Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[BillTre]

I actually think that people might be more stupid and less educated now than they were in the past.

Over longer time scales, the human brain has evolved to smaller sizes (by ~10%), since the ice age.
This has been attributed to several things:

• brains use a lot of energy (~25% of body energy use), so smaller brains use less energy, which can be adaptive
• "self-domestication": domesticated animals have smaller brains, presumably due to less requirement for thinking in a human curated environment.
• "off-loading" of memory/thought processes to social structures

Its a long term evolutionary trend.

 

[artis]

This is a short but really good video , a message from a US veteran Andrew Milburn, helping in Ukraine now

 

[Astronuc]

On 7 April 2014, following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, Russian-backed militants occupying the Donetsk Oblast administrative building declared independence from Ukraine and staged an unrecognized referendum on separating from Ukraine on 11 May 2014. Subsequently, the war in Donbas started. After Donetsk fell to the insurgents, the Donetsk Oblast administration was relocated to Mariupol and later to Kramatorsk.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast

Kramatorsk is near the center of Donetsk, and area that Putin seeks to completely control. From Luhansk, to the east, and Donetsk, Russia military could launch missiles and artillery into the rest of Ukraine, or the military could simply regroup, reinforce and resupply for further offensives in the future. A prolonged war seems to be inevitable, and it would seem an escalation at some point is likely. Apparently, Putin would like to take control of the entire coast line of Ukraine, all the way passed Odessa, which would leave Ukraine landlocked and deprive Ukraine of independent international trade except through the European states on its western border.

Together, Ukraine and Russia ship ~30% of wheat to the global market.

Russia and Ukraine collectively accounted for about 30% of global wheat exports and 20% of maize exports over the last three years, the organization said, with conflict-related export disruptions in both countries prompting a surge in global prices of wheat and coarse grain. The FAO Cereal Price Index was 17.1% higher in March than it was in February.

"The expected loss of exports from the Black Sea region exacerbated the already tight global availability of wheat," the organization added. "With concerns over crop conditions in the United States of America also adding support, world wheat prices rose sharply in March, soaring by 19.7 percent.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/08/1091705608/global-food-prices-record-high-ukraine-war

Mariupol is in Donetsk.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/23/1088113318/what-mariupol-means-ukraine-russia-military-campaign

By controlling Mariupol, Russia could potentially create a land bridge to Crimea and control the entire north shore of the Sea of Azov.
. . .

If Russia effectively cuts off Mariupol for the long term, and with it access to the Sea of Azov, it will damage Ukraine's finances and economic sustainability, hindering the country's ability to sell and ship its products.

"It's part of a broader effort to effectively cut Ukraine off from access to the sea, which is a really important part of Ukrainian economy and trade," Konaev says.

Edit/update: I was listening to a news report about Russian forces regrouping/reinforcing/rearming in Belarus and Russia for a large offensive in the east, ostensibly to take control of all of Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts), but it could also mean Kharkiv.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Oblast

The presumably, a prolonged campaign to depopulate and take control of Ukraine east of Dnipro River, while seeking to undermine the western part of Ukraine, Moldova (Transnistra), Romania, Slovakia and Poland. It seems Putin already has an ally in Hungary, which can be used to undermine neighboring states.

 

[artis]

It's interesting, Russians have an elite military group called "The Wagner group" , Ukrainians now have "The Mozart group"

Starts to sound like they will face each other in Ukraine's east with violins and cellos...

 

[artis]

Just another video from a Russian town from which a soldier has died, but listen to the opinions expressed in the end of the video, I once thought they can't be representative of the larger views held by Russians but talking more to people in reality seems to confirm they indeed are.

 

[Astronuc]

Just another video from a Russian town from which a soldier has died, but listen to the opinions expressed in the end of the video, I once thought they can't be representative of the larger views held by Russians but talking more to people in reality seems to confirm they indeed are.

What I don't hear in such interviews is the question to the Russian individuals, "What did Ukraine do to Russia, or you personally, to warrant an invasion?", or "How were you personally affected by Ukraine before the war?". Either they reflect on the fact that they weren't really, they have to make up something, or repeat some Putin propaganda.

