What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[Evo]

People shouldn't jump to conclusions based on the first story they read.

As I indicated yesterday, the idea that just because diplomat Frank Wisner worked for the Patton Boggs law firm, that didn't necessarily mean that he was personally involved in working on matters related to Egypt. Now comes this from Justin Elliott in Salon:

"The law firm of Frank Wisner, who was the Obama administration's special envoy to Egpyt last week, is denying that Wisner ever worked for the Egyptian government, which has been a client of the firm, Patton Boggs

continued

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2011/feb/08/egypt-obama-administration

 

[Nicodemus]

As for what's going on in Egypt, more and larger protests is what. This man, who also helped organize these protests, seems to have given some new spirit to the protesters.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/08/google-executive-hailed-hero-online/

 

[Proton Soup]

Democracy is a virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcnrxiAf3E8

 

[Nicodemus]

Democracy is a virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcnrxiAf3E8

Wow, I want to hate and make fun of the man, but really he's just old and bitter and I can't find that anything but sad. That said, viral replication doesn't have to be a bad thing; it's been working for viruses for a while now, and they regularly kick our butts. Maybe he meant it more in a threatening way to arab leaders, and less in the, 'Agent Smith' way?

Or maybe he's bat-guano crazy, old, mean, and trying to give biden a run for the, "Say WHAAAT?!" medal.

 

[WhoWee]

Democracy is a virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcnrxiAf3E8

What type of "democracy" is spreading? I wonder if everyone will be treated as equals?

 

[Proton Soup]

What type of "democracy" is spreading? I wonder if everyone will be treated as equals?

that's a good question. with what strain did we inoculate Iraq and Afghanistan? perhaps it is one of those.

currently tho, the hosts appear to be mounting a defense to the infection, as evident from the inflammation. chances are still pretty high that it will go into remission.

 

[mheslep]

While observing all these events I'm fascinated to recall the amazingly personal incident that ignited it all some six weeks ago in Tunisia.

On December 17, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a university graduate whose fruits-and-vegetables market stand was confiscated by police because it had no permit, tried to yank back his apples. He was slapped in the face by a female municipal inspector and eventually beaten by her colleagues. His later appeals were ignored. Humiliated, he drenched himself in paint thinner and set himself on fire. He died on January 4.

On the morning of Dec. 17, when other vendors say Ms. Hamdy tried to confiscate Mr. Bouazizi’s fruit, and then slapped him in the face for trying to yank back his apples, he became the hero — now the martyred hero — and she became the villain in a remarkable swirl of events in which Tunisians have risen up to topple a 23-year dictatorship and march on, demanding radical change in their government.
...
In a series of interviews, the other fruit vendors, officials and family members described the seemingly routine confrontation that had set off a revolution. They said that Mr. Bouazizi, embarrassed and angry, had wrestled with Ms. Hamdy and was beaten by two of her colleagues, who also took his electronic scale. He walked a few blocks to the municipal building, demanded his property, and was beaten again, they said. Then he walked to the governor’s office, demanded an audience and was refused.

That is, Bouazizi wasn't some religious or political activist martyred by some government death squad. They guy just wanted to go about his business, selling his apples in the market with some dignity.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/wehner/388528
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/22/world/africa/22sidi.html?_r=1

 

[Nicodemus]

While observing all these events I find it amazing to recall the incident that ignited it all some six weeks ago in Tunisia.






That is, Bouazizi wasn't some religious or political activist martyred by some government death squad. They guy just wanted to go about his business, selling his apples in the market with some dignity.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/wehner/388528
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/22/world/africa/22sidi.html?_r=1

Never corner a man, even in his own mind, unless you want to see what they're really capable of. That said, while he was very much the spark, there has been talk of revolution in Egypt for the last few years, just muted. For instance, a year ago the Egyptian American (association?) Something went to Egypt to tell Mubarak that a revolution was coming, and he'd better change. Apparantly one analyst predicted this kind of secular revolt coming as well, but these views were neither wanted or believed.

