Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

Here is a somewhat anecdotal assessment of reasons for Putin's political moves, not sure whether it's real but thought we might need a break from heated debates about how the world will end... or not

 

[fresh_42]

Do we have users who can read Russian subtitles, or understand German? I have found such a funny comment, unfortunately not in English.

Spoiler

And the new Legos are in town (currently sold out if I understood it correctly)

 

[Vanadium 50]

Putin is essentially stating that being able to defend the sovereignty of one's nation against a Russian invasion is a threat to Russia. If any nation has to the capability to resist the wims/demands of Putin, the he considers it a threat.

That is correct.

Putin is insane!

Why do you say that? His strategy appears to be working. We even have a forum member that is willing to give him most of Eastern Europe if he promises not to hurt us.

Xi Jinping

China must be furious. The Russian fiasco surely has enboldened Taiwan. Backing Russia moved them farther from their goals, not closer.

 

[Astronuc]

Can Ukraine really win this war?


As the fighting enters its fourth week in Ukraine, a question looms: could Ukraine actually win? NPR's Juana Summers talks with CEPA's Steven Horrell in an insightful interview about the prospects of Russian defeat in Ukraine.

Russia could lose the war in the sense of failing to realize the strategic goals of full occupation and control of Ukraine. Russia could lose on the battle field. Then what. How long are sanctions maintained? What happens over the next decade or two? Does Putin attempt to expand the borders elsewhere? How long will NATO be on guard? What will Putin's retaliation on those nations who supported Ukraine.

Can Ukraine win? What does that even look like? Can Ukraine accept loss of territory, loss of civilian life and loss of security?

A complete victory for Ukraine would be complete expulsion of Russian forces from all of Ukraine, including Crimea. That may not happen in the near term, which while leaving uncertainty in the near and long term.

Putin can't afford to lose in Ukraine, but he likely will.

Hopefully, the transcript will be available later today.

Reaching Russians: None So Deaf as Those Who Won’t Hear​

https://cepa.org/reaching-russians-none-so-deaf-as-those-who-wont-hear/

Attempts to counter Putin’s disinformation machine will need to be carefully calibrated for Russians fed on a diet of lies.​

Imagine a country that denies it has any ambition to conquer a neighbor; imagine it maintains this even as its armies mass on the border; at the same time, imagine that state-backed pundits discuss how to execute the invasion that you believe won’t happen. Imagine believing both contradictory ideas at the same time.

No need to imagine — this is Vladimir Putin’s Russia and it underlines just how difficult it will be to reach ordinary Russians who are fed such propaganda, who have no access to alternative fact-based reporting, and persuade them that the men in the Kremlin are lying and cynically misusing them. It is precisely George Orwell’s 1984, where citizens are asked to practice doublethink, the acceptance of untruth and contradiction.

 

[BillTre]

Arnold Schwarzenegger has released a really good (IMHO) video to the Russian people through a bunch of different channels in an attempt to get through to many people.
It's well thought out.

Since I don't understand putting a video from a tweet into PF, here's a link!

 

[fresh_42]

Right click and "copy video address" and "insert link".

 

[BillTre]

Copy video address and "insert link".

How'd you do that?

 

[fresh_42]

How'd you do that?

Right click on the video and "copy video address" and "insert link" here.

 

[BillTre]

Cool

 

[bob012345]

Can Ukraine really win this war?

Yes, they already have. They deprived Russia of a quick victory, exposed Russia's incompetence and brutality and alerted everyone else to arm and defend themselves now.

 

[hutchphd]

Thanks for the video. Arnold does a very good job.
And on one level it is simply terrifying.

.

 

[DaveC426913]

It's been 1200+ posts. Has someone addressed the error in the subject line?

Why It's 'Ukraine,' Not 'the Ukraine' ​

https://time.com/12597/the-ukraine-or-ukraine/
“Ukraine is a country,” says William Taylor, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009. “The Ukraine is the way the Russians referred to that part of the country during Soviet times … Now that it is a country, a nation, and a recognized state, it is just Ukraine. And it is incorrect to refer to the Ukraine, even though a lot of people do it.
https://time.com/12597/the-ukraine-or-ukraine/

 

[StevieTNZ]

The UN health chief says the Ukrainian people are facing severe disruption to services and medication and stressed that “the life-saving medicine we need right now is peace”.

World Health Organisation Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has told the UN Security Council that WHO had verified 43 attacks on hospitals and health facilities, with 12 people killed and 34 injured.

