What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[DevilsAvocado]

Well at least VP Biden and sec' of state Clinton are unconditionally supporting Israel. We will see how far Obama will stray.

If you make this to a "fight with Israel", you have already lost. Keep on fighting for real democracy instead, this will be much more rewarding.

 

[PhilKravitz]

this is silly. why should we give them or anyone else everything they want?

and I'm not exactly sure how you wish to tie this into the current situation in egypt. do you think a free and democratic egypt is a threat to israel and that we ought to support a dictatorship to unconditionally show loyalty to israel?

A free and democratic Egypt would support Palestine and that is a threat to Israel.

 

[Proton Soup]

A free and democratic Egypt would support Palestine and that is a threat to Israel.

perhaps you have not been watching recent events and the release of the "Palestine Papers" by aljazeera. the palestine authority has been bending over backwards, practically groveling in their concessions to israel, while being rebuffed the entire time.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

A free and democratic Egypt would support Palestine and that is a threat to Israel.

That is only your personal speculation. You don’t know that, you can’t know that, there haven’t been any free elections, settling this question.

The Muslim Brotherhood has only 25% of the potential voters.


EDIT:
If you by "free and democratic Egypt" mean an Islamic one party state, financed by Ayatollahs abroad, then you might be right.

 

[nismaratwork]

I don't get the sense that there is a Palestinian issue anymore, except in the minds of humanitarians. For better or worse, I think that ship has sailed now that the larger region is unstable.

 

[nismaratwork]

One man's violence is another man's fight for freedom.

George Washington killed many people.

That's the justification used by terrorists, revolutionaries, tax evaders and heroes; in short it means nothing out of context.

This is really one in a string of posts you're making here that aren't necessarily "against the rules", but they're also pure crap as DevilsAvocado and Proton Soup keep having to point out. Why don't you start to post some support along with your claims of what a regime that NOBODY can predict, based on ongoing events who's outcome... NOBODY CAN PREDICT.

 

[OmCheeto]

Yippie! More Wikileaks!

http://213.251.145.96/cable/2009/04/09CAIRO746.html"
Regarding a meeting of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullenn with the Egyptian General Intelligence Service Chief Omar Soliman(sic), now Vice President of Egypt.

The memo makes Suleiman out to be a good guy, given the myriad of things going on in the region:
Iran funneling $25 million dollars a [STRIKE]year[/STRIKE] month to terrorist organizations.
Iran attempting to funnel arms into Gaza.
Borders Sudan. Pirates!

 

[nismaratwork]

Yippie! More Wikileaks!

http://213.251.145.96/cable/2009/04/09CAIRO746.html"
Regarding a meeting of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullenn with the Egyptian General Intelligence Service Chief Omar Soliman(sic), now Vice President of Egypt.

The memo makes Suleiman out to be a good guy, given the myriad of things going on in the region:
Iran funneling $25 million dollars a [STRIKE]year[/STRIKE] month to terrorist organizations.
Iran attempting to funnel arms into Gaza.
Borders Sudan. Pirates!

I literally read your post, then pulled a double-take on the Iranian money funneling. I mean, you always have fun posts, but damn. At this point, I'd be thrilled to see anything that doesn't lead to Egyptians murdering Egytians for Egypt... it would be terrible for the region and a tragedy. Egypt has a chance to set a positive example, if no bad actors seize the reigns of power of course.

 

[Proton Soup]

that assange has some conveniently-timed releases. you think he's CIA?

um, yeah. i was reading somewhere (there's so much of it) that there had been concern in the US about the end of Mubarak's reign and the transition of power, presumably to his son. this Soliman guy would certainly fill the US policy (assuming policy hasn't changed) objective. it's a bit like GHW Bush coming to power. the problem is, he's still part of the old regime, and the people there are fed up with business as usual. so I'm not sure he will be accepted. however, his role may be as a transitional presiding officer if Mubarak is indeed planning to run off and retire to some villa. but some type of announcement would have to be made ensuring elections for a new president before things would cool down.

 

[WhoWee]

Has anyone found any information regarding Mubarak's financial holdings?

