Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[pinball1970]

Speaking of "results" it seems like the combination of poor field performance combined with sanctions and universal hatred towards his actions has brought some promising prospects in the recent Putin call with Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754

​

I have just read this. This seems promising?

 

[DennisN]

An interview with the Russian TV employee who put a crack in the Kremlin propaganda machine.
Among other things she talks about how she did it, why she did it, and also about brainwashing and a split support of the war inside Russia (ca 50/50 she says).

'My life has changed irrevocably': Russian journalist who crashed live TV broadcast (CNN, Mar 17, 2022)

Marina Ovsyannikova, the Russian state TV employee who protested the war in Ukraine during a live news broadcast, speaks to CNN's Christiane Amanpour in her first major television interview since her protest.

 

[artis]

But how do you explain the high heels?

Truth be told I put that video as a joke here. I don't know nor do I have the sources to know whether that is true. It could be AI video software editing or it could be true, if it's true, well all people have insecurities. I have mine but I don't justify my resulting bad actions with them.

I don't get your point. It's a general truth that he would be more respected overall if he were to stop/give up when he has failed (or wear normal shoes once everyone knows he's secretly wearing heels). This is a truth he is blinded to, because he is obsessed with never yielding, even to the point of extreme irrationality. I'm not saying it is possible to get through to him. But if it could be done, then it might save many many lives.

You could be right but if history is any measure I think that would be a futile attempt. I'm sure many mass murderers or murderers in general also had severe psychological problems that contributed to their actions but do we try to comfort them in order to stop their actions or do we arrest them/ stop them by force and then figure out what to do?
I personally am not convinced a softer and forthcoming relationship with Putin would make stark difference in the long term, because that would imply he would completely change course and give up all his ambitions if that were the case and I personally don't believe that, if anything he would use that for his personal benefit as he has done so before. It's like trying to talk your way out of a speeding ticket with a "law and order" type policeman, no approach will succeed for someone who is determined on his path.

His action to wear ridiculous high heels was calculated. Calculated, but silly and stupid. His decision to invade Ukraine was calculated but stupid. Sure things have gone is way in the past, but not through intelligence, through brutality. He's assassinated his competition, and invaded weaker countries and territories. He's corrupted his government and pillaged his people. I would challenge you to point to anything he's done which shows true intelligence.

Again I don't know about the heels part , can't really comment, as for Ukraine , well it may seem stupid but there was a real plan that would have benefited him if it succeeded, can call it evil but not sure whether it is stupid.
The assassinations also benefited him, I think it's easy to see. If your goal is to become the only ruler in town then you have to get rid of your opposition, so far I don't see much inconsistency.
I think you are confusing good with intelligent, evil can also be intelligent, just the result is different.
Some of the biggest oligarchs here got their money through ill ways , often including assassinations and bribery. They are very smart. It takes a lot of planning and thinking to get away with so many broken laws.

I thought I remember you criticizing the west for its aggression in the past. Now you're acting as if they finally became "tough".

True, I did that, but when I said this I thought it in a specific context , namely that of policy towards China and Russia. I still hold my position in that I don't like expansionist policy neither from west or east. I don't think it is possible or viable and wise to accept every country along the Russian border in NATO. It may look nice on paper but it's not doable in a real sense. I got some "heat" (more like hate) for these comments here before although not sure why.
That being said I also don't believe that not being in NATO is an excuse for some aggressor to come in and use the situation. Taiwan is also not in NATO nor have there been any real plans or even talks of accepting it in NATO, but that doesn't mean Taiwan is "up for grabs" to the strongest bidder.
Even more so Ukraine had already a treaty guaranteeing it's territorial sovereignty , had it any effect ?
My particular criticism would be that this wasn't a surprise attack, Russia pretty much signaled it's intentions as far back as 2014 with the "little green men" and Donbas and Crimea. Back then EU and US did next to nothing, which probably contributed to the current escalation.

