What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

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  • Thread starter nismaratwork
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In summary, the protests in Egypt are continuing and there are reports of violence and fires. The situation is not looking good for the government.
  • #841
emphasis mine
mugaliens said:
... Correct me if I'm wrong, but a key difference between Bahrain and Egypt is that in Bahrain we don't have two factions of civilians warring against one another as we did with the anti-Mubarek and pro-Mubarek supporters in Egypt.

Civilians?? :eek: :eek: :eek:

Cut down on the FOX News and call your friend Obama instead...
 
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  • #842


arildno said:
The point is, Gokul:
You speak of "so many factors" that you, totally witout evidence, consider..significant.
They might just be..noise, that must be filtered away in order to get a better picture.
And you've decided that they are noise, even without examining them?

Alexandrine Copts MIGHT have a slighter bleaker view than you on the probable evolution in Egypt than you do, due to rather recent events.
I haven't expressed an opinion on such a probability, so this has nothing to do with anything I've said here.

Much worse than in, for example, Oman.
Hooray, we found one authoritarian state in the ME with better womens' rights than Bangladesh (assuming this is true). That totally proves your point!
 
  • #843
mugaliens said:
Sounds like a concession to me. Would you rather he keep beating them down?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a key difference between Bahrain and Egypt is that in Bahrain we don't have two factions of civilians warring against one another as we did with the anti-Mubarek and pro-Mubarek supporters in Egypt.



Good luck! Until everyone gives up their ties to Sunni or Shiite versions of Islam, it's not going to happen. We have a two-party system here in the US, although it falls more along strictly political, rather than religious lines. To date, while our Presidents have run the gamut of Protestant affiliations and no affiliations, we've only had one Catholic president: John F. Kennedy.

It may be a concession, but it's a very odd one to make, don't you think? They can't honestly believe that this will do anything except embolden already enraged protesters. If this had been done instead of shooting them, maybe, but at this point I'm guessing this is more about regrouping. After all, you can much more easily take an occupied square than defend it. This is a good default position for a regime considering what next steps to take.

Do keep in mind that Saudi Arabi would likely annex Bahrain before they allowed what they see (and may well be) a Shiite uprising. From the perspective of the west, arab nations, europe AND asia, it would be seen as a risk vis a vis Iran.

As for the Kennedy connection, I don't understand your point, but I do agree that the Sunni/Shiite divide is going NOWHERE. This is not a disagreement that is new, and AFAIK, neither side has any intention of willingly backing down.
 
  • #844


Gokul43201 said:
And you've decided that they are noise, even without examining them?

I haven't expressed an opinion on such a probability, so this has nothing to do with anything I've said here.

Hooray, we found one authoritarian state in the ME with better womens' rights than Bangladesh (assuming this is true). That totally proves your point!

re bold: If I ever have a signiture, may I use that? I consider that accurate, and priceless.
 
  • #845
Not the wisest thing I've posted here - I could have easily done without the nastiness.
 
  • #846
Gokul43201 said:
It's not clear to me what exactly Hirsi Ali is proposing (but as is typical of a rapid-fire interview, I don't think there was quite enough time for her to explain herself at length), though I believe I get the gist of it. But if you listen carefully, you have, for instance...

Ayaan Hirsi Ali (4:08): "What we need to do is stop worrying about the Muslim Brotherhood."

Ehhh... if you listen real carefully, in the next sentence it’s perfectly clear what Ayaan Hirsi propose:
"I hope that the Egypt constitution has to be rewritten in such a way that there are safeguards against a Sharia state, or against the next autocracy."​

I agree 100% with this intelligent woman! :approve: Of course MB should be allowed in the Egyptian society and politics! That’s not the question!

The question is: Should the Egyptians roll out the "Red Carpet" for the next autocracy, or not?

(If MB is not interested in a Sharia autocracy, as you claim, this shouldn’t be a problem, right?? :-p)
 
  • #847
Gokul43201 said:
Not the wisest thing I've posted here - I could have easily done without the nastiness.

Fair enough... although that's probably what attracted me to it. Such a clean cut deserves recognition, in this, "Best of all possible worlds."
 
