Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[Czcibor]

Forget mercenaries.
Ukrainians captured soldiers from Russian regular army. There are tons of photos and videos, where they say in which regiment they serve. Such as this:

I know. However, if Russians insist that they are not their troops and what even more important often don't wear proper insignia (which is required by Geneva convention to be considered as part of regular army) then I just refer them as mercenaries. If we take into account that Chechens fight on their side, then I consider this naming as quite proper. (However, I thought about different naming after they downed Malaysian airplane and had a minor assassination campaign against Ukrainian majors)More news:
Seem that Russian mercenaries effectively ambushed over 100 Ukrainian soldiers. (Looks like a quite good result for alleged cease fire)
http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_disp.asp?n_id=270433
(that's the only English language source that I found; it's already on all Polish media; I'm waiting for some additional confirmation)

One Polish military officer was arrested accused of espionage. The country for which he was allegedly spying is not said officially...
http://wyborcza.pl/1,75478,16810938,Zatrzymany_polski_oficer__Szpiegowal_dla_Rosji_.html
(sorry, only Polish, seem not to be newsworthy for English language media, if you are really interested use google translate, but there are not many details made public so far)

Andrii Deshchytsia is new Ukraine ambassador in Poland.
(The former foreign affairs minister, famous of diffusing crowd of angry Ukrainians wanted to destroy Russian embassy for downing Ukrainian plane and killing 49 soldiers, and instead singed one song that "Putin is # # # #")
http://zhvaniya.com/en/article/14_10_13_deschitsu_naznachili_poslom_ukrainyi_v_polshe

 

[Czcibor]

Sweden is hunting for a Russian submarine on its territorial waters:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/19/sweden-search-russian-submarine-stockholm
Opinion: Putin is working hard to convince neutral countries like Sweden and Finland to join NATO. ;)

In Poland - officially confirmed that the alleged spies were spying for Russia (one military officer, one lawyer working in parliament) As usual in my country in case of secrets their names are unofficially already circulating. So if anyone is interested I may find their CVs.

Russia has detained one of activist who was publishing data concerning soldiers who died in action in Ukraine:
http://www.rferl.org/content/detention-bogatenkova-soldiers-mothers-russia-ukraine/26643664.html

 

[Czcibor]

1)On Polish websites people got excited by each tiny slide of Russian ruble and expending by Russian gov financial reserves on uphill battle. Because of clear trend readers can be kept excited each day. ;)

Seeing more seriously a bigger picture:
Reserves are seriously decreasing, as can be presented even in Russian official statistics:
http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m

Nothing devastating at all so far, (decrease by something like 10% from the start of the year, however the process started recently to accelerate in last moths, this month is going to be a record)2) Interesting data concerning oil:

2.1) Russia needs price of barrel somewhere around 104 USD/barrel to have balanced budget
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...russia-s-sanctions-pain-chart-of-the-day.html

2.2) The price now is around 82 USD/barrel (if you read my post later just look up the link to get up to date info)
http://www.oil-price.net/

2.3) Saudis seem to support US enough to allow to keep prices of oil low: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/e2fd08c6-554c-11e4-b750-00144feab7de.html#axzz3H2yOTHnU

2.4) It seems that is worth investing in shale oil if the oil price is above 80 USD/barrel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/shale-boom-tested-as-sub-90-oil-threatens-u-s-drillers.html3) Russian debt downgraded to junk status
http://online.wsj.com/articles/russias-sovereign-debt-downgraded-by-moodys-1413580609
Maybe a bit excessive decision but the long run outlook is not optimistic.

Opinion: if we assume a linear model - I'd say Russia has a plenty of time for long stand off. However, in economics there is plenty of anticipation, herd behaviour and self fulfilling prophecies. There is somewhere a tipping point where everything collapses.

 

[Czcibor]

Interview with Chechen fighting on Ukrainian side:

I am fighting for Ukraine. I know what will happen to Ukraine if we fail to stop Russians. We’ve been fighting against Russia for 23 years, you can’t even imagine who have come to you. We are defending Ukraine here, we are defending the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. We are not Islamic fundamentalists, not terrorists, we are Chechens.