I don't know whether Ukraine in NATO would have helped to avoid this situation or instead made a Russian attack sooner and their fulfillment of their threats more realistic, and it seems that now they will reach a "deal" that could have been done long before where Ukraine doesn't join NATO but Russia is forbidden to interfere in their sovereign territory.
As for soft power interference , well NATO doesn't solve that, Baltics are in NATO and Russia meddles politically as if nothing changes.

So to sum up what I believe , if anyone has the time or cares to read, I believe in peace but achieved taking into account the particular peculiarities of certain regions. Sure ideally I would also say that Ukraine can go for whatever they wish, be it NATO, EU, Mars etc but realistically there are compromises, this war could have been avoided most likely with stronger policy, sanctions in the past towards Russian previous aggression and meanwhile recognizing that Ukraine has to stay neutral without joining NATO but asking that the Russians agree that if this is achieved that they cannot interfere in Ukraine and if they do like they just did then Ukraine reserves the option to have NATO troops fighting on their behalf as foreign military aid. Honestly we have come close to this anyway now, so what's the difference?

And in terms of "wokeness", it was the conservative politicians, including the previous Republican president, who were advocating leaving NATO and leaving the Baltic nations to fend for themselves while getting friendly with Putin. Meanwhile, his first (centrist I guess) Democrat opponent (Hillary Clinton) might be even as aggressive militarily as Putin is.

I agree , Trump made some weird foreign policy moves that got us rather worried and infuriated here in Baltics. On the other hand I don't think Hillary would have been better, being too nice with Putin runs the risk of him getting his way, but being too tough with him runs the risk of actually making WW3.
So far I must said Biden has been manageable , maybe bit slow but fine.
But this is not about US politicians as much as it is about the idea to have certain red lines and agreed upon rules that don't necessarily involve having a particular country within a particular union. Sweden or Finland isn't in NATO, does that mean we should tolerate any Russian advances towards them?
We did tolerate just that with Ukraine back in 2014...

Hi Artis, I was thinking that maybe your use of "woke" might have been misapplied here, not sure how its construed in Europe but here in the U.S. it, means among other things, well... https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/woke-meaning-origin , it can also be a "political football" but as they say "The ambiguity is the essence" so it's a somewhat loaded term, or not, depending on whom one is addressing

Hi, nice to hear your comment, I agree @Oldman too I most likely made a mistake, this word is "loaded" , powerful but loaded and easy to get enemies using it.
That being said my points about US companies and certain politicians having very "apologetic and apologizing" attitude towards rivals like China I believe is on point. Much like the example of John Cena apologizing in mandarin for daring to call Taiwan a country. I wonder would he also do it if China invaded Taiwan like Russia did with Ukraine.

 

[Astronuc]

Marina Ovsyannikova,

Very brave woman.

Mayor Vitalia Klitschko on Russia's claim of not targeting/attacking civilians, and interview with his brother, former boxing champion, Wladimir Klitschko, about the war.

 

[phinds]

I just now realized I made a funny mistake.

I'll bet Gorbachev wouldn't think it's funny (if he were a PF member)

 

[artis]

I'll bet Gorbachev wouldn't think it's funny (if he were a PF member)

He would have reported me to the PFburo which would denounce me.

 

[neilparker62]

if instead of the previous 'reset' Putin had got an adequate response the present war would not have happened

Yes - this is all too well chronicled in GK's book "Winter is Coming" ! You read some paragraphs about the "invasion of Ukraine" and you'd think he was talking right now about the current crisis. Then of course you realize he's referring to the Crimean takeover and the book was written several years ago.

I hope Russia will ultimately find it's own 'reset' on this disaster. Wiser heads would surely realize that Russian speaking kith and kin in Ukraine are far more easily kept 'in the fold' by diplomatic means rather than by the sledgehammer type tactics currently being employed!

