Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[wrobel]

 

[Hall]

View attachment 298204

I really didn't get that. Can you please explain?

 

[pinball1970]

I really didn't get that. Can you please explain?

Its a pro Russian symbol, Z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/letter-z-russia-symbol-pro-war/

 

[neilparker62]

I think we need a 'reset' on this conflict and we need it urgently if I'm not stating the obvious. We need to stop the carnage of Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter) and then we need to rethink how on Earth such a disaster could ever arise.

After that we need to reboot ISS. We need to reboot the iconic day on which McDonald's opened in Moscow. We need to reboot the global internet and stop talking a lot of nonsense about firewalls which perpetuate archaic ideologies. We need to reboot joint endeavours on nuclear fusion and on space exploration. In short we need to reboot global sanity.

Just my ha'penny's worth!

 

[artis]

and then we need to rethink how on Earth such a disaster could ever arise.

Deep down , abstracting away from the current situation, it's simple I think, but hard to accomplish in reality. Given we all are born as babies, small little harmless things it is then our nature combined with too much power for too long, + resentment and anger. I think we cannot fundamentally change human nature (many have tried with force with no luck) but we can put systems in place that don't allow people to get too much power for too long.
The west did this hundreds of years ago , Russia has never done it, the result is before our eyes.

 

[phinds]

I think we need... we need... We need ... we need ... we need ... We need ...
We need ... We need ... we need ...

Needing things is pointless if there is no way to get them. You're like Captain Hindsight who swoops in after a disaster and points out "well, what we SHOULD have done was ... "

 

[neilparker62]

Needing things is pointless if there is no way to get them.

Fair comment but at least put an alternate vision on the table. It's like buying a ticket for the lottery - you have a miniscule probability of winning but at least better than if you did not buy a ticket at all.

 

[gmax137]

we need ... we need...

Needing things is pointless if there is no way to get them. You're like Captain Hindsight who swoops in after a disaster and points out "well, what we SHOULD have done was ... "

Unless the first quote ends with "So, starting today I am going to do xxx" then yes it is pointless. Many people say "we need to do x" but what they mean is "somebody else needs to do x" If everyone actually did something we might make some progress.

not picking on you in particular, @neilparker62

 

[neilparker62]

""That's some question. Here? Nazis? Fascists? These people? Guys what are you talking about? These are not fascists or Nazis? Look at them. These are Ukrainians. It's simple."

Volodymyr Dehtyarov: Soviet army veteran

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60685723

So "Guys" - what are you talking about actually ?

 

[Hall]

Its a pro Russian symbol, Z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/letter-z-russia-symbol-pro-war/

Does it mean that wrobel has lately come to condemn the war?

 

[phinds]

Does it mean that wrobel has lately come to condemn the war?

? When did he ever NOT condemn the war? @wrobel am I missing something here?

 

[DennisN]

An article on BBC today about war crimes and legal matters regarding prosecution etc.

What is a war crime, and could Putin be prosecuted over Ukraine? (BBC News, 10th March 2022)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60690688

 

[DennisN]

Here are two recent, interesting interviews with Andrei Kozyrev (Russian Foreign Minister from 1991 to 1996), which I post in addition to my previous interview posts (#653 and #734):

Putin Is Acting ‘Out Of Desperation’ Says Ex-Russian Foreign Minister (MSNBC, March 9 2022)


Kremlin Vet: They’ll Overthrow Putin Before Giving Him ‘Bad News’ About Russian Setbacks In Ukraine (MSNBC, March 10, 2022)

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think we need a 'reset' on this conflict and we need it urgently if I'm not stating the obvious.

Russia's likely response is "what you mean 'we', kemosabe?"

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...e-hold-highlevel-talks-after-hospital-bombing
Russia denies bombing children's hospital

The Russian Defense Ministry denied has responsibility for striking a maternity hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol and claimed that the explosions that hit the building were staged to smear Russia.

Ukrainian officials said the Russian air strike on the hospital killed three people, including a child, and wounded 17 others. The attack has caused global outrage.

Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov denied that the Russian military struck the hospital. He claimed that the two explosions that ravaged the building were caused by explosive devices planted nearby in what he described as a "staged provocation to incite anti-Russian agitation in the West."

From the same link:
Zelenskyy: Invasion will backfire

Ukraine's president is telling Russian leaders that their country’s invasion of Ukraine will backfire, by landing them in court and making their people hate them.

“You will definitely be prosecuted for complicity in war crimes,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video released Thursday (local time).

The West has slapped harsh financial and economic sanctions on Russia because of the invasion, and the Ukrainian leader said the consequences will be felt by all Russians.

“And then, it will definitely happen, you will be hated by Russian citizens — everyone you have been deceiving constantly, daily, for many years in a row, when they feel the consequences of your lies in their wallets, in their shrinking possibilities, in the stolen future of Russian children.”

 

[DennisN]

Ukraine maps: At-a-glance guide to the Russia war (BBC News, The Visual Journalism Team, 10 Mar 2022)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

"About these maps", quote:

To indicate which parts of Ukraine are under control by Russian troops we are using daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project.

[...]

To show key areas where advances are taking place we are also using daily updates from the UK Ministry of Defence and BBC research. To show locations where there have been attacks or explosions we are using reports that have been verified by the BBC.

 

[fresh_42]

I just saw on tv: "Jewish center in Berlin organizes rescue plan".

It is getting absurder by the day: According to the Russian narrative, we have Jewish people rescuing Nazis.

 

[wrobel]

? When did he ever NOT condemn the war? @wrobel am I missing something here?

no you are not; I condemn the war the whole war since 2014

 

[256bits]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...e-hold-highlevel-talks-after-hospital-bombing
Russia denies bombing children's hospital

From the same link:
Zelenskyy: Invasion will backfire

The fog of war.
I don't even know who is winning.
But I do know both sides are losing.

 

[256bits]

5% of the total Ukrainian population are currently refugees. Only counted those abroad.

And will they stay there. Mostl are in Poland as I understand.
Canada has( had ) the 3 rd largest ethnic group claiming Ukrainian ancestry, after the countries of Ukraine and Russia.
Around 1900's free land ( with the 99 year lease thing ) as long as you put up a house - no speculation - was given to immigrants, no questions asked Funny thing is they settled not on the best farming land, but land with trees and timber, the reason being that in the old country timber was 'had to be asked for' and maybe you got and maybe not. Free land with timber was like a god send, but maybe not the best in the long run to have this still cultural baggage brought over to the new country. Some land taken was even swampy, but that is what was asked for rather than clear prairie land ( which would have been better and easier to farm ).
No free land any more, so I do wonder how many Canada will bring in, and if the border agencies still keep their beaucratic BS alive and well to determine if they are 'acceptable' for our country - up to a 2 -3 year wait. Saying and doing don't match at times.

Or perhaps the refugees will want to come to the new world, or not, and stay in Europe.

I can't remember if ...ski , or ...sky is Polish or Ukrainian.
At school we could opt for either french or Ukranian as second language.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Thanks, Russia. We'll be sure to send you the bill to pay later on.

Ormsby said continued uncertainty over the Ukraine crisis and the ban on Russian fuel by the US and the UK had reverberated across the market, leading to crude oil prices rising to levels not seen since 2008.

A Z Energy spokesman agreed the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to create volatility on the international markets for refined fuels, which had led to further rises.

“Based on this global situation, Z can confirm that it has increased the price of fuel across all grades as it is no longer able to absorb the significant international price pressures.”

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/12...hout-the-country-drivers-warned-of-price-hike

 

[Rive]

Wiki wars:

Current operators of Tor missile system, older version:

Even the reference were set:



Strictly speaking, it's trolling (19 edit that day). Yet, it made my day...

 

[artis]

Sometimes, I really don't get who are Nazis? Was Hitler, Goebbles and Himmler were the only Nazis? Weren't US soldiers in Vietnam were Nazis? Aren't those extremists of Sunni and Shia (saying only their sect is allowed to live) Nazis? Or simply carrying a Swastik and using the word Aryan will make me a Nazi?

