Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Oldman too]

A few casual observations.

"Russia also used Donbas as a training ground" That checks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_separatist_forces_in_Donbas
It is widely believed that the separatists are supported by the Russian Armed Forces. Ukraine, the United States, and some analysts consider 1st and 2nd Army Corps to be Russian formations under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army, which was formed in 2017 in Novocherkassk, Rostov oblast.
Does a double take upon reading the beginning of that last link... "Russian separatist forces in Donbas are militias and armed volunteer groups" Where do I remember that game plan from.

"whenPutin strikes Ukraine with a low-yield tactical nuke" I just don't want to go there right now.

"They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny." This would be an exception to that rule.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system
"According to the JIT, the Buk that was used originated from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Russian Federation and had been transported from Russia on the day of the crash,"

"There is no acceptable reason for why the US is not circumventing the issue of air support." I wasn't even aware of the Budapest Memorandum, That changes my view, why isn't this in the mainstream news?
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/

"Fighter jets and drones can always be paired with "volunteers" that are ex-military experts in operating whatever they send." See first link provided, it's a very old game plan.

"You don't need plausible deniability for Putin to act retarded. He blames the West for everything anyway. He does what he wants regardless of it being reasonable or not." Agreed, although a political party in the U.S. has in the past thirty years, re-engineered that into "plausible lie-ability.

 

[artis]

"They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny." This would be an exception to that rule.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system
"According to the JIT, the Buk that was used originated from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Russian Federation and had been transported from Russia on the day of the crash,"

Yes and from what I recall reading in the Russian sites back when it happened is that many in Moscow were rather angry about their supported guys blatant mistake. There was some fury going on. Sure enough Moscow did not admit guilt publicly but it definitely wasn't in their intentions back then to escalate this needlessly that I am sure of. I think what happened is they supplied weapons including the Buk to the separatists but not all of them are/were well trained Russian army members. Some were some were not and they just "locked in" the wrong target. I don't want to make this sound apologetic, it was a war crime but the reality is it was a war crime made by a stupid mistake because people who did not have enough experience operating a complex weapons system aimed at the wrong target.

This is unlike the historical KAL 007 incident back in 1983 where the Boeing was shot down intentionally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

I wasn't even aware of the Budapest Memorandum, That changes my view, why isn't this in the mainstream news?

I think everybody realizes that it has lost all meaning. Why? Well because EU and US did pretty much nothing back in 2014 when this started.
Anyway you do know what it would mean if they upheld that memorandum part , they would have to have a direct war with Russia either way. It just seems to me nobody wants that, not even now.

 

[Rive]

I recall reading in the Russian sites back when it happened is that many in Moscow were rather angry about their supported guys blatant mistake.

Erm. A weapon system of that complexity is not something a random 'supported guy' can use.
I think it's highly probable that the actual user was present somewhere in the registry of the Russian army.

 

[artis]

Erm. A weapon system of that complexity is not something a random 'supported guy' can use.
I think it's highly probable that the actual user was present somewhere in the registry of the Russian army.

Well I'm afraid we won't know the actual answers to details like that, all we know is the Buk system came from Russian territory and that Russian government and military organized the operations in 2014. How much was then given to local militiamen is up to speculation. There were some rather "interesting" characters that played a role in the 2014 operations. One of them is this guy,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

 

[Borg]

When I saw the 900K Ukrainian soldiers number earlier, I did previously see a number like that but not in that context. It was listed as the total number of Ukrainian reserves on this Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

 

[Office_Shredder]

Well I think you would be amazed at how fast they learn, people tend to do that when everything is on the line for them. I think the reason they aren't getting all these nice things and did not get the Mig's on top is because NATO is trying to play the plausible deniability game. Pretty much the same tactics Russia used for 2014 invasion. They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny.

But nobody is denying or hiding the weapons they are giving Ukraine, so what's your point? The mig thing I weakly suspect got blown up because they did want to deny giving Ukraine those planes.

The drone thing is easier because Ukraine is buying those.

The US is also giving Ukraine free drones.

 

[Isopod]

Well I think you would be amazed at how fast they learn, people tend to do that when everything is on the line for them. I think the reason they aren't getting all these nice things and did not get the Mig's on top is because NATO is trying to play the plausible deniability game. Pretty much the same tactics Russia used for 2014 invasion. They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny.

