Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[russ_watters]

I saw an accusation that Americans and Europeans are being racist because their outrage comes only when the victims are white. Ouch. That stung because is sounds at least partially true.

It may be partially true, but just to make sure it's on the table, the other angle is pretty direct: Russia/USSR is a direct enemy of and threat to pretty much the rest of Europe, and the people taking in refugees can likely easily visualize themselves being next (even if it's really unlikely).

I'm really against the assumption of racist intent in the absence of a viable alternative reason, but especially so when there is a viable alternative reason.

 

[pinball1970]

The promise to decrease the shelling on cities in Ukraine has not materialised.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60925713
Also Russia is recruiting Syrians to help with the war effort.
A country you would think had had enough of war, Putin is offering money though according to the report.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The promise to decrease the shelling on cities in Ukraine has not materialised.

Like the promise that Russia would ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine? Shocking! Just shocking!

 

[pinball1970]

Like the promise that Russia would ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine? Shocking! Just shocking!

Yeah ok I get that. However, not everything has gone to plan for Putin and one has to hope that talks now may yield some promises we think may materialize.
Not this time.
The Ukraine is asking for more weapons, let's get those to them as quickly as possible and repay those broken promises.

 

[phinds]

The Ukraine is asking for more weapons, let's get those to them as quickly as possible and repay those broken promises.

+1 on that

 

[DennisN]

Here are two more interesting recent interviews.

The first one is with Leonid Volkov, an aide to Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who among other things echoes things said by Bill Browder in an interview about sanctions I posted before (namely that Putin is concerned with his personal possessions).

Top Navalny aide: 'Putin shortened his time in power when he went to war in Ukraine' (FRANCE 24,
Mar 29, 2022)
Leonid Volkov, a top aide to jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, spoke to FRANCE 24 from the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Tuesday. He expressed concern about the safety of his boss, who was recently sentenced to nine more years in prison, saying that the world “should keep an eye on him”.



The second one is with Fiona Hill on recent events and a variety of topics, including the near future. Very interesting, I think.

Fiona Hill on a “Neutral Ukraine,” Nuclear Threat and Russia’s Doomed Economy (Amanpour and Company, Mar 29, 2022)

Fiona Hill is a former national security official specializing in European and Russian affairs, and was an impeachment witness against Donald Trump in 2019. She speaks with Walter Isaacson about the impact of Biden’s remarks in Warsaw this weekend -- which the White House insists were not a call for regime change in Russia – and how Putin is likely to react.

 

[DennisN]

I tried to find the interview on youtube but it isn't up yet, so here it is on Christiane Amanpour's Twitter:

The interview with former Russian parliament member Ilya Ponomarev who is fighting in Ukraine for Ukraine is up on CNN:s youtube now. I post it here since the interview was actually longer than the one posted on Twitter (please note that the interview is a couple of days old now).

'Unfortunately, I was right': Russian politician-turned-dissident speaks out (CNN, Mar 29, 2022)

CNN Christiane Amanpour speaks with Russian dissident Ilya Ponomarev, who voted against the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, about the current state of the war after he joined the Ukrainian forces.

 

[Astronuc]

Several hundred Russian soldiers were forced to hastily withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine after suffering “acute radiation sickness” from contaminated soil, according to Ukrainian officials.

The troops, who dug trenches in a contaminated Red Forest near the site of the worst nuclear disaster in history, are now reportedly being treated in a special medical facility in Gomel, Belarus. The forest is so named because thousands of pine trees turned red during the 1986 nuclear disaster. The area is considered so highly toxic that not even highly specialized Chernobyl workers are allowed to enter the zone.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-083839177.html

LONDON (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed a decree ordering 134,500 new conscripts into the army as part of Russia's annual spring draft, but the defence ministry said the call-up had nothing to do with the war in Ukraine.

The order came five weeks into Russia's invasion, which has run into fierce Ukrainian resistance. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that none of those called up would be sent to any "hot spots".

The issue of conscripts' involvement in the war is highly sensitive. On March 9, the defence ministry acknowledged that some had been sent to Ukraine after Putin had denied this on various occasions, saying only professional soldiers and officers had been sent in.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-drafts-134-500-conscripts-101839663.html

Time for a regime change in Russia!

