Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Vanadium 50]

more forces are on the way

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

U.S. Senate unanimously condemns Putin as war criminal

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

 

[fresh_42]

I hope this is true:

 

[russ_watters]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base. And they're neighbors; no makeshift airbase or 24 hour missions from Missouri.

[Edit] Well, maybe this is due to the nature of the threat and goal. Russia wants to have Ukraine so it can't just destroy it. And Ukraine seems to be using mostly ground infantry/guerilla warfare (effectively) which is harder to defeat from the air than tank vs tank and plane.

 

[Astronuc]

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base.

Apparently, the Russian air forces lack 'smart' bombs, so they have to approach target straight and relatively low. The Ukrainians have Stinger missiles. The Russians pilots are avoiding targets, hence the artillery (10-50 miles) and rockets from 200-300 miles, i.e., from Russia.

Weapons like the 310-mile range Iskander missile or the BM-30 Smerch can conduct strikes at operational depth

Feb 16, 2022 - https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-would-be-artillery-and-missile-showdown-2022-2

Recognizing Ukraine desperately needed more assets to neutralize Russian artillery, the US reportedly donated to Ukraine from 2015-2019 13 AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder and 20 newer AN/TQP-53 Quick Reaction counterbattery radars.

The latter can detect rockets out to 37 miles (60 km) away, and shells, 21 miles away (36 km) while scanning across a 90 degree arc, or out to shorter distance in 180 degree scan modes.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/12/08/russia-longest-range-howitzer/

The Coalition’s (Koalitsiya-SV) firing range of 70-80 km (43-50 miles) is more than double that of the 2S19 at 30 km (18.6 miles). The gun’s range is on par with the American Extended Range Cannon Artillery, currently under development. The weapon reportedly fired its longest shot this year at 43.5 miles (70 km) using an M982A1 Excalibur guided artillery shell.

https://www.nammo.com/story/base-bleed-and-rocket-assist/

“Outgunned and outranged”
Russia’s BM-21 Grad systems are certainly not the only ones fielded by the former superpower. The BM-21s have an effective range of 20-45kms (depending on the rockets used). Russia also has access to a large number of other artillery systems:

• 9A52-4 “Tornado” MLRS: up to 90km range
• BM-30 “Smerch” MLRS: 70 to 90km range
• 2S7 “Pion” 203mm heavy artillery: 37,5 to 55km range
• TOS-1 220mm MLRS and thermobaric weapon: 0.5 to 6km range
• 2S19 Msta 152.4mm howitzer: 45 to 62km range
• 2S35 “Koalitsiya-SV” 152.4 or 155mm artillery: 40 to 80km range.

After Russia’s aggression against Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and the operations in Syria, NATO has once again been forced to recognize the country as a possible adversary. A thorough analysis of the country’s military capabilities show that NATO would not necessarily fare well in a conflict. A series of war games conducted by the RAND corporation in 2014 and 2015 concluded that NATO could not successfully defend its most exposed members in the Baltics. Artillery – in large numbers – with a much longer range than its western counterparts, advanced aerial defense systems (like the S-400), advanced, well-equipped and numerous armored forces, and extensive electronic warfare capabilities were among the factors giving Russian military the edge.

 

[phinds]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

I think you're right in the long run but it could give them a brief short-term boost.

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

No one has said don't try the guy, we'd just like to try him and THEN hang him

 

[Astronuc]

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

True, hence a resolution, not an act or bill. They can bring a case to the International Criminal Court. On the other hand, the UN and ICC seem rather ineffective in such matters.

Better yet, the US and EU should be sending aircraft to Ukraine, in addition to arms, munitions and missiles.

 

[fresh_42]

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base. And they're neighbors; no makeshift airbase or 24 hour missions from Missouri.

They have destroyed enough already. Thousands of buildings with hundreds of apartments each have been destroyed, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens, too. I think it is more a consequence of the complete absence of logistics. I think they lost their plans on day three and everything since then is improvisation.

 

[gmax137]

What surprised me

What surprises me is, we have not seen the "box truck full of fertilizer" on the streets near the Kremlin.

 

[artis]

What surprises me is, we have not seen the "box truck full of fertilizer" on the streets near the Kremlin.

You mean a truck similar to the one that blew up the government building in Oklahoma in 1995?

 

[DennisN]

More cracks in the Kremlin propaganda machine(!):

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations (BBC, 16th March 2022)​

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60763494

When Marina Ovsyannikova burst into Russian living rooms on Monday's nightly news, denouncing the war in Ukraine and propaganda around it, her protest highlighted a quiet but steady stream of resignations from Russia's tightly controlled state-run TV.