Russians killed my wife’s father after he said he didn’t know where my family was. One of her brothers was blown up, the other disappeared. And I can’t say it’s too much because avery Chechen family suffers similar losses. That’s what Russians have done to us, and that’s what they are going to do with Ukraine and Ukrainians. That’s why the Chechen peacemaking battalion named after Dzhokhar Dudayev came to the holy land of Ukraine to defend our Ukrainian brothers.

What are they fighting for? To annex more territory? Does Russia really lack it? It just can’t get enough.

Full interview:
http://belsat.eu/en/articles/battalion-commander-munayev-russia-acts-upon-chechen-pattern-ukraine/

 

[Czcibor]

The most of votes (77%) is already counted, so it's presumably enough to draw first conclusions:

1) Parliament would be dominated by pro-West parties.
2) The only pro-Russian party, Opposition Bloc (former Party of Regions) got respectable 4th place and 9,61%. (30 out of effectively 423 seats)
3) Yulia Tymoschenko - 6th place- 5,67% - barely survived.
4) Communists for the first time did not enter the parliament.
5) The Right Sector, which is demonized by Russian propaganda as Nazis got 1,84% (one seat). I wondered what would Russians do with such image blow. The Russian paid trolls that infest Polish forums explained it to me - in their claims all pro-West parties are Nazis.

wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_parliamentary_election,_2014

The so high support for pro-West orientation is caused by two main factors:
-Russian creeping invasions, which makes pro-Russian stances somewhat hard to support;
-The regions that would normally tend to be pro-Russian are already under control of Russian mercenaries or regular Russian army and was not possible to hold election there.

Opinion: That whole Putin's invasion would be analysed as a case study just next to Bush invasion on Iraq.

Data for minor parties:
http://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Парлам....B7.D1.83.D0.BB.D1.8C.D1.82.D0.B0.D1.82.D0.B8

 

[nikkkom]

5) The Right Sector, which is demonized by Russian propaganda as Nazis got 1,84% (one seat).

No, it gets no seats. Any party which gets less than 5% is not getting any sets.

Meanwhile, another video of captured soldier of Russian Army. He explains in detail how the process of clandestine invasion works:

 

[mheslep]

At the G20:

Russian President Vladimir Putin got a blunt message when he approached Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper for a handshake at today’s Group of 20 summit in Brisbane, Australia.

“I guess I’ll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you: you need to get out of Ukraine,” Harper told Putin, the prime minister’s spokesman Jason MacDonald said in an e-mail.

My kind of statesmanship. Who let Putin in the door at the G20? G19 sounds better.

 

[Czcibor]

The so called "ceasefire" with Russian mercenaries cost lives of almost 1000 people.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...sefire-death-toll-united-nations-human-rights

Seems that "Cyborgs" defenders of Doneytsk airport would have the same place in Ukrainian national mythology, as had defenders of Staliningrad in Soviet national mythology:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29793696

Brent at 78 dollars per barrel. Russia tries desperately to agree with OPEC oil production cut, so far with no result:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/25/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN0J90VC20141125

From good news for Russia seems that exchange rate somewhat stabilized around 45 rubles per dollar. (when in early 2014 Yanukvych was ovethrown it was something like 35 rubles per dollar)

 

[Czcibor]

From oil prices it seems that insiders already could guess how the OPEC summit would end:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-26/crude-falls-on-skepticism-before-meeting-opec-reality-check

However, as a person without such data I just mention that it end up with oil production cut:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/world/article/opec-to-keep-production-ceiling-at-summit

Oil (Brent) price at $70.

I have to make a correction concerning ruble stabilizing. Not at all, today it reached a historical record - 50 rubles per dollar.

Well, as we joked in Poland during communism - there is a plan to introduce a fixed exchange rate between dollar, pound and ruble. One dollar would be worth one pound of rubles.

 

[nikkkom]

Separatists firing a MLRS

 

[mheslep]

Video shows the firing adjacent a residential complex to deter return fire or incur civilian casualties.

 

[nikkkom]

Night video from the trenches on the Ukrainian side. After about midway through the video, they come under 120mm mortar shelling.

 

[jtbell]

Russia cancels trains to Ukraine

Russia's railway authorities have announced the cancellation of all passenger rail services to Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan for 2015. [...] Passenger services between Russia and Belarus, Moldova and Uzbekistan will reportedly continue.