 

[Astronuc]

Why a ceasefire would be a mistake.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/04/ensuring-ukraine-prevails-now-only-moral-choice

Some other insightful articles

March 17 - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/negotiated-peace-russia-fraught-danger

March 18 - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/cost-ceding-advantage-russia-far-reaching

Three weeks later, they still apply, and will continue to do so.

 

[artis]

What I don't hear in such interviews is the question to the Russian individuals, "What did Ukraine do to Russia, or you personally, to warrant an invasion?", or "How were you personally affected by Ukraine before the war?". Either they reflect on the fact that they weren't really, they have to make up something, or repeat some Putin propaganda.

The ones who strongly support Putin even up to now don't really go down that "intellectual rabbit hole"
For them that question is meaningless because they only see US as aggressor and NATO as threat, and in the absence of those "threats" they would more than happily once again come live in neighboring countries with the added bonus of their puppet government controlling them against the wishes of the locals.

It is a combination of ill informed patriotism together with rudeness and with the added brainwashing cheery on top.

 

[neilparker62]

So here's a thought I had. Could not a group/groups of prominent Russians (oligarchs and/or political exiles such as GK ?) and Ukrainians convene their own conference (on neutral territory if needs be) and try to chart - at least in principle - a way forward out of this mess ? Theme for the conference: "Blueprint for the permanent stabilisation of the European continent" if that does not sound too lofty an ideal (pipe dream perhaps ?).

 

[Astronuc]

So here's a thought I had. Could not a group/groups of prominent Russians (oligarchs and/or political exiles such as GK ?) and Ukrainians convene their own conference (on neutral territory if needs be) and try to chart - at least in principle - a way forward out of this mess ? Theme for the conference: "Blueprint for the permanent stabilisation of the European continent" if that does not sound too lofty an ideal (pipe dream perhaps ?).

In theory, that would be possible, but unlikely. What would Russia give up? Would Russia keep what has been taken? Would Russian military withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, and compensate Ukraine for the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure? What about the dead civilians or the survivors whose homes have been destroyed and whose loved ones have been murdered? What about Putin? What about further aggression? What about US/UK/EU sanctions?

It would not matter much if the group of Russians didn't have Putin's approval.

 

[neilparker62]

In theory, that would be possible, but unlikely. What would Russia give up? Would Russia keep what has been taken? Would Russian military withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, and compensate Ukraine for the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure? What about the dead civilians or the survivors whose homes have been destroyed and whose loved ones have been murdered? What about Putin? What about further aggression? What about US/UK/EU sanctions?

It would not matter much if the group of Russians didn't have Putin's approval.

I would say very simply that at some point all of the above will have to be discussed!

 

[bob012345]

So here's a thought I had. Could not a group/groups of prominent Russians (oligarchs and/or political exiles such as GK ?) and Ukrainians convene their own conference (on neutral territory if needs be) and try to chart - at least in principle - a way forward out of this mess ? Theme for the conference: "Blueprint for the permanent stabilisation of the European continent" if that does not sound too lofty an ideal (pipe dream perhaps ?).

Why should the Ukrainians compromise their freedom and independence to satisfy Russia's aggression? It is immoral to even ask them to in my opinion. No, the only Blueprint for the permanent stabilisation of the European continent is the to stop Russian aggression.

 

[Isopod]

Although you won't find much links to cite about this, but I talked with a man who himself had been in the service of the Soviet army, I asked him how can it be that the Russian soldiers (many of them) are not just fighting in Ukraine but basically acting like pure brainless pigs? They are looting, raping women , trashing without reasons etc, none of which are direct military orders, nor they help their advancement in any way.

He basically said what I have read elsewhere, that in the Russian conscript force there are a lot of lads from the far east of Russia, in other words those conscripts come from rural poor places with little if any education, poor backgrounds both physically and mentally and with very little knowledge about the world.
Others who have served in the Soviet army have said the same as some of them were stationed together with folks like them.

I would speculate that Russians have better formed units that are more trained and then worse ones, the ones that are worse are probably much larger in numbers therefore they seemed to be the ones that got sent in first.