But nobody is denying or hiding the weapons they are giving Ukraine, so what's your point? The mig thing I weakly suspect got blown up because they did want to deny giving Ukraine those planes.
The US is also giving Ukraine free drones.
[/QUOTE]

The UK also gave Ukraine 3, 615 free anti-tank weapons earlier this month: https://metro.co.uk/2022/03/09/uk-p...apons-as-soldiers-in-kyiv-get-ready-16246348/

Video of Ukrainian soldier thanking the queen for her gift:



Footage of Russians being forced to flee tank after it is ambushed from multiple directions:

 

[bob012345]

When I saw the 900K Ukrainian soldiers number earlier, I did previously see a number like that but not in that context. It was listed as the total number of Ukrainian reserves on this Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Thanks, that's probably what he meant. Reservists are already trained. Not to mention president Zelensky's general mobilization of all males between 18 and 60 is a lot more potential fighters.

 

[Astronuc]

Ex-separatist leader calls Russian attack on Ukraine a mistake​

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-separatist-leader-calls-russian-135308442.html

LONDON (Reuters) - One of the architects of the Moscow-backed separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine eight years ago said Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a mistake, in comments that show the Kremlin cannot count on support from all pro-Russian opponents of Kyiv.

Alexei Alexandrov was one of the leaders of a movement in 2014 to reject Kyiv's rule and create an autonomous pro-Moscow territory in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, triggering a war against Ukrainian government forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia attacked Ukraine last month in part to protect the separatist territory from Kyiv, though Western states say that is a pretext for an unprovoked land grab.

In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Alexandrov said: "All this could have been resolved earlier, mainly through diplomatic means and perhaps an insignificant use of force. But that was not done, and that is a mistake on all sides."

He said that because Moscow failed to negotiate a settlement with Kyiv guaranteeing autonomy for the Donbas and rights for its residents, by the start of this year armed conflict became unavoidable.

 

[artis]

Ex-separatist leader calls Russian attack on Ukraine a mistake​

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-separatist-leader-calls-russian-135308442.html

Well he may think so but I think Putin had other plans in mind than just negotiating peace and autonomy for a small part of Ukraine. Either he is lying or he fails to understand the grandness of Moscow's plans.

 

[DennisN]

Ukrainian peace negotiators hit by suspected poisoning (Reuters, March 28, 2022)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/

March 28 (Reuters) - Sanctioned Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian peace negotiators suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning earlier this month after a meeting in Kyiv, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

[...]

 

[pinball1970]

Ex-separatist leader calls Russian attack on Ukraine a mistake​

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-separatist-leader-calls-russian-135308442.html

Brave man, Russians speaking out publicly about Putin/ Putin's policies have a habit of dying in suspicious circumstances.

 

[artis]

Brave man, Russians speaking out publicly about Putin/ Putin's policies have a habit of dying in suspicious circumstances.

The ones that got shot were rather typical I'd say. It's the radioactive poisoning that really gives it away.

 

[Astronuc]

The ones that got shot were rather typical I'd say. It's the radioactive poisoning that really gives it away.

Yes, ingestion of Po-210 is rather unique.

They really did a number on Litvinenko (2006)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00144-6/fulltext

 

[pinball1970]

The ones that got shot were rather typical I'd say. It's the radioactive poisoning that really gives it away.

Yes plus Novichok on British soil all denied of course. Described as the 'soft war' Putin was waging. Now it is the real stuff.

End game now? North and South Ukraine?

 

[artis]

End game now? North and South Ukraine?

I'm afraid there will be more surprises before that scenario or any other finally plays out.

This is of course speculation but some say including Ukrainians that Putin, Shoigu etc are away in their Ural mountain rage secret bunkers or so and that is because Putin has factored in a nuclear strike and possible retaliation just in case. Who knows.

I personally think as I said in my recent post about the Russian nuclear briefcases that given there is no direct attack from the west and Putin decides to use nukes on Ukraine his chain of command will fail to exercise that. And he himself is afraid somewhat to make such a call unprovoked because he understands that if his subordinates refuse his order his legitimacy is shattered

Putin is only as powerful as the people who back him, without them he becomes an angry grandpa

I also read that there is a non negligible portion of people within the security services that have been angered by him because, part of the reason why this war is failing for them is because of the endless layers of corruption that Putin has allowed and benefited over the years.

US intelligence seems to have known this war further in advance than some in the Kremlin, and this comes from a country which managed to copy the A bomb and countless other secrets. I think it says a lot about the current state of affairs in Moscow

 

[Bandersnatch]

Ukrainian peace negotiators hit by suspected poisoning (Reuters, March 28, 2022)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/

same source:

Ukrainian officials poured cold water on the report. Asked about the suspected poisoning, Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said "there is a lot of speculation, various conspiracy theories". Rustem Umerov, another member of the negotiating team, urged people not to trust "unverified information".

Also, it's about a meeting from four weeks ago.

 

[bob012345]

North and South Ukraine?