In a virtual briefing, Tedros said “the disruption to services and supplies is posing an extreme risk to people with cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, HIV and TB, which are among the leading causes of mortality in Ukraine”.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...l-supplies-43-hospitals-health-centres-bombed

 

[fresh_42]

It's been 1200+ posts. Has someone addressed the error in the subject line?

Why It's 'Ukraine,' Not 'the Ukraine'​

https://time.com/12597/the-ukraine-or-ukraine/
“Ukraine is a country,” says William Taylor, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009. “The Ukraine is the way the Russians referred to that part of the country during Soviet times … Now that it is a country, a nation, and a recognized state, it is just Ukraine. And it is incorrect to refer to the Ukraine, even though a lot of people do it.
https://time.com/12597/the-ukraine-or-ukraine/

Changed.

 

[DaveC426913]

It's been 1200+ posts. Has someone addressed the error in the subject line?

(Oops. Rereading that, it may not have come out the way I heard it in my head. I didn't mean "Why has no one changed it in 1200 posts?" I meant "I'm arriving very late to the game; I'm sure it's been mentioned.")

 

[phinds]

Then came Gorbachev whose demise is better known to those outside the USSR.

Gorbachev is going to be very upset to hear that he's dead.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Biden Calls Putin A War Criminal - The View's panel take:​

 

[Vanadium 50]

Gorbachev is going to be very upset to hear that he's dead.

If he were alive to hear that, he'd be spinning in his grave.

 

[Astronuc]

A Texas legal scholar reflects on Russia and Ukraine.
Robert B. Ahdieh, dean and Anthony G. Buzbee endowed dean’s chair, of the Texas A&M School of Law, is an expert on Russia who worked with Gorbachev and met Putin. What he says about Ukraine
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/article259462009.html

In Ahdieh’s second year of law school, his undergraduate thesis on Russian legal culture was published as a book. In Russia’s Constitutional Revolution: Legal Consciousness and the Transition to Democracy, 1985-1996, a hopeful Ahdieh argued the development of Russian legal culture is critical to the success of the country’s transition to democracy. Russia’s constitutionalism will only result from an “evolution from below,” he concluded.

That’s not what happened.
Read more at: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/article259462009.html#storylink=cpy

Meanwhile - Four Paths Forward in Ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/podcasts/the-daily/ukraine-war-zelensky-putin.html
Conversation between NY Times reporter David Sanger with host Michael Barbaro

It has been three weeks since the war in Ukraine began. The fighting grinds on and there is no clear end in sight. But what are the potential paths forward in the coming days and weeks?

On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an address to Congress, proposed one such path, though it is an incredibly unlikely one: a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

Elsewhere, Times reporting has suggested four other potential scenarios — a diplomatic end to the conflict; protracted monthslong fighting; China coming to Russia’s rescue; and President Vladimir V. Putin expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.

 

[DennisN]

Interesting input from EU ambassador to US Stavros Lambrinidis here.
Among other things he says that the recent fascist/Stalin speech from Putin (my words, not his) may be the result of e.g. oligarchs and others disagreeing with Putin. It makes some sense to me, but please see the entire clip for more context.

If Putin Succeeds, ‘All The Bullies Around The World Will Try To Do The Same’: EU Amb. (MSNBC, Mar 17, 2022)

European Union Ambassador to the United States Stavros Lambrinidis discusses the West's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.



Sidenote:

One thing I've reflected on lately is how weird the world can be. A former Ukrainian tv comedian (
Volodymyr Zelenskyy) plays a president in a popular tv series, and then afterwards becomes a president. And after that, due to the dramatic recent events, he actually manages to unite the West in a way we haven't seen since a long time ago. Truly remarkable.

 

[geordief]

Interesting input from EU ambassador to US Stavros Lambrinidis here.
Among other things he says that the recent fascist/Stalin speech from Putin (my words, not his) may be the result of e.g. oligarchs disagreeing with Putin. It makes some sense to me, but please see the entire clip for more context.

I am happy with that "fascist" (or equivalent) characterization.

Apart from the deeply unpleasant and divisive tone there was an (un?) controlled hysteria about it where the speaker allowed his personal petty animosities to stand in for the political role he was supposedly playing.

L'état c'était lui .

 

[Astronuc]

Putin echoes Stalin in 'very, very scary' speech​

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-echoes-stalin-in-very-very-scary-speech-185956140.html

“We are well post-1934,” said Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international relations at the New School in New York City, referencing the year when Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin began his murderous purge. Putin is an unabashed admirer of Stalin and has worked — successfully, in Russia — to rehabilitate his image, which suffered for years after a posthumous denunciation in 1956 by Khrushcheva’s great-grandfather Nikita Khrushchev, then the Soviet leader.

