What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[DevilsAvocado]

Nope! We didn't need M-16s. Our loadout was a little more substantial. Not all at once, though! There are at least five different loadouts pictured, here:

I can’t help it, but everytime I see this nuke madness – I always think of Dr. Strangelove aka Dr. Merkwürdigliebe...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji6xXqTuJow

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Dangerous... and here is where the Turkish model comes into play. You can't tell the MB to stick it where the sun doesn't shine, because that IS part of what people hate in Egypt. By the same token, the scenario you lay out sounds like the setting for total war in the region, possibly a WW. Obviously a balance must be struck wherein you have the MB free to be party, but NOT free to create a theocracy directly or through social manipulation.

Who can do all of that, in Egypt... now? The military... that's it... and the people want a CIVILIAN government. I worry.

Worrying indeed... (I hope Lacy is not reading)

Couldn’t they propose a new constitution where MB is very welcome as a "clean political party" without the "theocracy overhead", to 'consider and protect' the Muslim interest in Egypt?

Why is this so impossible??

Couldn’t there be constitution stating by law a separation of church and state?? That democracy is protected by law??

 

[WhoWee]

Worrying indeed... (I hope Lacy is not reading)

Couldn’t they propose a new constitution where MB is very welcome as a "clean political party" without the "theocracy overhead", to 'consider and protect' the Muslim interest in Egypt?

Why is this so impossible??

Couldn’t there be constitution stating by law a separation of church and state?? That democracy is protected by law??

That's a great idea - if the military is charged with enforcement.

 

[nismaratwork]

That's a great idea - if the military is charged with enforcement.

That's the issue... back to the Atatürk model, and that means military enforcement. Still, it's hard to argue that Turkey didn't avoid even more death and destruction with their policies, but it's hard to argue that they're not draconian either.

Egypt is in for "Interesting Times", in the Chinese proverbial sense; we all are.

 

[nismaratwork]

*looks at thread title*

Evo... Thanks Evo, and thanks for the good notion DA.

 

[Evo]

*looks at thread title*

Evo... Thanks Evo, and thanks for the good notion DA.

Anything for you guys.

 

[Proton Soup]

I basically agree with you, but honestly; Mubarak must be the one who used MB as a "scarecrow" to maintain his own dictatorship. AFAICT, both GWB and Obama have been 'pushing' for democratic reforms...

I wish you are right, but there is one big problem with this reasoning. The goal for MB is to implement an Islamic state, a theocracy with "God himself is recognized as the head" of the state. IMHO, this can never ever be 'compatible' with true democracy...

You could call this a "scarecrow", but then you run into troubles again – spokesmen for MB have declared on CNN that an Islamic state and Sharia laws is the goal for MB, "if this is what the people want"...

On top of that; when MB was asked about the Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty the answer was: "What would you do if a country attacked you?"

Therefore, I can’t see any sustainable argument for refuting Edward Djerejian’s statement: "one man, one vote, one time."

(+ a lot of messy troubles that no one wants)

(And I hope you are aware of the problem with the "people’s voice" in 'theocratic' Iran...)

I don’t really buy the argument that Israel is also a "bad guy" – two wrongs don’t make it right. And to hope for Israel’s "unconditional surrender" in a scenario were Hamas is backed up by an Islamic Egypt superpower, is most probably nothing more than a wet dream...

Both parts must stop the violence and terror, and start genuine and sincere talks. That’s the only way.

But we shall se... today MB has announced it will become a political party (as you see things changes rapidly). This political party must have some kind of declaration/program, and this will be very interesting to review...

Here’s some good background info: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/02/14/gerges.muslim.brotherhood/"

i'm not sure where you get this idea of israel's "unconditional surrender", they are not coming at this from a position of weakness. israel is working very hard to destroy the palestinians, and has been quite successful. what would be different with a democratic egypt is that the government would not approve of that behavior. and that could lead to diplomatic efforts that dissuade israel from continuing to “keep the Gazan economy on the brink of collapse.” in fact, a democratic egypt could change that policy unilaterally by simply re-opening the border with Gaza.

in any case, here's part of what Peter Beinart has to say:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-07/israels-fears-about-the-egyptian-uprising/

All of which is to say: a shift in U.S. and Israeli policy towards Hamas is long overdue. The organization has been basically observing a de-facto cease-fire for two years now, and in the last year its two top leaders, Khaled Meshal and Ismail Haniya, have both said Hamas would accept a two-state deal if the Palestinian people endorse it in a referendum. That doesn’t mean Hamas isn’t vile in many ways, but it does mean that Israel and America are better off allowing the Palestinians to create a democratically legitimate, national unity government that includes Hamas than continuing their current, immoral, failed policy. If a more democratic Egyptian government makes that policy harder to sustain, it may be doing Israel a favor.