 

[OmCheeto]

I literally read your post, then pulled a double-take on the Iranian money funneling. I mean, you always have fun posts, but damn. At this point, I'd be thrilled to see anything that doesn't lead to Egyptians murdering Egytians for Egypt... it would be terrible for the region and a tragedy. Egypt has a chance to set a positive example, if no bad actors seize the reigns of power of course.

I tried to do it from memory, but went back to the memo to check my facts. I also did a double take on the amount of money Iran is funneling into the region.

One doesn't have to have too great an imagination to figure out Iran's motive. But I'd love to see some wikileaks out of Iran. It might be a good thing for Egyptians to know the truth about who's on their side before making any decisions.

Another http://213.251.145.96/cable/2007/05/07CAIRO1417.html" states that whoever replaces Mubarek will likely adopt an anti-American tone in his initial public rhetoric. Though the memo is nearly 4 years old now, and much has changed since then.

 

[ThomasT]

This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

I don't understand the references to Israel, Palestine, etc. Does the unrest in Egypt have anything to do with that situation?

As nismaratwork has noted, the plight of Palestinians seems to be pretty much a non-issue for most everybody except Palestinians. The same might be said for most humanitarian issues I suppose.

 

[OmCheeto]

This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

I don't understand the references to Israel, Palestine, etc. Does the unrest in Egypt have anything to do with that situation?

As nismaratwork has noted, the plight of Palestinians seems to be pretty much a non-issue for most everybody except Palestinians. The same might be said for most humanitarian issues I suppose.

Ha ha! It would take me a week to type up an opinion on the matter. Let me give you my readers digest version:

It all started out with this couple named Adam and Eve. Then things took a turn for the worse.

 

[Evo]

It doesn't sound to me, that the people that are rioting will accept an appointment by Mubarik of someone in his cabinet. I could be wrong.

But I don't know what they think is going to happen. I don't see a magic wand to cure their ills. Perhaps the best they can do is accept the appointment, now that their state of mind is known perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues. But in reality, how much can be done quickly?

 

[ThomasT]

... perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues.

What are the issues?

 

[ThomasT]

Ha ha! It would take me a week to type up an opinion on the matter.

Any well researched opinion is welcomed. It seems that this will still be a hot topic a week from now.

 

[nismaratwork]

It doesn't sound to me, that the people that are rioting will accept an appointment by Mubarik of someone in his cabinet. I could be wrong.

But I don't know what they think is going to happen. I don't see a magic wand to cure their ills. Perhaps the best they can do is accept the appointment, now that their state of mind is known perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues. But in reality, how much can be done quickly?

Unless every media report is wrong, you're right.

For the second part, to respond to you and ThomasT: You're talking about 30 years of MANY different issues, and I don't claim to know or understand them all. Some I know, but that you probably do as well are:

-The Muslim Brotherhood LOATHES Mubarak. Personally they loathe him because he took them from a powerful militant group with political clout (much like Hamas), and in the course of killing, imprisoning, and finally denying them a political voice at allv... into a kind of charity and hate group. True, the MB is more moderate in its rank and file now, but its leaders (those that are left) are very much like Ayman Al Zawahiri (Egyptian). There is no denying them a voice in a new government if it is free, but Egypt is NOT Iran, and these are not young people looking to imitate Iran.

-Mubarak allowed for some financial reforms which led to the rapid emergence of a well educated middle class...

-...who are still paid like dirt and treated like dirt if they speak up.

-The police/Security Forces are LOATHED, especially the 'Thugs'

-The army is at the center of Egyptian life, and I'd argue it has been for millenia. The army is seen as heroic, having recaptured the Suez for a time, and because the only time in about 60% of Egyptian living memory.. the only time the military was dispatched was to deal with the hated police.

Beyond that... you're talking about a history of wars and despotism, but also highly advanced society which is quite populous and educated. People have suddenly not just LEARNED how others live, they just turn on their cell phones and can WATCH it in HD video.

Beyond that, you have this immense anger that's been building, but to release it at ALL meant imprisonment, torture, death, or the need to flee.

