Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

Very interesting interview of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who among other things talks about resistance to possibly send troops into Ukraine (that is, supporting Russia) among both the Belarusian people and inside the armed forces of Belarus. She also talks about transportation sabotage having been carried out in Belarus, and that the fates of Ukraine and Belarus are interconnected.

Will Belarus join Russia's invasion of Ukraine? (DW News, Mar 22, 2022)

 

[valenumr]

You're missing a key piece of perspective (context): The laws of war were tightened following WWII, so no, the label being applied to Putin's actions does not apply to the allied conduct of WWII.

Yes, we actually try to be better. War will never not be ugly, but I think bright lines that were established 75 years ago have been crossed in this case.

 

[valenumr]

That's too high level. You need a military person in charge of the actual operation on the ground, the defense minister can make strategic decisions (e.g. should we use nuclear weapons, is it worth 30,000 casualties to take kyiv, etc.) but will not be making tactical decisions, like the best way to deploy forces along the different fronts to best accomplish your goals.
In the us invasion of Iraq that person was Tommy Franks.

Russian military is heavy on the brass and grunts. They don't have NCOs at all, and their troops are not encouraged to take initiative. They have a bunch of commander's who've achieved their position without any sort of merit that are in charge of a bunch of, well, not much more than manual labor with no command and control infrastructure, communication, or coordination. It's literally a bunch of poor kids who have no idea what's going on and no idea what to do.

 

[Rive]

Might be a step to relieve the pressure on Mariupol?

 

[artis]

I also remember reading that the safety of flying in Ukraine varies greatly depending on where you fly. It is also my understanding that Russian anti-aircraft weapons are pretty good, if I remember correctly.

Sure, everything North towards Belarus and Russia is full of SAM's so one can google up the current maps and see for themselves where it would be safer.
As for the Russian rockets, back in the early days they lacked the altitude and range for interceptors and had no U2 analog so they made some good SAM's etc. Back in 1960 the Soviets IIRC did not have a interceptor capable of the altitude of the CIA's run U2 spy plane, they only got that with the MIG 25 later.
But they did have S-75 (Russian C-75) SAM's which shot down the American U2 with the whole political theater that followed and Gary Powers becoming a known historical figure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_U-2_incident
Then the same SAM system shot down another U2 plane over Cuba in 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_AndersonThe S-75 has been among the most widely used SAM in history but the wiki list of both current and former operators don't include Ukraine not sure why, maybe they were never deployed there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-75_DvinaBut Ukraine does have the S-75 lower altitude slower flying cousin the S-125
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-125_Neva/Pechora

The Yugoslavs managed to shoot down the US F-117 and an F-16 with these. Can't see why Ukrainians couldn't do the same or more.

They had scrapped these it seems back in 2013 but later returned to service.
https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-scrapped-s-125-missile-systems-return-to-service/

Here's a rather telling Forbes article from just December of last year. The language is as if the war is inevitable, well Forbes got it right, they have a nice summary of Ukrainian air defenses.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...nd-control-of-ukraines-skies/?sh=5212083d3e69It seems Ukrainian leftover SAM's and jets (not considering the possible or already given supply from NATO recently)
have done a rather good job.
https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...ense-proves-unexpectedly-effective-in-combat/

According to Military Balance 2021, Ukraine operated a total of 250 (??) S-300 family long-range air defense systems, namely S-300P/PS/PT units (NATO reporting name SA-10 Grumble).Besides, Ukraine was also believed to have had nearly 72 Buk-M1 systems (SA-11 Gadfly), and a number of short-range S-125 Pechora (SA-3 Goa) systems on the ground.

But when it comes to the Kyiv metropolitan area, as experts suggest, the air defense grid is considerably reducing or completely denying Russia’s air activity over the city.

So maybe the Russians are "beating around the bush" with respect to air superiority also because Ukraine does posses the minimum Soviet era SAM's to make sure they can inflict considerable losses to approaching aircraft? In terms of air it seems like almost a stalemate, Ukrainians don't fly into Russian zones (apart from some drone activity on troops) and Russians even though having technical advantage aren't flying much into Kyiv or elsewhere. Earlier it was pointed out that this could be because of their lack of training for complex air operations, but maybe there are also other reasons like the one mentioned/speculated here.
I tried searching for info on this but found no reliable sources.Here is a really really good article, with the added expert opinion and some details on what Ukraine has "in store"
https://coffeeordie.com/ukraine-airspace/

The Kyiv Independent reported Wednesday that Ukraine operated a total of 250 S-300s and was also believed to have had nearly 72 Buk-M1 systems and a number of short-range S-125s