Given the average conscript soldier is about 20, he had a smart phone back in home and a internet access , given the popularity of all kinds of vloggers and stories about Chernobyl (both in English as well as Russian) I find it hard to believe that the conscripts from the more educated and civilized parts of Russia (mostly west) would have been so totally blind to what Chernobyl is or the dangers of it. Chernobyl is one of the most recognizable places of the planet.Seems like even during the USSR times there was more humanity in the commanders , the conscripts that were sent to Chernobyl worst areas, like the cleaning of the reactor3 roof were given 2 minutes and then they were laid off.
It is a sad picture overall of what Russia has become. The sins of their fathers who murdered their own countrymen for a communistic future are coming back to haunt them it seems.
China once learned from the USSR about how planned economy is a dead end, I wonder whether they would learn from Russia now how senseless violence and bloodshed is a dead end...

Nah, I don't buy that.

The Russian army is behaving as it has always done. Just look at this Russian veteran recounting the horrors he saw the Russian army commit towards German girls & women towards the end of WW2 (warning: very disturbing accounts, not for the faint of heart):

‘The Russian soldiers raped every German female from eight to 80’​

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/may/01/news.features11

More accounts & photographic evidence of the rape of Berlin, "How German Women suffered the largest Mass Rape in History": https://english.alarabiya.net/features/2018/03/11/PICTURES-The-largest-mass-rape-in-history

"The rape of Berlin"​

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32529679

"The Soviet army raped over two million German women. Over 240,000 women died because of rapes. Many of them committed suicide or died from venereal diseases"



So, historically speaking, the Russian armies behaviour in Ukraine right now? Same old army that its always been (nothing new going on).

The commanders of the Red Army not only did virtually nothing to prevent their troops from raping women and children back in WW2, but proactively encouraged them to do it (it was systematic) because organising it was seen as both a means to keep their troops under control and was used a weapon of terror & revenge in itself unto the "enemy".

So I don't buy this whole "The Russian army is full of aggressive & uneducated teenage country bumpkins (and that's why they're behaving this way)" rhetoric to explain recent reports of the armies behaviour in Ukraine. For starters, this could be applied to just about every army in the world (full of young men from the boonies) but also, we only think things are different now because we have historically never been that well educated about our own past. This is partly because of the old "History is written by the victors" stuff, but also because of the social stigma attached to rape & the general problems of reporting it during war. There are also often elements of racism, colonialism & other politics going on in the reporting wartime rape (its not "us" who rape, but other nations who do so) and so while we get taught a lot about things like like The Rape of Nanking and rape during the Rwandan Genocide, we are not taught so much about things like The Rape of Berlin.

-------

After spending years in POW camps during WW2, my grandfather became utterly convinced that there was something fundamentally messed up about the German people because of the utter sadism that he 1st hand witnessed being committed by the camp guards towards the prisoners and because of accounts of Germans behaviour that he heard taking place throughout Europe back then. Even on his deathbed, he still could not forgive the German people for what they did in WW2 and although he traveled the world (and visited endless countries during his retirement years), the one country he utterly refused to ever set foot on was Germany.

Personally, I do not believe that there's anything particularly fundamentally messed up about the German people, nor any other nation for that matter which got a reputation at points for utter depravity during wartime years (for example the Japanese). Instead, I believe that there is a darkness that lurks in just about every one of us and even worse, that it doesn't take a whole lot to bring it out.

A classic example of relatively minimal conditions bringing out the worst in people, would be the infamous Stanford Prison Experiment. Here's a little lowdown for those who don't know:



They even made a movie about the experiment back in 2015:



Anyhow...

Re: The Chernobyl ignorance stuff, I can kind of believe it.

For example, Chernobyl? Yeah, loads of people know about that.
But the Red Forest? Less so.
And who knows the exact perimeters of the Red Forest? Even less.
What about the fact that the Red Forest is dead- could they have not discerned it from all the dead trees? Well they were fighting in what was basically still the Winter and trees haven't come into bloom yet, to the untrained eye it can be hard to tell a dead tree from one that's still just asleep from the Winter.

Also (lets face it), we've seen the Russian commanders treat their ground troops as very disposable. Many the troops were aware that they were going into Chernobyl, but they probably assumed that the commanders weren't going to take them through any dangerous parts of it. And there are some "safer" zones in the Chernobyl exclusion zone where some people do live (for example "The people who moved to Chernobyl" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/moving_to_Chernobyl ) and this combined the abundance of wildlife (boar, wolves, feral ponies etc) that lives in the contaminated zone, it might not have been immediately obvious to the casual observer how radioactive the site actually was (one of those "Expectations VS Reality" perception issues). It is also entirely possible that neither the commanders nor the army were aware that digging into the Red Forests turf was going to create such a difference in radiation levels.

