Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

“Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombsat Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them.”
from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...s-debate-in-germany-touches-a-raw-nato-nerve/

I guess the silos still exist, empty or not.

And thanks to Trump the INF no longer exists.

 

[Frabjous]

And thanks to Trump the INF no longer exists.

While not claiming that the withdrawal was a good thing, I do not think that it was calamitous. The military utility of nuclear weapons is actually fairly limited and given their costs, the days of 10’s of thousands of warheads are not coming back.

 

[fresh_42]

While not claiming that the withdrawal was a good thing

It simply means that Europe is a potential battlefield of nuclear war again, not less!

 

[Frabjous]

It simply means that Europe is a potential battlefield of nuclear war again, not less!

Strategic use in Europe never disappeared, and it is not clear that tactical is ever coming back.

 

[Astronuc]

I've seen headlines and pictures of a long (40 mile/64 km) Russian military convoy headed to Kyiv.

Edit/update on the convoy. It appears to have stalled.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083...talled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

I hope they stop, turn around and go home. Enough already.

I also read a headline and summary that claimed Russian soldiers are knocking holes in the fuel tanks of their vehicles rather than continue into the conflict. I don't know the veracity of that claim, but if so, it would be an interesting turn. I don't know from where Business Insider collects their information.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-have-punched-holes-their-own-gas-tanks-2022-3

I just wish Russia would stop this insanity and go home. Too much violence already.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The State of the Union is occurring. Biden opens it with remarks about the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine.

 

[Klystron]

Sorry if this has been answered before, but I do have a question:

What threat does Ukraine pose to Russia, if Ukraine join NATO?

Among other issues, NATO defensive weaponry installed in Ukraine inhibits Russia to her west.

“Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombsat Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them.”
from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...s-debate-in-germany-touches-a-raw-nato-nerve/

Aging or not, do not discount attack by Tornados. While modern technology of the battle space reduces the role of aircraft for information gathering, these fighter bombers stand off and deliver ordnance in manner as difficult to counter as sea/air/ground launched cruise missiles, with increased discretion and adaptability of a crew.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Aging or not, do not discount attack by Tornados. While modern technology of the battle space reduces the role of aircraft for information gathering, these fighter bombers stand off and deliver ordnance in manner as difficult to counter as sea/air/ground launched cruise missiles, with increased discretion and adaptability of a crew.

They also uh, drop nuclear weapons, which seems like a thing no one would ever discount.

 

[Astronuc]

Some insight into Putin and the current situation from Fiona Hill.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

“Every time you think, ’No, he [Putin] wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”

Rather sobering perspective.

Hill: It doesn’t mean that he’s going to annex all of them and make them part of the Russian Federation like they’ve done with Crimea. You can establish dominance by marginalizing regional countries, by making sure that their leaders are completely dependent on Moscow, either by Moscow practically appointing them through rigged elections or ensuring they are tethered to Russian economic and political and security networks. You can see this now across the former Soviet space.

We’ve seen pressure being put on Kazakhstan to reorient itself back toward Russia, instead of balancing between Russia and China, and the West. And just a couple of days before the invasion of Ukraine in a little-noticed act, https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance. This is significant because Azerbaijan’s leader has been resisting this for decades. And we can also see that Russia has made itself the final arbiter of the future relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia has also been marginalized after being a thorn in Russia’s side for decades. And Belarus is now completely subjugated by Moscow.