But again as with all numbers Ukrainian now one cannot be sure, the number given by the Kyiv newspaper seems too high.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system
Wikipedia gives a vastly differing count

S-300PT, S-300PS, S-300V.[138] Only six systems were kept in working conditions between 2004 and 2014; as a result only 40% of Ukrainian S-300 systems were in good condition prior to 2014.[139] Due to the war with Russia Ukraine started repairing and pushing back to service several armaments included several S-300 batteries,[140] with at least 4 batteries overhauled in the period 2014–15. 34 launchers remained in the Crimea after 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea

Ukraine does have a company that apparently rebuilds these things and services them. maybe they have increased their ready stockpile in the last years.
https://en.uos.ua/produktsiya/tehnika-pvo/77-zenitniy-raketniy-kompleks-s-300ps

PS. Let me give you an "open secret" whichever number is correct for Ukrainian SAM units in combat ready condition, we here in Baltics have NONE, we have exactly 0 SAM units as of today.
And we are part of NATO...
Since the start of this war our politicians have raised awareness to this rather laughable state of affairs and hopefully the situation will change.Anyway, some fun pictures, apparently some of the early S-75 Soviet SAM battery ground layout was in the form of hexagon, but from air it looked like this..."the star of David"

 

[wrobel]

If we go far enough back in history we see that at some point everyone has been evil to everyone else and there is no clear "good guy" vs "bad guy".

I disagree. In Ukraine it is clear : bad guys invade; good guys defend.

 

[artis]

I disagree. In Ukraine it is clear : bad guys invade; good guys defend.

I was generalizing, if you look at specific periods and regions sure the good guy VS bad guy is more defined.

 

[artis]

Apparently Ukrainian drone with thermal camera supplied by Estonians "steering" a Ukrainian "Grad" attack on Russian troops during night. Ukraine seems to have such artillery
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad

 

[pinball1970]

Apparently Ukrainian drone with thermal camera supplied by Estonians "steering" a Ukrainian "Grad" attack on Russian troops during night. Ukraine seems to have such artillery
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad

Every strike on Russian position is a kick in the teeth for Putin. Good.
However every explosion is a few lives lost potentially, I cannot think that a trained soldier with honour and professionalism would be happy invading a country and attacking civilian targets, apartment blocks schools and hospitals killing women and children.

 

[pinball1970]

You know, guys, that WWII is not the subject of this thread?

Parallels are inevitable Fresh, they not deliberate tangents. I don't think anyone is forgetting what is transpiring right now for one minute in Ukraine.
Anyway the air force appears to be holding its own and also at dock. This must be a blow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60859337

 

[artis]

To add to @pinball1970 post which he beat me to it, another video of the Russian ship being what it seems "sabotaged" while the two other ships are fleeing the burning one. I suppose some ammunition is exploding on board given the sound

 

[artis]

The ship in question that was destroyed today,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alligator-class_landing_ship

A total of 14 vessels were completed between 1964 and 1975; all were retired between 1992 and 1995.[2]

As of September 2008, two vessels, currently named Orsk and Saratov, were in active service with the 197th Brigade of Landing Ships in the Russian Black Sea Fleet.[3] As of March 2014, the Saratov and Nikolay Filchenkov were in service with the 197th Brigade of Landing Ships in the Black Sea Fleet, the Nikolay Vilkov was in service with the 100th Brigade of Landing Ships in the Russian Pacific Fleet, and the Orsk was inactive and undergoing refits

Apparently not the biggest loss for the Russians, as most of these were retired some time ago anyway,and then 2 put back on service as it seems, but still it probably had some munition and vehicles on board that got blown up (which explains the explosions) so another victory for Ukraine.

The ship is seen here some time ago

 

[artis]

 

[Vanadium 50]

They don't have NCOs at all, and their troops are not encouraged to take initiative.

Maps are - or at least were 30 years ago - were restricted documents only allowed to be used by officers.

 

[artis]

Except that they actually really are. Wars have gotten safer overall for civilians since WWII and in particular in the past 40 years. At the very least, western countries have actually largely respected the laws regarding the conduct of war and associated protection of civilians.

With the hope of not straying too much from topic I just want to emphasize that the overall world peace that was existent from the end of the WW2 up until now is not a definite and clear accomplishment which supersedes previous similar periods in history.
We can look back at the "Pax Romana" time during Roman empire which lasted about 200 years.
So we currently still have more than 100 years to reach that previous "record"
As for how wars have gotten safer for civilians, I agree they have, but that I would argue is mostly due to advances in medicine and technology and much less due to the betterment of human nature.

