What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[WhoWee]

If the Tea Party claimed to have the support of X member of congress, would you want to check with that member of congress first? Maybe "support" means, 'in a new government, I won't hunt you down and kill you, and you'll get seats.' I admit, that doesn't thrill me, but there just isn't the fundamentalist culture in Egypt to support Islamic rule.

Will Egypt be INFLUENCED by necessity?... It's hard to imagine that it wouldn't. That said, what has the MB done in these protests except to act as a voice of reason? Like the Mulllahs in Iran, I think they realize that they have nothing to gain by trying to make this an Islamic revolution, until the movement finishes its course.

THEN they might try to take over, but I seriously doubt that the same people who want their SMS and better wages will be placated by religious dogma.

I think the median age of 24 is the key to peace and prosperity. Young people interested in the world and engaged in social media don't want to starve in worn torn streets, nor do they seek the harsh restrictions of Islamic rule. They need to find a voice and they need a plan. Mubarak himself would be wise to listen to their voice and help them.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

THEN they might try to take over, but I seriously doubt that the same people who want their SMS and better wages will be placated by religious dogma.

Completely agree.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Besides, we really can't help; I don't mean won't, I mean can't.

Are you sure you have thought this thru? Where do you see the young people of Egypt screaming for money...??

AFAICT, at this moment they only want to get rid of Mubarak.

The U.S military 'aid' annually is USD 1.3 billion on a total budget of USD 5.85 billion (22%).

Next 'problem': Their large number of main battle tanks is U.S M1 Abrams, and the backbone of the Egyptian Air Force is the U.S F-16. What do you think will happen to this 'equipment' if the USA don’t want to 'play' anymore...?

I’m not saying that this is the 'smartest move' at the moment – but surely one phone-call from Obama is all it takes to permanently remove Hosni Mubarak. The military is the real power.

And this is all the young people are asking for, not money.

 

[lisab]

Completely agree.

Me too! Aawww, group hug, everyone ...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I think the median age of 24 is the key to peace and prosperity.

Completely agree.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Me too! Aawww, group hug, everyone ...

Yeah, group hug and let’s pray to "what suits you" and keep our fingers crossed...

 

[nismaratwork]

Are you sure you have thought this thru? Where do you see the young people of Egypt screaming for money...??

AFAICT, at this moment they only want to get rid of Mubarak.

The U.S military 'aid' annually is USD 1.3 billion on a total budget of USD 5.85 billion (22%).

Next 'problem': Their large number of main battle tanks is U.S M1 Abrams, and the backbone of the Egyptian Air Force is the U.S F-16. What do you think will happen to this 'equipment' if the USA don’t want to 'play' anymore...?

I’m not saying that this is the 'smartest move' at the moment – but surely one phone-call from Obama is all it takes to permanently remove Hosni Mubarak. The military is the real power.

And this is all the young people are asking for, not money.

I think you need to understand a difference between seeing your social position rise, but your salary stay 3rd world, and "wanting money". It's more accurate to say that these young people want respect, a voice, and pay to go along with realities of a VERY modern and wealthy Arab nation.

Beyond that, it doesn't really matter that they have some of our tanks and planes... the army simply is NOT going to need them. You don't need an M1 Abrams to kill people who aren't also in tanks. What they ARE doing, is protecting museums, key infrastructure, and more. The police, security forces, thugs and republican guard are the ones who are absurdly violent; the military is a respected center of Egyptian life.

It would certainly be yet another embarrassment for the USA to have a former ally stocked with "made in the USA" weapons systems, but in terms of the threat the ones sold to Egypt pose to US and Israeli forces... it's minimal. Without getting into painful details of logistics, training, and more, the Egyptian army can definitely hold and secure Egypt, but that's it.

Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

 

[nismaratwork]

Me too! Aawww, group hug, everyone ...

*hug*..
...
...

Have you been smoking weed and eating pizza-cookies again?! Let me ask you lisa... have you ever SEEN the documentary 'Reefer Madness'? Murder! Lewd Behaviour! Crappy Acting!... all ills of marijuana.

Still, I guess you just have a problem there green-bean.


Oh, and yes... group hug back at you and DA.