In his unsettling remarks, Putin lashed out at “national traitors” he blamed for undermining the war he launched against Ukraine.

“Putin really wants to take Russia back to Stalin days,” Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, wrote on Twitter. “He has always emulated Stalin, and this speech is definitely angrier and stronger than previous speeches.”

 

[valenumr]

What does "move" mean and how do we get such a mandate? Only the security council is capable of issuing a binding resolution. And please don't quote anonymous sources as strawmen.

I'm not sure that's entirely accurate:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_377

This has happened in this case. Current resolution is non-binding. They could move forward and push for enforcement.

 

[valenumr]

Yes, they already have. They deprived Russia of a quick victory, exposed Russia's incompetence and brutality and alerted everyone else to arm and defend themselves now.

I wouldn't necessarily say they've "won", but Russia has certainly lost. Putin has likely scored the biggest own goal in geopolitical history.

A win for Ukraine, in my mind, would be if they push Russia out of Donbas, Crimea, and maybe Transnistria.

But going back to 2014 borders, wouldn't be a loss. More like a stale mate for Ukraine at great cost. I don't see any outcome where Russia hasn't strategically lost.

 

[artis]

Gorbachev is going to be very upset to hear that he's dead.

I just now realized I made a funny mistake.

PS. @BillTre that Arnold speech was really great. Hope it actually gets
somewhere
Local musicians here have also told the truth, well many have noted that they were unsubscribed by a considerable number of followers on various platforms like FB and Instagram which means that not everyone agrees with the no war message

 

[DennisN]

Swedish port workers are considering taking actions on their own with regards to Russian shipment...

Source (Swedish only): https://www.nyteknik.se/fordon/hamnarbetare-vill-stoppa-ryska-fartyg-hotar-med-blockad-7030393 (Ny Teknik, 17 March 2022)

Some quotes, quickly translated with Google translate:

The Swedish Port Workers' Union wants to stop Russian ships from Swedish ports and is threatening a blockade and will act even before the notice has passed. "There is a very strong opinion among our members that they do not want to deal with these ships and cargo," says Erik Helgeson, vice chairman of the Swedish Port Workers' Union.

[...]

The issue is currently being discussed internally within the EU, but there is still no clear answer to the issue. Tomas Eneroth emphasizes the importance of a joint decision being taken at EU level.

- The strength of the sanctions against Russia is based on the EU acting together, it would be unfortunate to break the agreement we have in the EU, he says.

What do you think about the union now acting on its own?

- Of course, it is important to have a strong commitment to the people of Ukraine. There is also nothing that prevents the Port Workers' Union to act, the government can not prevent that, says Tomas Eneroth.

[...]

 

[DennisN]

Some more comments on Putin's recent fascist/Stalinist speech (my words, again):
(among other things, they reference Fiona Hill)

Reaction To Putin’s Latest Press Conference | Zerlina. (MSNBC, March 18, 2022)

In Vladimir Putin’s recent press conference, he made some interesting statements and claims. Democratic Strategist Aaron Parnas and Jeffrey Edmonds join Zerlina Maxwell to react.

 

[Jarvis323]

Here is a somewhat anecdotal assessment of reasons for Putin's political moves, not sure whether it's real but thought we might need a break from heated debates about how the world will end... or not

I don't think it's anything to be self conscious about being short. And besides, Churchill was only 5'6''/167.6 cm. Then again, Putin looks like he is wearing high heels in this photo. I wonder if without those heels he would be closer to Ahmadinejad?

Anyways, it is a little embarrassing (for him at least) for a world leader to walk around in secret very high heels. But what this really tells me about him is that he isn't that intelligent (of course people are going to notice and then he is going to be 10 times more embarrassed), and his emotions get the best of him (leading him to do stupid things).

Now, he is angry as hell and desperate. He has his reputation as a competent war wager at stake (pride and fear of embarrassment), his life at stake more than ever (fear of death or being overthrown), and there have probably been more insults thrown at him in the last month than he has had in his entire life. So I would venture to say Putin is likely to act irrationally (not act rationally as a brutal dictator, but actually unintelligent/unwise and irrational in the pure sense). Hitler also succumbed to irrational behavior toward the end of WW2, which is a large factor in his defeat (e.g. sending the bulk of his troupes off ill equipped and into snow storms to fight the Russians).

It's a double edged sword. The more Putin's negative emotions become charged, the more mistakes he'll make, but he also has weapons of mass destruction at his disposal (and that might be more than just nukes) that he'll be more likely to use. It's a potentially very dangerous situation.