 

[artis]

@Astronuc, I guess the radioactivity in the soil is still high enough that assuming the soldiers did not eat the soil, or get it in their lungs, that gamma alone was enough to give them radiation sickness over a prolonged period of time?

And I do wonder does nobody give them orders and explain them simple stuff like "don't make trenches in radioactive soil" ...
But it even sounds weird, why they had to dig anything around Chernobyl in the first place, that is the least active zone of the Ukraine war as far as I can see.

Sure enough I can bet my money that many of those conscripts will be sent to Ukraine, while the humanitarian aid trucks given by Russia will come back with body bags, from what I read their used for dual purpose, wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Astronuc]

I guess the radioactivity in the soil is still high enough that assuming the soldiers did not eat the soil, or get it in their lungs, that gamma alone was enough to give them radiation sickness over a prolonged period of time?

And I do wonder does nobody give them orders and explain them simple stuff like "don't make trenches in radioactive soil" ...

I can't answer the question because I don't know the distribution of radioactive species. I suppose that there is radioactive Cs (and daughter products) in the soil due to rain carrying Cs and its precursors like I down into the soil.

Sure enough I can bet my money that many of those conscripts will be sent to Ukraine, while the humanitarian aid trucks given by Russia will come back with body bags, from what I read their used for dual purpose, wouldn't surprise me.

I believe that Putin and his regime have shown a callous disregard for the lives of the Russian troops and the Russian people, as well as Ukrainians. Putin is simply deranged, demented, depraved and delusional.

Edit/update: After further consideration, it is possible that soldiers digging trenches may have inhaled some Xe from the disturbed soil. Basically, some of the key radionuclides are found in the decay chain Sb > Te > I > Xe > Cs > Ba > La. I is taken up by the thyroid, Xe is a heavy noble gas, Cs is alikali (behaves like Na, K) and Ba is alkali Earth (like Ca). So they could inhale Xe, absorb the other with contact, as well as be exposed to gamma radiation from decay of moderate half-life radionuclides.

 

[pinball1970]

I can't answer the question because I don't know the distribution of radioactive species. I suppose that there is radioactive Cs (and daughter products) in the soil due to rain carrying Cs and its precursors like I down into the soil.I believe that Putin and his regime have shown a callous disregard for the lives of the Russian troops and the Russian people, as well as Ukrainians. Putin is simply deranged, demented, depraved and delusional.

Absolutely, a complete disregard of life.
He is also canvasing Syrians who have nothing to lose with a dollar sweetener allegedly.
Use them as cannon fodder with the conscripts.
We can forget the next peace talks, they can go through the motions but behind the scenes send as many drones in there as possible.
They have been very effective.

 

[PeroK]

I know my previous post about an embargo on Russian oil and gas was met with some scepticism, but I read today that Poland plans to stop using Russian oil and gas by the end of this year. And, Russia is demanding that countries must open rouble-based accounts in Russian banks.

There is also a news item about the Russian parliament discussing the denazification of Poland, Kazakhstan, Moldova and other Baltic states.

It seems to me that this is it. Any trade with Russia is helping finance a war against Europe and we should have a total embargo as the lesser of two evils.

 

[pinball1970]

I know my previous post about an embargo on Russian oil and gas was met with some scepticism, but I read today that Poland plans to stop using Russian oil and gas by the end of this year. And, Russia is demanding that countries must open rouble-based accounts in Russian banks.

There is also a news item about the Russian parliament discussing the denazification of Poland, Kazakhstan, Moldova and other Baltic states.

It seems to me that this is it. Any trade with Russia is helping finance a war against Europe and we should have a total embargo as the lesser of two evils.

Poland? Does the west build up troops on all these boarders? Are we on Defcon 3 right now?

 

[Klystron]

I want to correct a previous post about Russian Army non-commissioned officers, NCO's. Although correct about insignia changes, Air Force and Navy veterans should reserve comments about armies.

This information from Army NCO Uni describes the lack of career Russian NCOs in current structure including cause and effect. Thanks.

