Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Astronuc]

From a discussion between Amy Goodman and Dr. Andrew Bacevich on Democracy Now.

One person who warned years ago about NATO expansion in Eastern Europe is William Burns, the current director of the CIA.

He served as U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008. In his memoir, The Back Channel, Burns wrote “sitting at the embassy in Moscow in the mid-nineties, it seemed to me that NATO expansion was premature at best and needlessly provocative at worst.” And then in 1995, Burns wrote a memo saying, “Hostility to early NATO expansion is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.” He’s talking about Russia. In another memo Burns wrote, “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” Again, those the words of the current director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns.

According to the discussion, the US and EU were too aggressive in expanding NATO to the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

In 1997, three former Warsaw Pact countries, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, were invited to join NATO. After this fourth enlargement in 1999, the Vilnius group of the Baltics and seven East European countries formed in May 2000 to cooperate and lobby for further NATO membership. Seven of these countries joined in the fifth enlargement in 2004. The latest waves of expansion saw 4 Southeastern European states join; Albania and Croatia joined in the sixth enlargement in 2009, Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO

NATO would not be needed but for the aggression of Putin.Under threat of violence, Putin is demanding among other things:

Ukraine cease military action, Ukraine change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, acknowledge Crimea

I have alternative demands:

Russia ceases military action in Ukraine, and withdraws forces.
Russia compensates Ukraine for damages due to invasion.
Russia cedes illegally seized territory, and a 100 km buffer zone from Ukrainian border, which is fully demilitarized.
Putin is arrested and tried for murder and other war crimes (the invasion itself is a war crime, and all resulting military actions in Ukraine).
Russia rewrites its Constitution to where it was prior to Putin, with guarantees of freedom of speech/expression, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, etc.

 

[pinball1970]

Unfortunately there is no real response to Mr Putin's "value proposition" other than Newton's Third Law. Equal and opposite!

Which could lead to an escalation. The options seem to be do nothing so he is not forced into a corner or force him into a corner.
Now he is telling other countries what they can and cannot do with respect to NATO membership...

 

[hutchphd]

NATO would not be needed but for the aggression of Putin.

I would quibble slightly here. NATO exists because of the possibility of Putin (and Stalin and Berea and Luckashenko and ...). It is the seeming proclivity of the "Soviet" states to elevate such people for whatever reason. Putin is just the most recent, hopefully not the worst.
Of course during that interval the US has had a few certifiably questionable choices, but hey nobody's perfect.
\

 

[DennisN]

Another recent Russian voice which describes the current difficulty of public revolting against Putin, but also about possible alternatives. Well worth watching and digesting, I think:

Russian opposition: We're not strong enough to stop Putin (Sky News, Mar 13, 2022)

Leonid Volkov is the former chief of staff for jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. He spoke to Sky's Sophy Ridge about the possibility of overthrowing the Russian president - but he said at the moment the opposition did not feel strong enough.

 

[Baluncore]

When evaluating organised crime protection rackets, NATO is clearly the preferred service provider. This is a turf war where, for the Russian Putin group to survive, it must recapture the Ukraine breadbasket, before that rogue resource can reach protection from NATO.

Putin's family has been on the descendent since many of it's oligarchs defected with the takings from Russia to London, where they can trust and receive more reliable protection from NATO.

It is clear that if the Putin group cannot quickly capture the Ukraine, it intends to go for Finland and then Sweden. If it does not, then it may be swallowed all the way up to it's Urals, from the east by China.

 

[fresh_42]

This is more than speculation. Please restrict those comments to more likely scenarios. And the Russians have bitten on granite in Finland once.

 

[neilparker62]

A couple of 'take-aways' from this interview (post #1019). Firstly Putin's rationality is questioned whereas before even his banned opposition thought he was at least rational. Secondly some of the 'elites' in Russia including senior military / retired military advised against war and are opposing it now.

Let's hope that the recent hints at a 'breakthrough' in talks turn out well!

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html

 

[DennisN]

It is clear that if the Putin group cannot quickly capture the Ukraine, it intends to go for Finland and then Sweden. If it does not, then it may be swallowed all the way up to it's Urals, from the east by China.

If you ask me, I think the most vulnerable (i.e. probable? - I don't know) targets for Putin are first and foremost (1) Moldova and (2) Georgia (and furthermore, those two countries are not NATO members). Russia already occupies (i.e. has troops present in) the breakaway state Transnistria (part of Moldova) and Abkhazia* and South Ossetia* (parts of Georgia).