In busily trying to impose our own views of what's right on others, we've maintained a stolid deafness to their actual demands and desires. How are we spreading democracy, AND arming dictators at the same time, I mean, look at the fantastic job we did in Central America. :p

 

[mheslep]

Never corner a man, even in his own mind, unless you want to see what they're really capable of. That said, while he was very much the spark, there has been talk of revolution in Egypt for the last few years, just muted. For instance, a year ago the Egyptian American (association?) Something went to Egypt to tell Mubarak that a revolution was coming, and he'd better change. Apparantly one analyst predicted this kind of secular revolt coming as well, but these views were neither wanted or believed.

Last few years? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_El_Sadat"

In busily trying to impose our own views of what's right on others, we've maintained a stolid deafness to their actual demands and desires. How are we spreading democracy, AND arming dictators at the same time, I mean, look at the fantastic job we did in Central America. :p

Half a century ago? The record is more mixed than you suggest. A little more recently, the US did a very good job in aiding the exit of authoritarians in Chile, S. Korea, and the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Marcos#Downfall", all without blood shed on the order of a civil war or large insurrection.

 

[Nicodemus]

Last few years? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_El_Sadat"

Half a century ago? The record is more mixed than you suggest. A little more recently, the US did a very good job in aiding the exit of authoritarians in Chile, S. Korea, and the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Marcos#Downfall", all without blood shed on the order of a civil war or large insurrection.

I wasn't arguing for the stability of the region, or Egypt, just pointing out that this specific kind of outrage over economic and social issues was boiling over. I'm fairly sure that you could look at history as a series of connected threads, and repeated events; that doesn't argue against this particular one being for seen by some.

Yes, we did do a good job, and we've always been very good at keeping our dictators in the mood to disappear rather than openly slaughter their people. Why, look at the actions of the security services in Egypt once the cameras stopped paying such close attention, and people left the public eye. I'd add, gently removing an aging dictator after they've looted their country (and thereby ours in some cases) and treated their people horridly isn't something to be proud of. All I'm seeing is that you prefer your suffering drawn out and less visible, rather than taking place explosively and more obviously. Maybe I'm missing your point, in which case I'm listening.

If you want to really go on a rundown of the legacy of US blowback, that seems like it would take a whole thread, but I'm game. In all fairness, I will be leading with the Afghani Mujahideen, fyi.

 

[WhoWee]

I wasn't arguing for the stability of the region, or Egypt, just pointing out that this specific kind of outrage over economic and social issues was boiling over. I'm fairly sure that you could look at history as a series of connected threads, and repeated events; that doesn't argue against this particular one being for seen by some.

Yes, we did do a good job, and we've always been very good at keeping our dictators in the mood to disappear rather than openly slaughter their people. Why, look at the actions of the security services in Egypt once the cameras stopped paying such close attention, and people left the public eye. I'd add, gently removing an aging dictator after they've looted their country (and thereby ours in some cases) and treated their people horridly isn't something to be proud of. All I'm seeing is that you prefer your suffering drawn out and less visible, rather than taking place explosively and more obviously. Maybe I'm missing your point, in which case I'm listening.

If you want to really go on a rundown of the legacy of US blowback, that seems like it would take a whole thread, but I'm game. In all fairness, I will be leading with the Afghani Mujahideen, fyi.

There's an old saying, "if you want something done right - you should do it yourself". That's basically the Communist management model. The global US model is a more de-centralized management structure. Unfortunately, all of the autonomous partners are not equal.

 

[Proton Soup]

http://www.global.ucsb.edu/faculty/amar.html" .

• although the police forces are generally very close to Mubarak, they have achieved some autonomy and engage in organized crime such as protection rackets and drug running, or even engaging in militant ideology.
  
• gangs run some areas and the interior ministry has hired them to carry out brutality.
  
• Amn al-Markazi soldiers have themselves risen up in the past to demand higher wages from Mubarak.
  