[...]

 

[DennisN]

They have destroyed enough already. Thousands of buildings with hundreds of apartments each have been destroyed, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens, too. I think it is more a consequence of the complete absence of logistics. I think they lost their plans on day three and everything since then is improvisation.

I agree in principle, but I have regretfully a darker twist on this. I was actually thinking of writing a post about this in this thread quite some time ago, but I did not want to do it, because it was so dark.

I have a feeling that the improvised "strategy" that evolved (which is horrendously barbaric) has been to intently target civilians and civilian infastructure more or less at random. And the objective with this is to force a partial (or complete) surrender by spreading terror. In short: so that the civilian plights and fears are too much for both the civilians and military to endure witnessing and handling.

I started to think along these dark lines after they attacked the nuclear site. After that I really started to try to think what their "strategy" could be because it did not make sense to me at all.

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

Edit 1:

I should also add that I sincerely hope atrocities will be thoroughly investigated, and prosecutions will be made in the future if possible.

Edit 2:

Correction: I did not start to think along these lines after the attack on the nuclear site. It was when I understood they were shelling the negotiated evacuation corridors. That really made me wonder what in the world they hope that would achieve. The only conclusion I came to was that they were using the civilians as pawns in a really cruel "game". And they've done this with evacuation corridors multiple times according to various reports.

 

[artis]

I agree in principle, but I have regretfully a darker twist on this. I was actually thinking of writing a post about this in this thread quite some time ago, but I did not want to do it, because it was so dark.

I have a feeling that the improvised "strategy" that evolved (which is horrendously barbaric) has been to intently target civilians and civilian infastructure more or less at random. And the objective with this is to force a partial (or complete) surrender by spreading terror. In short: so that the civilian plights and fears are too much for both the civilians and military to endure witnessing and handling.

I started to think along these dark lines when they attacked the nuclear site. After that I really started to try to think what their "strategy" was because it did not make sense to me.

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

Hard to say but I doubt that. In this case they gain nothing from such a strategy, apart from revenge and destruction. Their original strategy to the best of what experts have said so far and what also sounds reasonable was to take Ukraine within days before anyone would manage to make a strong enough campaign and sanctions against Russia and then "come to the table" from a position of power.
Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I myself definitely think that it wasn't among their goals to try to blow up a functioning nuclear reactor in a 6 reactor power plant that is the largest NPP in terms of MWe in Europe. That would be an idiotic strategy from any point of view. + Ukraine is close to "home" not just ethnically but physically, Russians had to use special airplanes and spray cloud forming aerosols to contain the particle contamination that traveled from Chernobyl towards Moscow over Belarus back in 1986.
I doubt anyone in Moscow wants that.

 

[DennisN]

Their original strategy to the best of what experts have said so far and what also sounds reasonable was to take Ukraine within days before anyone would manage to make a strong enough campaign and sanctions against Russia and then "come to the table" from a position of power.
Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I agree with this. But things did not go as planned. The first thrust against Kyiv was easily fended off by the Ukrainians. And then Putin does what he always have done: upping the ante.

Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I agree with this also. But maybe Putin has a different worldview. I really don't know. I've more or less stopped trying to think about what Putin thinks or believes at this moment, it seems so chaotic and maybe not quite in touch with reality.

 

[hutchphd]

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

This is not nerws. I think there is a glaring counterexample from WWII when the Luftwaffe shifted towards civilian targetting of London . I am not a student of war but I believe that is considered a counterproductive blunder and I believe the Ukraine people may be just as remarkable as were the Brits when it really counted. Personally I am humbled by both.

 

[BillTre]

Putin already has a history of destroying cities to attain goals his military is not able reach with normal military ways.
Examples of this are Grozny and Aleppo.

Nothing new to see here, just easier to see it, being in Europe and remaining integrated into the internet.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Yeah, it's the same strategy as in Syria. Which is why I don't share the optimism about Ukrainian chances some people express. The surprise push has failed, so now it's back to slow and steady. Pounding cities into submission like so many times before.

 

[BillTre]

This is the one military thing that Russia has shown itself capable of doing.
Beyond that they seem hopeless.

From what I have read, they have huge supply problems on many levels.
Can't get supplies much beyond their railroad in Russia. Don't have enough trucks. Running out of gas, food, ammo.
Truck aren't well maintained, their tires are failing. They don't have many replacement tires. Maybe not for 6 months. Truck attrition.
They can't buy the parts they need to make more of what they are using up. Electronics for smart bombs and rockets are not going to be coming from external non-Russian sources (except maybe China). They are using up their supplies of these with little hope of replacing them.
Their highly flaunted new weapons are not so good: new encrypted cell phones require the cell towers they have been destroying in order to work, their pilots are using commercial grade GPSs for navigation. Using unencrypted phones has been suggested as a reason they are losing so many generals.