On the other hand our weapons have become far more lethal so any disturbance in major world balance , like WW3 would cause an extreme level of suffering and death toll that any previous wars would have failed to bring forth simply due to lack of weapon capabilities.If history is any measure then I would say that we have been most at peace during "status quo" periods of large empires, even if those empires are violent towards minorities or wage proxy wars.
Examples would be Roman period, British period, and the 20th century bipolar USSR-USA world domination.
But now we are once again in a period of the old ways changing and new empires like China emerging (rather rising again) and countless variables with the Middle East in the "middle" etc, so for me it is not a given that such peace as was until now is sustainable in the long term but well see I guess.I would say it's important for Ukraine to win not just for itself , but also for other purposes like showing China that an invasion of Taiwan would be just as bad of an idea.

 

[artis]

Meanwhile "The Emperor's new clothes"...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion...ian-label-became-vladimir-putins-go-to-brand/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ssure-condemn-Vladimir-Putin-10-500-coat.html

Vladimir seems to also enjoy the finer things in life, contrary to his countrymen, I mean an outfit costing more than a used family sedan is quite a living if you ask me.
And then there is the Putin personal palace and compound which Navalny and his helpers first filmed from a drone. Till this day nobody acknowledges ownership of the property...

 

[Oldman too]

I just don't have words to describe what's going on in this video...
Not much doubt about "war crimes" after listening to the audio.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Hacking collective Anonymous claims it has hacked Russia's Central Bank

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to the condemnation of the world, the cyberwar is also continuing with Anonymous claiming a new high-profile scalp.

The hacking collective announced on its Twitter account that it had hacked Russia's Central Bank and that 35,000 files would be released within 48 hours "with secret agreements".

-- https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/tech...aims-it-has-hacked-russia-s-central-bank.html

 

[Oldman too]

Hacking collective Anonymous claims it has hacked Russia's Central Bank
-- https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/tech...aims-it-has-hacked-russia-s-central-bank.html

The Hackers are having a "free for all" even with one another. I see they also hacked printers to distribute their message.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/tech...-messages-as-anonymous-targets-companies.html

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/ne...r-models-vulnerable-to-remote-code-execution/
"HP has published security advisories for three critical-severity vulnerabilities affecting hundreds of its LaserJet Pro, Pagewide Pro, OfficeJet, Enterprise, Large Format, and DeskJet printer models."

 

[DennisN]

Ukraine War: Civilians abducted as Russia tries to assert control (BBC, 25th March 2022)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60858363

Ukrainians are being arbitrarily detained and subjected to enforced disappearances in Russian-controlled areas, the UN has told the BBC.

At least 36 cases of civilian detentions were verified by the UN, with families often denied any information about the fate of those being held.

Ukrainians say they fear an escalating campaign of kidnappings and intimidation, as Russia struggles to assert control over towns it captures.

[...]

 

[artis]

I just don't have words to describe what's going on in this video...
Not much doubt about "war crimes" after listening to the audio.

IIRC @berkeman here did something with HAM , but anyway I think those must be local radio amateurs picking up these army soldier talks via radio as I suppose that is done with "walkie -talkies" and for them the signal couldn't propagate that far right? So One has to be rather close to the signal to record it?

 

[Oldman too]

IIRC @berkeman here did something with HAM , but anyway I think those must be local radio amateurs picking up these army soldier talks via radio as I suppose that is done with "walkie -talkies" and for them the signal couldn't propagate that far right? So One has to be rather close to the signal to record it?

Hi Artis,
I would defer to Berkeman on the capabilities of Ham, I'm not familiar with the limitations and advantages. I'm pretty sure that, being shortwave radio, the range is dictated by atmospheric conditions etc.

I believe the transmissions recorded were, among other things, between pilots and some ground crew and could be intercepted by anyone with a scanner. I don't understand why they aren't using an encrypted frequency being military, kind of a critical Faux Pas for a supposedly modern force. Maybe its a newfangled version of glasnost, at any rate they are pretty much busted by their own words. As for needing to be close to the source, I'd think someone with good equipment, anywhere in Europe or likely further could tune in.
Take care, Scott

 

[DennisN]

I just read this on The Guardian's live blog which I thought was quite interesting:

Russia to focus on Donbass region - Russian Interfax news agency

Russia will focus on completely so-called “liberating” Ukraine’s Donbass region and does not rule out the possibility of storming blockaded Ukrainian cities, according to Russian news agency Interfax, citing the defence ministry and army.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its so-called “special operation” in Ukraine – one solely within the self-proclaimed separatist republics in Donbass and the other on the whole territory of Ukraine, Interfax reported.

