And this has nothing to do with me or my personal wishes or viewpoint.

 

[snorkack]

I have heard an interview today of a woman who is Ukrainian, grew up Russian speaking, but always considered herself Ukrainian, as it was the language her grandfather sang songs in.

Ah! That makes sense! Did not remember it now.
Yes - perfectly plausible that a lot of Russian speaking people are recent descendants of Ukrainian speakers. The way Ukrainians were treated and perceived, as country bumpkins... the language group prejudice overlapped with social group prejudice. And that a lot of people felt it desirable and appropriate to switch to the prestige Russian language and raise their children in Russian language while identifying as Ukrainian - a regional background origin which they did not feel was betrayed by change of language.

 

[gleem]

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valdai_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin

On Oct 24, 2014, Putin delivered a speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club XI session in Sochi Russia.

Published excerpts of the speech from the Russian press.

• "The world is full of contradictions today. We need to be frank in asking each other if we have a reliable safety net in place. Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals. The international and regional political, economic, and cultural cooperation organisations are also going through difficult times."
• "The Cold War ended, but it did not end with the signing of a peace treaty with clear and transparent agreements on respecting existing rules or creating new rules and standards. This created the impression that the so-called ‘victors’ in the Cold War had decided to pressure events and reshape the world to suit their own needs and interests."
• "In a situation where you had domination by one country and its allies, or its satellites rather, the search for global solutions often turned into an attempt to impose their own universal recipes. This group’s ambitions grew so big that they started presenting the policies they put together in their corridors of power as the view of the entire international community. But this is not the case."
• "A unilateral diktat and imposing one’s own models produces the opposite result. Instead of settling conflicts it leads to their escalation, instead of sovereign and stable states we see the growing spread of chaos, and instead of democracy there is support for a very dubious public ranging from open neo-fascists to Islamic radicals."
• "Today, we are seeing new efforts to fragment the world, draw new dividing lines, put together coalitions not built for something but directed against someone, anyone, create the image of an enemy as was the case during the Cold War years, and obtain the right to this leadership, or diktat if you wish."
• "Sanctions are already undermining the foundations of world trade, the WTO rules and the principle of inviolability of private property. They are dealing a blow to liberal model of globalisation based on markets, freedom and competition, which is a model that has primarily benefited precisely the Western countries."
• "You cannot mix politics and the economy, but this is what is happening now. I have always thought and still think today that politically motivated sanctions were a mistake that will harm everyone."
• "Russia is a self-sufficient country. We will work within the foreign economic environment that has taken shape, develop domestic production and technology and act more decisively to carry out transformation. Pressure from outside, as has been the case on past occasions, will only consolidate our society."
• "We have no intention of shutting ourselves off from anyone and choosing some kind of closed development road. We are always open to dialogue, including on normalising our economic and political relations. We are counting here on the pragmatic approach and position of business communities in the leading countries."
• "Russia is supposedly turning its back on Europe – such words were probably spoken already here too during the discussions – and is looking for new business partners, above all in Asia. Let me say that this is absolutely not the case. Our active policy in the Asian-Pacific region began not just yesterday and not in response to sanctions, but is a policy that we have been following for a good many years now. Like many other countries, including Western countries, we saw that Asia is playing an ever greater role in the world, in the economy."
• "There is no doubt that humanitarian factors such as education, science, healthcare and culture are playing a greater role in global competition. This also has a big impact on international relations, including because this ‘soft power’ resource will depend to a great extent on real achievements in developing human capital rather than on sophisticated propaganda tricks."
• "We are sliding into the times when, instead of the balance of interests and mutual guarantees, it is fear and the balance of mutual destruction that prevent nations from engaging in direct conflict."
• "In absence of legal and political instruments, arms are once again becoming the focal point of the global agenda; they are used wherever and however, without any UN Security Council sanctions. And if the Security Council refuses to produce such decisions, then it is immediately declared to be an outdated and ineffective instrument."
• "It is obvious that success and real results are only possible if key participants in international affairs can agree on harmonising basic interests, on reasonable self-restraint, and set the example of positive and responsible leadership."
• "International relations must be based on international law, which itself should rest on moral principles such as justice, equality and truth. Perhaps most important is respect for one’s partners and their interests. This is an obvious formula, but simply following it could radically change the global situation."
• "The work of integrated associations, the cooperation of regional structures, should be built on a transparent, clear basis; the Eurasian Economic Union’s formation process is a good example of such transparency."
• "Russia made its choice. Our priorities are further improving our democratic and open economy institutions, accelerated internal development, taking into account all the positive modern trends in the world, and consolidating society based on traditional values and patriotism."
• "Russia does not need any kind of special, exclusive place in the world. While respecting the interests of others, we simply want for our own interests to be taken into account and for our position to be respected."
• "Building a more stable world order is a difficult task. We were able to develop rules for interaction after World War II, and we were able to reach an agreement in Helsinki in the 1970s. Our common duty is to resolve this fundamental challenge at this new stage of development."

