Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

This is a contradiction in itself. Either you have evidence or you are speculating. Do you have evidence?

Well I was lazy to search up sources but essentially if you aim to guard a city from enemy where else will you be than within the city or in the outskirts of it?
Like the situation in Kyiv for example, right now the Russian troops are kept a distance away but say they somehow get closer , where would the Ukrainian troops be then/retreat back to? In the/to the city of course.
See this clip from Mariupol
Again I am not saying Russian troops haven't specifically targeted civilian infrastructure like the hospital they blew up and the theater.
But either way if you have people trapped in a city in which active war is going on you will have casualties.
That's like a non smoker entering a room full of smokers , the smoke will latch on to you either way.

Some more clips from shooting in a city


here a bunch of Ukrainian civilians are given AK's and basic training to fight


Often their only insignia is a blue or yellow stripe around their arm

And here you can see a mix of some having full form while others having just a vest

 

[phinds]

Sadly, I have to say that I cringe every time I hear it said that Putin is a war criminal because his troops have deliberately targeted civilians including schools and hospitals, etc. They HAVE done that of course and it is utterly abhorrent and I deeply wish that someone would shoot Putin in the head.

BUT ... some of our younger members may not be entirely aware of it but in an apples to apples comparison, what the Russians have done so far in Ukraine pales in comparison to what the British and Americans did to Germany in WWII. We didn't JUST bomb schools and hospitals, hell, we did entire cities. Estimated 300,000 to 500,000 civilians dead.

Then of course, American went on to kill a few hundred thousand more civilians in Japan by fire bombing entire cities and then the A-bombs.

We did those things to defeat evil, not to capture other countries or gain territory or any other nefarious rational such as Putin is using and I support the necessity of what was done, especially in the case of Japan, I just want to point out that history is written by the winners and had we lost WWII, WE would have been the war criminals.

I do not in any way support what Russia is doing nor condemn what we did, BUT ... I think a sense of perspecive is in order when we apply a label to Russia that could have been applied to us.

 

[artis]

Then of course, American went on to kill a few hundred thousand more civilians in Japan by fire bombing entire cities and then the A-bombs.

Overall I have to agree to everything you said and it is true of course.

Indeed the same could be said about recent US wars in middle east, in any war civilians get hurt. And Taliban are experts at hiding behind civilians so it is to be expected.

Even though I get the point the A bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki made and how it saved US soldiers lives and ended the war finally but in all honesty I think it would be hard to find a more indiscriminate and one sided attack in history than that. Not in the sense that Japan wasn't an evil aggressor but in a sense that on one side you had army personnel flying high above and escaping safely and on the other side you had almost exclusively ordinary civilians who had to pay the price for both their own government's evil policy as well as they paid the price of "MAD" being successful for the next 70 or so years.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Putin stuns the world with shock move​

President Vladimir Putin has audaciously stated on live TV that Russia will only accept payments in rubles (Russian currency) for gas deliveries to "unfriendly countries", which include all EU members, after Moscow was hit by unprecedented sanctions over Ukraine.

It means that these nations will soon have to convert their payments to Russian rubles if they want gas.

"I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payment for our gas supplies to unfriendly countries into Russian rubles," Putin said during a televised government meeting, ordering the changes to be implemented within a week.

Putin ordered the nations' central bank to develop a mechanism to make ruble payments in a matter of days.

And more:
-- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...o-punish-the-west/VTB7CWUMMTRWSL4VGYOBPLTXYU/

 

[artis]

At this Ruble value accepting those payments in Rubles they will run out of paper and digits...

 

[pinball1970]

Here is a PolitiFact article that analyzes why this video is so good.
The video is very slick in a Hollywood way, but it also has a bunch of hooks well aimed at his audience.

Sadly, I have to say that I cringe every time I hear it said that Putin is a war criminal because his troops have deliberately targeted civilians including schools and hospitals, etc. They HAVE done that of course and it is utterly abhorrent and I deeply wish that someone would shoot Putin in the head.