Those locations are areas of "frozen conflicts" much like Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk are (previously) frozen conflicts between Putin's Russia and Ukraine.

Edit 1: *) If I remember correctly. I got uncertain if there currently are Russian troops present in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, so I'm currently checking up on it.

Edit 2: Yes, Russia has troops in South Ossetia.

Edit 3: Yes, Russia has troops in Abkhazia.

 

[Astronuc]

I heard today that Russia is planning to deploy mercenaries or contract paramilitary in Ukraine.

Among those mentioned are the Wagner Group, and apparently Syrian fighters, to the tune of several thousand (I heard 5000). Meanwhile, I heard that about 16,000 folks (veterans mostly) are traveling from Europe and outside, including US, Canada and Australia, to fight in Ukraine or otherwise, support the Ukrainian military.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagne...-hints-its-going-back-into-ukraine-undercover
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

NATO should increase support for Ukraine, and act sooner rather than later.

 

[Astronuc]

I would quibble slightly here. NATO exists because of the possibility of Putin (and Stalin and Berea and Luckashenko and ...). It is the seeming proclivity of the "Soviet" states to elevate such people for whatever reason. Putin is just the most recent, hopefully not the worst.

I would add Lukashenko (Belaurs) to my list as a co-conspirator with Putin. He should also be prosecuted.

 

[PeroK]

NATO should increase support for Ukraine, and act sooner rather than later.

As a minimum threaten Syria and Belarus with war if they take part. I know it's bullying the small guys, but if we sit back and let Russia's allies join in we should never forgive ourselves.

 

[fresh_42]

How embarrassing it must be to be stopped by a tv comedian and a heavy-weight boxer.

 

[artis]

Among those mentioned are the Wagner Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

The Wagner Group itself was first active in 2014,[1] along with Utkin, in the Luhansk region of Ukraine.[41] The company's name comes from Utkin's own call sign "Wagner" after the German composer Richard Wagner, which he is said to have chosen due to his passion for the Third Reich (Wagner being Adolf Hitler's favorite composer).[45][46] As such, some believe him to be a neo-Nazi,[47][48] with The Economist reporting Utkin has several Nazi tatoos

Even though I cannot independently verify wikipedia's claims something tells me they should be correct, after all why would a Russian intelligence service controlled group have a German title that coincides with the famous German composer's last name...

Given these statements it seems Putin should also "denazify" parts of his own special forces and possibly some areas of his country...
He should invade the Wagner Group wherever it is located at that time

 

[DennisN]

Wow!

As the media darkness has set over Russia and draconian measures have been put in place, there are still important and very, very brave voices coming from within. A very passionate and personal report from Moscow regarding visible effects of sanctions, blatant and shameful lies from the Kremlin media and personal feelings regarding the war in Ukraine. A stunning interview in a dire time.

Journalist risking jail to report from inside Russia speaks out (CNN, Mar 13, 2022)

Yevgenia Albats, a journalist in Moscow who is staying in Russia despite a new law that could jail journalists, speaks to CNN's Brian Stelter.

 

[BillTre]

Wow!

As the media darkness has set over Russia and draconian measures have been put in place, there are still important and very, very brave voices coming from within. A very passionate and personal report from Moscow regarding visible effects of sanctions, blatant and shameful lies from the Kremlin media and personal feelings regarding the war in Ukraine. A stunning interview in a dire time.

Journalist risking jail to report from inside Russia speaks out (CNN, Mar 13, 2022)

Yevgenia Albats, a journalist in Moscow who is staying in Russia despite a new law that could jail journalists, speaks to CNN's Brian Stelter.

These are examples of Profiles in Courage.

 

[DennisN]

These are examples of Profiles in Courage.

I completely agree. Such courage is truly inspiring.

 

[hutchphd]

This is all foreign to me. Is it really possible to build Gulags fast enough? Is it?

 

[BillTre]

I think China has done this.

 

[Vanadium 50]

And the Russians have bitten on granite in Finland once.

Is time for revenge!

 

[Astronuc]

Interesting development in Russia:
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-apos-reported-arrest-russian-022103562.html

Andrew Miller
Sat, March 12, 2022, 9:21 PM·3 min read

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly placed one of his top intelligence officials on house arrest, a move that one expert tells Fox News Digital would be a sign that he is seeking to shift blame for a Ukrainian invasion that U.S. intelligence believes has not gone according to plan.