• Armed Forces generals have been bought off into running their own private business enterprises. claims the Army has a sense of shame and "neutered masculinity" for allowing organized crime elements to rule the nation.
  
• Armed Forces are not united, with a small number loyal to Mubarak.
  
• Intelligence Services loathed Gamal Mubarak and may not be loyal to Mubarak himself.
  
• Businessmen are threatened by Mubarak favoring foreign investors.
  
• Youth Movements are basically organized labor unions, unrelated to Muslim Brotherhood.
  
• Thinks there is a strong UN component to the uprising.
  
• Thinks Mubarak is already out of power.

 

[Al68]

interesting guy that Wisner. seems he was already bought and paid for.

What was Obama thinking with Wisner? He would have been better off sending Michael Steele and friends over there to do a song and dance for them.

 

[AlephZero]

Again, the 80 million people of Egypt need time to make decisions based on reason and facts (actual solutions for need) - not the emotional decisions made by a very small (even one million is small in this context) crowd in the largest city.

By example - would all Americans be represented if 100,000 angry New Yorkers decided the best way to govern the US?

You are overlooking the fundamental cultural differences in the way these two societies work. Without any implication that one culture is "better" than the other, or of stereotyping individuals, middle eastern society works on the basic principle that each person acts as either "master" or "servant". One person can switch roles depending who he/she is dealing with, but the key to understanding the mindset is realizing there is very little between the two extremes. Putting a group of people together and expecting then to negotiate an agreed compromise just doesn't work, because it is completely foreign to their whole mindset. The group would be far more likely to select a "leader" (quite likely on grounds that would appear irrational to a western observer) and then happly "follow" him/her without much questioning of the quality of the leadership.

But the Tea Party movement might suggest there is less difference between the two cultures than one might have imagined...

My point is the crowds observed in Cairo - estimates of tens of thousands to one million - are gathered in unity with one purpose - to rid the country of their leader. Beyond that goal - they don't appear to have an on-going strategy.

That's exactly right. The crowds in the square are in "master" mode. They will stay that way until something happens to switch them back into "servant" mode. Clearly they are not going to revert to being "servants" of Mubarak.

Do we also agree that people are engaged in emotion-based behavior that is not typical (in Cairo)?

IMO the behaviour is absolutely "typical". The only unusual thing about it is that it is rare on such a large scale. You can see it every day among small groups of people, at all levels of personal interaction.

 

[WhoWee]

You are overlooking the fundamental cultural differences in the way these two societies work. Without any implication that one culture is "better" than the other, or of stereotyping individuals, middle eastern society works on the basic principle that each person acts as either "master" or "servant". One person can switch roles depending who he/she is dealing with, but the key to understanding the mindset is realizing there is very little between the two extremes. Putting a group of people together and expecting then to negotiate an agreed compromise just doesn't work, because it is completely foreign to their whole mindset. The group would be far more likely to select a "leader" (quite likely on grounds that would appear irrational to a western observer) and then happly "follow" him/her without much questioning of the quality of the leadership.

But the Tea Party movement might suggest there is less difference between the two cultures than one might have imagined...



That's exactly right. The crowds in the square are in "master" mode. They will stay that way until something happens to switch them back into "servant" mode. Clearly they are not going to revert to being "servants" of Mubarak.



IMO the behaviour is absolutely "typical". The only unusual thing about it is that it is rare on such a large scale. You can see it every day among small groups of people, at all levels of personal interaction.

It sounds as though you believe a small but organized Muslim Brotherhood faction might seize power in a country of 80 million?

 

[Proton Soup]

Roots of the revolution and the power of anonymous

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_egypt

CAIRO – A young Google executive who helped ignite Egypt's uprising energized a cheering crowd of hundreds of thousands Tuesday with his first appearance in their midst after being released from 12 days in secret detention. "We won't give up," he promised at one of the biggest protests yet in Cairo's Tahrir Square.
...