 

[artis]

Maybe to set our minds off from hate (even among ourselves) and war, here is the US senator Ben Sasse trying to pronounce the now famous phrase that Ukrainian border guards gave to the Russian warship...
And here are (supposedly) a bunch of captured tank operators, although judging by their looks they seem more like a poor eastern European version of "The Peaky blinders"

 

[artis]

One thing that has not been mentioned here is that Ukraine has a lot of swampy and soft ground, this is one of the reasons slowing down Russian advance to Kyiv.
Meanwhile Ukrainian farmers in their "harvest"

 

[Bandersnatch]

I don't see where Hill would claim what you claim she said, all she said is that giving Ukraine the "affirmative" for route to NATO and Putin was not ok with that, and eventually this was the major cause for the current conflict, now you may not answer me like you have done before it doesn't change the fact that you misrepresent what Fiona Hill is saying.
And this has nothing to do with me or my personal wishes or viewpoint.

It's right there:

Hill: Correct. And he’s blaming others, for why this has happened, and getting us to blame ourselves.
If people look back to the history of World War II, there were an awful lot of people around Europe who became Nazi German sympathizers before the invasion of Poland. In the United Kingdom, there was a whole host of British politicians who admired Hitler’s strength and his power, for doing what Great Powers do, before the horrors of the Blitz and the Holocaust finally penetrated.
Reynolds: And you see this now.
Hill: You totally see it. Unfortunately, we have politicians and public figures in the United States and around Europe who have embraced the idea that Russia was wronged by NATO and that Putin is a strong, powerful man and has the right to do what he’s doing: Because Ukraine is somehow not worthy of independence, because it’s either Russia’s historical lands or Ukrainians are Russians, or the Ukrainian leaders are — this is what Putin says — “drug addled, fascist Nazis” or whatever labels he wants to apply here.

And again in this bit:

But this is also a full-spectrum information war, and what happens in a Russian “all-of-society” war, you soften up the enemy. You get the Tucker Carlsons and Donald Trumps doing your job for you. The fact that Putin managed to persuade Trump that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that Trump would be willing to give up Ukraine without any kind of fight, that’s a major success for Putin’s information war. I mean he has got swathes of the Republican Party — and not just them, some on the left, as well as on the right — masses of the U.S. public saying, “Good on you, Vladimir Putin,” or blaming NATO, or blaming the U.S. for this outcome. This is exactly what a Russian information war and psychological operation is geared towards. He’s been carefully seeding this terrain as well. We’ve been at war, for a very long time. I’ve been saying this for years.

FYI I also have a problem with your style of posting.

I don't expect this thread in general to maintain the standards of clarity and expertise of the technical subforums - the grave subject is politics in its worst incarnation, after all, and this isn't a forum for diplomats and career politicians.
But people are upset and trepidatious, in need of a place to wrap their heads around these events. Which is best done by talking it over, even if not everything said is valid or correct.
So I don't have a problem with any of that, whomever it's coming from (unless it would be blatant, persistent misinformation or bigotry, which I don't think this thread has suffered all that much from). On the contrary, I think providing personal perspective and sharing basic information is a useful contribution to the discussion.

What ruffles my feathers is repeatedly painting yourself as an expert, where it's clear your credentials consist of 'living in central Europe', as if you were the only one on this forum with such a pedigree, or if it counted for all that much in this information age. And the grandiose claims to logical objectivity and deep insight while you recast basic regional history through your armchair perspective, smuggling in personal biases as you go. Then there are the passive-aggressive remarks at people who call you out on that.
It all comes off as condescending and petty. All of that is unnecessary. The rest is valuable.

 

[DennisN]

UN votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calls for withdrawal (The Guardian)
In an emergency session, 141 of the 193 member states voted for the resolution, 35 abstained and five voted against

Article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/united-nations-russia-ukraine-vote

From BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60582327):

Who voted against condemning the invasion?

Five countries voted against condemning Russia's invasion at the emergency UN General Assembly in New York. Unsurprisingly, one was the Russian Federation itself. But who were the others?

Equally unsurprisingly, Belarus also opposed the motion. A long-time Russian ally, the small country is described by analysts as Moscow's "client state". Some Russian troops invaded Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Another to oppose was Syria - whose leader Bashar al-Assad relied on large-scale Russian military assistance to stay in power during Syria's civil war.

Eritrea in the Horn of Africa also opposed, as did North Korea in Asia.

However China - which earlier this year joined Russia in opposing further Nato expansion - abstained. Last week it abstained during a similar vote in the UN Security Council.

(--- I wrote a personal opinion here, but I changed my mind and deleted it ---)

 

[PeroK]

@artis I'll come clean and say that I have put you on my ignore list, so I don't see what you post. Thanks to Bandersnatch for replying on my behalf.

 

[artis]

It's right there:

And again in this bit:FYI I also have a problem with your style of posting.

I don't expect this thread in general to maintain the standards of clarity and expertise of the technical subforums - the grave subject is politics in its worst incarnation, after all, and this isn't a forum for diplomats and career politicians.
But people are upset and trepidatious, in need of a place to wrap their heads around these events. Which is best done by talking it over, even if not everything said is valid or correct.
So I don't have a problem with any of that, whomever it's coming from (unless it would be blatant, persistent misinformation or bigotry, which I don't think this thread has suffered all that much from). On the contrary, I think providing personal perspective and sharing basic information is a useful contribution to the discussion.