According to a report from the Sunday Times, Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov claims that Putin has arrested the head of the Federal Security Service, Sergey Beseda. Fox News has not independently confirmed this.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-journalist-brent-renaud-killed-164947506.html

Brent Renaud, an award-winning American video journalist who had been covering Russia's war against Ukraine, was shot dead Sunday near Kyiv, according to local police and witnesses.

Renaud, 50, and another reporter came under gunfire in Irpin, a suburb north of the capital, according to Kyiv Regional Police Chief Andriy Nebytov. The police chief shared photos on Facebook of Renaud's passport and a New York Times press badge with his photo, as well as a cropped image purporting to be of his bloodied corpse.

Russia still receives tacit, if not overt, support from other nations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...order-is-emerging-from-putin-s-war-on-ukraine

 

[StevieTNZ]

The Government will cut fuel taxes by 25c a litre for the next three months – and halve public transport fares.

The change for petrol will take effect at 11.59pm on Monday and is expected to save up to $17 for a tank of fuel.

Road user charges for diesel vehicles will be cut by a similar amount, but this may not happen as rapidly. This will also apply for three months.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern introduced the changes as a response to a “global energy crisis” brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has sent petrol prices above $3 a litre.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/po...alves-public-transport-fares-for-three-months

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/things-only-worse-putins-war-113944816.html
Yahoo headline - Russians outraged by what they see as a criminal war
NY Times - 'Things Will Only Get Worse.' Putin's War Sends Russians Into Exile.

Anton Troianovski and Patrick Kingsley
Mon, March 14, 2022, 7:39 AM·8 min read

Russians who fled to Turkey at the apartment of a volunteer in Istanbul, March 12, 2022. (The New York Times)
ISTANBUL — They lined up at ATMs, desperate for cash after Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in Russia, swapping intelligence on where they could still get dollars. At Istanbul cafes, they sat quietly studying Telegram chats or Google Maps on their phones. They organized support groups to help other Russian exiles find housing.

Tens of thousands of Russians have fled to Istanbul since Russia invaded Ukraine last month, outraged about what they see as a criminal war, worried about conscription or the possibility of a closed Russian border, or concerned that their livelihoods are no longer viable back home.

And they are just the tip of the iceberg. Tens of thousands more traveled to countries like Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan that are better known as sources of migration to Russia. At the land border with Latvia — open only to those with European visas — travelers reported waits lasting hours.

Hopefully, this is the beginning of the end of Putin and his ilk (or ick!)

 

[neilparker62]

Wow!

As the media darkness has set over Russia and draconian measures have been put in place, there are still important and very, very brave voices coming from within. A very passionate and personal report from Moscow regarding visible effects of sanctions, blatant and shameful lies from the Kremlin media and personal feelings regarding the war in Ukraine. A stunning interview in a dire time.

Journalist risking jail to report from inside Russia speaks out (CNN, Mar 13, 2022)

Yevgenia Albats, a journalist in Moscow who is staying in Russia despite a new law that could jail journalists, speaks to CNN's Brian Stelter.

Kharkiv 95% Russian speaking ! Have you lost the plot altogether Mr Putin - you are busy bombing and shelling kith and kin?! An enormous tragedy not just for Ukraine but for all of Russia..

 

[Astronuc]

WSJ - Russian Forces Kill Civilians, Loot for Supplies in Occupied Ukraine, Residents Say
Moscow detains elected officials, looks for pro-Russian collaborators as protests continue

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine—Russian forces are killing civilians and looting stores and homes across occupied parts of southern Ukraine, residents said, as Moscow arrested elected local leaders and sought to replace them with pro-Russian collaborators.

People arriving here from Russian-held areas over the weekend described hungry and undisciplined Russian troops shooting unarmed villagers, breaking into supermarkets and shops, and raiding homes in search of food and valuables as their own supply lines have failed.

“They just brazenly come in, without any shame, and take whatever they want,” said Valentyna Khodus, 64, who came to Zaporizhzhia from the small village of Myrne after days hiding in the cellar with her daughter and grandson as Russian troops went door to door ransacking houses.

Two neighbors who were driving a car with a Ukrainian flag were shot and killed by a Russian patrol last week, she said. “It’s still there, on the roadside, and their bodies are still inside,” Ms. Khodus said.