Ghonim is an Egyptian who oversees Google Inc.'s marketing in the Middle East and Africa from Dubai, one of the United Arab Emirates. He vanished two days after the protests began on Jan. 25, snatched off the street by security forces and hustled to a secret location.

Earlier this year, Ghonim — anonymously — launched a Facebook page commemorating Khaled Said, a 28-year-old businessman in Alexandria who was beaten to death by two policemen in June. The page became a rallying point for a campaign against police brutality, with hundreds of thousands joining. For many Egyptians, it was the first time to learn details of the extent of widespread torture in their own country.
...

and there is much more there. it is interesting how a small protest, organized on facebook, snowballed into something much bigger. and then, even after Ghonim's arrest, continued to operate on its own and grow roots on the ground with people organizing locally by telephone. and MB's initial reluctance to associate themselves with it. funny how MB continues to be the whipping boy for fomenting prejudice against them.

 

[Proton Soup]

interview with Wael Ghonim, with english subtitles. i tried the youtube box here, but it loses the subtitles.

Part 1 at bottom: http://egypt.alive.in/tag/wael/

 

[Proton Soup]

more on Wisner with some really harsh comments from an old acquaintance

http://www.thenation.com/blog/158392/i-smell-metternich-everywhere-frank-wisner-and-egypt

There’s been a lot of commentary over the last couple of days regarding Frank Wisner, who, depending on whom you ask in the White House, is either an envoy to Egypt or not an envoy to Egypt, who does or doesn’t speak for the Obama administration. Wisner’s comments in Munich last Saturday backing Mubarak caused an uproar, as did revelations that his law firm worked for the Egyptian regime and Wisner is an “old friend” of Mubarak. That’s the least of it. His father, Frank Sr., was involved in all sorts of imperial shenanigans, including running the coup that overthrew Jacobo Arbenz in Guatemala in 1954. Vijay Prasad had a nice essay on Counterpunch and a turn on Democracy Now!, talking about father and son, and dubbing Wisner the “empire’s bagman.”

Below are the comments of Stuart Schaar, professor emeritus at Brooklyn College, who is an old acquaintance of Wisner Jr. I had Stuart as a teacher when I did my BA at Brooklyn, and his knowledge of the Middle East is unsurpassed. He is now retired and living in Morocco, where he is watching events, like many of us, with a mix of hope and dread.
...

 

[WhoWee]

more on Wisner with some really harsh comments from an old acquaintance

http://www.thenation.com/blog/158392/i-smell-metternich-everywhere-frank-wisner-and-egypt

The Middle East is a tough neighborhood. I don't have a problem with his experience - as long as he's operating under the strict control of Secretary Clinton.

 

[Nicodemus]

There's an old saying, "if you want something done right - you should do it yourself". That's basically the Communist management model. The global US model is a more de-centralized management structure. Unfortunately, all of the autonomous partners are not equal.

You're right, which is why in the case of someone like Saddam, we backed off when he went off the rails, or backed both sides of the Iran-Iraq war. We used Afghanistan and its people as proxies, and it was our LACK of stewardship later which in part, led to the terrorist threat we face now. Our time in central america has left Guatemala a sideshow, Nicaragua is doing pretty well I'll admit, but Venezuela has Chavez. Chile is better, granted, but Cuba and Castro are still mocking us.

Some of these partners were definitely autonomous, some could only maintain power with aid, and some were proxies. The word looks a lot like what it is: recovering from a thorough trampling by two "cold"-warring superpowers.

 

[WhoWee]

You're right, which is why in the case of someone like Saddam, we backed off when he went off the rails, or backed both sides of the Iran-Iraq war. We used Afghanistan and its people as proxies, and it was our LACK of stewardship later which in part, led to the terrorist threat we face now. Our time in central america has left Guatemala a sideshow, Nicaragua is doing pretty well I'll admit, but Venezuela has Chavez. Chile is better, granted, but Cuba and Castro are still mocking us.

