Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

Could an EU country unilaterally choose to lift sanctions?

Good question. I think, theoretically yes, de facto no. E.g. IIRC then Hungary hasn't imposed all sanctions.

 

[DennisN]

A very interesting interview today with ex-Russian official Vladimir Milov about what hears from other officials in Russia. He also says that he thinks Putin is currently living inside a bubble of his own making.

Ex-Russian official says Putin's days are numbered (CNN, Apr 2, 2022)
Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister and now an adviser to opposition leader Alexy Navalny, argues that Putin's days in office are numbered because of the backlash to his invasion of Ukraine.

 

[PeroK]

Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister and now an adviser to opposition leader Alexy Navalny, argues that Putin's days in office are numbered because of the backlash to his invasion of Ukraine.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[DennisN]

I'll believe it when I see it.

I agree. We'll see.

 

[256bits]

that we have to build an LNG terminal?

And those just don't pop-up overnight.
Generally 10 years in the planning.

 

[wrobel]

All people are connected with each other just by unity of the humankind. I dislike mutual blames. The responsibility is collective as usual. Everybody pays debts of everybody independently on whether he wants it or not. Russian society has not managed to stop elevation of this dictatorship and the war. Western Europe and USA have welcomed Putin's oligarchs and their stolen money till the last events. It is time to pay the bills.

 

[Office_Shredder]

And those just don't pop-up overnight.
Generally 10 years in the planning.

This isn't a physical limitation, it's mostly because of bureaucratic slowness and not willing to spend too much money planning/parallelizng work.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Azul_LNG

Took 4 years from contract signed to actual production open, and this was building the full port from scratch, including ecological assessment and remedy. If, say, Russia cut off gas imports today and half of Germany was going to freeze to death next winter, I bet something could be built in the next six months to help with the situation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badak_NGL

Construction of the refinery began on November 26, 1974, and was completed 36 months later on July 5, 1977, with the construction of the first LNG train (train A). The first refinery was inaugurated on August 1, 1977, and the first shipment of LNG was carried out on August 9, 1977, to

3 years start to finish.

 

[BillTre]

Shooting himself in the foot.

Guess you mean in the other foot, however, I am losing count of how many of his feet he has shot by now.

 

[neilparker62]

All people are connected with each other just by unity of the humankind. I dislike mutual blames. The responsibility is collective as usual. Everybody pays debts of everybody independently on whether he wants it or not. Russian society has not managed to stop elevation of this dictatorship and the war. Western Europe and USA have welcomed Putin's oligarchs and their stolen money till the last events. It is time to pay the bills.

to the above.

Re blame game - all agree it seems although blame is an inevitable part of the diplomatic 'game'! Perhaps we could focus attention on the difficult question of trying to envisage (at least in our own minds) how this conflict could conceivably be resolved - as speedily as possible? After all the thread topic is "Really worried about Ukraine" and so we should be!

 

[geordief]

to the above.

Re blame game - all agree it seems although blame is an inevitable part of the diplomatic 'game'! Perhaps we could focus attention on the difficult question of trying to envisage (at least in our own minds) how this conflict could conceivably be resolved - as speedily as possible? After all the thread topic is "Really worried about Ukraine" and so we should be!

As much pressure on Russia as possible ? To force them to come to the negotiating table and to leave their poison potions behind this time.

 

[DennisN]

Perhaps we could focus attention on the difficult question of trying to envisage (at least in our own minds) how this conflict could conceivably be resolved - as speedily as possible? After all the thread topic is "Really worried about Ukraine" and so we should be!

I think the West is basically on the right track.
I'm also quite certain there a various things going on we don't know about, and shouldn't know about. I won't be specific.

With Putin's regime (right now), I think it is very, very important to show strength, decisiveness, unity and perserverance up to the limit of not going to war.

With this in mind, put as much pressure as possible on the regime, on all possible fronts.

Financial offensives (continued sanctions of course, and possibly new) and persistently hunt down and strangle every possible bit of finance that can be used to support the regime. The holy grail here is this: If we could severely lessen Putin's income from oil and gas we will deal a really, really big blow to his economy.

Information campaigns (truth) and psychological operations (cleverly formulated truths) targeted at both Putin's henchmen and the Russian people.

Find and cultivate more allies in the world (that is, more than the countries currently having sanctions put in place) through diplomatic means. I'm thinking of India for example, which is sitting sort of on the fence (for various reasons).

Support Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid as much as possible (and as much as is needed).
At the moment, I don't think there should be any restraint on providing weapons of any conventional kind, at least that's my opinion (because I think it is extremely important to stop Putin in Ukraine, not just because of what he's done, but what he possibly could do in the near future). And, after all, the Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves and their country according to international law.

There are probably more things that could be done which I can't think of at the moment (I'm a little tired).

 

[Frabjous]

An interesting sentence from The Economist (26 March)
”Belarusian rail workers have reportedly sabotaged rail links with Ukraine to stop supplies from reaching the invaders.”

 

[phinds]

An interesting sentence from The Economist (26 March)
”Belarusian rail workers have reportedly sabotaged rail links with Ukraine to stop supplies from reaching the invaders.”

Belarusian special forces have reportedly started guard duties along key railways into Ukraine following successful acts of sabotage by railway workers in recent days. Patrols are allegedly underway in the Gomel and Brest region’s in the Belarusian border areas with Ukraine.

https://www.railtech.com/infrastruc...ding-railways-following-sabotage/?gdpr=accept

 

[DennisN]

According to Wikipedia:

The Battle of Kyiv (2022) is over.
Result: Ukrainian victory.