BUT ... some of our younger members may not be entirely aware of it but in an apples to apples comparison, what the Russians have done so far in Ukraine pales in comparison to what the British and Americans did to Germany in WWII. We didn't JUST bomb schools and hospitals, hell, we did entire cities. Estimated 300,000 to 500,000 civilians dead.

Then of course, American went on to kill a few hundred thousand more civilians in Japan by fire bombing entire cities and then the A-bombs.

We did those things to defeat evil, not to capture other countries or gain territory or any other nefarious rational such as Putin is using and I support the necessity of what was done, especially in the case of Japan, I just want to point out that history is written by the winners and had we lost WWII, WE would have been the war criminals.

I do not in any way support what Russia is doing nor condemn what we did, BUT ... I think a sense of perspecive is in order when we apply a label to Russia that could have been applied to us.

Dresden and Cologne yes. Bomber Harris in 42

The aim of the Combined Bomber Offensive ... should be unambiguously stated [as] the destruction of German cities, the killing of German workers, and the disruption of civilised life throughout Germany ... the destruction of houses, public utilities, transport and lives, the creation of a refugee problem on an unprecedented scale, and the breakdown of morale both at home and at the battle fronts by fear of extended and intensified bombing, are accepted and intended aims of our bombing policy. They are not by-products of attempts to hit factories.[47]

Ukraine however are NOT part of an effort gain control areas of Europe. Russia are using tactics an an offense not retaliation

 

[pinball1970]

Overall I have to agree to everything you said and it is true of course.

Indeed the same could be said about recent US wars in middle east, in any war civilians get hurt. And Taliban are experts at hiding behind civilians so it is to be expected.

Even though I get the point the A bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki made and how it saved US soldiers lives and ended the war finally but in all honesty I think it would be hard to find a more indiscriminate and one sided attack in history than that. Not in the sense that Japan wasn't an evil aggressor but in a sense that on one side you had army personnel flying high above and escaping safely and on the other side you had almost exclusively ordinary civilians who had to pay the price for both their own government's evil policy as well as they paid the price of "MAD" being successful for the next 70 or so years.

Those bombs ended the war, we cannot look at that situation with 2022 eyes.

 

[wrobel]

Intention very matters in such things

 

[Astronuc]

Dresden and Cologne yes. Bomber Harris in 42

Not to diminish the horror of those campaigns, but the UK, with support of US, was reciprocating. Dresden of course was horrible, as was the deployment of nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as the fire bombing of Tokyo, . . . . But that was the 20th century. In the 21st century, nations should not be waging war on civilians - but they do - either intentionally or indiscriminately.

The Blitz was a German bombing campaign against the United Kingdom in 1940 and 1941, during the Second World War. The term was first used by the British press and originated from the term Blitzkrieg, the German word for 'lightning war'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blitz

The Germans conducted mass air attacks against industrial targets, towns, and cities, beginning with raids on London towards the end of the Battle of Britain in 1940 (a battle for daylight air superiority between the Luftwaffe and the Royal Air Force over the United Kingdom). By September 1940, the Luftwaffe had lost the Battle of Britain and the German air fleets (Luftflotten) were ordered to attack London, to draw RAF Fighter Command into a battle of annihilation. Adolf Hitler and Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring, commander-in-chief of the Luftwaffe, ordered the new policy on 6 September 1940. From 7 September 1940, London was systematically bombed by the Luftwaffe for 56 of the following 57 days and nights. Most notable was a large daylight attack against London on 15 September.