 

[artis]

This is how sanctions this tough look in action combined with the natural fear of not being prepared for the worst, a bunch of Russian "babushkas" fighting over sugar.


Even here in the Baltics when the war started people out of their natural tendency for fear stocked up basic survival food like rice, oil, bread and sugar, salt. There were days when I went to store and there was no sugar in shelve. A weird scene.
Then I go to FB marketplace and some are speculating selling sugar four double the price...
Glad I'm cool and so far don't fear so I just decided to wait for new sugar boxes to arrive. Social ramifications of war much like the waves of an earthquake are felt far away

 

[bob012345]

Any realistic chance president Zelensky could convince the Russian backing regions of Ukraine that they are better off in a loose confederation with Ukraine than as part of Russia under Putin? That would be quite an accomplishment.

 

[bob012345]

This is how sanctions this tough look in action combined with the natural fear of not being prepared for the worst, a bunch of Russian "babushkas" fighting over sugar.


Even here in the Baltics when the war started people out of their natural tendency for fear stocked up basic survival food like rice, oil, bread and sugar, salt. There were days when I went to store and there was no sugar in shelve. A weird scene.
Then I go to FB marketplace and some are speculating selling sugar four double the price...
Glad I'm cool and so far don't fear so I just decided to wait for new sugar boxes to arrive. Social ramifications of war much like the waves of an earthquake are felt far away

Which country are you in? I have been to beautiful Tallinn, Estonia a few years ago.

 

[artis]

Which country are you in? I have been to beautiful Tallin, Estonia a few years ago.

I'm in Latvia, capital Riga. Yes Tallinn is lovely

 

[Jarvis323]

I personally am not convinced a softer and forthcoming relationship with Putin would make stark difference in the long term, because that would imply he would completely change course and give up all his ambitions if that were the case and I personally don't believe that, if anything he would use that for his personal benefit as he has done so before.

You've confused my point. The point is Putin should wake up to the fact that respect can be earned through honesty, humility, and compassion, and that one can admit failure and give in (when it is the intelligent thing to do) and still maintain respect.

Communicating that has little to do with with how soft you are on him.

That being said my points about US companies and certain politicians having very "apologetic and apologizing" attitude towards rivals like China I believe is on point. Much like the example of John Cena apologizing in mandarin for daring to call Taiwan a country. I wonder would he also do it if China invaded Taiwan like Russia did with Ukraine.

This is nearly the opposite of wokeness as it's understood in the West. Wokeness, as it's been used where I live, was origionally most often related to activism against corruption, war, economic policy, social norms, oppression and inequality based on race, ethnicity, gender, religion, or nationality, as well as environmentalism, etc. This, in combination with an idea that people have been lied to, manipulated, or conditioned to see these issues in an innacurate way or from a distorted perspective.

After the birth of the age of social media, together with some controversial movements and opinions, and extremely polarized politics, wokeness came to become a slur used by more conservative or right leaning people and politians who would point out elements which were ripe for ridicule and dislike from their audiences. And then it became a tactic to paint the opposition party and constituents as all being the same "woke" (as a slur) group of people accordingly, and also a tool to turn people away from all sorts of activism through association, conflation, and ridicule, or by seeding conspiracy theories.

Anyway, like I said, for whatever reason, it has actually been the people who are being called woke, here, who have been toughest with Russia in recent times. Probably, partly, because standing up to fascists and dictators and human rights violations are major areas of activism. Other politicians, recently the ones who are enemies of the woke, have instead been thinking from a more selfish point of view (America first), and making light of Putin's behavior and giving him a green light to do what he wants as long as it doesn't involve the US.

In terms of China, the "woke" have been against the xenophobia, nationalism, and racism that sprang from recent villification of China, more than anything. Politicians on the left have also been emphasing that effect in political battles with the right. Some on the left have also advocated against the trade wars that were started. There's a lot more to it still I guess.