Russia says it isn’t planning an occupation of Ukraine and that its forces are liberating Ukrainians. It says it has only hit military targets and that any civilian casualties are the fault of what it calls Ukrainian nationalists and extremists.

. . . .

Russian attempts to seize Ukraine’s biggest cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv in the north have stalled in the face of fierce resistance. But in a rapid advance in the first week of the war, Moscow managed to take a swath of Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.

The gains have sparked concerns in Kyiv and the West that Russia intends to permanently separate those areas from Ukraine.

Signs are emerging that Moscow is preparing to rule them for the long haul.

Seriously?! Russia is replacing Ukrainian authorities with Russian or Russian-friendly Ukrainian officials. Putin will try to take control of all of Ukraine, and then probably start working on bordering nations.

In Melitopol, part of the Zaporizhzhia region, Russia on Saturday named municipal council member Galina Danilchenko to run the city and surrounding district after Russian soldiers detained the elected mayor, Ivan Fedorov, in a move Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky decried as an abduction.

All Russian military must leave Ukraine!

 

[BillTre]

Any new people the Russians put in (pun intended) will need round the clock Russian protection to survive.
Not a short term situation.

 

[fresh_42]

I wonder where to get reliable Cargo 200 (Russian proverb for "sent home in a zinc coffin") numbers from. The Ukrainian president talks about 12,000 and I saw 4,300 on a western news channel.

 

[vela]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/things-only-worse-putins-war-113944816.html
Yahoo headline - Russians outraged by what they see as a criminal war
NY Times - 'Things Will Only Get Worse.' Putin's War Sends Russians Into Exile.

Today's episode of the NY Times podcast The Daily talks about how most Russians in Russia see the war.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/14/podcasts/the-daily/ukraine-russia-family-misinformation.html

It may seem hard to accept people wholeheartedly buying into Putin's version of events despite Ukranian relatives telling them what's really happening, but we have a similar dynamic playing out in the US right now.

 

[hutchphd]

WSJ - Russian Forces Kill Civilians, Loot for Supplies in Occupied Ukraine, Residents Say
Moscow detains elected officials, looks for pro-Russian collaborators as protests continue

Seriously?! Russia is replacing Ukrainian authorities with Russian or Russian-friendly Ukrainian officials. Putin will try to take control of all of Ukraine, and then probably start working on bordering nations.

All Russian military must leave Ukraine!

Thus is has always been in times of war. There are no good wars and there are few military actions that end cleanly or well because crazy people are nearly always involved. (Granada being the posssible exception ! ) This one will be markedly different only if the Nuclear Pandora's Box is opened and the snakes pop out. We will get through this if we keep the faith (in humanity I mean but to each his own) But there are the those numbers and pictures. It is a terrible tragedy for every thinking person.
My operative personal question is how not to tumble into an abyss of depression. We need to consider ways to make it better and to stay out of that abyss. This forum certainly helps.

 

[Bandersnatch]

I wonder where to get reliable Cargo 200 (Russian proverb for "sent home in a zinc coffin") numbers from. The Ukrainian president talks about 12,000 and I saw 4,300 on a western news channel.

You can't. Accurate assessments might come after the war. For now, all you can do is treat the Ukrainian and Russian numbers as upper and lower bounds, with a provisional 'good guess' somewhere in the middle.

 

[PeroK]

It may seem hard to accept people wholeheartedly buying into Putin's version of events despite Ukranian relatives telling them what's really happening, but we have a similar dynamic playing out in the US right now.

Die Lüge wird zur Weltornung gemacht.

The lie will become the new world order.

Franz Kafka

 

[Astronuc]

Sobering opinion from Ukraine journalist, executive editor of the New Voice of Ukraine, an English-language news site.
Veronika Melkozerova - The Western World Is in Denial
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-western-world-is-in-denial/ar-AAV2LKZ
The Atlantic

Finally, the collective democratic world squeezed Russia with unprecedented sanctions.

However, this has not stopped Putin from bombing and destroying Ukraine. If anything, his resolve has only strengthened. The Kremlin knows that Russians will feel the full impact of sanctions in a month or so. It also knows that Europe is so dependent on Russian fossil fuels that such harsh sanctions likely won’t last long. I already see more and more tweets sympathizing with Russians, saying those people do not deserve the limitations imposed against their nation for Putin’s war.