The Luftwaffe gradually decreased daylight operations in favour of night attacks to evade attacks by the RAF, and the Blitz became a night bombing campaign after October 1940. The Luftwaffe attacked the main Atlantic seaport of Liverpool in the Liverpool Blitz. The North Sea port of Hull, a convenient and easily found target or secondary target for bombers unable to locate their primary targets, suffered the Hull Blitz. The port cities of Bristol, Cardiff, Portsmouth, Plymouth, Southampton, Swansea, Belfast, and Glasgow were also bombed, as were the industrial centres of Birmingham, Coventry, Manchester and Sheffield. More than 40,000 civilians were killed by Luftwaffe bombing during the war, almost half of them in the capital, where more than a million houses were destroyed or damaged.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Blitz
Around 4,000 people were killed in the Merseyside area during the Blitz. This death toll was second only to London, which suffered over 40,000 by the end of the war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hull_Blitz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Blitz
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coventry_Blitz
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_Blitz
(Around 1,852 tons of bombs were dropped on Birmingham, making it the third most heavily bombed city in the United Kingdom in the Second World War, behind London and Liverpool.)

 

[russ_watters]

Sadly, I have to say that I cringe every time I hear it said that Putin is a war criminal because his troops have deliberately targeted civilians including schools and hospitals, etc. They HAVE done that of course and it is utterly abhorrent and I deeply wish that someone would shoot Putin in the head...

BUT ... some of our younger members may not be entirely aware of it but in an apples to apples comparison, what the Russians have done so far in Ukraine pales in comparison to what the British and Americans did to Germany in WWII...

I do not in any way support what Russia is doing nor condemn what we did, BUT ... I think a sense of perspecive is in order when we apply a label to Russia that could have been applied to us.

You're missing a key piece of perspective (context): The laws of war were tightened following WWII, so no, the label being applied to Putin's actions does not apply to the allied conduct of WWII.

 

[artis]

If we go far enough back in history we see that at some point everyone has been evil to everyone else and there is no clear "good guy" vs "bad guy".

The laws of war were tightened following WWII, so no, the label being applied to Putin's actions does not apply to the conduct of WWII.

The same will be said 70 years after WW3. (Written down on stone tablets that is)

After every major conflict everyone promises to be better in the future until they are not.
I think it's a question of time and right circumstances - major war that is
New empires are born and they forget the sins of the older extinct ones but they follow in similar footsteps at some point that lead up to the same result that ended in the extinction of the previous ones.

 

[russ_watters]

After every major conflict everyone promises to be better in the future until they are not.

Except that they actually really are. Wars have gotten safer overall for civilians since WWII and in particular in the past 40 years. At the very least, western countries have actually largely respected the laws regarding the conduct of war and associated protection of civilians.

 

[gleem]

They are, they just have to be readily identifiable as combatants.

How about carrying a gun?

 

[russ_watters]

How about carrying a gun?

That counts, yes. But you can't run outside of your apartment building with your gun, shoot at some Russians, drop the gun and then run back inside and expect the building to be treated as a civilian building. Hopefully the Ukrainians are making smart choices about how they conduct the war.

 

[bob012345]

Sadly, I have to say that I cringe every time I hear it said that Putin is a war criminal because his troops have deliberately targeted civilians including schools and hospitals, etc. They HAVE done that of course and it is utterly abhorrent and I deeply wish that someone would shoot Putin in the head.

BUT ... some of our younger members may not be entirely aware of it but in an apples to apples comparison, what the Russians have done so far in Ukraine pales in comparison to what the British and Americans did to Germany in WWII. We didn't JUST bomb schools and hospitals, hell, we did entire cities. Estimated 300,000 to 500,000 civilians dead.

Then of course, American went on to kill a few hundred thousand more civilians in Japan by fire bombing entire cities and then the A-bombs.

We did those things to defeat evil, not to capture other countries or gain territory or any other nefarious rational such as Putin is using and I support the necessity of what was done, especially in the case of Japan, I just want to point out that history is written by the winners and had we lost WWII, WE would have been the war criminals.

I do not in any way support what Russia is doing nor condemn what we did, BUT ... I think a sense of perspecive is in order when we apply a label to Russia that could have been applied to us.

I think the comparison is out of place. The proper comparison is to the London Blitz where Germany relentlessly bombed London with no provocation then later the Buzz bombs and V2 rockets.

 

[fresh_42]

You know, guys, that WWII is not the subject of this thread?