But amid all this, Ukraine was the country that got away. And what Putin is saying now is that Ukraine doesn’t belong to Ukrainians. It belongs to him and the past. He is going to wipe Ukraine off the map, literally, because it doesn’t belong on his map of the “Russian world.” He’s basically told us that. He might leave behind some rump statelets. When we look at old maps of Europe — probably the maps he’s been looking at — you find all kinds of strange entities, like the Sanjak of Novi Pazar in the Balkans. I used to think, what the hell is that? These are all little places that have dependency on a bigger power and were created to prevent the formation of larger viable states in contested regions. Basically, if Vladimir Putin has his way, Ukraine is not going to exist as the modern-day Ukraine of the last 30 years.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

Cold War 2 is better than WW3. So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine. This is time for diplomacy

This won’t work. Putin’s vision remains fixed. The totality of it remains unknown. But there are clues. What will he do with Ukraine? My thoughts and theory:

It appears as if the plan is for Belarus to take up the land in the West of Ukraine- a thin tract snaking beside Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Thereby creating another border between NATO nations and Russia. Putin feels insecure and there is no way he would leave this area to Ukraine if he takes it. This could also explain the actions and conviction that we are seeing from Lukashenko- where he will be his defense against NATO. Land and energy, as well as security is something he would want- he’s already rich enough.

With Russia then claiming the Southern portions of Ukraine as to box it in. The last phase would be taking Moldova much later- because if they got away with taking Ukraine then this would be a piece of cake. This would establish security in the Black Sea and allow him to exercise more dominance in the area later on. This plan fufills all the needs that he has. The President of Ukraine will be appointed by him. This is the triunion.

Allowing Ukraine to split and remain independent is incompatible with his vision. Placing a nuclear-ready arsenal in Western Ukraine (given to Belarus) and sprawling out of Belarus in the West extends his reach to Western Europe considerably. Finally, at least seven NATO nations that he feels in control of- with nukes pointed right at all of them. How perverse is that? Think about it. He doesn’t have that now, but he would have that then with this arrangement. This is why he wants Ukraine. Taking Ukraine without doing this is pointless.

His vision likely does not include nuclear war until after this plan is complete. He is not ready- that he needs Ukraine tells us this. He is a perfectionist. He probably is uncomfortable with thoughts of nuking any other country until he has achieved this vision. This vision of how it would go down. How it would be organized and how he would be assured that he could win if he had to. And I don’t think he has releasing a nuke in his vision EVER- all this effort is just precaution. If he cannot take Ukraine, then this vision cannot be completed and he may become more impulsive and unstable. He will not drop this vision unless he can find another one that meets his needs of feeling secure- this probably won’t happen because he is closed off to the information he would need to establish one that works. Anyway, my theory.

 

[Baluncore]

An AN-225 transport aircraft was destroyed by Russian missiles. Why wasn't that aircraft removed to a safe nation a week before?

The last tracking of the AN225 shows a flight 3 months ago, on 17/11/2021, from Leipzig to Hostomel. That all suggests that the 35 year old Mriya airframe had been undergoing age-related heavy maintenance, and so could not be flown out. Wikipedia claims it was destroyed during the Battle of Antonov Airport.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

RIP Mriya.

There were two large hangars at Hostomel the headquarters of the Antonov Design Bureau. One I believe contained a (spare) partially completed AN225. The other was used for maintenance service of the Mriya AN225, and the fleet of several AN124 aircraft.
The functional AN225 Mriya, reg ADB383F, would normally be parked on it's especially strong octagonal pad. (50.589026°, 30.205715°). That pad shows no sign of damage or wreckage, while there is smoke coming from both hangars.

The AN124 fleet was moved.
A few hours ago there were three active Antanov AN124s showing on tracking.
https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/A124
One landed at Constanta, Romania, a minor NATO airbase. It's flight number is no longer ADB xxx but has now become “North Atlantic Treaty Organization 1002”. That is good to see.