This is the same nation where 58 percent of people support Putin’s actions in Ukraine, according to the latest polls. Putin doesn’t kill anyone in Ukraine with his own hands; other Russians are doing that. The Kremlin has been planning to invade and destroy the identity of my country, and to do it quickly, and the Russian people are backing it. Russians are making this calculation because they believe they can afford to. The Kremlin knows that the West, despite its public admiration for Ukrainian courage, has left Ukraine alone on the actual battlefield. Westerners would rather help Ukraine with weapons and money but stand aside.

I don't necessarily agree with the title, but certainly US and EU were in denial until the 'unthinkable' actually happened, and there was some denial on the part of the Ukrainian government, who didn't think an invasion was ineviable. It's much like Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941.

 

[artis]

I wonder where to get reliable Cargo 200 (Russian proverb for "sent home in a zinc coffin") numbers from. The Ukrainian president talks about 12,000 and I saw 4,300 on a western news channel.

I applaud the Ukrainians they have mastered Kremlin's own textbook on information warfare. Sure that also means you can't believe the numbers but still...
From what I read in international sources like Bellingcat it seems the lower number could be more correct and the higher one is inflated. Just like there are endless videos of stopped and destroyed Russian convoys being uploaded , sometimes the same just from different angles while I have seen very few Ukrainian ones. But when you search deeper you can also find those.

@Astronuc the sources you cited are noteworthy because around here many elders , well those that are still alive recall that the same exact thing happened in WW2, only back then the conditions were orders of magnitude worse than today, the winters were "Arctic" and food was scarce and when the Red army got the upper hand and started slowly but steadily defeating the Germans they rolled over once more eastern Europe but this time even more hungry (well those that were alive still) they just took everything they could get. Raw eggs and potatoes were good enough.
My own grandmother when she was still alive told me how at the beggining of war German soldiers lived in her house, it was a common practice , then as they left and Red army came , again soldiers in the house only this time as she said with worse outfits and manners. She laughed and said she liked the Germans better.
But looting in times of war I guess is normal unless you have a well prepared , paid and trained military that gets it's food and ammunition in a timely fashion , none of this is the case in Ukraine.

Just to end with one more thing, in WW2 the conditions were absolutely deadly for everyone, since most men had joined the army and many had died, in the latter years of the war even such common items as firewood were scarce. When the war ended, my grandma said , she had to use furniture and chairs for firewood. Before the war my grandfather had a large farm, lots of reserve, after the war he was labeled a criminal and sent to Siberia, all food was gone all money nationalized the farm destroyed and furniture burned for heating. Thank God Ukraine is not that bad now, but if this continues they could approach it.

 

[StevieTNZ]

A US official said Russia asked China for military equipment to use in its invasion of Ukraine, a request that heightened tensions about the ongoing war ahead of a Monday meeting in Rome between top aides for the US and Chinese governments.

In advance of the talks, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan bluntly warned China to avoid helping Russia evade punishment from global sanctions that have hammered the Russian economy. “We will not allow that to go forward,” he said. China in turn accused on Monday the US of spreading “disinformation.”

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said the talks with the US were underway but gave no other details.

If the Chinese are giving equipment to Russia, then China should be sanctioned just as bad as Russia. plane @ simple

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/300541042/us-official-russia-seeking-military-aid-from-china

 

[artis]

If the Chinese are giving equipment to Russia, then China should be sanctioned just as bad as Russia. plane @ simple

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/300541042/us-official-russia-seeking-military-aid-from-china

China is a funny country, no matter what you accuse them off they always deny it and claim it's disinformation and then when a world wide pandemic starts in one of their cities (or possibly lab's) then they say the US soldiers brought it to them... Not sure whether to laugh or cry

 

[pinball1970]

Attacks not far from the Polish boarder. I guess we will find out what his plan is soon enough.

If he dares attack Poland? NATO?

Anyway, the lady who was brought out on a stretcher from the maternity hospital made the headlines a few days ago. I'm sure you saw it.
I thought THAT is the image and we will see when this is over, her smiling with her mum when she has passed some Science exams 12 years from now. In the UK?
Like the napalm kid Vietnam, she is alive and doing ok.
Reports are she did not survive (plus mum)
Talks have resumed for a ceasefire but..
Yeah.
My personal attitude has changed, one inch into Poland? NATO does what it was set up to do.