Some of these partners were definitely autonomous, some could only maintain power with aid, and some were proxies. The word looks a lot like what it is: recovering from a thorough trampling by two "cold"-warring superpowers.

Rather than comment on your specific statements, I'll put one more file on the table - Somalia. Sometimes it's better to leash the mean dogs and feed them - rather than to let them run free at the expense of innocents - would you agree?

 

[Nicodemus]

Rather than comment on your specific statements, I'll put one more file on the table - Somalia. Sometimes it's better to leash the mean dogs and feed them - rather than to let them run free at the expense of innocents - would you agree?

Rather than comment on your specific statements, I'll put one more file on the table - what's a bad dog? What made them bad? Could Caesar Milan help where the old hickory stick and leash fail?

 

[WhoWee]

Rather than comment on your specific statements, I'll put one more file on the table - what's a bad dog? What made them bad? Could Caesar Milan help where the old hickory stick and leash fail?

Somalia is an example of what happens when there is no structure and support.

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/somalia/index.html

"Somalia has not had an effective central government since 1991, when the former government was toppled by clan militias that later turned on each other. For decades, generals, warlords and warrior types have reduced this once languid coastal country in Eastern Africa to rubble. Somalia remains a raging battle zone today, with jihadists pouring in from overseas, intent on toppling the transitional government."

 

[Nicodemus]

Somalia is an example of what happens when there is no structure and support.

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/somalia/index.html

"Somalia has not had an effective central government since 1991, when the former government was toppled by clan militias that later turned on each other. For decades, generals, warlords and warrior types have reduced this once languid coastal country in Eastern Africa to rubble. Somalia remains a raging battle zone today, with jihadists pouring in from overseas, intent on toppling the transitional government."

Really? I think there are other examples that, while miserable for the populace, doesn't present a threat to international shipping. Egypt isn't one of those, but neither does it have the rather unfortunate history of Somalia. I'm not sure why you think that Egypt, with a massively well equipped and nearly autonomous military would ever fall to lawlessness, rather than at worst, a military junta.

 

[WhoWee]

Really? I think there are other examples that, while miserable for the populace, doesn't present a threat to international shipping. Egypt isn't one of those, but neither does it have the rather unfortunate history of Somalia. I'm not sure why you think that Egypt, with a massively well equipped and nearly autonomous military would ever fall to lawlessness, rather than at worst, a military junta.

What makes you believe the crowd in the streets wants the military to keep it's close ties to the US - or to even maintain such a large force? I still question whether the crowd in the streets actually speaks for the other 81 million people?

 

[Nicodemus]

What makes you believe the crowd in the streets wants the military to keep it's close ties to the US - or to even maintain such a large force? I still question whether the crowd in the streets actually speaks for the other 81 million people?

I don't believe any of that, but I have great faith in the Egyptian military's ability to control their country if they truly decide that's necessary. Only a fracturing of Egypt's military into warring states could lead to Somalia, and there is the public attention and pressure on Egypt... home of the Pyramids.

Somalia really went from crap to crappier to hellscape; Egypt is far more complex and advanced as a country, society, and has a much more stable history. I would believe in a foreign military occupation of Egypt before I would the world allows Egypt to descend into anarchy.

To address what you've said directly: I have no CLUE if the people on the streets represent 81 million, but that's not the point. If we made that same argument every time there's a revolution, or call to civil rights then anything short of a majority turnout would be pointless, right? Beyond that, there is no religious sector in Egypt that is more potent than its economic and military sector: I don't think Egypt, in whatever form, would be stupid enough to reject the help/hooks we've given/sunk-in.

 

[WhoWee]

I don't believe any of that, but I have great faith in the Egyptian military's ability to control their country if they truly decide that's necessary. Only a fracturing of Egypt's military into warring states could lead to Somalia, and there is the public attention and pressure on Egypt... home of the Pyramids.

Somalia really went from crap to crappier to hellscape; Egypt is far more complex and advanced as a country, society, and has a much more stable history. I would believe in a foreign military occupation of Egypt before I would the world allows Egypt to descend into anarchy.