 

[artis]

Well, it's not exactly true that Putin has taken all former USSR territories or ethnic groups by brute force or threats. Let's not forget the bloody fighting in Chechnya in the 90's, but given the Chechens are fierce much like the Afghans, the Russian army had a rather hard time to conquer them, eventually they started out as now in Ukraine with trucks just driving in , then they realized that won't work and just bombed the hell out of Grozny, but then they realized that this won't work either in the long term "quenching" of the separatist spirit that wanted to break free in the Chechen men, so they did what US and others have done and it works - money.
Ramzan Kadyrov is not just the son of former Chechen fighter Akhmad Kadyrov, he is essentially a wealthy guy who in exchange for financial support agrees to keep Chechens at bay and do Moscow's bidding.
Read this, a long but good short summary of how this "love/hate" relationship goes on between Moscow and Grozny. To understand Chechens and their relationship to Moscow is an essential part of understanding modern day Moscow policy and Putin himself.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/23/putins-closest-ally-and-his-biggest-liability

Needless to say in exchange for money Ramzan seems to have done a lot of Putin's personal bidding, like helping arrange assassinations for some of his opponents, both in Russia as well as abroad.

Apparently Moscow has paid quite significantly , since Grozny has been completely rebuilt and Ramzan essentially lives like if he were the owner of a large oil company, he drives expensive german cars, has big villas to live in, meets international stars etc,

Back in the day he had a instagram account that I loved to visit from time to time, but it seems it has been blocked/deleted now for some time, it had everything from him playing with a tiger to him shooting Russian machine guns while posing with money and Islamic radicals, you know that artistic touch that only a Moscow paid oligarch/former terrorist can have.

Some more good reading here on Financial Times, the article has some worrisome predictions about the future.

https://www.ft.com/content/c8dadc00-a086-11e8-85da-eeb7a9ce36e4

ps. @ergospherical please enjoy my "slightly above average" googling

 

[PeroK]

Cold War 2 is better than WW3. So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine. This is time for diplomacy.

The attempts at diplomacy continued the whole time Putin was building up hi invasion force. If all he wanted was East Ukraine he could possibly have done that. He's attacked the whole country.

 

[artis]

The attempts at diplomacy continued the whole time Putin was building up hi invasion force. If all he wanted was East Ukraine he could possibly have done that. He's attacked the whole country.

East Ukraine was effectively already his, well maybe few more "little green men" and then for sure.
But Putin wants to "go big or go home" , well I mean he wants the first part of that slogan, the second part is what the Ukrainians wish...Not sure how many here remember the Islamist terrorist attack on the caricature journal "Charlie Hebdo" when they dared to make fun of "Muhammad" , but now they are making fun of Putin, enjoy...

 

[artis]

Aaaaannnnd just when you thought Europe is strong and decisive in it's resolve against Russia, they bend...
EU, Poland won't send the fighter jets to Ukraine.
Apparently letting Ukrainians take off with Russian jets from NATO airspace is bit too much and they are probably afraid of the reaction from Putin for this, that is my opinion, probably "big brother" advised strongly against

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/amp/But from Russian/Ukrainian news they are fighting with good outcome still and Ukrainians even manage to get some Russian tanks and armor from time to time.
Biden made a good speech, either way it seems this won't end the way it was planned so there is hope for Ukrainians.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/02/...-vladimir-putin-state-of-the-union/index.html

 

[Rive]

This whole fighter jet thing had a weird feeling from the start. Only some remnant soviet types could be considered, but those who still has them in flying condition needs them, while the others who had them got rid of them long ago.
I think the most what could be procured right now is some forgotten supplies or grounded birds for parts.
On longer term (few weeks or so) there may be solutions with rearranging 'western' birds and bases but that's for later.

 

[artis]

Only some remnant soviet types could be considered

Well sure, they had to supply planes that Ukraine is known to posses, NATO cannot just supply F35's and then say to Moscow, "ups, now how did that just happen?" ...

And I guess you also need planes that Ukrainian pilots have actually trained on.

 

[Rive]

And I guess you also need planes that Ukrainian pilots have actually trained on.

Pilots, ground crew, supplies. Preparing for a new type is ~ half year, and that's already rushed.

 

[artis]

Pilots, ground crew, supplies. Preparing for a new type is ~ half year, and that's already rushed.

But most importantly their airfields are either in very bad condition or blown up now so they would have to take off and land from another neighboring country anyway, realistically that means a NATO territory and I guess this is why NATO decided not to engage as for now.