Oh yes... and Tunisia, which is considered a small and unimportant nation next to Egypt, yet their people exerted their will. There is so much money in Egypt, and so much waste and hoarding of that money... and frankly genuine economic troubles.

Think of it as the flash-mob of protest.

edit: I'd add that while Iran is doubtless thrilled to see Israel and the USA's major strategic ally suffer, it's a very myopic view for them to take. If Israel feels truly threatened, and that they may once again have to seriously militarize the Egyptian border, they may well decide to deal with the Iranian Nuclear programs first and harshly. There's no good outcome here, except some kind of interim government to get through to new elections, and the emergence of a strong central leadership that pacifies the public and stages incremental reforms.

 

[OmCheeto]

It doesn't sound to me, that the people that are rioting will accept an appointment by Mubarik of someone in his cabinet. I could be wrong.

But I don't know what they think is going to happen. I don't see a magic wand to cure their ills. Perhaps the best they can do is accept the appointment, now that their state of mind is known perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues. But in reality, how much can be done quickly?

Al Jazeera is reporting that the protesters will not stop until Mubarek resigns.

They are also reporting that people are stocking up on food, water, and cash.

I would imagine that with the way the military and the protesters seem to have been getting along, a top general would be my best guess as a most probable new leader. But after that, as ElBaradei has said, it's up to Egyptians to create a new Egypt.

 

[nismaratwork]

Al Jazeera is reporting that the protesters will not stop until Mubarek resigns.

They are also reporting that people are stocking up on food, water, and cash.

I would imagine that with the way the military and the protesters seem to have been getting along, a top general would be my best guess as a most probable new leader. But after that, as ElBaradei has said, it's up to Egyptians to create a new Egypt.

I bet on a general, but that's not necessarily a bad thing; Egypt always draws from its military.

 

[Proton Soup]

http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/01/29/nr.lemon.abdelaziz.protest.cnn?iref=allsearch

 

[Evo]

What are the issues?

They say unemployment.

 

[OmCheeto]

The following video was posted about a year ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfgR7l3rFxs

It's a bit long, and it's truthiness is questionable, but it's worth watching as a precursor to this weeks events.

In 2005, Mubarek apparently made a constitutional modification that made it virtually impossible for anyone other than himself to win the presidency.

 

[Evo]

In 2005, Mubarek apparently made a constitutional modification that made it virtually impossible for anyone other than himself to win the presidency.

Sadly, this is how it is in many of these countries, you can vote all you want...

 

[Ygggdrasil]

This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

As with many political questions, the answer is the same: it's the economy, stupid! The global economic crisis has caused prices, especially food prices, to rise, and, as in many other parts of the globe, unemployment is an issue. These pressing economic troubles, combined with longstanding issues with corruption of the Mubarak regime, its failure to reform itself and a general view that the government has been largely ineffective at helping the people, have led to the protests calling for Mubarak to step down. Anthony Shadid, who wrote a recent piece on the unrest in the Arab world, said in an interview:

"But Tunisia offered a path of change that we haven't really seen in the region lately. [...] What Tunisia said is that we're having a kind of a popular uprising that is motivated by economic grievances. They later turned into political demands. But it was popular frustration, and frustration with their government's inability to provide for better lives that, in ways, trigger that protest.

And I think that's - that formula, that idea of economic grievances, frustration, anger, corruption and then political demand is something - is a formula that we see in a lot of Arab countries at this point." (transcript)​

In democratic nations, economic troubles have led to regime changes (e.g. in the US, kicking the Republicans out in 2008, then kicking out the Democrats back out of Congress in 2010). Unfortunately, Mubarak has essentially rigged the elections in Egypt so that peacefully kicking the current regime out of government is not a practical option.

I don't understand the references to Israel, Palestine, etc. Does the unrest in Egypt have anything to do with that situation?