 

[Proton Soup]

english website of the Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.ikhwanweb.com/

 

[Borek]

Completely off topic. We were planning a trip to Egypt in February, and we spend substantial time on planning back in October, but we couldn't find two week trip that would fit Marzena's schedule

 

[AlephZero]

Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

Now, let me guess where Israel gets those sort of toys from.

And let me guess if it pays the full market price or not.

 

[mugaliens]

Completely off topic. We were planning a trip to Egypt in February, and we spend substantial time on planning back in October, but we couldn't find two week trip that would fit Marzena's schedule

I am truly sorry to hear of your misfortune, Borek! Egypt is such a wonderful place! If it's any sort of consolation, I hear both Pyongyang and Tehran are nice this time of year.

Seriously, my friend, as a former member of the U.S. military who frequented multiple war zones throughout my time in service, I tended to avoid them during vacations, and for obvious reasons.

If you want excitement and adventure, join the U.S. Marines!

If you'd like a nice, relaxing vacation, head to Hawaii or an island territory of either the U.S. or another stable country.

Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

While the aircraft themselves would clean up just fine, it's far more than just the aircraft. It's also the armament, the training, and the global command and control. It would wind up being a half-day event.

 

[nismaratwork]

I am truly sorry to hear of your misfortune, Borek! Egypt is such a wonderful place! If it's any sort of consolation, I hear both Pyongyang and Tehran are nice this time of year.

Seriously, my friend, as a former member of the U.S. military who frequented multiple war zones throughout my time in service, I tended to avoid them during vacations, and for obvious reasons.

If you want excitement and adventure, join the U.S. Marines!

If you'd like a nice, relaxing vacation, head to Hawaii or an island territory of either the U.S. or another stable country.



While the aircraft themselves would clean up just fine, it's far more than just the aircraft. It's also the armament, the training, and the global command and control. It would wind up being a half-day event.

Oh, no argument at all, although I think you're being generous with, "half day"... the Egyptians are neither stupid or suicidal. I understand clearly that an American soldier in general represents a lot of money and time in their training and maintaining skills, and more so in the USAF where if you want to fly.. well... there are only so many jets. You know all of this anyway, but it's worth saying.

DA: I get it, the US sells a lot of arms, but for quite a long time now selling to Egypt has been a wise choice, and may still be. I find it hard to imagine that Egypt would be in anything except chaos if Egypt didn't have such a well organized and equipped army.

As for Israel... yes, of course, and they are, like Germany, major training partners with the US military (making their air force, and especially mounted infantry some of the best in the world per capita, begin modeled on the USAF). Again, I'm not understanding how this is news or new... the same is true of Iraq, and many nations. I know you don't believe that if the US were not selling these weapons systems, that others countries (eurofighter lol) would not take up the slack.

Borek: I would not be surprised to see Egypt come back from this over time, and be a better and safer country in the end. A country is ultimately guided by its people, and the Egyptian people are very tough, but also very civilized. You can see, they're protecting their history, their infrastructure and government buildings. Egypt really is breathtaking... especially the great rivers and the Suez Canal.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I think you need to understand a difference between seeing your social position rise, but your salary stay 3rd world, and "wanting money". It's more accurate to say that these young people want respect, a voice, and pay to go along with realities of a VERY modern and wealthy Arab nation.

Beyond that, it doesn't really matter that they have some of our tanks and planes... the army simply is NOT going to need them. You don't need an M1 Abrams to kill people who aren't also in tanks. What they ARE doing, is protecting museums, key infrastructure, and more. The police, security forces, thugs and republican guard are the ones who are absurdly violent; the military is a respected center of Egyptian life.

It would certainly be yet another embarrassment for the USA to have a former ally stocked with "made in the USA" weapons systems, but in terms of the threat the ones sold to Egypt pose to US and Israeli forces... it's minimal. Without getting into painful details of logistics, training, and more, the Egyptian army can definitely hold and secure Egypt, but that's it.

Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

DA: I get it, the US sells a lot of arms, but for quite a long time now selling to Egypt has been a wise choice, and may still be. I find it hard to imagine that Egypt would be in anything except chaos if Egypt didn't have such a well organized and equipped army.