In other news, Russian forces seem to be near Europe's largest nuclear power plant, the staff are saying they will guard the place on twitter


Ny times says many reactors have already shut down
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant

@Astronuc can comment , how safe is it to keep a reactor operating while it's staff might be in need to escape? I guess it would be smarter to shut them off before the situation is destabilized.

 

[artis]

Just read on twitter
Instead of peace keeping troops Russians have "piece" keeping ones...
They are liberators in the sense that they liberate you from the "pieces" you have

 

[Rive]

Now, tax exemption

Ukraine's National Agency for the Protection against Corruption (NAPC) has declared that captured Russian tanks and other equipment are not subject to declaration.

One more, as new it would worth around 25 million - even as 'used, as-is' still quite a haul

 

[fresh_42]

A few hours ago there were three active Antanov AN124s showing on tracking.

News here said that 3 are parked in Leipzig.

 

[fresh_42]

Well, it's not exactly true that Putin has taken all former USSR territories or ethnic groups by brute force or threats. Let's not forget the bloody fighting in Chechnya in the 90's ...

Don't confuse Chechnya with Ukraine. Chechnya is and was part of Russia after the Soviet Union decayed. And it was a part of Russia that terrorized its neighbors by constantly performing terror attacks. These two are totally different issues. I have been in Ossetia and wondered about a little crater near a bazaar. Guess why there was a crater! And it wasn't the only trace of a Chechenyian bomb!

 

[rsk]

The attempts at diplomacy continued the whole time Putin was building up hi invasion force.

Really? I was pretty certain that wasn't the case. I was under the impression that Ukraine, the 'West', Nato, all refused to negotiate.

 

[fresh_42]

Really? I was pretty certain that wasn't the case. I was under the impression that Ukraine, the 'West', Nato, all refused to negotiate.

If you consider Putin's offer, which is equivalent to a capitulation without any conditions, a basis for negotiations, then you could have come to such a conclusion. But only then.

 

[PeroK]

Really? I was pretty certain that wasn't the case. I was under the impression that Ukraine, the 'West', Nato, all refused to negotiate.

Really? Everyone was urging Putin not to attack.

 

[artis]

Don't confuse Chechnya with Ukraine. Chechnya is and was part of Russia after the Soviet Union decayed. And it was a part of Russia that terrorized its neighbors by constantly performing terror attacks. These two are totally different issues. I have been in Ossetia and wondered about a little crater near a bazaar. Guess why there was a crater! And it wasn't the only trace of a Chechenyian bomb!

That is true, also Ukrainians and Chechens have on average different worldviews and most importantly religion, my point was about the fact that Moscow got their way by simply paying up. They were equally met with huge resistance back in the 90's in Chechnya. If Zelensky would have been a man who cares more about money than values I'm sure Moscow would have made some sort of a similar unwritten deal. After all the previous Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych essentially had a similar attitude as Ramzan has now, I'm loyal and I get some money.
But it seems Zelensky is a strong nationalist (good for him) and so are a large part of Ukrainians and that probably made a lot of people mad in Moscow.

Honestly I don't think Russians both civilians and militarists alike are too pleased with the option they have chosen, not only it hits the "pocket" but this war in Ukraine is harder than they probably thought.

 

[russ_watters]

Really? I was pretty certain that wasn't the case. I was under the impression that Ukraine, the 'West', Nato, all refused to negotiate.

It was mostly France/Macron going it alone as far as I could tell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...plomacy-face-questions-themselves-2022-02-23/

But I agree with the others that there really wasn't much to say.

 

[artis]

For those that are interested, here is an interview with a former Putin friend current "enemy" one of the richest men in Russia, billionaire Sergei Pugachev
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Pugachev

He was there among Yeltsin's "enablers" back when they picked their most favorable candidate to lead Russia further. Now given they are not on good terms anymore, take his views with a bit of "salt" but overall the man has a good opinion, definitely interesting since he has been with Putin for many years.
English captions are available.