I think that during times of shocking cruelty & depravity during war, we tend to seek to distance ourselves from these things whilst simultaneously try to understand them by viewing such events as something not committed by our own kind (or people relatable to our kind), but instead as actions committed by the "other" (in this case, some vague bandings of young & uneducated recruits who come from parts of Russia so isolated, that they're practically foreign to even a lot of Russians). But endless experiments and events (both in and outside of warzones) beg to differ; almost anyone can behave with utter depravity when the environment changes from peacetime to wartime and people are wrapped up in group thinking dynamics (etc).

 

[neilparker62]

An unimaginable nightmare. Well I think we are at some kind of crossroads with respect to the "advanced civilization" posts in this thread. Either we overcome the nightmare or we fail as an "advanced civilization."

 

[neilparker62]

Why should the Ukrainians compromise their freedom and independence to satisfy Russia's aggression? It is immoral to even ask them to in my opinion. No, the only Blueprint for the permanent stabilisation of the European continent is the to stop Russian aggression.

I think the question of whether to engage or not in negotiations of some form or another will be for Ukranians to decide. I don't think it's immoral to put ideas on the table - not at all. President Zelensky himself has not ruled out the possibility.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1258728.shtml

 

[bob012345]

I think the question of whether to engage or not in negotiations of some form or another will be for Ukrainians to decide. I don't think it's immoral to put ideas on the table - not at all. President Zelensky himself has not ruled out the possibility.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1258728.shtml

Maybe he will negotiate the surrender of Russian forces in Ukraine.

 

[phinds]

I think the question of whether to engage or not in negotiations of some form or another will be for Ukranians to decide. I don't think it's immoral to put ideas on the table - not at all. President Zelensky himself has not ruled out the possibility.

And do you seriously think that Putin is interested in any kind of negotiations? Zelensky would be doing what in the military is called pissing up a rope.

 

[neilparker62]

And do you seriously think that Putin is interested in any kind of negotiations? Zelensky would be doing what in the military is called pissing up a rope.

I can only quote what Zelensky himself has said:

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that talks between Ukraine and Russia will continue despite the evidence of "atrocities carried out by the Russian military," the Ukrinform news agency reported on Wednesday.

"In any case, we must find even small opportunities for the negotiation process. Without this, I think it is difficult to end the war," Zelensky was quoted as saying in an interview with Turkey's Haberturk television channel.

On Putin you are probably right but his teams are going to the table at least. The performance of the Ukrainian military has certainly strengthened their President's bargaining chips!

 

[phinds]

On Putin you are probably right but his teams are going to the table at least. The performance of the Ukrainian military has certainly strengthened their President's bargaining chips!

Teams at tables and bargaining chips are irrelevant if Putin doesn't really want to negotiate. Do you seriously think that he does?

 

[neilparker62]

Teams at tables and bargaining chips are irrelevant if Putin doesn't really want to negotiate. Do you seriously think that he does?

No I don't. We will just have to hope that he's not an entirely one man show in Russia!

 

[phinds]

No I don't. We will just have to hope that he's not an entirely one man show in Russia!

That I can agree with although I think it's a bit optimistic.

 

[Vanadium 50]

But let's also be real here, post-WW2, the US has repeatedly managed to convince its people to start and engage in a huge number of dubious war

Please back that up.

Roughly 10 million people have died in wars post 1946 (vs. 85 million in WW2). Major wars were the partition of India, the Bangladesh Indepedence wars, the Soviet-Afghan war, the Second Congo War, the Second Sudanese Civil War, the Ethiopian Civil War, the Nigerian Civil War,

It's easy to blame the US. But the bloodiest conflicts tend not to have US involvement, andto be in parts of the world nobody cares about. One might even argue that post-war decolonization was the major cause of war deaths post-WW2.

 

[phinds]

parts of the world nobody cares about

Ooohh ... harsh.

I'll bet the people in those regions would not agree w/ you.

 

[strangerep]

Instead, I believe that there is a darkness that lurks in just about every one of us and even worse, that it doesn't take a whole lot to bring it out.

+1 (alas).

 

[Vanadium 50]

I'll bet the people in those regions would not agree w/ you.