To address what you've said directly: I have no CLUE if the people on the streets represent 81 million, but that's not the point. If we made that same argument every time there's a revolution, or call to civil rights then anything short of a majority turnout would be pointless, right? Beyond that, there is no religious sector in Egypt that is more potent than its economic and military sector: I don't think Egypt, in whatever form, would be stupid enough to reject the help/hooks we've given/sunk-in.

Please clarify -are you saying that you do not think the crowd in the streets wants the military to keep it's close ties to the US - or to even maintain such a large force?

 

[Nicodemus]

Please clarify -are you saying that you do not think the crowd in the streets wants the military to keep it's close ties to the US - or to even maintain such a large force?

I'm saying that I don't know what a crowd of tens of thousands wants, if they do beyond the desire to see an end to Mubarak et al. I don't think the crowd in Tahrir Square is the group that will ultimately form any new government (for the most part), and those who have come forth as possibilities (this google exec, ElBaradei) are not going to turn away over a billion a year.

In my limited experience, the Egyptian people love their military, and if that military took stewardship of the country in a move to the kinds of elections these crowds want... it would happen. Egypt is a very unique country in my experience; more western European in some ways than even the UAE, but also terribly poor. It is seen as the soul of the Arab world, and I think the people of Egypt believe and take pride in that.

We'll see if that leads to anything better, but I suspect neither free and democratic elections, or the doom of Somalia. I don't claim that either are not outside possibilities, but Egypt-as-Somalia doesn't keep up in the wee hours.

 

[AlephZero]

I don't think Egypt, in whatever form, would be stupid enough to reject the help/hooks we've given/sunk-in.

You really don't "get it" (but nether do most of another 300 million people, so don't take it personally). That sort of patronizing arrogance from the US is exactly the reason WHY 82% of Egyptians are anti-American.

Why should a nation that has been an international political player for at least 5000 years, and survived the experience, take lessons from some bunch of upstarts who haven't even governed themselves for 250 years yet? Sure, they will take your money, if you are fool enough to hand it out for free, just like they are happy to fleece dumb tourists from any other country...

That 82% figure came from a US polling organization (Pew) by the way.

 

[Nicodemus]

You really don't "get it" (but nether do most of another 300 million people, so don't take it personally). That sort of patronizing arrogance from the US is exactly the reason WHY 82% of Egyptians are anti-American.

Why should a nation that has been an international political player for at least 5000 years, and survived the experience, take lessons from some bunch of upstarts who haven't even governed themselves for 250 years yet? Sure, they will take your money, if you are fool enough to hand it out for free, just like they are happy to fleece dumb tourists from any other country...

That 82% figure came from a US polling organization (Pew) by the way.

The only fool is someone who thinks that a nation gives money away without profound hooks. Do you understand the relationship between their military and ours, and the reliance on our training, not just equipment that is there?

Anyway, the answer is simeple: We'll pay you and then hold your feet to the fire, the other options don't bother to pay you. If you have a case to make against the extreme dependence of the Egyptian military on the US, I'm listening, but otherwise, who cares? I'd add that the Egypt and Egyptians of today has about as much in common with Egyptians 5000 years ago, as wolves do with dogs. BIG difference, despite the similar morphology.

 

[Al68]

Oh Mr. Avocado... Please give that lady in your art work there a jacket please!

Come on, now. That was the attitude that caused the U.S. to alter the design of one of the most beautiful coins of all times after only one year:

 

[Lacy33]

breaking news

 

[OmCheeto]

breaking news

Which one?

Egypt Army Signals Steps to Take Power

Report: Army secretly torturing Egypt protesters

‎If it's a secret, why do I know about it?

Tehran vows to crush rally supporting Tunis, Cairo‎

 

[Lacy33]

breaking news

 

[WhoWee]

breaking news

...an un-named US official is leaking that Mubarak will yield power to VP - the big news is the news people don't know what the news is...LOL