Finally, the appologetics are not an example of wokeness in any sense I can imagine. Maybe you have a shallow perception of what "woke" people are like and how you expect them to behave.

In John Cena's case in particular, the fact he is speaking in Mandarin (which is not easy) shows he has some real relationship to the people of China, maybe personal interest along with the economic. He doesn't want to lose that. It has nothing to do with wokeness or softness, it is self interest.

 

[Jarvis323]

Any realistic chance president Zelensky could convince the Russian backing regions of Ukraine that they are better off in a loose confederation with Ukraine than as part of Russia under Putin? That would be quite an accomplishment.

From what I've read, the majority of people in those regions don't really care too much if they are part of Ukraine or Russia, they just want prosperity and peace.

 

[phinds]

From what I've read, the majority of people in those regions don't really care too much if they are part of Ukraine or Russia, they just want prosperity and peace.

Isn't that what everybody everywhere wants?

 

[bob012345]

Isn't that what everybody everywhere wants?

Perhaps in theory but functionally some people have very strange ideas about what that means and they want to impose their ideas on others who resist. For example, the Borg concept of peace and prosperity means you will be assimilated.

 

[Borg]

For example, the Borg concept of peace and prosperity means you will be assimilated.

Isn't that what everybody wants?

 

[phinds]

Perhaps in theory but functionally some people have very strange ideas about what that means and they want to impose their ideas on others who resist. For example, the Borg concept of peace and prosperity means you will be assimilated.

Good point.

 

[PeroK]

Isn't that what everybody everywhere wants?

It isn't. IMO, the 21st century is following the 20th as a battle between the human barbaric instinct and the human civilisation instinct. The Russian are engaged in pursuing a barbaric war that threatens both their peace and prosperity. And, it not just "zombified" Russians at home support the war. One of the world's greatest conductors, Valery Gergiev" has been forced to resign various positions because of his support for Putin. He worked for years in the West, no doubt became prosperous and saw a lot that was good about free western societies. Yet, he supports Putin and the war against Ukraine, apparently:

https://www.classicfm.com/artists/valery-gergiev/russian-conductor-putin-carnegie-hall/

 

[artis]

You've confused my point.

Yes I did confuse your point, now I got it.

This is nearly the opposite of wokeness as it's understood in the West

That was a very good summary of woke you wrote there. Indeed seems I have been lazy with using that word, lately due to all the social media, political barrage of new terms indeed it is easy to get confused.
I guess I could label myself closer to where hosts like Bill Maher are , as a liberal classic. I care for environment and peace but the nonsense that has taken hold lately to the point of denouncing basic science and biology seems crazy to me.

You have a good point about conservative politicians and support for foreign affairs. Indeed much has changed since Reagan which liked to poke the "bear" in the eye once in a while just to check it.
These days it seems that if given up to the harder conservative part of US they would not interfere in Ukraine affair at all. It's an open secret that NATO largely relies on US being in it.

 

[Borg]

That was a very good summary of woke you wrote there.

I think of the use of 'woke' these days as "You spoke out against something that I've been trying to hide so I'm going to ridicule you for it."

 

[neilparker62]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60794809

Well worth listening to especially against the family's historical background.

 

[neilparker62]

Any realistic chance president Zelensky could convince the Russian backing regions of Ukraine that they are better off in a loose confederation with Ukraine than as part of Russia under Putin? That would be quite an accomplishment.

A cheeky proposal Zelensky could put on the table would be a revival of the https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/commonwealth-independent-states-cis/#:~:text=Membership,Turkmenistan%2C%20Ukraine%2C%20and%20Uzbekistan.. Or has that become altogether irrelevant ?

 

[fresh_42]

There are Russian people who live in Finnland. Many because of marriage, some have holiday apartments, and others simply work there. Nothing special about it when you are neighbors.

I have seen a report among those Russians who are concerned, that they all of a sudden turn from being neighbors into being Russians. Btw., many of them organize help for the Ukrainian refugees.