The term "Nazi" came into language since Adolf Hitler's 3rd Reich and the rule of National Socialists in Germany leading up to WW2 including it.
Ever since it is used as a blanket statement for any individual or group that views any other group (especially Jewish people) to be lesser in value.
It is used so widely that not every use of this term is appropriate , the original meaning is strictly speaking about National Socialists who following Hitler's doctrine believed Jewish people as well as other races to be inferior and therefore subject to worse treatment or extermination altogether.

The conflict in Vietnam had nothing to do with National socialism, it was a proxy war between the US and the USSR. The beginnings of it were a nationalistic communist movement (together with other independence movements) that first sought freedom from French rule in Vietnam, then fought Japanese invasion during WW2 and then French rule once again after the war. US simply sided with France and fought against communists which after WW2 had gained full control of the Vietnam independence movement. So it was largely a war between ideology and for territorial control. This is what I recall is short.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viet_MinhAs for the Islamic radicals , they again I would argue are not Nazi's because they don't judge by your race or ethnicity (at least not to a large degree)but by your religious practice. The Sunni-Shia conflict began back after Muhammad's death as they couldn't agree which should be his successor, either his father in law or son in law.

That is to the best of my knowledge. Nazi aka National socialist among others things believes in the superiority of one race/genetics over others ones.

 

[artis]

On the serious side, it has been long said that all radical (left or right) regimes share some common features. It was forbidden in the USSR to compare Soviet government with certain attributes of Nazi Germany, but they definitely shared many common factors.
This morning I saw someone made this picture with regards to the current crisis and it made me think...
The Z propaganda is "lectured" in Russian schools now from what I read, similar indoctrination just on a larger scale happened in Komsomol back in the day.

 

[Hall]

@artis You have established, very beautifully, how miserable and fundamental blunder it is to paint Putin as Hitler by newspapers and internet users.

 

[artis]

@artis You have established, very beautifully, how miserable and fundamental blunder it is to paint Putin as Hitler by newspapers and internet users.

Well I personally think Putin shares some personality traits with Adolf, but in general this invasion has not much to do with "Nazism" , it is only used as a slogan and an excuse.

 

[artis]

 

[DennisN]

I have read statements like this one lately on various youtube channels:

"Dear Mr. Putin, these are not sanctions. This is a special financial operation. We are here to save your economy."

Commenters can be clever.

 

[DennisN]

A fascinating interview:

Russian State TV Pundits Call On Putin To End Ukraine Attacks (MSNBC, Mar 11, 2022)

Journalists Molly Schwartz, Julia Davis and Michael Wasiura join MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell to discuss the “radical change” in Vladimir Putin’s propaganda as some pundits on Russian state TV called for Putin to end the war as harsh sanctions and growing protests destabilize life in Russia.

 

[neilparker62]

Russia's likely response is "what you mean 'we', kemosabe?"

From the Kremlin I've no doubt you're right. Elsewhere in Russia I would gauge the mood to be somewhat restive. See post #975.

"kemosabe": umuntu ohlola amazwe angaziwa kahle

Roughly translated into Zulu.

 

[phinds]

Elsewhere in Russia I would gauge the mood to be somewhat restive.

Not only do I think you are right but I think it is clearly going to accelerate as the economic conditions worsen and everyone realizes that their access to the rest of the world has been severely curtailed.

The question that matters, however, is whether or not that will make any difference. How tight is Putin's grip on the reins of power? Very strong, I suspect.

 

[PeroK]

I believe we owe a huge debt to the Ukrainians. If Russia had rolled over Ukraine and they were marching today in the streets of Kyiv bearing posters of the little dictator, then there's every chance Russia would have struck west immediately, before Nato had time to think.

At the very least they have shattered any delusions that Putin and his supporters have that they could roll through Eastern Europe and establish a new Russian empire.

If the Russian people, politicians and military commanders are willing to take a stand against Putin, I've yet to see it. A few thousand brave souls have been arrested of course, but the vast majority of 140 million for one reason or other seem incapable of acting against him.