The Kyiv offensive (2022) is over.
Result: Major Ukrainian victory.

Ukrainian forces regain control of the entirety of Kyiv Oblast.

Let's continue to help them defend their country and their people and hopefully regain as much lost territority as possible!

 

[Frabjous]

According to Wikipedia:

The Battle of Kyiv (2022) is over.
Result: Ukrainian victory.

The Kyiv offensive (2022) is over.
Result: Major Ukrainian victory.

While not trying to be pro-Russian/anti-Ukranian, I do not believe Wikipedia can make these determinations. While it might turn out to be true, we do not know what is going to happen tomorrow (literally). These things are determined after a suitable amount of time has past. News should not be confused with history.

 

[DennisN]

News should not be confused with history.

Of course. And I didn't say it was history. But the result is obviously the (preliminary) conclusion, with sources present on the Wiki pages ("Ukrainian victory[1][2][3][4][5][6]"). Also, of course there could come a second Kyiv offensive and second Kyiv battle, but according to the sources I follow, this does not seem likely to happen soon at least.

I've also checked with e.g. the EuroMaidan Press:

Russo-Ukrainian war, day 38: Ukraine recaptures large swathes of terrain near Kyiv as Russia focuses on Ukraine’s east (EuroMaidan Press, 2022/04/02)
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/02/russo-ukrainian-war-latest-news-april-2/

 

[Office_Shredder]

While not trying to be pro-Russian/anti-Ukranian, I do not believe Wikipedia can make these determinations. While it might turn out to be true, we do not know what is going to happen tomorrow (literally). These things are determined after a suitable amount of time has past. News should not be confused with history.

I don't agree with this. I mean, Wikipedia does not get to make the determination of whether Ukraine won, but Ukraine and Russia do. All the evidence points to Ukraine winning this. If Russia comes back and takes Kyiv later, that would be a different battle.

How long after d-day do you think Wikipedia should wait to call it a successful beach landing?

 

[Frabjous]

I don't agree with this. I mean, Wikipedia does not get to make the determination of whether Ukraine won, but Ukraine and Russia do. All the evidence points to Ukraine winning this. If Russia comes back and takes Kyiv later, that would be a different battle.

How long after d-day do you think Wikipedia should wait to call it a successful beach landing?

I am not arguing with the facts, just the characterization.

So if in a couple of days the Russians turn around, are we going to be talking about the Second Battle of Kyiv and the Second Kyiv Campaign. I doubt it.

I would argue that “D-Day” “ended” when the Allies broke out. If in late June, early July the Germans had launched a counter offensive which forced Allied retreat, we would refer to it as a single action (the failed Operation Overlord).

 

[Vanadium 50]

I do not believe Wikipedia can make these determinations. While it might turn out to be true

In that case, there would be a First and Second Battles of Kiev. Like the Second Battle of Bull Run.

 

[Frabjous]

In that case, there would be a First and Second Battles of Kiev. Like the Second Battle of Bull Run.

The first battle was in July 1861. The second was in August 1862.

 

[strangerep]

[...] It is time to pay the bills.

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

 

[Frabjous]

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

I am waiting for Ukraine to sue for the Russian funds ($300B) frozen in Western banks.

 

[wrobel]

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

I do not know an exact amount. And yes for Russia it will be a bill to pay and it must be paid.

 

[PeroK]

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

Or how many civilians killed or seriously injured.

 

[phinds]

I do not know an exact amount. And yes for Russia it will be a bill to pay and it must be paid.

And what enforcement mechanism do you imagine to make your "must" actually happen?

 

[Astronuc]

Evidence of war crimes in the village of Bucha near Kyiv have been reported by BBC and Reuters. Dead bodies of civilians have been found in streets, including one man with his hands tied. At least 20 people were shot in the back of the head. The town has buried nearly 300 persons.

 

[wrobel]

And what enforcement mechanism do you imagine to make your "must" actually happen?

I hope that Russia will go by German way.

By the way the property and money of the oligarchs in USA and EU can be given to Ukraine right now.

 

[BWV]

Evidence of war crimes in the village of Bucha near Kyiv have been reported by BBC and Reuters. Dead bodies of civilians have been found in streets, including one man with his hands tied. At least 20 people were shot in the back of the head. The town has buried nearly 300 persons.

A flood of reports of rapes and murders by Russian troops now, reminiscent of the atrocities in the Yugoslav civil war.

 

[phinds]

I hope that Russia will go by German way.

STAGGERING optimism.

 

[phinds]

By the way the property and money of the oligarchs in USA and EU can be given to Ukraine right now.

Doubtful. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them to give to someone else is a whole 'nother can of worms.

 

[Astronuc]

Doubtful. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them to give to someone else is a whole 'nother can of worms.

I would expect that there is a legal channel for confiscating the funds of the Russian government, but not private individuals, unless it can be determined that the private individuals acquired the funds by illicit means. Even so, even a legal procedure would be difficult.

 

[PeroK]

Doubtful. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them to give to someone else is a whole 'nother can of worms.

I don't think that's what @wrobel meant.

 

[PeroK]

I would expect that there is a legal channel for confiscating the funds of the Russian government, but not private individuals, unless it can be determined that the private individuals acquired the funds by illicit means. Even so, even a legal procedure would be difficult.

The UK government has sanctioned 7 "oligarchs":

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...archs-targeted-in-estimated-15bn-sanction-hit

 

[phinds]

I don't think that's what @wrobel meant.

I don't see how else to interpret his statement. How do you interpret it?

 

[PeroK]

I don't see how else to interpret his statement. How do you interpret it?

That in a righteous world that's where their fortunes would go.