Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Rive]

Isn't that what Putin just did in his speech?

And you have just went with his lead

 

[geordief]

Refugees are already pouring into Poland. There is a huge group of Ukrainians (probable around 1.3 million, Poland has around 38 millions population) working here (kinda like Mexicans in USA, although they are mostly legal). So for them not only Poland is a first country outside that is not under a direct Russian influence, but also a country where they already have friends and contacts.

Will a refugee exodus allow Russia to gerrymander the country to get a result in an "election" they can live with on an interim basis?

 

[fresh_42]

Will a refugee exodus allow Russia to gerrymander the country to get a result in an "election" they can live with on an interim basis?

No, but this is irrelevant. He already called the current leaders Nazis planning a genocide. He will simply announce a governor of his choice. Why should he take the risk of an election? And even if, he is a certified professional to get the desired result.

 

[rsk]

I am just very shocked by what has happened today.

I've been following the news, I've had some sympathy for the Russian position re the separatist regions. and I expected nothing more than a military intervention in those areas.

Is Putin gambling that nato won't intervene and he can take back Ukraine with little fuss?
Is today just a kind of shock and awe to be followed by a 'withdrawal' to the disputed separatist areas with the hope that 'the west' will now settle for that as a compromise?
Or is he genuinely pushing for all out war?

Disgusted at Boris Johnson's speech today when he could barely keep the smirk off his face. It's a time for serious diplomacy.

 

[rsk]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

I have been reading about kaliningrad today, I was looking at maps of Ukraine and eastern europe and noticed it, I had no idea there was a bit of Russia there.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Our Alberta Premier's first thought was that the world should boycott Russian oil and gas. He didn't explicitly say "... buy ours instead".

 

[phinds]

No, but this is irrelevant. He already called the current leaders Nazis planning a genocide. He will simply announce a governor of his choice. Why should he take the risk of an election? And even if, he is a certified professional to get the desired result.

 

[LCSphysicist]

We are living history right now.

 

[berkeman]

An off-topic tangent has been deleted.

Please keep it professional folks...

 

[russ_watters]

So?

There is deterrence value in NATO, if we fulfill our treaty obligations. Right now Putin is taking over a non-NATO country, with assurances from us that we won't intervene. And really, we can't now because we would be attacking Russia if we did. If he attacks a NATO country with US/German/etc troops in it, he's directly starting a war against us. That's a much bigger deal, and we successfully avoided war with the USSR for 40 years (and defeated it) this way.

Of course, we could have chosen to protect Ukraine in the same way but chose not to.

Why should he take the risk of an election?

Elections/votes don't carry risks for Putin.

 

[russ_watters]

Is Putin gambling that nato won't intervene and he can take back Ukraine with little fuss?

I don't see the gamble. We've told him we won't intervene.

 

[DennisN]

As a sidenote I personally suspect that the recent development will increase the support for a future NATO membership among the Swedish and Finnish population.

This discussion has already started now in Sweden and Finland.

The leader of one of the parties in Sweden has voiced the opinion:
"Lööf: Sweden should join Nato now" (SVT) (my title translation, the article is in Swedish only)

Our current Swedish prime minister is however careful with her words and says that "not being in an alliance has served us well" and "in this moment it is not wise to do anything" (she means with regards to a membership in Nato). (source: Expressen, a Swedish newspaper, in Swedish only)

 

[DennisN]

Plus: Putin could follow the same narrative, protecting Russian minorities in all three countries.

Yes, I agree completely.

 

[PeroK]

I don't see the gamble. We've told him we won't intervene.

It's still a gamble as Russia has things at stake that it could lose. Europe is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have a massive incentive now (even if we did not before) to try to become independent of Russia for our energy. And, for example, many of Putin's wealthy supporters have large property portfolios in London. He is gambling that the EU will not do anything to hurt its own economic interests and that if we retaliate in any way (through sanctions etc.) that his supporters and, more widely, the Russian people will blame Europe and the US and not him. That is a gamble.

 

[berkeman]

Wow, who saw this coming?