Maybe what could help would be if whichever people he looks up to the most, and various world leaders, gave him some kind of counseling or talk (like Arnold's) trying to let him know that it's ok to admit defeat, and we'd respect him even more for it. Similarly they could tell him it's ok to be short and we would respect him more if he just took them off or went public about them (although that should be saved for another time lol).

 

[Rive]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

On the other hand, once they starting to lose and get closer to their home borders, their logistics will improve fast. Also, at the end of spring the lands will dry.

So, Ukraine can't get them completely out and they have a deadline too.

Putin needs to go, otherwise this will get even more nasty very fast

 

[artis]

Maybe what could help would be if whichever people he looks up to the most, and various world leaders, gave him some kind of counseling or talk (like Arnold's) trying to let him know that it's ok to admit defeat, and we'd respect him even more for it. Similarly they could tell him it's ok to be short and we would respect him more if he just took them off or went public about them (although that should be saved for another time lol)

I think viewing Putin as some sort of a kid who is now so emotional over his mistakes that he needs counseling is both a mistake, because I don't think that is what is happening and it is also insulting to the people who have lost their loved ones and families.

Contrary to what other members here have said I don't think Putin is crazy or with mental deficiencies or in need of a "safe space", nor do I think he needs a "comfort animal" or anxiety pills, I think he needs some good old a$$ whoopin which he has never got as it seems.

Make no mistake his actions are calculated and premeditated and any current irrational behavior or overly aggressive posture is simply an indirect acknowledgment that he knows the war is not going his way.
It's like the gypsy man who asked me for cigarettes once only to find out I don't smoke, then he suddenly needed a phone to call, and some money for a train. One thing leads to another with Putin but their all part of a plan.

 

[artis]

Speaking of "results" it seems like the combination of poor field performance combined with sanctions and universal hatred towards his actions has brought some promising prospects in the recent Putin call with Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754

​

 

[artis]

And some humor, this is Canada's UN mission response to a Russian proposal

 

[Jarvis323]

I think viewing Putin as some sort of a kid who is now so emotional over his mistakes that he needs counseling is both a mistake,

But how do you explain the high heels?

because I don't think that is what is happening and it is also insulting to the people who have lost their loved ones and families.

I don't get your point. It's a general truth that he would be more respected overall if he were to stop/give up when he has failed (or wear normal shoes once everyone knows he's secretly wearing heels). This is a truth he is blinded to, because he is obsessed with never yielding, even to the point of extreme irrationality. I'm not saying it is possible to get through to him. But if it could be done, then it might save many many lives.

Make no mistake his actions are calculated and premeditated and any current irrational behavior or overly aggressive posture is simply an indirect acknowledgment that he knows the war is not going his way.

His action to wear ridiculous high heels was calculated. Calculated, but silly and stupid. His decision to invade Ukraine was calculated but stupid. Sure things have gone is way in the past, but not through intelligence, through brutality. He's assassinated his competition, and invaded weaker countries and territories. He's corrupted his government and pillaged his people. I would challenge you to point to anything he's done which shows true intelligence.

Thank God the west has finally woken up from their "woke" paradise and realized the world is still an evil place and some people understand only "tough" language. I hope this brings results.

I thought I remember you criticizing the west for its aggression in the past. Now you're acting as if they finally became "tough". The US has basically been probably the "toughest" active military force on the planet since WW2, only perhaps surpassed recently by Russia. And in terms of "wokeness", it was the conservative politicians, including the previous Republican president, who were advocating leaving NATO and leaving the Baltic nations to fend for themselves while getting friendly with Putin. Meanwhile, his first (centrist I guess) Democrat opponent (Hillary Clinton) might be even as aggressive militarily as Putin is.

 

[Oldman too]

Thank God the west has finally woken up from their "woke" paradise and realized the world is still an evil place and some people understand only "tough" language. I hope this brings results.

Hi Artis, I was thinking that maybe your use of "woke" might have been misapplied here, not sure how its construed in Europe but here in the U.S. it, means among other things, well... https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/woke-meaning-origin , it can also be a "political football" but as they say "The ambiguity is the essence" so it's a somewhat loaded term, or not, depending on whom one is addressing.

Jarvis, in his last paragraph pretty much "hit the nail on the head".

 

[pinball1970]

Hope springs eternal ...

There is talk of steroids and Chemotherapy. Parkinson's and or cancer, no idea if there is any truth to that. If he is I'll thinks he may die in the next 12 months or so i don't think that is a good scenario for his decision making. Not so much the mental impairment, more the 'i have nothing to lose,' mentality.