 

[neilparker62]

I believe we owe a huge debt to the Ukrainians. If Russia had rolled over Ukraine and they were marching today in the streets of Kyiv bearing posters of the little dictator, then there's every chance Russia would have struck west immediately, before Nato had time to think.

At the very least they have shattered any delusions that Putin and his supporters have that they could roll through Eastern Europe and establish a new Russian empire.

Paddington a little bit tougher than expected!

 

[Borg]

If the Russian people, politicians and military commanders are willing to take a stand against Putin, I've yet to see it. A few thousand brave souls have been arrested of course, but the vast majority of 140 million for one reason or other seem incapable of acting against him.

It will take time for the effects of the sanctions to bite everyone. People can be completely clueless until they get run over the bus that's headed for them. I have heard of Russians who have the attitude of "we've had hard times and we'll be fine. I'll grow my own potatoes if I have to...". However, Russian millennials under 30 have for the most part, not been through that. Many of their favorite social media sites are gone and what little is left of their online lives is headed for the toilet. Add to that, the lack of credit cards since the big three had shut down all operations and you have a country full of youth going through things that they've never seen or experienced. It will take time for them to be affected but I'm sure that many will eventually start to rebel.

Note that I don't see rebellion to necessarily to be limited to street demonstrations. For example, during the cold war, Russians had little access to western luxuries like jeans. Only people who were high up or traveled to other countries could get them. However, people could see that some people had these things and wanted them for themselves as well. Over time, this did have an eroding effect on Russian society. In the current situation, people in Russia have had the western luxuries that they've been used to for decades suddenly taken from them. The disaffection of the Russian people is likely to be more immeadiate as a result. Again, it will take time but I believe it to be the best of the few available options.

 

[artis]

I believe we owe a huge debt to the Ukrainians. If Russia had rolled over Ukraine and they were marching today in the streets of Kyiv bearing posters of the little dictator, then there's every chance Russia would have struck west immediately, before Nato had time to think.

At the very least they have shattered any delusions that Putin and his supporters have that they could roll through Eastern Europe and establish a new Russian empire.

If the Russian people, politicians and military commanders are willing to take a stand against Putin, I've yet to see it. A few thousand brave souls have been arrested of course, but the vast majority of 140 million for one reason or other seem incapable of acting against him.

Well finally I can say I for once fully agree with your whole comment, Zelensky might overestimate some figures to give his fighters more motivation but one thing I take him at his word is that "Ukrainians are now fighting the battle which could have happened elsewhere in Europe"
Ukraine serves as a lightning rod, sadly of course.

I think that two major factors also save the day currently,
1) Russia apparently due to whatever reasons (I suspect corruption and vodka to some level) had overestimated the combat readiness of their 20 year old average school boy obligatory military service conscripts, they so far have underperformed heavily, and understandably they have low motivation to fight fellow Slavic people.
2) Russia (and the whole world truth be told) apparently underestimated the hatred Ukrainians have for Russia and how ready they are to fight.I mean we can only speculate how far Putin would have gone if he were able to roll through Ukraine easily, thankfully due to this operation going longer NATO has the time to now assemble troops and weapons that arguably should have been here a long time ago, but at least if there is one good thing from all of this is that European leaders as well as NATO hopefully have no more illusions as to what they are facing.
Looking towards the future I am not that optimistic that Russians will now rise up as one and do the right thing and give birth to democracy or something resembling it. I could argue my points here but then I would again be irritating to some most likely and would have to come back and apologize again so let me not make that mistake.

My only concern is this -if the whole Ukraine deal goes south and Russia does suffer defeat , if they don't change their thinking and government to a large degree then they could come back years later but this time much better prepared...
And don't tell me there aren't examples of such in history. I recall the terrorists who bombed the WTC in New York in 1993, came back differently in 2001 but this time finished the job and got a result they themselves probably didn't even hope for.

People learn from their mistakes, evil people do the same, the result? They don't become nicer, just wiser in their evil deeds.