I'm sure many diplomats would love that compromise but it would be a total win for Putin regardless of how one spins it.

A better solution is a united Ukraine with the separatist regions peacefuly politically accommodated back into the fold. The greatest coup d'etat would be if Zelenskyy can win them over into his government somehow. Convince them that life as free Russians in Ukraine is better than life in Putin's Russia.

 

[Rive]

Putin's Russia

That has no value as a guarantor of any kind of treaty there

 

[artis]

I'm sure many diplomats would love that compromise but it would be a total win for Putin regardless of how one spins it.

A better solution is a united Ukraine with the separatist regions peacefuly politically accommodated back into the fold. The greatest coup d'etat would be if Zelenskyy can win them over into his government somehow. Convince them that life as free Russians in Ukraine is better than life in Putin's Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ay-hold-referendum-joining-russia-2022-03-27/

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-separatists-referendum-join-russia/31773083.html

Russia is becoming funny , they wage a guerilla war, then they start an all out invasion and then they plan to hold a vote to "join Russia" ...
Maybe they anticipate that everyone in Donbas will succumb to the "Stockholm syndrome"

 

[DennisN]

same source: [Ukrainian officials poured cold water on the report.] [...]

Thanks for pointing that out. Somehow I didn't pick that up when I read the article.

Also, it's about a meeting from four weeks ago.

I got that.

 

[artis]

This one has a good map

 

[DennisN]

A very fascinating CNN interview today with former Russian parliament member Ilya Ponomarev who is fighting in Ukraine for Ukraine. Among other things he mentions that there are other Russians fighting for Ukraine (and with that fighting for Russia against Putin).

He also talks about that Putin don't like a democracy like Ukraine as a neighboring counterexample to Russia (much like Fiona Hill has talked about before, which has been mentioned way back in this thread as a possible deeper reason to why Putin invaded Ukraine).

“We think that the key to freedom in Russia right now is in Ukraine,” says former Russian parliament member (at)iponomarev, who is fighting for Ukraine. “If we are victorious here, if we will defeat Putin here, we will win Russia.”

I tried to find the interview on youtube but it isn't up yet, so here it is on Christiane Amanpour's Twitter:

 

[neilparker62]

So there's this very articulate and - I would say - impassioned view from Russia.

(if you did not already view).

And I guess the "other side" which I have the notion user kaiatiuw was attempting to express. Before scrubbing his / her own post as well as his / her own profile ?? Unfortunate I thought because we need to try and assess that thinking.

 

[artis]

Before scrubbing his / her own post as well as his / her own profile ??

I think he got banned, not sure whether PF even has an option to delete your profile

 

[neilparker62]

I think he got banned, not sure whether PF even has an option to delete your profile

Not a good idea but that's just IMHO of course!

 

[bob012345]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ay-hold-referendum-joining-russia-2022-03-27/

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-separatists-referendum-join-russia/31773083.html

Russia is becoming funny , they wage a guerilla war, then they start an all out invasion and then they plan to hold a vote to "join Russia" ...
Maybe they anticipate that everyone in Donbas will succumb to the "Stockholm syndrome"

I was not suggesting it would be an easy sell but the separatists surely see the way Russia treats their fellow Ukrainians is the same way they would be treated if they expressed too much independence from Moscow.

 

[Rive]

Russia wants to remain independent.

They was independent, to the level that a Putin-like character could got the throne there. Then some poisonings, some little wars in the neighborhood, flooding the internet with trolls, feeding some far right or simply just destructive political forces around the word- and more stuff like that. Yet, it was all just tolerated, nothing more serious happened than some ramblings.

Yeah, quite upside down indeed.

 

[Oldman too]

Yes and from what I recall reading in the Russian sites back when it happened is that many in Moscow were rather angry about their supported guys blatant mistake. There was some fury going on. Sure enough Moscow did not admit guilt publicly but it definitely wasn't in their intentions back then to escalate this needlessly that I am sure of. I think what happened is they supplied weapons including the Buk to the separatists but not all of them are/were well trained Russian army members. Some were some were not and they just "locked in" the wrong target. I don't want to make this sound apologetic, it was a war crime but the reality is it was a war crime made by a stupid mistake because people who did not have enough experience operating a complex weapons system aimed at the wrong target.

This is unlike the historical KAL 007 incident back in 1983 where the Boeing was shot down intentionally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

I think everybody realizes that it has lost all meaning. Why? Well because EU and US did pretty much nothing back in 2014 when this started.
Anyway you do know what it would mean if they upheld that memorandum part , they would have to have a direct war with Russia either way. It just seems to me nobody wants that, not even now.