As for Israel... yes, of course, and they are, like Germany, major training partners with the US military (making their air force, and especially mounted infantry some of the best in the world per capita, begin modeled on the USAF). Again, I'm not understanding how this is news or new... the same is true of Iraq, and many nations. I know you don't believe that if the US were not selling these weapons systems, that others countries (eurofighter lol) would not take up the slack.

Nismar, I won’t reply ... just put it on the "Bad Hair Day Account" ...

 

[mugaliens]

If that's a picture of Egypt...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... Obama wouldn’t have the slightest clue on what to do ...

 

[OmCheeto]

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/2011129132243891877.html"

"People here are suffering much more than Egypt or Tunisia but you don't see it. They keep their mouths shut because they don't want to be locked up for 10 years," said a graduate medical student, surfing the web at an internet cafe.

Sitting next to him, a young lady finished updating her Facebook page and chatting with friends online - one of thousands of young Syrians adept at using proxy servers to get around the official ban on Facebook.

I've been internet chatting with people from the middle east for at least 5 years. It took me a while before I realized that they could not speak their minds.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I've been internet chatting with people from the middle east for at least 5 years. It took me a while before I realized that they could not speak their minds.

That is interesting... where do you live, USA? Could this be an 'effect' of 'media coverage'...


(If you live in China this is a no-brainer – they have 'erased' Egypt from internet! )

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Is this Arabic or English...??


()

 

[Astronuc]

Rich, Poor and a Rift Exposed by Unrest
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/africa/31classwar.htm

. . . .
Over the past several days, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians — from indigent fruit peddlers and doormen to students and engineers, even wealthy landlords — poured into the streets together to denounce President Hosni Mubarak and battle his omnipresent security police. Then, on Friday night, the police pulled out of Egypt’s major cities abruptly, and tensions between rich and poor exploded.

Looters from Cairo’s vast shantytowns attacked gleaming suburban shopping malls, wild rumors swirled of gunfights at the bridges and gates to the most expensive neighborhoods and some of their residents turned wistful about Mr. Mubarak and his authoritarian rule.
. . . .

A people divided won't provide a stable foundation for a peaceful society.

Meanwhile -

Opposition Rallies to ElBaradei as Military Reinforces in Cairo
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/middleeast/31-egypt.html

Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian Nobel Prize winner who says he has a mandate from Egypt's opposition to negotiate President Hosni Mubarak's withdrawal from power and the creation of a transitional government, urged the US to turn its back on long-time ally Mr. Mubarak in a series of television interviews earlier today.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Midd...i-to-US-Take-Egypt-s-Mubarak-off-life-support

 

[nismaratwork]

Nic Robertson is reporting for CNN that a military APC was chasing protesters and firing their 50 cal overhead to scare them. This is very different, and now the police are coming back.

I wouldn't even guess what this means, but I do not think it bodes well.

 

[WhoWee]

Nic Robertson is reporting for CNN that a military APC was chasing protesters and firing their 50 cal overhead to scare them. This is very different, and now the police are coming back.

I wouldn't even guess what this means, but I do not think it bodes well.

It seems there are two distinct groups of people on the street - people engaged in the political movement and people hoping to loot or vandalize. If the military engages with looters and vandals - it's going to look as though they are attacking the political protest. The police need to deal with criminals.

 

[nismaratwork]

It seems there are two distinct groups of people on the street - people engaged in the political movement and people hoping to loot or vandalize. If the military engages with looters and vandals - it's going to look as though they are attacking the political protest. The police need to deal with criminals.

Well, the Egyptian police are too hated, being mixed with the security forces and riot squads (called "Thugs") to be tolerated right now. If you have that vacuum, then suddenly the army HAS to protect people and property (from that other group), and I believe that is what's happening.

The thing is, what happens if that APC accidentally runs someone over, or they're overwhelmed by rioters (not protesters)? I'll tell you what, they're soldiers and they may well not fire on their own people to control them, but to save themselves from a mob?... any soldier worth their training is going to try and live. Once that line is crossed, where the army and the people lose communication and the army is perceived, not as a source of stability, but a threat... anything could happen.