For those that don't have the time to watch all of it but wonder what are his thoughts on the possibility of nuclear war , here is what he says: "The distance between Putin and his general are larger than west thinks, and that in the absence of a clear NATO threat or other actions, even if Putin goes for the nuclear option he thinks his generals will refuse, this is about global war. Then he was asked whether they could use some tactical warheads on Ukraine, and he was also negative, he said unlikely, they will try to save their skin overall."

He also says that most of what is to be expected from Russian forces they already have showed so far, and that the morale of their generals in any of this is so medium to low that the idea they could agree to a command to use nuclear force is out of the picture.

This can be taken into the context of what has been seen so far that some Russian units have outright refused to participate while others have covertly deserted leaving behind tanks and weapons which as @Rive already showed are sometimes towed away by Ukrainian farmers.

 

[PeroK]

It was mostly France/Macron going it alone as far as I could tell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...plomacy-face-questions-themselves-2022-02-23/

That article quotes the French far-right candidate mocking Macron for his efforts.

One of the issues, of course, is that in order to seek a diplomatic solution the demands on the table must be reasonable. It's a bit rich, IMO, to blame the failure of diplomacy when one side is probably bent on war and knowingly makes impossible demands.

If someone comes to your door, sticks a gun in your face and demands you hand over the deeds to your house, what sort of diplomacy could solve that conundrum?

 

[snorkack]

After all the previous Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych essentially had a similar attitude as Ramzan has now, I'm loyal and I get some money.
But it seems Zelensky is a strong nationalist (good for him) and so are a large part of Ukrainians and that probably made a lot of people mad in Moscow.

A part of Ukrainians were nationalists then, and another part were not nationalists then, but are now.
But what really broke the bank in 2013: Europe and Moscow were not, between them, willing to cough up enough for Yanukovych´ supporters and his enemies. The negotiations between Europe and Yanukovych stalled. Europe demanded strings attached for their money, which was not enough to keep Yanukovych´ supporters and enemies happy. Moscow offered alternative for Yanukovych and his supporters, but this was not enough for Yanukovych´ opponents. Yanukovych picked Moscow, his opponents rose in Maidan and overthrew him in his term... and that´s next round of escalation.

And this escalation wears out the goodwill and trust of Russia´s supporters. Most Ukrainians (a narrow majority) voted for Yanukovych. A large fraction of Yanukovych´ former supporters regarded Russia as better than Maidan in March 2014 - a large fraction did not. Et cetera.

 

[fresh_42]

A part of Ukrainians were nationalists then, and another part were not nationalists then, but are now.

I truly hope you distinguish between nationalists and Nazis. Putin does not. Beside that, can you provide ANY evidence for this claim?

Ukrainians have a different language. Hence they are not Russians. Simple as that.

Yanukovych picked Moscow, his opponents rose in Maidan and overthrew him in his term... and that´s next round of escalation.

Which is not a matter of Russia!

 

[russ_watters]

That article quotes the French far-right candidate mocking Macron for his efforts.

Yeah, I didn't put a lot of effort into googling for a better one. I was mostly just aiming to show that it happened.

I agree that the odds of success were low, but as someone who has a relationship with Putin he had a responsibility to try.

 

[snorkack]

Ukrainians have a different language. Hence they are not Russians. Simple as that.

Actually, it has the more complex part!
A lot of people who spoke Russian as first language and have always lived in Ukraine regard themselves as Ukrainians now... and did not think so in 1991, or 2013.

 

[PeroK]

I wonder whether this thread is inevitably becoming too political? I admit I've made my feelings clear, but ultimately there is no authority who can say what to believe.

What seems self-evident to me is simply part of the "empire of lies" to others.

We are all free outside PF to say whatever we want on the subject of Ukraine. Perhaps it's time to close this thread as there is no core set of facts upon which we can all agree.