  • #848
DevilsAvocado said:
Ehhh... if you listen real carefully, in the next sentence it’s perfectly clear what Ayaan Hirsi propose:
"I hope that the Egypt constitution has to be rewritten in such a way that there are safeguards against a Sharia state, or against the next autocracy."​

I agree 100% with this intelligent woman! :approve:
So tell me exactly what it means to "hope" that something "has to be" a certain way? Is this a proposal for being passive, by hoping? Or a proposal to get involved and force an outcome that "has to be"? I wouldn't think you could have it both ways. But, as I mentioned earlier, I suppose Hirsi Ali would have been able to explain her proposal better were there more time in the interview.

Of course MB should be allowed in the Egyptian society and politics! That’s not the question!
I didn't think that was the issue. I thought the issue was one of whether or not such inclusion warranted certain levels of fear and worry.

The question is: Should the Egyptians roll out the "Red Carpet" for the next autocracy, or not?
I don't see how that is the question either.

(If MB is not interested in a Sharia autocracy, as you claim, this shouldn’t be a problem, right?? :-p)
I consider this not relevant to the issue I was addressing (edit: actually, that's not even true; I insist that it does not follow logically), but furthermore, I never actually made that point, to my recollection (if I did, and you show me where, I'd be happy to rewrite it more carefully).
 
  • #849
Galteeth said:
This might have come up in the thread before, but I think the key to all of this is information technology. Historically, it seems that new means of distributing information lead to changes in the political and social order. The printing press and glasnost in the USSR are the first examples that come to mine. It seems the internet has sparked a new way for young people in these countries to exchange and receive information.

You’ve got it!

The worst enemy for dictators, religious or not, is information. That’s why internet was/is taken down in both Egypt and Iran. The best friend for Hitler and his disciples was/is twisted propaganda.

Galteeth said:
I think better living conditions is obviously what they desire, but it also seems to be about having a say in their governments.

I bet my $ on the later...

Galteeth said:
And contrary to what many western talking heads are claiming, I have not seen any protestors calling for sharia law or a theocracy.

How about these two western talking heads (Irish & U.S.)?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmLsoyfuOTk
 
  • #850
Gokul43201 said:
I don't see how that is the question either.

I understand, but to me this is the simplest question in the world, i.e.:

Are you for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy in the new Egypt constitution?

Yes or No


(Not that our private opinions here on PF matter that much, but it’s always nice to know who you’re talking to. :wink:)
 
  • #851
DevilsAvocado said:
I understand, but to me this is the simplest question in the world, i.e.:

Are you for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy in the new Egypt constitution?

Yes or No
Yes! :biggrin:
(Not that our private opinions here on PF matter that much, but it’s always nice to know who you’re talking to. :wink:)
I'm strongly opposed to a Sharia based system of Law. I'm also strongly opposed to autocracies. But I'm not sure what it means to be for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy. Will I be pleased if the Egyptians install such a safeguard? Absolutely! Will I be disappointed or worried if they don't? Disappointed: yes; worried: perhaps. Would I like to see Western powers get involved, and through some system of carrots-and-sticks, bring about such a safeguard? Couldn't say without looking at the specifics of the approach.

Does that make my positions reasonably clear?
 
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  • #852
Gokul43201 said:
Yes! :biggrin:
I'm strongly opposed to a Sharia based system of Law. I'm also strongly opposed to autocracies. But I'm not sure what it means to be for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy. Will I be pleased if the Egyptians install such a safeguard? Absolutely! Will I be disappointed or worried if they don't? Disappointed: yes; worried: perhaps. Would I like to see Western powers get involved and through some system or carrots-and-sticks, bring about such a safeguard? Couldn't say without looking at the specifics of the approach.

Does that make my positions reasonably clear?

Ah! A new friend! :!)

 
  • #853
OK... even I'm confused! :rolleyes:
 
  • #854
What?? I couldn’t have said it better than Gokul!
 