Those Russia - Moldova trains will be interesting. A glance at a map shows that they would have to traverse Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, in order to avoid Ukrainian territory. I doubt Ukraine would be keen on allowing closed Russian trains to pass through, similar to the "corridor trains" that connected West Berlin with West Germany during the days of the Wall.

 

[voko]

That misrepresents, to put this mildly, the original report by TASS: http://tass.ru/en/russia/765766

MOSCOW, December 8. /TASS/. Federal Passenger Company, a unit of Russian Railways, has canceled passenger trains to several CIS countries, including Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan from Sunday for a year due to a low profitability, a representative for the company told PRIME Monday.

So, not "Russia's railway authorities", but merely a train operator. That report was followed by another:

http://tass.ru/en/world/765988

KIEV, December 9. /TASS/. The Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) will keep all its former rail routes to Russia intact despite a decision made by Russian Federal Passenger Company to cancel rail service to Ukraine for a year's time as of December 14, 2014, a representative of the Ukrzaliznytsia's press service told TASS on Tuesday. "Ukrzaliznytsia will continue rail service in winter the way it does now," the spokesman said.

 

[Czcibor]

That misrepresents, to put this mildly, the original report by TASS: http://tass.ru/en/russia/765766
So, not "Russia's railway authorities", but merely a train operator. That report was followed by another:

http://tass.ru/en/world/765988

If you are playing so in technicalities, indeed not a "Russian gov", but "company in which Russian gov holds indirectly 100% shares". It is a huge difference and makes that company purely profit oriented entity, practically invulnerable to any political pressure. ;)Anyway, I consider Russian-Belarus renewing of custom control as interesting step on the way to Eurasian Union:
http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-reinstates-customs-control-border-russia-end-eurasian-union-20726

Opinion: It seems that for Mr Lukashenko there is only point in the whole Eurasian Union if he is allowed to make money on reselling European food. If Russia tries to clamp that he is just retaliating with reintroducing border control on Belarus-Russia border. Maybe Russia should ally with countries that are more developed and have better rule of law? Oh, yes such countries tended recently to impose sanctions after invasion on Ukraine, so Mr Lukashenko is one of few that are left as allies in the region. ;)

EDIT:

The grim joke in Moscow these days is that oil, the ruble and Putin are all headed for 63 next year.

That’s oil down to $63/barrel, the ruble plummeting to 63/dollar, and Putin turning 63 years old.

That joke was ruined today as the price of a barrel of benchmark Brent crude flew past $63 and is already around $62.59.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-63-important-number-days/story?id=27555676

It seems that I omitted the best news - one dollar costs 58 rubles.

EDIT2:
US Congress passed Ukraine Support Act.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Support_Act_(H.R._4278;_113th_Congress)

There are some minor sanctions, money for radio, encouraging president to sell Ukrainians weapons and loan guarantees. Veiled threats against Gazprom if hit NATO or Ukraine/Moldovia/Georgia. Look nice, but not outstanding. However judging from hordes of Russian paid trolls commenting it on Polish websites, it seems that Russian are somewhat concerned.

 

[russ_watters]

Er, no: down is up for currency valuation, so the Rubble didn't get there yet.

 

[Danger]

There are tons of photos and videos, where they say in which regiment they serve. Such as this:

another video of captured soldier of Russian Army. He explains in detail how the process of clandestine invasion works:

Are there English translations of those available?

 

[Czcibor]

67,9 rubles for dollar, the today's record was somewhere around 78 or or 79. Anyway, whichever way you count it under such heavy swings ruble is worth less than 50% of its value a year ago.

Russian central bank raised today interest rates from 10,5% to 17% to boost ruble, it worked for a few hours.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rouble-strengthens-after-russian-central-bank-hikes-rates-2014-

Yesterday's rouble crash caused barely a ripple on Russia's primetime news last night, but today the battle to save the currency has been taking centre stage.

Bulletins on the three main channels on 15 December led with a health scare for a famous poet and the aftermath of the siege in Sydney. Official channel Rossiya 1 ignored the rouble completely, while state-controlled Channel One and Gazprom-Media's NTV both dedicated around a minute to the story - in NTV's case close to the end of the hour-long bulletin.