What ruffles my feathers is repeatedly painting yourself as an expert, where it's clear your credentials consist of 'living in central Europe', as if you were the only one on this forum with such a pedigree, or if it counted for all that much in this information age. And the grandiose claims to logical objectivity and deep insight while you recast basic regional history through your armchair perspective, smuggling in personal biases as you go. Then there are the passive-aggressive remarks at people who call you out on that.
It all comes off as condescending and petty. All of that is unnecessary. The rest is valuable.

It's interesting that Hill emphasised several times the tactic of getting people in democracies to turn against their own governments. In this case by blaming NATO for Putin's actions.

It seems I have made a mistake, I read that reply by @PeroK and thought he said that Fiona Hill thinks like that herself, but now re-reading I see she simply recounted what she has seen both home and abroad.
In this case I apologize to @PeroK for wrongly calling him out which in the end was simply my misreading, admittedly I probably misread because I already had a bias towards Perok having a certain viewpoint. Just goes to show that bias can go a long way.As for the rest of your objection , I agree I got bit emotional and heated, but my general notion sadly is correct, people from US and even western Europe often have a very "simple" and "one way" take on history especially the history of eastern Europe. That often gets me angry and then I start to sound like an "expert".

But you are more than welcome to take what I wrote and prove me wrong? Because contrary to what you accuse me of, you would find it hard to take what I wrote and claim it is wrong, apart from my personal opinion which is just an opinion and we all have our own.Although I really can't understand what was so "hard to read" about what I said because everything I wrote is based in facts, probably the harder part was me saying that "buffer zones" are realistic political strategy and again that is not my invention but merely something that has been know for a long time, was that the "acting an expert" part that got you?And by the way, I see you have not paid great detail to what I wrote or the place in which I live , because

credentials consist of 'living in central Europe'

I am not located in central Europe. Since this war started I wish I was... The Baltic states are in eastern Europe, all having a large Russian border.

or if it counted for all that much in this information age

Well believe it or not it does. It's one thing you can read online, it's another to grow up in a certain place.
There is a reason i haven't started a thread giving "expert" opinions about how it is to be in Aleppo while the Russian air attack team is bombing it to the ground, I am also not giving expert opinions about living in the USA or other topics I can only access via online information.
So forgive me if this "rattles" your feathers but I do believe I know much more about eastern European socioeconomic situation than you, unless you live here or are from here which I think you are not, because

living in central Europe

 

[Bandersnatch]

I'm Polish, thank you very much. We're both in central Europe as far as I'm concerned.

 

[artis]

I'm Polish, thank you very much. We're both in central Europe as far as I'm concerned.

Truth be told that certainly came as a surprise, but anyway can I ask for us not to get emotional? If you have a problem about anything I have said thinking it was wrong please call me out and point it out, I am perfectly fine with that , although in this case it seems to me it wasn't the correctness of what I said but "how I said it" that angered you and some others.

Anyway I hope that the time I took to write down and provide the links was worthwhile at least to some and all of us get to know more as we share information.

@Bandersnatch well given your from Poland, what is the situation there , the border with Ukraine and NATO? Here NATO convoys and additional support already moved towards the border. NATO is also conducting a sizeable "drill" here now together with our local army.

 

[Bandersnatch]

@Bandersnatch well given your from Poland, what is the situation there , the border with Ukraine and NATO? Here NATO convoys and additional support already moved towards the border. NATO is also conducting a sizeable "drill" here now together with our local army.

I don't have much insight to give about the local situation. From my neck of the woods the most noticeable thing so far is the influx of immigrants - road traffic is heavy with Ukrainian cars heading westwards and there's always some acquaintance or another getting new tenants.
If there are any ongoing or planned NATO drills, they're not in the news.

 

[fresh_42]

If there are any ongoing or planned NATO drills, they're not in the news.

There are no drills. They are busy concentrating troops and material at the borders and in the Baltic countries in general, e.g. I've seen Apaches. Such movements are not a drill.

 

[StevieTNZ]

My nurse was talking to me about the smallpox virus, and how that the virus exists in a lab each in Russia and the USA. Not trying to give Russia any ideas, but they could easily use it as a biological weapon. My nurse, who use to work for the Ministry of Health, said NZ should keep a stockpile of vaccines in case something were to happen.

 

[pinball1970]

My nurse was talking to me about the smallpox virus, and how that the virus exists in a lab each in Russia and the USA. Not trying to give Russia any ideas, but they could easily use it as a biological weapon. My nurse, who use to work for the Ministry of Health, said NZ should keep a stockpile of vaccines in case something were to happen.

Smallpox?
I would feel a lot safer in NZ than here right now.
This is my childhood nightmare and obsession unfolding Infront of my eyes right now I'm not sure about you guys.
I cannot take the history and politics in, what does it matter?
Everything I know and love could be obliterated.
That's my fear.
I had to say that.
I am reading every thing else.