There is a fog of war here, even if there isn't a war, and every day that goes by with soldiers doing something they are NOT meant to do (corral their own people and families!) and probably don't WANT to do... is another day that something can go wrong.

If these protests go from tens of thousands, to hundreds, and the army is in place and needs to attack or retreat, either choice is going to be devastating to a crowd. If the crowd decides to throw caution to the wind, well... tanks and APCs are not designed for police work. I'm yet to see a few hundred people climb on a tank in the Negev and start throwing in tear-gas, burning rags, and molotov cocktails. The main gun is NOT AP, it's AM... so you can kill a lot of people, but it's not sustainable.

I really feel terribly for those soldiers (yes, and the protesters too)... this has to end soon or the chance for violence without intent is just amplified.

 

[OmCheeto]

That is interesting... where do you live, USA? Could this be an 'effect' of 'media coverage'...

(If you live in China this is a no-brainer – they have 'erased' Egypt from internet! )

Yes, I live in the USA. And I'm not sure what you are implying by "effect of media coverage".

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/2011129132243891877.html"

But as the young doctor put it, looking up at the cameras inside the internet cafe: "Everything here is under control, even if it looks open."

I think they have had some version of the "Patriot Act" going on for quite some time.

Only they don't get arrested and put in jail for plotting to blow up buildings or kill people, they are arrested and disappear for saying the equivalent of "Obama is a socialist nazi and should be voted out." I don't believe I ever heard any of them speaking of their leaders either in a positive or negative way. I actually don't remember them even mentioning them.

I probably shouldn't have used the word "chatting", as we were all posting in a science forum as we are doing here. "Chatting" is what we do on Sundays.

And they were from Amman Jordan btw. At least they said they were. Might have been just a poser from http://www.sln.org.uk/geography/images/Jordan/19.%20Amman%20B%20school%20students.JPG" .

 

[Proton Soup]

http://www.accuracy.org/an-open-letter-to-president-barack-obama/

An Open Letter to President Barack Obama
January 30, 2011 By journalist
Share

Dear President Obama:

As political scientists, historians, and researchers in related fields who have studied the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy, we the undersigned believe you have a chance to move beyond rhetoric to support the democratic movement sweeping over Egypt. As citizens, we expect our president to uphold those values.

For thirty years, our government has spent billions of dollars to help build and sustain the system the Egyptian people are now trying to dismantle. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in Egypt and around the world have spoken. We believe their message is bold and clear: Mubarak should resign from office and allow Egyptians to establish a new government free of his and his family’s influence. It is also clear to us that if you seek, as you said Friday “political, social, and economic reforms that meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people,” your administration should publicly acknowledge those reforms will not be advanced by Mubarak or any of his adjutants.

There is another lesson from this crisis, a lesson not for the Egyptian government but for our own. In order for the United States to stand with the Egyptian people it must approach Egypt through a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism of geostrategy. On Friday you rightly said that “suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.” For that reason we urge your administration to seize this chance, turn away from the policies that brought us here, and embark on a new course toward peace, democracy and prosperity for the people of the Middle East. And we call on you to undertake a comprehensive review of US foreign policy on the major grievances voiced by the democratic opposition in Egypt and all other societies of the region.

egyptletter.blogspot.com

Institutional affiliations are listed for identification purposes only. Views reflected in this letter are those of the individual signatories.

also, an acceptable source: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bab...erican-academics-urge-obama-oust-mubarak.html

 

[Lacy33]

http://www.accuracy.org/an-open-letter-to-president-barack-obama/

EXSQUEEZE ME!
Lacy Lou Who, Grinch University

thank you

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Yes, I live in the USA. And I'm not sure what you are implying by "effect of media coverage".

Well, I was just 'reflecting' on the fact that you have, during the last 5 years, become clear over the fact that most people in the Middle East live under 'dictatorial conditions' – by 'direct' contact.

I can’t be 100% sure, but my guess is that most Swedes that watch the news or reads a newspaper, have for >15 years been very clear on the 'rough situation' for 'everyday' people in the Middle East. Intifadas and the Gulf War 'opened the eyes' on most...