Channel One used a somewhat misleading screen graphic that understated the currency's collapse. It also warned that shops displaying prices in any other currency than the rouble could face stiff fines.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30492518

 

[Dotini]

What with sanctions and the halving in the price of oil, Russia's economy is reeling under a double-whammy. There was talk this morning on CNBC, the financial channel, of the potential for change in the leadership of Russia. Neocons have dreamed of this moment for years. Perhaps now really is the time to cinch the noose tight, and work openly to consummate a regime change there? Perhaps the incoming Congress will answer the siren call to arms? What could possibly go wrong?

 

[mheslep]

change in the leadership of Russia. Neocons have dreamed of this moment for years.

Why is it that only Neocons would enjoy a change of leadership in Russia?

 

[Danger]

Why is it that only Neocons would enjoy a change of leadership in Russia?

It isn't. I'm diametrically opposed to those freaks, and I want to see the Putin fried in his own fat.

 

[mheslep]

67,9 rubles for dollar, the today's record was somewhere around 78 or or 79. Anyway, whichever way you count it under such heavy swings ruble is worth less than 50% of its value a year ago.

Russian central bank raised today interest rates from 10,5% to 17% to boost ruble, it worked for a few hours.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rouble-strengthens-after-russian-central-bank-hikes-rates-2014- http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30492518

Yes the Ruble dropped to 59 before the bank kicked in. Imagine waking up one morning and finding nearly every import doubled in price, every car, every smart phone.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1D

 

[Czcibor]

What with sanctions and the halving in the price of oil, Russia's economy is reeling under a double-whammy. There was talk this morning on CNBC, the financial channel, of the potential for change in the leadership of Russia. Neocons have dreamed of this moment for years. Perhaps now really is the time to cinch the noose tight, and work openly to consummate a regime change there? Perhaps the incoming Congress will answer the siren call to arms? What could possibly go wrong?

I thought that Americans would not fully appreciate that (esepecially neocons who tend not to be geography savy ;) ) - on the list of people that would appreciate it the most - Ukrainians, Balts, whole Eastern and Central Europe.

Ruble for 68 dollars, it seems that Russian central bank is spending serious of money to defend its currency, the exact amount is not known.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2bb9549e-85bc-11e4-b11b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3M3bApYlg

 

[Czcibor]

Yes the Ruble dropped to 59 before the bank kicked in. Imagine waking up one morning and finding nearly every import doubled in price, every car, every smart phone.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1D

A bit different situation:
-Some companies don't adjust prices on time, so part of the stuff is priced in historical price of purchase + margin.
-People try to protect their savings, so buy durable stuff
-Some companies because of that are cleaned of goods.

Sorry, no luxury cars or iphones right now:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/w...le-swoons-russians-desperately-shop.html?_r=0

Their inflation is officially somewhere around 10%, while the price of imported stuff should have doubled. For me as an economist, that is a very interesting lag.

Some Russian companies already implemented good old solution "Conventional Currency Unit". You pay in rubles, but the price don't have to be adjusted often because is expressed in dollars, just the up to date exchange rate is necessary.

 

[nikkkom]

What with sanctions and the halving in the price of oil, Russia's economy is reeling under a double-whammy. There was talk this morning on CNBC, the financial channel, of the potential for change in the leadership of Russia. Neocons have dreamed of this moment for years. Perhaps now really is the time to cinch the noose tight, and work openly to consummate a regime change there?

This can be dangerous, since Russian leadership has entered a loop of producing outlandish propaganda, and then believing it themselves. They *do* believe that "the evil Amerika is trying to destroy us". No need to scare them further, they do have that red button.

Second, it is not at all clear than merely changing the regime will be an improvement. Current bout of Russian imperialism has strong roots in ordinary Russians' culture and prevailing political mood. If we want Russia to stop wanting to be an empire and stop wanting to antagonistically compete with the West instead of cooperating with it, we need to change *that*, not merely replace Putin and his gang. There are *even more imperialistic factions* in Russian politics than he is.

Keeping Russia just poor enough so that it can't attack neighbors may be a good policy.

 

[voko]

Keeping Russia just poor enough so that it can't attack neighbors may be a good policy.

Splendid. You want to prevent Russian "imperialism" by giving the Russians every reason to embrace it.

 

[Borg]

Splendid. You want to prevent Russian "imperialism" by giving the Russians every reason to embrace it.

What's the difference? Haven't they been embracing it before they had a reason anyway?

 

[voko]

What's the difference? Haven't they been embracing it before they had a reason anyway?