Russian riot police tell protesters to disperse in Moscow​

From CNN's Anna Chernova and Nic Robertson

Russian riot police are urging protesters to leave Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow, saying over loudspeakers that the “[protest] action is unauthorized.”
CNN’s Nic Robertson and team on the ground have witnessed people being detained by police. Some are carrying signs with messages, including multiple signs saying “no to war.”
Russian authorities on Thursday warned citizens that participating in anti-war protests could lead to prosecution and criminal charges.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/index.html

 

[gleem]

Continuing on @PeroK post. There was an CNN article stating that the West will have to hurt themselves in helping the Ukranians by at least accepting higher energy costs. We will have to put our money where our mouths are. The West has more to loose than Russia. The West"s GDP is well over $40T vs Russians $1.7T. However the West has grown accustom to the comforts of good economies. The question is how long will we tolerate the forthcoming sacrifices.

Pehaps one of the results of this conflict that could be the biggest factor is the number Russian casulties. Putin is expecting a swift take-over but if it drags on too long the casulties will rise. The Russian people might accept the sanctions for some time but not too many casulties; they still remember Afghanistan.

 

[fresh_42]

There is deterrence value in NATO, if we fulfill our treaty obligations. Right now Putin is taking over a non-NATO country, with assurances from us that we won't intervene.

Theoretically. But what if the balance sheet says Balticum or WWIII?

Please read my links at the beginning of the thread. I hope it isn't completely comparable, however, I wouldn't rule it out.

 

[russ_watters]

It's still a gamble as Russia has things at stake that it could lose. Europe is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have a massive incentive now (even if we did not before) to try to become independent of Russia for our energy.

True/fair enough. To some extent Putin must have known there would be sanctions, so there would have been a pre-calculated cost - but an uncertain one.

But I think what I was responding to was about the military gamble/lack thereof.

 

[fresh_42]

China is sitting in Bejing smiling! They are Putin's emergency exit on whatever sanctions from the West might be, and they are watching it, thinking: If he can do this with Ukraine, why we couldn't do it with Taiwan?

I really, really hate dictatorships, of any color.

 

[fresh_42]

At the beginning of February 2022, Deutsche Welle [German worldwide radio station] was banned from broadcasting in Russia by the Russian Foreign Ministry; in addition, journalists' accreditations were revoked.

And why is CNN live behind German news translated on TV?

 

[PeroK]

China is sitting in Bejing smiling!

I'm not so sure. China is dependent on the Europe and the US. In many ways, the last thing they want is people in the West to get a conscience and start questioning who we do business with. Democracies are fickle and if we saw China as Russia's ally and every second thing we look at is "made in China" then you never know.

Also, Putin made a fairly obvious threat of nuclear war today ("something the world has never seen") if anyone interferes with his plans. China's strategy is ecomomic dominance, not a nuclear stand-off with the West.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The sanctions aren't doing anything to stop this continuing... what Ukraine needs to do is attack Moscow. So far 40 people have lost their lives and if I was President of Ukraine I would be launching missiles into Russia to teach them a lesson.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...r-sanctions-as-russia-moves-in-across-ukraine

 

[PeroK]

PS I should say I'm not particularly optimistic, but the BBC News Correspondent in Moscow said what I'm hoping: that Putin has been in power for so long that he thinks he's invincible. He simply arrests anyone who protests again him. But, by precipitating a war he may have made for him a fatal mistake.

 

[DennisN]

This discussion has already started now in Sweden and Finland.

The leader of one of the parties in Sweden has voiced the opinion:
"Lööf: Sweden should join Nato now" (SVT) (my title translation, the article is in Swedish only)

Our current Swedish prime minister is however careful with her words and says that "not being in an alliance has served us well" and "in this moment it is not wise to do anything" (she means with regards to a membership in Nato). (source: Expressen, a Swedish newspaper, in Swedish only)

Update:

I heard earlier today one of the most famous journalists/commentators on Swedish national TV say that the current opinion of the Swedish people about NATO membership is ca:

• 1/3 wants Sweden to join NATO
• 1/3 wants Sweden to stay out of NATO
• 1/3 is undecided

Furthermore, on the paper we are not NATO members but we have had very close defensive cooperations with NATO and the US since a long time now. It is no secret that Sweden is heavily leaning towards the West at heart.

And I am certain that the current development regarding Russia and Ukraine will only strengthen this.

 

[fresh_42]

Update:

I heard earlier today one of the most famous journalists/commentators on Swedish national TV say that the current opinion of the Swedish people about NATO membership is ca:

• 1/3 wants Sweden to join NATO
• 1/3 wants Sweden to stay out of NATO
• 1/3 is undecided

Furthermore, on the paper we are not NATO members but we have had very close defensive cooperations with NATO and the US since a long time now. It is no secret that Sweden is heavily leaning towards the West at heart.