If this is correct, it could possibly signal a change of objectives for the Russian military.
At least that is how I interpreted it when I read it.
Interesting, I think.

 

[bob012345]

I just read this on The Guardian's live blog which I thought was quite interesting:
If this is correct, it could possibly signal a change of objectives for the Russian military.
At least that is how I interpreted it when I read it.
Interesting, I think.

It seems like a retreat from the rest of Ukraine but should Ukraine let Donbass go when ethnic Russians are in the minority there? It seems like that would only allow Putin to claim victory and take the rest of Ukraine later. I hope Ukraine deals the fatal blow to Russia's ambitions in Ukraine now.

 

[DennisN]

It seems like a retreat from the rest of Ukraine but should Ukraine let Donbass go when ethnic Russians are in the minority there?

I don't think Ukraine will do that. That is, I don't think they will negotiate away Donbass. Nor Crimea. But retaking of lost territories may take time. But I think time is on the Ukrainian side*.

It seems like that would only allow Putin to claim victory and take the rest of Ukraine later.

When the fighting stops, I think it's likely he will claim some victory, at least to his own people, in order to support his hold on power. But I think the tough times for Russia has only started*. Ukraine may over time be in a much better negotiation position*.

I hope Ukraine deals the fatal blow to Russia's ambitions in Ukraine now.

So do I.

* The Western sanctions are tough, very tough. And I'd say they most likely will not end when there's a ceasefire (or a withdrawal of Russian troops). Because of the sanctions and the tough condemnation from a large part of the rest of the world and the very bad PR for the Putin regime, Russia may come to experience more and more internal instability as time passes.

Personally I think the sooner Putin is gone from power, the better Russia and the rest of the world will be. But what eventually will happen, well probably nobody knows at the moment.

Edit: And regarding lifting sanctions in the future, I don't think they will be used as an "on/off"-switch. I think it will be a gradual lifting over time, depending on what happens with the policy of Russia. My 2 cents.

 

[artis]

I want to put out an example, a proven one, on how modern easy access software, AI tools and computers can manipulate footage and create lies. Arguably this is a simplistic attempt but I'm sure there have been more sophisticated fabrications out there. I will try to be short.
Yesterday I saw in a local news coverage a somewhat low resolution video and the claim was that it shows how Ukrainian fighters have shot down 4 Russian attack helicopters like "one by one" , it didn't sound right. I mean glory to Ukraine..., but that much luck, really?
Then it seems the source came from Ukraine's ministry of defense itself (no wonder the news were so chill about retelling the story) Later the ministry deleted the tweet but as with most info nowadays many already had saved the tweet , so here is the tweet.
Here a Ukrainian news agency still has the wrong info displayed
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/817429.html

Near Kherson this morning, air defense crews of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine masterfully eliminated four K-52 helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces

Here is the video originally used by Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in their twitter story
And here is the same video , uploaded days before any of this happened , clearly stating that this is a video game "ARMA-3", the footage is pure CGI.
Seems like now Ukraine claims just 1 shot helicopter and it's not mentioned where it happened
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/03/24/operational-information-on-06-00-24-03-2022-regarding-the-russian-invasion/
This is the same thing as with the numbers. Ukraine claimed about 10k killed Russian soldiers already by the end of first week of war, then from more trustworthy sources we now know that only now after 4 weeks of fighting about 10k soldiers have died , maybe more, NATO current upper number is 14k.
I have also noticed that the same attacked and destroyed column has been shown more than one time but each time the claim is it's a different one in a different place.

I mean I understand the need to "keep up the spirits" but I don't agree that lying is the way to do it, especially when truth and justice is already on your side.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Counting casualties is not an easy task. If three people each shoot a tank, and then they each report killing the three Russians inside of it, you've over counted by a factor of 3. If someone shoots a tank, but it was empty, you over counted by a factor of infinity. The Ukrainian number was a bit high at first probably, but nothing out of the ordinary when doing these kinds of things. The current Ukrainian number is 16k, which is not that far from the NATO guess. And there's no specific reason to think the NATO guess is 100% accurate, they're just doing the best with the info they have.

 

[vela]

Here's a hopeful take from Eliot Cohen in The Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefingunsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.​

 

[Klystron]

When I first left home for war, my war veteran father and uncles warned me about misinformation, intentional and simply due to lack of authentic data. Misunderstandings abound.

Consider this comment "Russian forces in Ukraine have no NCO's". Incorrect.

https://military-history.fandom.com...tion?msclkid=4d34c24bac6b11ec9380b6983677aee5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation

Perhaps, the 2010 insignia changes where senior NCOs changed from flashy shoulder boards to small dark stripes, confused commenters into thinking everyone not an officer was a private.