No. What was terrifying is how they speak! There was a young couple, she was Russian and of course frequently has phone calls with her mother, their kid with her grandmother in Russia. And she is censoring herself and avoids certain topics and wordings because she fears about her mother at the other end of the line. This is a behavior I know very well from Ceaucescu's Romania. The hotel rooms had ears, the phone calls were taped, and you never knew who was friend or foe. Now, this is what Russia became: a stalinistic country!

 

[phinds]

Now, this is what Russia became: a stalinistic country!

Russians gave up real freedom under Putin for prosperity, which equates to Ben Franklin's "safety".

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Ben Franklin

And now the Russian have neither.

 

[fresh_42]

Ukraine's Kateryna Monsul will referee Inter Milan vs Sampdoria Genoa in the women's Serie A on Sunday at the invitation of the FIGC.

 

[wrobel]

“The Ukraine is the way the Russians referred to that part of the country during Soviet times

there is no article "the" in Russian. There are no articles in Russian at all

 

[wrobel]

And it is incorrect to refer to the Ukraine, even though a lot of people do it.

yes I saw it here many times and thought that I do not understand something in English

 

[DaveC426913]

there is no article "the" in Russian. There are no articles in Russian at all

It seems pretty complicated, yeah.

"...the Russian preposition в..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Name_of_Ukraine#English_definite_article

 

[wrobel]

"...the Russian preposition в..."

Oh, now I see. That is an echo of that endless stupid dispute.
In Russian language it is a classic tradition to speak "на Украине" that means "in Ukraine" Literally "на" is translated as "on". The modern "politically correct" version is to speak "в Украине". Literally "в" is translated as "in".
Actually both prepositions do not mark any ideology or political position. I am native Russian speaker but I do not understand why for example we speak "студент учится на физтехе" (a student studies at Moscow Institute of Phys and Tech ) but simultaneously we speak "студент учится в МГУ" ( a student studies at Moscow State Univ.)
The same story is in Polish: they by the way use "на' for Ukraine.

 

[DennisN]

A recent interview with exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky commenting on recent events.
He does not hold back in this interview... at all.
Among other things he calls Putin a Russian fascist, but there are many more things he talks about in the interview.

Beth Rigby Interviews... exiled Russian Mikhail Khodorkovsky (Sky News, 17th March 2022)

Sky News' Political Editor Beth Rigby sits down with exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky who believes President Putin is a "thug" and "a Hitler".

 

[wrobel]

A recent interview with exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky commenting on recent events.
He does not hold back in this interview... at all. Among other things he calls Putin a fascist, but there is far more things in the interview he talks about.

Beth Rigby Interviews... exiled Russian Mikhail Khodorkovsky (Sky News, 17th March 2022)

Sky News' Political Editor Beth Rigby sits down with exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky who believes President Putin is a "thug" and "a Hitler".

That is nice:
"the uploader has not made this video available in your country"

 

[DennisN]

That is nice:
"the uploader has not made this video available in your country"

I'm sorry to hear that.

 

[wrobel]

I'm sorry to hear that.

I understand the sanctions but I think that the uploader is an idiot and he should go to Kremlin to get a medal

 

[StevieTNZ]

I understand the sanctions but I think that the uploader is an idiot and he should go to Kremlin to get a medal

It could simply be due to copyright reasons. A lot of videos available in NZ aren't available for viewing in the USA, for example.

 

[artis]

Here is the yesterday's Crimean annexation and Ukraine war celebration festivity in Moscow's Luzhniki stadium.
Putin even quotes the Bible at one moment, pretty "rich" for a event like this...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60793319

For those that don't know - it's a ordinary practice in Russia and especially the former USSR to "volunteer" to attend such public gatherings if you work for a state company.
You can chose not to but then you might also chose to leave work and be unemployed , nothing is "mandatory" of course...