I bet they wouldn't. I made the same point about malaria vs. Covid in another thread. Important people get covid, so it's a worldwide crisis. Malaria, not so much.

 

[artis]

Nah, I don't buy that.

I'm not sure what exactly you refuse to buy? You basically argued against something which I did not say.
My claim was not that the Russian army became like this recently. It has always been like that and somewhat for the very reason you dismissed - which is the low education and harsh backgrounds of many of it's conscripts.

To use your own phrases , no not even "country bumpkins" are the same everywhere, yes people do have a capability towards violence but the background in which they grow up matters alot.
I had a friend who grew up in an orphanage , he said himself that he was probably the only guy in his "class" in the orphanage who doesn't commit violence on a daily basis. He even got raped by his very "friends" while in the orphanage.
And yet this is not how I remember my childhood while growing up in a family , nor were my friends violent thugs nor did we rape each other.

So once more I'm not sure what you find so hard to buy in what I said.
The fact that the Soviet army wasn't much better during WW2 is exactly for the very reasons I said.
And then again it wasn't the whole army, there were soldiers who had good conscience who did not partake in those lusts.
I know a dozen people who had served in the Red army whom I have talked stuff like this over I could tell you even the specific nationalities and ethnicities that were among the most violent within that army, but I won't do it here because it will easily be labeled racism and stir up some negative feedback.In fact one of your provided links actually hints at one of the reasons I would have explained

Asian societies comprising the Soviet Union believed that dishonor was avenged by raping the women of the enemy.

Germans had their fair share of atrocities too, but they were less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war (on average), as my now gone relatives told me when I was a kid from their personal experience, and there is a good explanation for that, again background. Germany had a much higher standard of living and culture and everything else pre WW2 than Russia.

Recall few years ago immigrants from the middle east raped women in Germany during New Year's eve, there wasn't even a war happening, again background. Anyone who knows about the average background that people grow up in various middle eastern countries would understand.
But the point is this, background matters alot. People have very different approach to life in the far east and many of the "stans" countries than in the west.

PS. I have seen the Stanford prison experiment, yes good movie.

 

[artis]

Here is a good read for those with enough time.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-war-marines-front-lines-1334770/

 

[artis]

Boris Johnson visits Kyiv and Zelensky,



A nice speech by Boris, let's hope it materializes , especially the military aid part

 

[neilparker62]

Boris Johnson visits Kyiv and Zelensky,

A nice speech by Boris, let's hope it materializes , especially the military aid part

A more measured speech certainly - he did not repeat his "Brexit bloomer".

 

[artis]

And there's that Russian convoy again, this time in a different place and shorter,
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/worl...ne-satellite-images-phil-black-ndwknd-vpx.cnn

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine expects a major offensive in the Donbas, with attacks by aircraft, rockets/missiles, and artillery.

A spokesperson for Hungary's Prime Minister told CNN the country will not supply weapons to support Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-new...s-04-08-22/h_be9b7a46758a16d9a4c1a2b7eab53b9b

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as his military shifts plans after a failure to take Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official.

The officials told CNN Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has been named theater commander of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine

A new theater commander with extensive combat experience could bring a level of coordination to an assault now expected to focus on the Donbas region, instead of multiple fronts.

Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia’s military operations in Syria, after Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to back the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. During Dvornikov’s command in Syria from September 2015 to June 2016, Russian aircraft backed the Assad regime and its allies as they laid siege to rebel-held eastern Aleppo, bombarding densely populated neighborhoods and causing major civilian casualties.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-new...s-04-09-22/h_ff5483c56912605145a6806accf7b402

 

[Astronuc]

Ezra Klein - A conversation with Fiona Hill, former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council, on whether Ukraine can win.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-fiona-hill.html

A good analysis of the situation and long term consequences/outcome. Consider that Ukrainian farmers produce about 20% of the worlds wheat (mentioned earlier in this thread), and they are not planting right now, which is the beginning of planting season. Many may not plant this year. Russian attacks and landmines prevent many farmers/civilians from getting their farming and support work done. Furthermore, Russia is attacking the transportation infrastructure and ports. Odessa is a principal port for shipping grain to the global market, and it is a priority target. If Putin can't take/control it, he'll destroy it. It will undermine Ukrainian foreign trade and hurt the global market. Russia can charge other countries that need its grain in Rubles, and at inflated prices.