 

[nismaratwork]

i'm not sure where you get this idea of israel's "unconditional surrender", they are not coming at this from a position of weakness. israel is working very hard to destroy the palestinians, and has been quite successful. what would be different with a democratic egypt is that the government would not approve of that behavior. and that could lead to diplomatic efforts that dissuade israel from continuing to “keep the Gazan economy on the brink of collapse.” in fact, a democratic egypt could change that policy unilaterally by simply re-opening the border with Gaza.

in any case, here's part of what Peter Beinart has to say:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-07/israels-fears-about-the-egyptian-uprising/

Hmmm... just based on Israeli military history, I'd have to say if they wanted the Palestinians destroyed... they'd be gone already. They're definitely choking them out economically, but this IS after Arafat decided to doom his people. Still, moral or immoral, it seems rational to smother a group of people who have, for whatever reason, become fairly intent on your complete destruction.

 

[BobG]

Worrying indeed... (I hope Lacy is not reading)

Couldn’t they propose a new constitution where MB is very welcome as a "clean political party" without the "theocracy overhead", to 'consider and protect' the Muslim interest in Egypt?

Why is this so impossible??

Couldn’t there be constitution stating by law a separation of church and state?? That democracy is protected by law??

Who is this they?

Whoever wins spots in the legislature when elections are held? I guess they could, provided, of course, that the MB wins so few spots that they're left with virtually no say about the constitution. Of course, if the MB doesn't have enough political power to win seats in the legislature (or on whatever transitional body that drafts a consitution), then they're too weak to worry about, anyway.

Unless we take WhoWee's idea a step further and let the military both write and enforce the constitution, but that certainly doesn't sound like a road to democracy.

I have to admit that the MB worries me, too. I don't think they could immediately implement Sharia law, but they've made no secret of their long term goal and I could see them doing it if they ever gained secure control of the government.

One would hope that some organized alternatives will emerge by time the military holds free elections and that the political power of those alternatives increases to the point that the MB just isn't a very attractive option.

 

[nismaratwork]

Oh lord... http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/sns-ap-us-tv-lara-logan-attack,0,5354829.story

NEW YORK (AP) — CBS News correspondent Lara Logan was recovering in a U.S. hospital Tuesday from a sexual attack and beating she suffered while reporting on the tumultuous events in Cairo.

Logan was in the city's Tahrir Square on Friday after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepped down when she, her team and their security "were surrounded by a dangerous element amidst the celebration," CBS said in a statement Tuesday.

The network described a mob of more than 200 people "whipped into a frenzy."

Separated from her crew in the crush of the violent pack, she suffered what CBS called "a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating." She was saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers, the network said. The Associated Press does not name victims of a sexual assault unless the victim agrees to it.

Wow, it turns out that mobs of people aren't always sweetness and light... still, that's horrendous. Good for those women and soldiers though.

 

[mheslep]

Unless we take WhoWee's idea a step further and let the military both write and enforce the constitution, but that certainly doesn't sound like a road to democracy.

Probably not, though at least one more or less successful example comes to mind: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atat%C3%BCrk" in Turkey.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Evo... Thanks Evo, and thanks for the good notion DA.

Anything for you guys.

Looking good! Thanks guys.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

i'm not sure where you get this idea of israel's "unconditional surrender", they are not coming at this from a position of weakness. israel is working very hard to destroy the palestinians, and has been quite successful. what would be different with a democratic egypt is that the government would not approve of that behavior. and that could lead to diplomatic efforts that dissuade israel from continuing to “keep the Gazan economy on the brink of collapse.” in fact, a democratic egypt could change that policy unilaterally by simply re-opening the border with Gaza.

Agree 100%, this is the dream we are (all?) hoping for.

If I had a 'magic wand', this is my (ignorant & silly) dream:

Egypt manages to get thru this first 'wavering' situation, and manage to establish a new constitution that secures democracy by law. The Muslim Brotherhood may get 20, 30 or 40% in the first election, and this is perfectly okay for everyone including U.S. and Israel, since democracy is secured. The younger generation, who started the revolution, gets their fair representation in the Parliament. This "melting pot" of new ideas and new opportunities boosts the economy in Egypt, and the rest of the world is stunned...

Basically the same miracle also happens in Iran, swift and easy!