And I am certain that the current development regarding Russia and Ukraine will only strengthen this.

I'm not afraid of Sweden but of the Baltic countries. You cannot reason with a person who suffers F60.0.

And Berlin. I mean, as of 2020 there are 26,330 Russians in Berlin.

 

[DennisN]

I'm not afraid of Sweden but of the Baltic countries.

Same here. I just wanted to share the info so people here know what the position of Sweden is.

 

[Jarvis323]

I've read China is staunchly against violation of state sovereignty in principle. So Russia's fueling of the separatists in East Ukraine, declaration of their independence, and now invasion, are all behaviors they condemn implicitly, in principle at least. But they have strategic interests depending on a good relationship with Russia. So apparently they are in an awkward position geopolitically. Note, they view Taiwan as part of China already.

In terms of Russia's invasion emboldening them to possibly invade Taiwan. I'm not sure it should have that effect, because it is unlikely for Russia to have a net benefit from this. The economic effects, diplomatic effects, deaths, etc. will more likely be a sobering example of how nobody will benefit from that kind of aggression. At least that's my guess, but I may be totally wrong.

 

[phinds]

Biden just gave an address to the nation in which he threw out a bunch of kumbsya stuff about how the allies are united on sanctions and then in an answer in the Q&A he specifically said the the allies are NOT united because the most lethal sanction of all, expulsion of Russian banks from Swift, was NOT being done because the Europeans are not on board with it.

We're still being wimps and Putin's got to be loving it.

 

[fresh_42]

We're still being wimps and Putin's got to be loving it.

It is easy to demand from the Europeans against Russia what the US isn't willing to do against China. Things are more complicated than black and white. And, of course, do Europeans have tight relationships with Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

Wow, who saw this coming?

Russian riot police tell protesters to disperse in Moscow​

1,300 < arrests and counting.

Edit: 1,700+ now (1 a.m. in Moscow)

 

[phinds]

It is easy to demand from the Europeans against Russia what the US isn't willing to do against China. Things are more complicated than black and white. And, of course, do Europeans have tight relationships with Russia.

True. I should have added that were I a European I might well be against expelling Russia from SWIFT even though I would realize intellectually that it is perhaps the only thing that would really get Putin's attention. Self-interest is a powerful motivator and I DO understand why the European don't want the SWIFT expulsion.

I DO, however, stand by my statement that Putin's got to be loving the fact that the allies are NOT united on sanctions.

 

[Astronuc]

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

I've heard this mentioned several times, including this morning. One expert apologized during an interview about being wrong about Putin and about a comment made recently in which the expert had mentioned that the Biden administration was being a bit hysterical. It's one of those rare moments where an expert admits to being wrong.

I think Fiona Hill, for one, has been saying this.

Hill certainly knows about Russia and Putin.

Ukraine is a dysfunctional, somewhat democracy. At least the population had more say than they would under Russian control. And now the concern is that Putin's forces will eliminate dissent. The rhetoric from Putin is harsh. Someone has commented on his short stature, that like Napoleon, he suffers from 'short-man' syndrome (i.e., insecurity) among other dysfunctions. And the expert who apologized earlier mentioned that Putin probably felt backed into a corner based on comments from the US, UK and EU/NATO, so he felt the need to act by invading Ukraine. If they had forces in Belarus, Crimea and certainly along the eastern border, that was a sure sign that Putin has been building up to invade Ukraine before the US could respond.

I recall something about the US declaring Ukraine as a ally. Well, clearly, that didn't mean a whole lot in the present crisis.

 

[PeroK]

Ukraine is a dysfunctional, somewhat democracy.

A bit like the USA, then?

 

[phinds]

I recall something about the US declaring Ukraine as a ally. Well, clearly, that didn't mean a whole lot in the present crisis.

It meant exactly as much as it meant when Russian annexed Crimea. Pretty much nothing.

 

[Jarvis323]

KYIV, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been captured by Russian forces, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said on Thursday.

"It is impossible to say the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is safe after a totally pointless attack by the Russians," he said.

"This is one of the most serious threats in Europe today," Podolyak said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...russian-forces-ukrainian-official-2022-02-24/