  • #855
nismaratwork said:
Generally I'd agree with you, but Libya... I can be a very cold person, but Libya is hell for its people. I can't imagine something worse than Ghaddafi emerging... just another broken African nation, which Libya already is.

I am more sympathetic towards innocent people who are not or are not willing to participating in these anti-government riots but are affected. News media is mainly focused on these protesters who don't have any realistic goals or abilities to deal with their strong governments. I believe no one is going to win in these riots.
 
  • #856
rootX said:
... News media is mainly focused on these protesters who don't have any realistic goals or abilities to deal with their strong governments. I believe no one is going to win in these riots.

Welcome to reality.

5437759483_07fc137a8c_z.jpg
 
  • #857
Galteeth said:
Question: I have heard some talk that young people constitute a silent majority in these countries (Although many i saw in protest videos were not "young people". Are they a literal majority? If so, what accounts for these demographics?

550px-Egypt_population_pyramid_2005.svg.png


(Egypt)
 
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  • #858
Cool huh :smile:

400px-Muslims_and_Christians_united_for_Egypt.png
 
  • #859
rootX said:
I am more sympathetic towards innocent people who are not or are not willing to participating in these anti-government riots but are affected. News media is mainly focused on these protesters who don't have any realistic goals or abilities to deal with their strong governments. I believe no one is going to win in these riots.

I can't disagree with that, but in many cases it would seem that revolutions occur this way. I would have said the same before Mubarak was forced out, but now I'm not betting anymore. Libya is very unique, but it also takes just one man, woman or child to kill him with luck. Would you have thought the military would EVER be need to put down uprisings in Benghazi?!... I'm shocked that many people showed up.
 
  • #863
Greg Bernhardt said:
Morocco is now in the mix. this is simply amazing what has happened over the past few weeks!
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-morocco-unrest-20110221,0,4078326.story

Wow... Algeria and Morrocco tend to really put down protests HARD. I think that last Algerian uprising had around 100,000 casualties...


The world is changing faster than even modern media can track...

...I wonder what Israel is thinking as a nation right now; I'd be terrified.
 
  • #864
Gafhafi's son is on TV right now.
 
  • #865
What's he saying? I've found him to be an interesting character from his past public appearances and statements.
 
  • #866
Gokul43201 said:
What's he saying? I've found him to be an interesting character from his past public appearances and statements.

This is part transcript and memory:

"This is a speech from my heart. It is improvised and I speak in common Arabic, a Libyan accent."

He goes on to blame criminals from prisons
The protestors are "on drugs", "curious", or "imitating Egypt"
External forces such as foreign media is causing this
"Our Arab brothers are drinking tea, and laughing at us, destroying our country. We're the ones losing, not them. As for the criminals on the street, everyone knows about that... family and friends... they have weapons..."
"The story my brothers, is not just young people trying to imitate Egypt and Tunisia. You must be careful, Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia"

[That last I take as an EXTREME warning.]


"If any separation occurs in Libya, it will break into three different countries."

etc... etc...

He also claims that reports of deaths are greatly exagerated by foreign media to incite futher "chaos".

I'll keep at this... TBC
 
  • #867
"Where will be the center of Petrol? Will it be in Tripoli. or Belghazi? Who will run... the schools and hospitals. If there is a civil war in Libya..."

Essentially he's giving protesters an "out" if they give up now, under the guise of being manipulated and curious. Those "on drugs", would obviuosly be considered criminals and killed.

He also talks about the army not being trained as a police force, which is why they opened fire out of, "fear and anxiety".
 
  • #868
"We will emigrate from Libya, but we won't be able to manage the petrol... and it will take another 14 years to figure out who leads the country. Everyone wants to be a leader, a prince. We're not Egypt or Tunisia (repeats).

Let us speak honestly, we're all armed, even the criminals have tanks, machine guns and cannons. In this moment tanks are spreading around... people of Benghazi. Machine guns are in the midst of civilians. They have been stolen from military camps... this force trying to divide and destroy Libya... we will have civil war.

We will have no food, water. The contract worth 200 Billion dollar will leave. Who will come back to Libya?

Structures being built will be destroyed. Hospitals will be closed.