Vs. the Ukrainians probably have more stingers and javelins than the Russians have airplanes and tanks.
The Ukrainian supply lines seem to be working OK in many cases. (Some EU leaders went to Kiev on a train).

It would not surprise me if the Ukrainians snip off some of the Russian supply lines end up taking whatever units were at its end. (I get the impression Putin does not want to retreat).

 

[PeroK]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

I don't dare to think or even hope that. The Russian Parliament and Military have followed him this far, why not follow him all the way? It will take some internal coup to overthrow him. That's seems like a random event that could happen tomorrow or never happen.

The Russians are now so steeped in blood that it's difficult to see a way back for them. They may decide that they may as well keep going to the bitter end, wherever that might eventually be. I wish I could feel more optimistic.

 

[BillTre]

 

[BillTre]

This was recorded about a year ago by former Russian MP Nevzorov.

His oppinion of the current Russian state is low, but his sarcasm is quite elevated.

 

[fresh_42]

There is a joke that currently goes around in Ukraine:

"Ask a Ukrainian to find a living dinosaur and he will get one in half an hour."

It means that there is large solidarity in the Ukrainian society and they help each other wherever they can.

 

[artis]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-congress-soviet-made-weapons-ukraine/index.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...could-target-western-arms-supplies-to-ukraine

“We warned the United States that the orchestrated pumping of weapons from a number of countries is not just a dangerous move, it is a move that turns these convoys into legitimate targets,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told state television on Saturday.

 

[Astronuc]

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said Russian troops "shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread" on Wednesday in the decimated northeast Ukrainian city of Chernihiv. The embassy did not cite what evidence it had of the attack in a statement posted on its official Twitter account.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-kill-10-cherihiv-bread-line-us-embassy-says/

Today, Russian forces shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in Chernihiv. Such horrific attacks must stop. We are considering all available options to ensure accountability for any atrocity crimes in Ukraine.

— U.S. Embassy Kyiv (@USEmbassyKyiv) March 16, 2022

With each day, the cost in human lives and suffering of Russia's war on Ukraine rises. The United Nations human rights office has registered about 600 civilian deaths, but the U.N. acknowledges the real toll is certain to be far higher. Ukrainian officials say thousands have been killed — more than 2,000 in the besieged southern city of Mariupol alone.

On Tuesday, Reuters interviewed Mykola Vasylinko in Kyiv, who said he had just fled to the capital from Chernihiv, where the situation was "much worse."

"This is no Chernihiv," he told Reuters. "They [Russian forces] have tried to erase [it] from the Earth's surface. They bomb residential areas, they specifically target residential buildings."

Chernihiv is one of several large cities very close to Ukraine's northeast border with Russia that have come under blistering artillery fire since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion and air war against Ukraine to start on February 24.

Something like 900 missiles have been fired from Russia into Ukraine, and that does not include artillery shells.

Either NATO needs to step up and take out the artillery and rocket launchers, or provide the means for Ukraine to do so!

 

[artis]

Either NATO needs to step up and take out the artillery and rocket launchers, or provide the means for Ukraine to do so!

I agree NATO needs to play bit tougher with Putin, I read Russian analysts almost all agree that if Putin doesn't see force put against him, and God forbid he manages to take Ukraine (even as a frozen conflict) then eventually with time he might move on to bigger targets. Being scared of Russia's thermonuclear arsenal, as powerful as it is, will only lead to escalation in the future and then again the risk for WW3 will be on the table only then with less options.
Now I have an idea as to "how to backfill" NATO state owned Russian S-300 given to Ukraine...
Step 1) Take the seized Russian oligarch money and yachts, sell the yachts and get more money
Step 2) Use the money seized from Russian oligarchs and buy new S-300 from Russia in cash (they might like dollars or euro given the current value of Ruble)
If Step 2 doesn't work because Russians get mad use step 3

Step 3) Give the seized money to a Russian ally, pay them extra , they buy the weapons and then transfer them to the countries that are part of NATO which gave them to Ukraine. If Kremlin asks "what the hell?" then simply reply - we don't know! Most likely a special military operation...

 

[DennisN]

I hope this is true:

I've heard of several streets in Europe with Russian embassies changing names to something about Ukraine.
I think there's one proposal in Sweden going on. I'll see if I can find an article about it.

Update: Yes. The street on which the Russian embassy is located on in Stockholm, Sweden, may get a new name related to Ukraine. It is currently being discussed.

(Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/ryska-ambassaden-kan-fa-ukraina-adress, Swedish only)

And there's a similar suggestion in Gothenburg, Sweden, for the Russian consulate.

(Source: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/över-300-personer-vill-ha-zelenskyjs-gata-i-göteborg-1.67835054, Swedish only)

 

[artis]

 

[PeroK]

I've heard of several streets in Europe with Russian embassies changing names to something about Ukraine.
I think there's one proposal in Sweden going on. I'll see if I can find an article about it.

Update: Yes. The street on which the Russian embassy is located on in Stockholm, Sweden, may get a new name related to Ukraine. It is currently being discussed.

(Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/ryska-ambassaden-kan-fa-ukraina-adress, Swedish only)

And there's a similar suggestion in Gothenburg, Sweden, for the Russian consulate.

(Source: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/över-300-personer-vill-ha-zelenskyjs-gata-i-göteborg-1.67835054, Swedish only)

This is all well and good, but if I was in Ukraine being shelled I would ask Sweden "is that all you've got for us?" Renaming a street? It's hardly an exercise in courage.

 

[DennisN]

This is all well and good, but if I was in Ukraine being shelled I would ask Sweden "is that all you've got for us?" Renaming a street? It's hardly an exercise in courage.

I don't see it so much as an exercise in courage.
I see it as a morale/psychological effort. It is sending a signal to the Russians that "we stand with Ukraine", "we do not fear you" and that "we do as we please on our own land." Sort of a foreign "homefront".

Which is made in addition to supplying funds, humanitarian aid, food and military equipment to Ukraine (which we've done).

 

[fresh_42]

I hope this is true:

View attachment 298434

It is true!​

Look at Google Maps:

 

[Astronuc]

Russian troops destroy theater in Mariupol​

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials say Russian forces destroyed a theater in the city of Mariupol where hundreds of people were sheltering.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-4b454893e43526a2103c80e8562cbd73

The Maxar satellite imagery firm said images from Monday showed the word “children” had been written in large white letters in Russian in front of and behind the building.

Nowhere has suffered more than the encircled city of Mariupol, where local officials say missile strikes and shelling have killed more than 2,300 people. The southern seaport of 430,000 has been under attack for almost all of the three-week war in a siege that has left people struggling for food, water, heat and medicine.

Bodies of children litter streets.

So, it appears the Russian strategy is to murder children and civilian/non-combatants.

 

[StevieTNZ]

 

[Vanadium 50]

So, it appears the Russian strategy is to murder children and civilian/non-combatants.

]russian accent]Good. Make softer targets and do not challenge Mother Russia when growing up. [/russian accent]

Seriously why do you find this surprising? This is a war Putin cannot afford to lose.

 

[Astronuc]

Seriously why do you find this surprising? This is a war Putin cannot afford to lose.

I know, but it's not clear to me that those who talk about a 'diplomatic' solution, or an off-ramp, understand that.

This is a war that Putin must lose, and Russia must pay a price.

Time to liberate Russia from Putin and his crony oligarchs.

 

[DennisN]

A long and intense article:

"'We all will be judged.' Russian prisoners of war voice disquiet, shame over war in Ukraine" (CNN, March 16, 2022)
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/europe/ukraine-russian-prisoners-of-war-intl/index.html

Note:

[...]
Their public appearances may be questionable under the Geneva Conventions, which forbid states from causing unnecessary humiliation to prisoners of war. And it is possible that they felt pressure to express views sympathetic to those of their captors.

But three captured Russian air force pilots who spoke to CNN did not suggest they were speaking under duress.

CNN requested access to speak with the prisoners with the Ukrainian Interior Ministry. That request was made prior to a press conference that took place in Kyiv on Friday. CNN spoke with the three men immediately after that press conference.
[...]

I saw a news clip about this from CNN earlier today also, and they provided only quotes and no pictures/filming of the prisoners. It's available on youtube.

 

[StevieTNZ]

It is true!​

Look at Google Maps:

Similar to what has happened in Wellington - https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-po...ts-by-renaming-wellington-street-zelenskiy-rd

Pranksters in Wellington have renamed Messines Rd – where the Russian Embassy is based – to “Zelenskiy Rd” in honour of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Wellington City Council spokesperson Richard MacLean said the council would change the sign back eventually, but it was not a top priority.

“We recognise and sympathise with the international outrage over the Russian invasion. We also acknowledge that our contractors are very, very busy at the moment and may not be able to attend to this issue as a matter of urgency,” Maclean said.

“We hope residents in the neighbourhood will understand.”