There have been others (that I know are from the USA) in this thread that doesn’t have a clue on why the people in Egypt are so angry...

Note: This is not any 'criticism' on you, U.S media, or the USA; we are much closer and have many Iraq refugees.

 

[Evo]

http://www.accuracy.org/an-open-letter-to-president-barack-obama/

That's not an acceptable source, but since it's just a *letter* to the President, I'll allow it. I'm sure that there are many letters to the President, so we don't need to start posting them all here.

 

[Proton Soup]

That's not an acceptable source, but since it's just a *letter* to the President, I'll allow it. I'm sure that there are many letters to the President, so we don't need to start posting them all here.

well, it had Chomsky in there. thanks for keeping it in any case.

and here is a piece from on the ground events a couple of days ago. includes reports of looting by police at the museum.

http://mondoweiss.net/2011/01/turkey-is-a-model.html

 

[WhoWee]

You’re alone on PF, and among most global news channels, in making this interpretation. Could you please quote the exact words from the Presidents where he clearly states he’s against Mubarak, and endorsing the people in the streets to continue the violence?

It seems that President Obama's words - over the past 2 years and last week - might have a degree of uncertainty?my bold


"Proton Soup Re: What Exactly Is Happening In Egypt?!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.accuracy.org/an-open-lett...-barack-obama/


An Open Letter to President Barack Obama
January 30, 2011 By journalist
Share

Dear President Obama:

As political scientists, historians, and researchers in related fields who have studied the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy, we the undersigned believe you have a chance to move beyond rhetoric to support the democratic movement sweeping over Egypt. As citizens, we expect our president to uphold those values.

For thirty years, our government has spent billions of dollars to help build and sustain the system the Egyptian people are now trying to dismantle. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in Egypt and around the world have spoken. We believe their message is bold and clear: Mubarak should resign from office and allow Egyptians to establish a new government free of his and his family’s influence. It is also clear to us that if you seek, as you said Friday “political, social, and economic reforms that meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people,” your administration should publicly acknowledge those reforms will not be advanced by Mubarak or any of his adjutants.

There is another lesson from this crisis, a lesson not for the Egyptian government but for our own. In order for the United States to stand with the Egyptian people it must approach Egypt through a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism of geostrategy. On Friday you rightly said that “suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.” For that reason we urge your administration to seize this chance, turn away from the policies that brought us here, and embark on a new course toward peace, democracy and prosperity for the people of the Middle East. And we call on you to undertake a comprehensive review of US foreign policy on the major grievances voiced by the democratic opposition in Egypt and all other societies of the region.

egyptletter.blogspot.com

Institutional affiliations are listed for identification purposes only. Views reflected in this letter are those of the individual signatories. "


I find the statement "a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism of geostrategy" very interesting. Has President Obama somehow signaled to the Middle East and the World a willingness to walk away from our investments and hope for the best?

 

[Proton Soup]

EXSQUEEZE ME!
Lacy Lou Who, Grinch University

thank you

que? i don't understand

 

[turbo]

Al Jazeera English is providing comprehensive coverage on the situation in Egypt, including the reactions of foreign governments, reactions of markets, including currency markets. Al Jazeera has been blacked out in Egypt, but they can still get footage out and aired through other venues.

 

[mheslep]

also, an acceptable source: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bab...erican-academics-urge-obama-oust-mubarak.html

...support the democratic movement sweeping over Egypt.
...
the major grievances voiced by the democratic opposition in Egypt...

We certainly hope this is a democratic movement, but so far all we see have for certain are mobs and mobs do not a democracy make. It strikes as highly arrogant of the letter authors to simply assert that this is fact the case.

 

[BilPrestonEsq]

Did the U.S. 'transition' peacefully into democracy or did we free ourselves with violence?
The U.S. was built by angry mobs!

 

[mheslep]

Did the U.S. 'transition' peacefully into democracy or did we free ourselves with violence?
The U.S. was built by angry mobs!

Nonsense. You are conflating violence and rebellion with the guiding force behind it. There were democracies in place throughout the colonies well before the first shot was fired at Concord. We don't yet know what's guiding the rebellion in Egypt, aside from a common resentment of Mubarak.