Now, this would be nothing but a veritable nightmare for the hawks in Israel and Gaza. They would look like mediaeval goons, solving conflicts by throwing rocks at each other. They would be under tremendous diplomatic pressure from the whole world, and forced to solve the issues in a civilized manner...

I think this something along 'your lines' as well, right? The only difference between me and you, is that I think that every effort possible should be made to prevent the "theocracy door" to close on this 'dream', before we had a chance to reflect on – "What the heck happened!? "

("we" is kinda stupid, this is of course up to the Egyptian people...)

 

[Char. Limit]

Oh lord... http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/sns-ap-us-tv-lara-logan-attack,0,5354829.story



Wow, it turns out that mobs of people aren't always sweetness and light... still, that's horrendous. Good for those women and soldiers though.

Conservative America says that this proves that the movement in Egypt is pure evil. Guess we get to see what people do when they're panicked.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

That's a great idea - if the military is charged with enforcement.

Who is this they?

Unless we take WhoWee's idea a step further and let the military both write and enforce the constitution, but that certainly doesn't sound like a road to democracy.

"They" must be the http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8326469/Egypt-Islamist-judge-to-head-new-constitution-committee.html" and the constitutional panel.

I don’t know anything about writing a constitution... but shouldn’t it be possible to include a "Force majeure" in the new constitution, basically saying that under normal conditions the military should "mind their own business" and nothing else.

IF, and only IF, someone tries to change the constitution away from democracy, the military automatically will have the legal power to restrain any such attempt by force.

("someone" must not necessary be MB, it could be "Little Green Men From Mars"... )

If any part at this stage already has any objection to this "Force majeure" – I smell a rat.

 

[WhoWee]

Conservative America says that this proves that the movement in Egypt is pure evil. Guess we get to see what people do when they're panicked.

I'm not so sure about the "pure evil" analysis?

I do think Conservative people (me included) will wonder why the news organization thought the crowd would be 100% accepting of the beautiful western journalist - given the way other newspeople were treated just a few days earlier? Why do we (US) always assume people like us personally and want us around? I've done a fair amount of traveling and that's just not reality (IMO).

 

[Char. Limit]

I'm not so sure about the "pure evil" analysis?

I do think Conservative people (me included) will wonder why the news organization thought the crowd would be 100% accepting of the beautiful western journalist - given the way other newspeople were treated just a few days earlier? Why do we (US) always assume people like us personally and want us around? I've done a fair amount of traveling and that's just not reality (IMO).

That's what the people on SodaHead are telling me, and they're basically the meter stick I use for what conservative Americans think.

 

[nismaratwork]

Probably not, though at least one more or less successful example comes to mind: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atat%C3%BCrk" in Turkey.

We agree completely... look out for spontaneous formation of new universes or black holes.

I've been arguing for Kemalism in Egypt this whole time... I don't see any other way. HOWEVER... where is an Atatürk when you need one?

Virtually anything is better than this:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/15/iran.protests/index.html?hpt=T2

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Egypt is in for "Interesting Times", in the Chinese proverbial sense; we all are.

The first of three curses of increasing severity:

"May you live in interesting times."​

It’s the third that really worries me:

"May your wishes be granted."​

()

 

[nismaratwork]

Conservative America says that this proves that the movement in Egypt is pure evil. Guess we get to see what people do when they're panicked.

I just meant to point out the story... I don't see this as a partisan issue.

DA: Yeah, they really manage to chill the blood, eh? True, and tested by time and humanity...

 

[WhoWee]

That's what the people on SodaHead are telling me, and they're basically the meter stick I use for what conservative Americans think.

Again, I don't think the movement is "evil". But I do think Americans need to be more realistic about their involvement in such places. Everyone assumed the Government "thugs" exclusively beat those other journalists - that might have been a little naive?

 

[nismaratwork]

Again, I don't think the movement is "evil". But I do think Americans need to be more realistic about their involvement in such places. Everyone assumed the Government "thugs" exclusively beat those other journalists - that might have been a little naive?

Probably not... I really do think this is a case of people who were in a mob-mentality, a "celebratory" mood, and she would have stood out. Get a big enough group, and you'll have predators.

In the case of Thugs attacking journalists, the accusations have weight because of the methods used, unless the average Egyptian is learning pain-compliance techniques. Still... you're experiencing the "benefit" of a Basij-type enforcement... the uncertainty is vast even when there are atrocities.

edit: What the hell is Sodahead? This? http://www.sodahead.com/ I wouldn't use that a source of TP.

 

[OmCheeto]

Thanks for keeping me up to date on what's going on. My boss just changed my hours. I'm now working 7am to 5pm. With scrubbing the stinky parts and transit time, I only have time to sleep, and read PF for my news.