There are long term prospects of food shortages and famine in some parts of the world and higher commodity prices.

Russia also supplies a lot of fertilizer to the global markets. Again, the cost will increase.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of fertilizers, accounting for 23% of ammonia exports, 14% of urea exports, 10% of processed phosphate exports, and 21% of potash exports, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute.

https://www.tfi.org/content/statement-russia-ukraine-conflict

https://www.reuters.com/business/sa...ortage-imperils-world-food-supply-2022-03-23/

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2...-fertilizer-exports-to-brazil-and-the-us.html

The Russian aggression against Ukraine must be stopped!

 

[artis]

Admittedly I'm not the biggest CNN fan but so far they have been covering this war really well, even the historical aspect of it. This video is very good, especially the second part, even attention to small details like the prison cell food door opens up before Jake Tapper begins to speak inside the cell, nicely done.
PS. That prison you saw , a similar one was within the basement of every KGB building, back in Stalin's time it was under the NKVD, they held political prisoners as well as other NKVD arrested people in those basements, the local one where I have been after it ceased to be a police building had a furnace in the basement. I asked why the furnace? Since the building already had central heating from the city.
The answer was simple, they used the furnace to rise the temperature in the cells to about 104 and up Fahrenheit. It was like a constant sauna in there, no fresh air no daylight , pure heat and noise, sleep was next to impossible, they did not even have to beat them up most were willing to confess to anything after few days.

Since the building was in city center , when they carried out executions in the basement they had a special room with noise dampening materials on the walls and open street like sewer system in the floor in order to drain the blood. When shots were carried out, large gasoline engines were started in the backyard and revved to dampen and kill any unwanted noise escaping the basement.

Before the horrors of NKVD and KGB the building was originally built as a rent house with apartments in it back in 1911. This is in Riga, Latvia.

Now it looks like this

It had a nickname "the corner house" due to it's location. A nickname few dared to say out loud as it brought chills down ones spine.
You can see some pictures from the inside in this link
https://www.la.lv/stura-maja-nekadas-akstisanas
It is now a museum and from time to time hosts the performance art of various art students.
One art exposition that happened in 2015 looked like this, a symbolized Putin crucified with countless nails to a red cross.

Kremlin asked our government to take away this exposition , apparently the "dictator" wasn't happy of our bravery of showing him the way by which many of us would like him to die...

 

[Isopod]

I'm not sure what exactly you refuse to buy? You basically argued against something which I did not say.
My claim was not that the Russian army became like this recently. It has always been like that and somewhat for the very reason you dismissed - which is the low education and harsh backgrounds of many of it's conscripts.

To use your own phrases , no not even "country bumpkins" are the same everywhere, yes people do have a capability towards violence but the background in which they grow up matters alot.
I had a friend who grew up in an orphanage , he said himself that he was probably the only guy in his "class" in the orphanage who doesn't commit violence on a daily basis. He even got raped by his very "friends" while in the orphanage.
And yet this is not how I remember my childhood while growing up in a family , nor were my friends violent thugs nor did we rape each other.

So once more I'm not sure what you find so hard to buy in what I said.
The fact that the Soviet army wasn't much better during WW2 is exactly for the very reasons I said.
And then again it wasn't the whole army, there were soldiers who had good conscience who did not partake in those lusts.
I know a dozen people who had served in the Red army whom I have talked stuff like this over I could tell you even the specific nationalities and ethnicities that were among the most violent within that army, but I won't do it here because it will easily be labeled racism and stir up some negative feedback.In fact one of your provided links actually hints at one of the reasons I would have explained


Germans had their fair share of atrocities too, but they were less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war (on average), as my now gone relatives told me when I was a kid from their personal experience, and there is a good explanation for that, again background. Germany had a much higher standard of living and culture and everything else pre WW2 than Russia.

Recall few years ago immigrants from the middle east raped women in Germany during New Year's eve, there wasn't even a war happening, again background. Anyone who knows about the average background that people grow up in various middle eastern countries would understand.
But the point is this, background matters alot. People have very different approach to life in the far east and many of the "stans" countries than in the west.

PS. I have seen the Stanford prison experiment, yes good movie.

1. I don't buy the premise that the people committing the rape & torture etc in the Russian army are all solely (or mainly) recruits from incredibly distant & backwards parts of Russia (that basically, Russians who come from the cities etc are quite frankly too civilized to behave like this).