 

[bob012345]

You know, guys, that WWII is not the subject of this thread?

Yes but comparisons to Putin's behaviour seem appropriate.

 

[Klystron]

You know, guys, that WWII is not the subject of this thread?

PF has this active thread on the two World Wars. I am sure analysis from 2022 perspective is welcome.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/for-ww1-ww2-history-buffs.955592/page-3#post-6613260

 

[fresh_42]

Comparisons, ok. But you counted crime wars and discussed which ones have been more severe. You even listed single events. Before I have to clean up this mess or even ban participants, and I'm lazy, I thought I better tell.

 

[DennisN]

Here is a New Yorker interview with Andrei Soldatov, an investigative journalist and an expert on the Russian state’s intelligence apparatus.
(You get some number of free articles.)
He discusses who has power, who is talking to who, where his contacts are now, what Putin's mad about, etc.
Interesting article.

Interesting article! Thanks for posting!

 

[morrobay]

This commentary by Thomas Friedman NYT outlines Putin's plans A,B,C,D : Plan A Failed with the expectation that the Russian army could just march into Ukraine and and the whole country would fall peacefully into Russian arms. Plan B in progress is that the Russian army deliberately fires upon Ukrainian civilians, apartments, hospitals for the purpose of causing a massive refuge crisis in Ukraine and nearby NATO countries.Plan C Friedman is guessing that Russia could launch rocket attacks on military supply lines in Poland. Plan D if Plans A,B,C fail is the possibility of Putin using chemical or nuclear weapons.

 

[DennisN]

People in Russia are scared and suppressed indeed. And what I see on utube: journalists of RadioLiberty are conducting a survey on the streets of Moscow. They stop a passerby and ask him with a microphone and a video camera. Surprise, surprise: 100% respondents happily support the so called "special military operation" in Ukraine and Putin and etc. What is the sh$t? Why do not these fair journalists report how many people just denied to speak when saw the label "RadioLiberty" and the video camera? Who benefits from such a picture?

I've watched a youtube channel with various recent interviews of Russians.
I don't know who runs the channel, but the answers in the interviews are quite varied (depending on what is asked).

What strikes me the most from watching the interviews is the feeling of slight hesitancy of speaking (some more, some less) and also the carefulness of choosing what to say (when the questions are about more sensitive matters). At least that's how I perceived it.

(I posted a link to the channel here, but I changed my mind and removed the link)

 

[Frabjous]

Speaks for itself.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country’s war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent clumsiness and disorganization of the Russian assault.

 

[Astronuc]

Guardian - US formally accuses Russia of war crimes in Ukraine
Blinken cited ‘indiscriminate attacks and attacks deliberately targeting civilians, as well as other atrocities’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/russia-war-crimes-ukraine-us-blinken

Also report in LA Times - https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...ine-russia-mariupol-crisis-biden-visit-europe

Considering that Putin's military forces attacked Ukraine without provocation, i.e., Ukraine was not invading or attacking Russia, then the use of military force by Russia against Ukraine is a violation of international law, i.e., it is illegal. Combined with targeting civilians, every Russian military action is a war crime, and Putin is a mass murderer.

AP News - US finds Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...blinken-nato-fa0786b41cd876208771017aa1abab13
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/...-committed-war-crimes-in-ukraine-blinken-says

Biden raises stakes with allegations of Russian war crimes
https://thehill.com/policy/internat...stakes-with-allegations-of-russian-war-crimes

 

[geordief]

The BBC (Frank Gardner,I think) is reporting that Russian armed drones are largely operating with impunity in Ukraine

How serious would that be and what could the Ukrainians do about it?

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533

 

[Astronuc]

How serious would that be and what could the Ukrainians do about it?

The Ukrainian military needs more drones, or better yet, fighter jets which NATO apparently will not supply.

Ukraine really needs a no-fly zone!

 

[bob012345]

The Ukrainian military needs more drones, or better yet, fighter jets which NATO apparently will not supply.