Oh, you mean now they have a reason? So "the evil Amerika is trying to destroy us" is not "outlandish propaganda"?

 

[russ_watters]

Oh, you mean now they have a reason? So "the evil Amerika is trying to destroy us" is not "outlandish propaganda"?

No, you misunderstood: that was a hypothetical. *IF* we adopt a policy of holding them back just for the sake of holding them back, it wold start to create a real basis. We're not hateful like that though and as long as Putin is acting imperialistic, that hypothetical is moot anyway; there is a clear aggressor here.

 

[Borg]

No, you misunderstood: that was a hypothetical. *IF* we adopt a policy of holding them back just for the sake of holding them back, it wold start to create a real basis. We're not hateful like that though and as long as Putin is acting imperialistic, that hypothetical is moot anyway; there is a clear aggressor here.

Exactly. My point was that Putin is already being imperialistic regardless of any real or perceived actions on the part of the U.S.

I think that a lot of people in the U.S. really embraced Russia and had a lot of hope for cooperation after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Now many in Russia seem to want to return to the isolationism and distrust of the past. That's pretty sad in my opinion.

 

[voko]

No, you misunderstood: that was a hypothetical.

Respectfully, that was not said by you, so I would like the author of that phrase to explain what was meant.

*IF* we adopt a policy of holding them back just for the sake of holding them back

"IF"? The Ukrainian Freedom Support Act of 2014", passed by the Senate a few days ago, defines a policy, "to[/PLAIN] deter the Government of the Russian Federation from
further destabilizing and invading Ukraine and other independent countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia". How is that different from the proposal in #725, which said "so that [Russia] can't attack neighbors"? And how is a policy "https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/2828/text" different from "Keeping Russia just poor enough"?

 

[voko]

Exactly. My point was that Putin is already being imperialistic regardless of any real or perceived actions on the part of the U.S.

It may be what you meant, but you said "before they a had a reason". Which implies there is a reason now. Which, given what I wrote in the previous message, may very well be the case.

Regardless, I believe that you are mistaken in judging that it is Putin, and not the Russians, who is being "imperialistic", whatever that means. Putin is hugely popular in Russia and as far as I can see his current policies are fully supported.

I think that a lot of people in the U.S. really embraced Russia and had a lot of hope for cooperation after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Now many in Russia seem to want to return to the isolationism and distrust of the past. That's pretty sad in my opinion.

I am of the opinion that many Russians would see this very differently. It was Russian soldiers who all marched away from Europe when the Iron Curtain fell. American soldiers are still there. And Nato has moved eastward, despite promises that it would not.

 

[Borg]

It may be what you meant, but you said "before they a had a reason". Which implies there is a reason now. Which, given what I wrote in the previous message, may very well be the case.

Regardless, I believe that you are mistaken in judging that it is Putin, and not the Russians, who is being "imperialistic", whatever that means. Putin is hugely popular in Russia and as far as I can see his current policies are fully supported.

Again, it doesn't matter whether Russia has a reason or not. Russia's actions in Ukraine occurred before the reasons mentioned by you and vikkkom. So, as I said before - What's the difference?

I am well aware of how popular Putin is in Russia. I am also aware through my many associations in the U.S. Russian community how unpopular he is with people who aren't under the sphere of his media control.

I am of the opinion that many Russians would see this very differently. It was Russian soldiers who all marched away from Europe when the Iron Curtain fell. American soldiers are still there. And Nato has moved eastward, despite promises that it would not.

Your own link states that there is some disagrement as to what was promised but I'll concede that Russia probably feels deceived. In any case, there is a huge difference between being invited into a country and marching in. Isn't it possible that countries started inviting NATO when they thought that Russia was becoming aggressive toward its neighbors? Russia's actions in Ukraine will just push them further toward the West.

 

[mheslep]

Putin is hugely popular in Russia and as far as I can see his current policies are fully supported.

There is in nation states a reality of what the policies are, and then there is what the State's propaganda arm says they are. In free, pluralistic societies the press and the democratic turn over of power keep the effect of propaganda to a minimum. In Russia however, state power does not turn over at the top and people in institutions like the press that attempt to cut through the propaganda often end up dead.

August 20, 1934

 

[mheslep]

I am also aware through my many associations in the U.S. Russian community how unpopular he is with people who aren't under the sphere of his media control.

Precisely.