An important US/Israeli strategy in the Israel/Palestine conflict has been the blockade of Gaza. In addition to stopping weapons materials from entering the Gaza strip, the US and Israel have also been using this blockade to allow only limited aid shipments as a way to try to weaken Hamas, which controls the region. The contrast in Israel's treatment of the people of the West Bank (represented by the more moderate Palestinian Authority) versus the treatment of the people in Gaza sends the message that electing a more moderate leaders is the only way to improve living conditions in Gaza. Israel is very serous about maintaining this blockade of Gaza as evidenced by their raids on aid flotillas sent to Gaza last May.

Egypt shares a land border with Gaza and is therefore important in maintaining this blockade of Gaza. Mubarak has cooperated with the US and Israel in closing the Egypt-Gaza border. Should a Egypt's government change its position and open the border to Gaza, the situation would change dramatically.

 

[ThomasT]

As with many political questions, the answer is the same: it's the economy, stupid!

Ok, I can understand that. It had to 'boil over' at some time, and it just happened to be now.

Regarding the Palestinians in Gaza I think that they're effectively nonexexistent as far as the rest of the world is concerned.

 

[apeiron]

As with many political questions, the answer is the same: it's the economy, stupid! The global economic crisis has caused prices, especially food prices, to rise, and, as in many other parts of the globe, unemployment is an issue.

Food inflation is running at 17% per annum in Egypt. And is running away around the world of course.

Given food is half the weekly budget for the world's poor, compared to 10% for its rich, you can expect food insecurity to cause political instability in many countries as it did during the last food/oil price spike of 2008.

There was food rioting in Algeria only a fortnight ago.

"We are entering a danger territory," said Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, on Jan. 5. The price of a basket of cereals, oils, dairy, meat and sugar that reflects global consumption patterns has risen steadily for six months, and has just broken through the previous record, set during the last food panic in June, 2008.

"There is still room for prices to go up much higher," Abbassian added, "if for example the dry conditions in Argentina become a drought, and if we start having problems with winter kill in the Northern Hemisphere for the wheat crops." After the loss of at least a third of the Russian and Ukrainina grain crop in last summer's heat wave and the devastating floods in Australia and Pakistan, there's no margin for error left .

It was Russia and India banning grain exports in order to keep domestic prices down that set the food prices on the international market soaring. Most countries cannot insulate themselves from this global price rise, because they depend on imports for a lot of domestic consumption.

http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article232437.ece

 

[nismaratwork]

<SNIP>

An important US/Israeli strategy in the Israel/Palestine conflict has been the blockade of Gaza. In addition to stopping weapons materials from entering the Gaza strip, the US and Israel have also been using this blockade to deny aid shipments as a way to punish the residents of the Gaza strip for electing Hamas. The contrast in Israel's treatment of the people of the West Bank (represented by the more moderate Palestinian Authority) versus the treatment of the people in Gaza sends the message that electing a more moderate leaders is the only way to improve living conditions in Gaza. Israel is very serous about maintaining this blockade of Gaza as evidenced by their raids on aid flotillas sent to Gaza last May.

Egypt shares a land border with Gaza and is therefore important in maintaining this blockade of Gaza. Mubarak has cooperated with the US and Israel in closing the Egypt-Gaza border. Should a Egypt's government change its position and open the border to Gaza, the situation would change dramatically.

You're comparing the ability of the most populous arab nation to revolt, with Palestinian revolt? The Egyptian military may not want to kill other Egyptians, but the same issue doesn't exist between Israel and the Palestinian diaspora.

Finally... as I said... I believe that the chance for peace in the region, or a two state solution is dead. Arab autocrats that use that wedge issue as part of their regime control have to realize... that may not be cutting it anymore. The Palestinians are busy eating themselves alive, and you can argue what's causing that, but like Somalia... it's just "hands off". The Palestinians don't have the numbers or free access to overcome an entrenched set of military partitions.

With Iran scaring the hell out of the Arab nations, and now the idea of internal populist revolt, I think the Palestinians will simply continue to contained. Yes, it would be disastrous for Israel to have to return to pre-treaty defense levels on the Egyptian border, but there are technologies such as unmanned drones now which make that kind of control less manpower-intensive. Finally... the Israelis will defend themselves, and every time arab nations have gone that route they've lost land and had to spend decades ransoming SOME of that land.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

The obvious is obvious. If you think of Mubarak’s regime as a 'mild' form of Nazi Germany – FOR 30 YEARS!