Ukraine really needs a no-fly zone!

Ukraine Air Force seems to be holding its own for now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/world/europe/ukraine-air-force-russia.html

 

[DennisN]

Ukrainian Air Force seems to be holding its own for now.

I read an interview with a Ukrainian pilot who said there were ca 5 times more Russian planes (than Ukrainian) operating in Ukraine. I assume he was referring to sorties (combat missions of individual aircraft).
I've also read someone saying Ukraine will run out of planes before they run out of pilots.

I also remember reading that the safety of flying in Ukraine varies greatly depending on where you fly. It is also my understanding that Russian anti-aircraft weapons are pretty good, if I remember correctly.

I've got no source at the moment, because I read so many different articles and I seldom save the links. But I will try to find the article again, and post it here if I find it.

 

[DennisN]

I've got no source at the moment, because I read so many different articles and I seldom save the links. But I will try to find the article again, and post it here if I find it.

I don't think it was this article I read, but here's one interview:

Ukrainian Fighter Pilots Describe Their Desperate Air War Against Russia (The Drive, March 22, 2022)
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...scribe-their-desperate-air-war-against-russia

[...]
“Every time when I fly, it’s for a real fight,” Andriy explains. “In every fight with Russian jets, there is no equality. They always have five times more” aircraft in the air.
[...]

 

[valenumr]

Reuters reports that Anatoly Chubais, Putin's first boss under Yeltsin, quits and leaves Russia.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...e-stalled-besieged-mariupol-burns-2022-03-23/ (registration or subscription may be required).

Chubais was one of the principal architects of the economic reforms under Yeltsin in the 1990s. Chubais went on to run some big state business under Putin and held some political positions, and lately served as a special envoy to some international organizations.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Medvedev's statement warning US about a "nuclear dystopia" as Putin's regime claims the US is pushing forward with a conspiracy to destroy Russia. And apparently, the US and NATO are supposed to let Russia take Ukraine, or destroy it, and mind their own business.
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-ally-says-united-states-is-trying-destroy-russia-2022-03-23/

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-23/putin-ally-says-the-united-states-is-trying-to-destroy-russia

Of course, Putin's claims are nonsense. One cannot reason with a delusional mind.

That was basically his oldest and closest ally.

 

[Astronuc]

Speaks for itself.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html

I would have thought the top military persons responsible for the Ukraine invasion would be the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, and they would have generals reporting to them.

Apparently Russian military officials are not responding to calls from US, and the concern is for 'major miscalculations' or a 'battlefield accident'.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati.../23/russia-us-military-leaders-communication/

 

[Office_Shredder]

I would have thought the top military persons responsible for the Ukraine invasion would be the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, and they would have generals reporting to them.

That's too high level. You need a military person in charge of the actual operation on the ground, the defense minister can make strategic decisions (e.g. should we use nuclear weapons, is it worth 30,000 casualties to take kyiv, etc.) but will not be making tactical decisions, like the best way to deploy forces along the different fronts to best accomplish your goals.
In the us invasion of Iraq that person was Tommy Franks.

 

[bob012345]

In an AP article a NATO official said 30,000 to 40,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been either killed or wounded.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...-europe-nato-e35e54b40359e52f3ffd4911577b669a

 

[phinds]

In an AP article a NATO official said 30,000 to 40,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been killed or wounded.

Have heard that in a couple of news reports. Not sure why, but it just seems unlikely to me (too high a number). This is not WWI where masses of troops were sent into machine gun fire.

 

[bob012345]

Have heard that in a couple of news reports. Not sure why, but it just seems unlikely to me (too high a number). This is not WWI where masses of troops were sent into machine gun fire.

No, it's not but there appears to be fierce, intense fighting in many places around the country that has been going on for a month now between a highly motivated force and a seemingly demoralized force. According to CNBC the number includes killed, wounded, captured or MIA. But numbers can be unreliable in the fog of war.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/up-...killed-wounded-captured-or-mia-nato-says.html