Today we are at a crossroads... either we say we're Libyans, this is our country... we want real reform... it is agreed anyway and will take place...

We ask now, as a final solution before it's too late. Five million people will take arms. We are not Egypt. We are not Tunisia. Everyone has access to weapons. We will not [mourn?] 48 (or 84?), but thousands. Blood will flow."
 
  • #869
"...Blood will flow in all the cities of Libya, and you will emigrate from Libya. Because petrol stock, and tomorrow all foreign companies will leave tomorrow. Petrol will stop. Come tomorrow there will be no petrol, there won't be any money."

"I say this to you for the last time, before we take up arms, before we take up arms and start a civil war... before this happens... before every Libyan has to defend themselves, before blood flows. I say tomorrow, let's make a historical initiative within 48 hours, 6 days... the Qu'ran... uh... let's find new civil rules and regulations to replace current rules. Let's take away silly punishments, and start... and international dialogue about the Libyan constitution."

"Instead of seperation, Libya can go back to local government... a limited central government..."

My take, is that he's saying protesters have 48 hours to cease and desist, or the military will use full force, and they will shut down basic services.

His second stick is chaos in Egypt and Tunisia.

The carrot is total change, to "spare blood", and change, "from the first republic to the second republic."

He promises a totally new regime.

"Or, Prepare all of you Libyans, prepare for civil war. Forget about petrol, forget about gas. The country will be chaos, there will be bombings... forget the children's education, forget their health..."

He talks about multiculturalism within Libya, and describes a hell of a separate set of coutnries. He continues to threaten civil war, and say that Italy will colonize them again, with force.

"We're only an hour from the American base in Crete... do you think that Europeans and Americans will not come by force? I'm telling you they will destroy us..."

"Europe and the west will not accept that petrol in Libya... the west will not accept... the export of drugs, terrorism and crime."

"2000 KM of Libyan coast is near Europe."

"Anyway, I've spoken to you now. There were many units that were uncovered, using drugs, money, illegal immigrants... You will see all the documents that prove this."

he speaks to Libyans living in foreign lands, implying the death of their children at home.

Edit: consolidation:"This is just a scenario that has been created to come and rule us, once we've killed each other, just like they did in Iraq, they will come and rule you."

He emphasis tribalism, chaos, with the implication that drunken criminals are out there. It's unclear if he's making a threat of slaughter and burning oil wells, or if he's outlining what he sees as a possible future.

IMO, he's giving a deadline before military force is used without restraint in the form of Bedouins and mercnaries who will be blamed as "drunken, drugged" "criminal immigrants."
 
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  • #870
Those poor people don't have a chance.
 
  • #871
Evo said:
Those poor people don't have a chance.

You're right, AFAICT this is a countdown to a massacre.
 
  • #872
Wow, this is all just mind-blowing! Thanks for that translation, Nismar. It's...terrifying.
 
  • #873
lisab said:
Wow, this is all just mind-blowing! Thanks for that translation, Nismar. It's...terrifying.

To be clear, not my translation, but CNN's, with a teensy bit of me where the translator clearly was struggling.

I agree on the terifying... Libyans must be absolutely horrified.
 
  • #874
DevilsAvocado said:
Welcome to reality.
...

It's wonderful!

intromap.jpg
 
  • #875
Evo said:
Those poor people don't have a chance.

BBC mentioned somewhere that Gaddafi's son reference to civil war might imply that half of the country is out of control. There are about 5 different articles on Libya, I couldn't find where it was mentioned.

His video:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12520586

That was one of the strangest political speeches I think I've ever sat through.

He was completely and utterly detached from the reality of what is going on in his country.

To put it bluntly, most Libyans will just treat it as gibberish - it was completely meaningless to them.

The idea that they're somehow going to sit down and have a national dialogue with a government that's brought in foreign mercenaries to shoot at them is laughable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2011/02/reporting_from_libya.html
Reporting from Libya is tricky at the best of times - clearly, the situation there right now is anything but.

BBC looks very cautious about providing updates on Libya due to difficulty in getting accurate and credible information.
 
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