 

[nismaratwork]

Thanks for keeping me up to date on what's going on. My boss just changed my hours. I'm now working 7am to 5pm. With scrubbing the stinky parts and transit time, I only have time to sleep, and read PF for my news.

Ooooh... I'm sorry Cheeto... but uh... keep scrubbing or that transit will get pretty interesting. Trust PF... trrrrruuuussssssssst usssssss...

 

[WhoWee]

Ooooh... I'm sorry Cheeto... but uh... keep scrubbing or that transit will get pretty interesting. Trust PF... trrrrruuuussssssssst usssssss...

 

[OmCheeto]

Ooooh... I'm sorry Cheeto... but uh... keep scrubbing or that transit will get pretty interesting. Trust PF... trrrrruuuussssssssst usssssss...

Ok. Kidding aside.

This revolution in Egypt seems to be youth driven.

I know how old I am, and I know the age of a couple of people who have posted in this thread, but how old are the rest of you?

And why would(or should) one's age matter in this revolution?

Or is it totally irrelevant?

hmmmm...

What the hell??

I just heard that there was/is an uprising in Wisconsin.



hmm...

apparently I didn't do enough drugs, or am not old enough to understand the thought that just went through my brain...

...

damned "PF Random thoughts" thread...

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I just heard that there was/is an uprising in Wisconsin.

Gov Walker is trying to destroy the state labor union. My FB page is going off the hook with people going nuts over it. Had about 20k people at the capitol protesting.

Interesting clip on the caution with egypt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9sMo-LTdSc

 

[Al68]

Ok. Kidding aside.

This revolution in Egypt seems to be youth driven.

I know how old I am, and I know the age of a couple of people who have posted in this thread, but how old are the rest of you?

And why would(or should) one's age matter in this revolution?

Or is it totally irrelevant?

hmmmm...

What the hell??

I just heard that there was/is an uprising in Wisconsin.



hmm...

apparently I didn't do enough drugs, or am not old enough to understand the thought that just went through my brain...

...

damned "PF Random thoughts" thread...

Not enough drugs, you say?

 

[nismaratwork]

Gov Walker is trying to destroy the state labor union. My FB page is going off the hook with people going nuts over it. Had about 20k people at the capitol protesting.

Interesting clip on the caution with egypt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9sMo-LTdSc

Yeah... and now the most organized group other than the military wants to be a political party (MB). I'm so piqued in general that I could spit... and what the hell is the deal in WI?!

I feel like OmCheeto... I'm not sure that I did enough drugs, or too many to grasp the reasoning here. I'm pretty sure that I haven't done enough, or the right ones. I wasted time on THC when clearly I should have been pounding hallucinogens to prepare myself for this evolving world.

 

[turbo]

Gov Walker is trying to destroy the state labor union. My FB page is going off the hook with people going nuts over it. Had about 20k people at the capitol protesting.

We're going to have "troubles" in Maine if Tea-Party Governor Paul Le Page gets his way. He had held "red tape" conferences with business interests to find out which regulatory, environmental and safety "encumbrances" need to be rescinded in order to make businesses happy. The state workers' union and pensions are really fat targets.

Unfortunately, many taxpayers will go along because they don't have good-paying, full-time jobs with decent pensions, like state workers do, and they resent paying taxes to support those positions. It will be a race to the bottom for all workers if Le Page and other Tea-Party jerks get their way.

Egypt's leaders will have to tread very carefully to avoid disenfranchising a very large and powerful group (state police and special military forces) that could bring down the new government. The US has economic pressures that are forcing changes, but none so swift and abrupt as the changes in Egypt. Good luck to Egyptians!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

CNN: Israel-Iran Tension

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

CNN: Israel-Iran Tension

Two Iranian warships in suez canal
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/16/israel.iran.warships/index.html?hpt=T2

 

[DevilsAvocado]

We sure got that title right...

Bahrain

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCrZ6TtbkoQ

Libya

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0cwcIYk8bU

Iran

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW3IywhYArw

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Two Iranian warships in suez canal
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/16/israel.iran.warships/index.html?hpt=T2

WHAT THE F***!

help

 

[nismaratwork]

Two Iranian warships in suez canal
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/16/israel.iran.warships/index.html?hpt=T2

Well I can tell you how that story ends if it isn't just posturing. Maybe Iran wants to lose more centrifuges, AND have 2 vessels sunk by submarines? I don't understand the leadership, so maybe they really DO think that conflict with Israel would help to calm tensions at home and elsewhere. It's sick, but it could work.