March 11, 2010, by virtue of Law No.2010-293 of the President of Russia, a new set of rank insignia debuted. Privates, Airmen and Seamen sport plain shoulder epaulettes and the chevrons removed for the ranks of senior NCOs and are now replaced by plain bars (small horizontal from Corporal/Senior Airman/Leading Seaman to Sergeant/Staff Sergeant/Petty Officer increasing by seniority, large horizontal for Staff Sergeants, Flight Sergeants and Chief Petty Officers, and vertical bars for Starshinas and Ship CPO's), mirroring Imperial Russian Army and 1970s Soviet Army insignia.

I often simulated a Soviet senior technical Starshina during NATO war games, with considerable authority in the field. Senior NCO's move around regularly during mobile exercises, giving the impression of unsupervised privates. Also, the new insignia may go unnoticed, as intended.

 

[bob012345]

When I first left home for war, my war veteran father and uncles warned me about misinformation, intentional and simply due to lack of authentic data. Misunderstandings abound.

Consider this comment "Russian forces in Ukraine have no NCO's". Incorrect.

https://military-history.fandom.com...tion?msclkid=4d34c24bac6b11ec9380b6983677aee5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation

Perhaps, the 2010 insignia changes where senior NCOs changed from flashy shoulder boards to small dark stripes, confused commenters into thinking everyone not an officer was a private.
I often simulated a Soviet senior technical Starshina during NATO war games, with considerable authority in the field. Senior NCO's move around regularly during mobile exercises, giving the impression of unsupervised privates. Also, the new insignia may go unnoticed, as intended.

Obviously there has been some hype on both sides as to be expected but if the Russians have been clever in Ukraine I see little evidence of it so far. Perhaps their master plan is to appear so incompetent as to mislead the Ukrainians and then when they have them where they want them, at the point of victory, sweep in for the kill.

 

[geordief]

, sweep in for the kill.

Or swoop in for the krill(unless that was Finland)

 

[Klystron]

Obviously there has been some hype on both sides as to be expected but if the Russians have been clever in Ukraine I see little evidence of it so far. Perhaps their master plan is to appear so incompetent as to mislead the Ukrainians and then when they have them where they want them, at the point of victory, sweep in for the kill.

Bob has brought up an interesting point different than my comment about identifying NCOs based on uniform insignia.

Several senior NATO officers visiting 'aggressor' sites after missions discussed how well organized we (US aggressors) acted and communicated over long distances even in the midst of countermeasures including intense jamming.

We simulated the best Soviet systems mid 1970's using refurbished equipment, emulated some of what we knew of Soviet deployment limitations such as poor clothing and rations, but we were highly trained volunteers with experienced NCOs, employing some tricky applied mathematics that likely far surpassed typical USSR methods.

One can argue that aggressor simulations performed well above typical Soviet deployments, but that made training missions even more valuable. A NATO crew blasted by wily aggressors a few times learned how to survive actual warfare.

This works both ways. Friendly forces could not actually kill us or permanently annihilate our gadgetry. We learned and adapted from each mission, modifying systems faster than an actual enemy bureaucracy would ever allow. Here is the nugget:

American / NATO troops can operate independently using sound judgement. Soviet / Russians rely on rigid top-down command and control structures that inhibit and discourage individual initiative. Current Russian military problems support this hypothesis. Free people are more flexible.

 

[phinds]

Free people are more flexible.

Well, some of us free people have gotten a bit stiff in our old age

 

[bob012345]

Here is the nugget:

American / NATO troops can operate independently using sound judgement. Soviet / Russians rely on rigid top-down command and control structures that inhibit and discourage individual initiative. Current Russian military problems support this hypothesis. Free people are more flexible.

But can they learn and modify their command and control structure? I would have to assume Putin is not going to let this happen again. Perhaps he will practice on Moldova.

 

[Klystron]

But can they learn and modify their command and control structure? I would have to assume Putin is not going to let this happen again. Perhaps he will practice on Moldova.

IDK. I read several papers BItD that indicated the problem was likely cultural. We are taught to question authority, think 'outside the box', form competitive teams that cooperate, think for ourselves but toward a common good. Compromise. Keep an open mind. Adapt to conditions.

None of these concepts apply to everyone but are not contradicted by a university education. Knowing little about Russian Federation education system, authoritative and totalitarian societies do not seem to promote free thinking or independent action. Colleagues from ex-Warsaw Pact countries describe an inflexible heavy handed system from Russia that discouraged change.