Hi Artis,
Well, this is a TIL day. Thanks, I've never heard the name before.
From:: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin I notice the FSB connection, associated with any other "high profile" former alumni of that institution?
Interesting presentation on this site also, https://www.spisok-putina.org/en/personas/strelkov-girkin/
Nice connection with my citing the BUK. I prefer associating that name with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_(novel) Mass murder, that's something else entirely.

Some cherry picked highlights.
"He has also been dubbed Igor Groznyy ("Igor the Terrible")." In the back of my mind I keep hearing, "Vlad the impaler"
"Multiple sources cited a post on the VKontakte social networking service that was made by an account under Girkin's name which acknowledged shooting down an aircraft at approximately the same time that the civilian airliner Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) was reported to have crashed in eastern Ukraine in the same area near the Russian border on 17 July 2014.The post specifically referenced how warnings were issued for planes not to fly in their airspace."
"Girkin was reported to be the author of an alternative version of the incident, wherein "no living people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with 'rotting corpses'." This conspiracy theory was then distributed and discussed in Russian state-controlled media outlets." ... There goes that Alternative version, Conspiracy mind set again.

Jeez! This guy is depressing, it's too bad that there are people in the world who idolize his mind set.This is unlike the historical KAL 007 incident back in 1983 where the Boeing was shot down intentionally.
I recall that event, what a political mess.

About the Budapest Memorandum, I understand the ramifications of "enforcement" concerning that. I do wonder why such "agreements" are ever reached or even considered if they have no teeth. Surely Putin realizes this and is acting accordingly (in his mind anyway).

"he is lying or he fails to understand the grandness of Moscow's plans." Hope I don't screw up the context there but that looks like an even split.
Thanks for the history tour, Scott

 

[berkeman]

Thread closed temporarily for Moderation and cleanup...

 

[berkeman]

Cleanup on aisle 5 completed, and I need to go take a shower. PM me if I missed any of the now-thread-banned member's posts that violate PF rules. Thanks.

 

[neilparker62]

Most of the replies seem to be looking at the situation upside down.
The US wants "regime change" in Russia, i.e. wants a regime in Russia that takes orders from the USA, just like western Europe.

Ostensibly Mr Putin (granted it's for Russians and only Russians to decide whether he necessarily speaks for them ) said that he was invading Ukraine because of the eastward expansion of NATO. At least one senior Russian officer advised NATO was not a threat to Russia and invading Ukraine would achieve nothing except earn the undying hatred of Ukranians. It would also be useful to know exactly why the President saw fit to dress down his own spy chief - was there a particular point at issue (in relation to Ukraine) or was this just a display of power politics ?

Mr Putin went ahead with his plans all the same. Actually his real reasons seemed to be a lot less worthy of the President of the Russian Federation. He claimed he wanted to "de-Nazify" Ukraine despite the latter having a Jewish president whose grandfather fought in the Red Army . He claimed there was a genocide of Russians in Eastern Ukraine. Well he had previously invaded Crimea and then invaded Ukraine itself. So on both counts if Ukraine fights back does that then constitute "genocide" of ethnic Russians ?

Mr Putin also claimed that Ukraine was not a country in its own right and was actually a creation of the Soviet Union. I can't claim to know the history well enough here but suffice to say this is now way off tangent in respect of the NATO "bogeyman". Most perplexing is how on the one hand one can claim that Ukraine is "an integral part of our history , culture and spiritual space" and on the other seek to obliterate that very same "history, culture and spiritual space". All the more so in light of Ukranians having fought alongside their Russian brothers in the Red Army.

In short Russian and Ukraine should not be at war. They should rather be working out how to set up a binary star system which will work to the best advantage of both as well as to the European continent generally. If you will forgive me waxing eloquent! As for the US I can do no better than point to the following article which I hope will provide a reasonably balanced picture of the role of NATO in the post Cold War era.

 

[Oldman too]

I hope will provide a reasonably balanced picture of the role of NATO in the post Cold War era.

Wow, that's what I call comprehensive. Thanks.

 

[DaveE]

Cleanup on aisle 5 completed, and I need to go take a shower. PM me if I missed any of the now-thread-banned member's posts that violate PF rules. Thanks.

Thanks for doing the dirty work. Better you than me, LOL.

 

[wrobel]

Putin is paranoid and doesn't live in reality.

Even Hitler wouldn't dare try Switzerland, even though he wanted it. The Swiss aren't worried about anyone. They have plenty of old bunkers, secret air bases hidden in the Alps, and will make it impossible for anyone to invade by land if they begin to try- by blowing up all the entrances into the country. It would be the hardest country on Earth to take.

my replica was addressed to the post that has seemed to be deleted.