2. I don't really get the relevance of your orphanage story.

3. My argument is that military/wartime environments can bring out the worst in anyone (regardless of their prior background) and that a darkness in the human spirit dwells in most people (and that it doesn't take as much as you'd think to bring this out).

4. If you are familar with the Stanford Prison Experiment, then you can surely appreciate how anyone's behaviour can change under the right conditions (regardless of their background).

5. "Germans had their fair share of atrocities too, but they were less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war (on average), as my now gone relatives told me when I was a kid from their personal experience, and there is a good explanation for that, again background. Germany had a much higher standard of living and culture and everything else pre WW2 than Russia."

Sorry, but this is hilarious. My grandfather spent years in POW camps during WW2 and he have hugely disagreed with you that the Germans were "less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war". Do you realize who you are talking about here? U'know, the ones who committed massive crimes against humanity and war crimes, who tortured & killed endless people in the concentration camps?
My grandfather 1st hand experienced and witnessed war crimes being committed in those camps and I 100% believe him when he told me the Nazi guards were absolutely savage towards the POWs (I've heard his stories).

I'm sorry, but I can't take anyone seriously who says that the Germans were a better type of person during war because of their creed, because it ignores insanely huge bodies of both real world evidence, stuff like the Nuremburg Trials, millions of eye witness statements and so much more. Although I have some German blood in my ancestry, even I would never argue nor believe that the Germans are somehow a better breed of people or behaved better than others in war because of their background/heritage.

When you go on about your life VS the orphans or stuff like Germans & central Russians being people of too good a background people to commit rape & torture etc upon others during times of war, you don't come across to me as someone who is worldly, but someone who has led an incredibly sheltered existence (and who may even hold a certain arrogance about themself, believing themself to be an innately better variety of person than others because of their own background/breeding).

(IMHO) pretty much all & any people's are capable of great cruelty regardless of their backgrounds.

Edit: Thinking like yours disturbs me as its exactly thinking like this which evidences the historical whitewashing and denial that is becoming increasingly apparent amongst people today regarding past events like WW2. It is also thinking like yours that often leads to many of the worst episodes of history not only being repeated, but people also failing to adequately address or combat them as they occur in real-time.

 

[Isopod]

Please back that up.

Roughly 10 million people have died in wars post 1946 (vs. 85 million in WW2). Major wars were the partition of India, the Bangladesh Indepedence wars, the Soviet-Afghan war, the Second Congo War, the Second Sudanese Civil War, the Ethiopian Civil War, the Nigerian Civil War,

It's easy to blame the US. But the bloodiest conflicts tend not to have US involvement, andto be in parts of the world nobody cares about. One might even argue that post-war decolonization was the major cause of war deaths post-WW2.

For example:

1. The US rationale for the war in Iraq has faced heavy criticism both inside & outside of America stretching back to pretty much since it began.
2. Many people also argue that the war in Afghanistan was a mistake.
3. The US involvement in taking down Gaddafi and its role in Libya/Syria.

"The Legacy of Obama’s ‘Worst Mistake’" https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/04/obamas-worst-mistake-libya/478461/

Pretty much everyone I know feels that these wars were a mistake and that all ended up being **** shows. So widespread were the feelings about Iraq in particular, that "no more Iraqs" was one of the big reasons why Obama was voted in, and the pulling out of troops in the Middle Eastern wars was a huge reason why Trump garnered a lot of support in his campaign (so we can't pretend that its new/novel/fringe opinion that wars like the one in Iraq were a mistake & highly controversial).

Of course you're free to disagree and argue that these wars were absolutely necessary (etc), but vast volumes of people (including endless ex-forces personel who fought in these wars) would beg to differ.

I feel that WW1 & WW2 were absolute necessary wars to fight because there is no doubt that Hitler was evil & bent on invasion. But most of the wars fought since then? A lot more debatable.

The war in Ukraine though? It should be obvious to anyone that Putin is evil and bent on invasion (I also do not believe that his intentions will stop at Ukraine). Ukraine is the most "moral" war that we've engaged in since WW2 but ironically, its also turned out to be the war that we've most held back from actually directly fighting in because now we're up against someone who really does have WMD's and the power to properly fight us back.