Massive corruption, harassment, violence, torture, rapes, biased trials, a privileged upper class getting richer and richer, while the poor gets poorer and poorer, a 'president' that makes it illegal to dethrone him, etc, etc...

I don’t remember which reporter it was, but he described what he saw with his own eyes (a 'normal day' before the protests) – a young woman was arrested by the police, on unclear grounds, they took her a little aside, and then THE POLICE RAPED HER IN PUBLIC!

Wouldn’t you be mad as hell?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

CNN – Words from a 25 year old protester:

"This is a revolution of the people, NOT the Muslim group! We want the support from President Obama!"​

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Al Jazeera reports that 34 members of the Muslim Brotherhood were released from custody as their guards abandoned their posts.

The Guardian reported that Mohammed ElBaradei has been mandated by the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups to negotiate a temporary "national salvation government".


*** Copters and FIGHTER JETS are flying low over Tahrir Square ***

 

[WhoWee]

CNN – Words from a 25 year old protester:

"This is a revolution of the people, NOT the Muslim group! We want the support from President Obama!"​

IMO - this would be a fair response to young people in Egypt (median age 24).
Asking support from President Obama is not the solution to your problem.

You have high inflation and higher unemployment. President Obama supports you from the heart (of this I'm certain) but he doesn't have any money to give and he can't create jobs for you.

You need to find a leader amongst your people who wants peace and prosperity in the region and the world - not a terror group or radicals.

You need to find a way to solve your own problems. Giza marks the center of the world, the Suez Canal is the oil artery, and you have a strong military to protect you. Find a peaceful solution and work with your military leaders.

In this peaceful solution, I'm certain you'll find President Obama a true friend.
Again - IMO.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

You have high inflation and higher unemployment. President Obama supports you from the heart (of this I'm certain) but he doesn't have any money to give and he can't create jobs for you.

Maybe a misunderstanding: IMO, the only thing they want from Obama is phone call to Mubarak, telling him – it’s over.

But this is a very 'delicate situation' and I’m sure Obama will do the 'right thing'... hopefully.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

CNN: Ahmed Osama, the Muslim Brotherhood – "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei" has our support"

 

[nismaratwork]

CNN: Ahmed Osama, the Muslim Brotherhood – "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei" has our support"

If the Tea Party claimed to have the support of X member of congress, would you want to check with that member of congress first? Maybe "support" means, 'in a new government, I won't hunt you down and kill you, and you'll get seats.' I admit, that doesn't thrill me, but there just isn't the fundamentalist culture in Egypt to support Islamic rule.

Will Egypt be INFLUENCED by necessity?... It's hard to imagine that it wouldn't. That said, what has the MB done in these protests except to act as a voice of reason? Like the Mulllahs in Iran, I think they realize that they have nothing to gain by trying to make this an Islamic revolution, until the movement finishes its course.

THEN they might try to take over, but I seriously doubt that the same people who want their SMS and better wages will be placated by religious dogma.

 

[nismaratwork]

IMO - this would be a fair response to young people in Egypt (median age 24).
Asking support from President Obama is not the solution to your problem.

You have high inflation and higher unemployment. President Obama supports you from the heart (of this I'm certain) but he doesn't have any money to give and he can't create jobs for you.

You need to find a leader amongst your people who wants peace and prosperity in the region and the world - not a terror group or radicals.

You need to find a way to solve your own problems. Giza marks the center of the world, the Suez Canal is the oil artery, and you have a strong military to protect you. Find a peaceful solution and work with your military leaders.

In this peaceful solution, I'm certain you'll find President Obama a true friend.
Again - IMO.

I... agree. Completely.

DA: The US, Obama or anyone else (except arguably W... ugh) has the wisdom to wait and see what's going to happen. Given our previous diplomatic stance with Egypt, the re-evaluation of aid, and the open call to listen to his people is a HUGE slap in the face to Mubarak. Anything more in public, and he could very well try to make this about the US.

Besides, we really can't help; I don't mean won't, I mean can't.