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/NCO-Journal/Archives/2019/March/Russian-ncos/

Russia does not want well-rounded enlisted leaders, they want narrowly-focused, technically competent, professional, enlisted soldiers. Due to this very different system, Russian contract servicemen are probably more accurately described as "enlisted professionals" than “noncommissioned officers.”

In the Russian system, there is no centralized system for the professional training and development of conscript soldiers, such as US style basic training. Conscripts simply report to induction stations, and then are transferred to their units where they receive initial training and then on-the-job training...

 

[DennisN]

Another brand new interesting interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky on recent developments and thoughts about the near future, among other things:

Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky (DW News, Mar 31, 2022)

 

[Vanadium 50]

Time for a regime change in Russia!

And if you don't get it? How much are you willing to put into this?

As a second point, is it a good idea to back Putin against a wall on this?

 

[Ophiolite]

As a second point, is it a good idea to back Putin against a wall on this?

It is an excellent idea, if you think a nuclear winter is the best antidote to global warming.

 

[Klystron]

Things like this are why Putin will not win in Ukraine:
View attachment 299101
They will never have a big enough army to deal with 44M pissed off Ukrainians.

FYI The young woman appears to cradle a 20-gauge* pump shotgun with an extended magazine tube and extra shells attached to the stock. This size shotgun fires a pattern of projectiles from each shell with very little recoil. No aiming or precision required. Hold, point, and pull trigger. Excellent choice for small and senior citizens.

*caliber .615 inches (15.6 mm)

 

[anorlunda]

And if you don't get it? How much are you willing to put into this?

As a second point, is it a good idea to back Putin against a wall on this?

Those are both good points.

Related: I've been contemplating @artis post #1578 about all the reasons why he does not think that Putin is able to launch a nuclear strike. It is based on facts we believe that we know, plus some predictions about things that could or could not happen. Where end-of-the-world scenarios are at play, I want a lot more certainty than that. I conclude that when we have a rattlesnake with the potential to launch a world-ending nuclear strike, we must proceed with utmost caution.

Some might call that paralysis of decision caused by fear of nuclear war. Other hotheads might say that the least risk is for us to launch a pre-emptive first strike. Both of those may be true. It's part of the dark side of having such large nuclear arsenals in the first place.

We depend on our leaders and their leaders never forgetting to consider the realities of nuclear brinkmanship.

 

[PeroK]

It is an excellent idea, if you think a nuclear winter is the best antidote to global warming.

The threat of nuclear war is real but the mistakes have been made to get to this position. There's nothing you can do now to avoid that risk.

If Putin and the other Russians know they are untouchable then how do you stop them?

In my view, we ought to make a stand now.

 

[Ophiolite]

If Putin and the other Russians know they are untouchable then how do you stop them?

Choosing not to back someone into a corner is not the equivalent of rendering them untouchable. Why do you think it is?

In my view, we ought to make a stand now.

That sounds good, but what does it mean? Intensify the sanctions? Declare and enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? Carry out airstrikes on Russian troops? Or, just up the rhetoric?

 

[geordief]

The West (as opposed to Ukraine) has done as well -much better in fact -than could have been expected in the daunting circumstances.

Whilst it was anticipated that Ukraine would not abandon its sovereignty in the medium term and would likely become another Afghanistan for Russia hardly anyone imagined they might actually perform as well and heroically as they seem to have.

Russia no longer appears to be in a position to intimidate those countries who are in Nato and ,in my view it is rather the Putin regime that has reason to be fearful of the consequences of a failed foreign adventure.

The nuclear issue is not one that can really be addressed sanely except to do everything possible to avoid it coming into play

But for the resistance of Ukraine I think we would be closer to that scenario as Putin would have been emboldened to continue his adventure into other Nato countries where he could pursue similar tactics to those which almost succeeded in Ukraine.

The choice for Nato then would have been much starker

 

[Oldman too]

Even Satellites are taking a hit, I think this came up earlier in the thread but without any detail.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...out-control-enercon-wind-turbines-2022-02-28/

https://www.sentinelone.com/labs/acidrain-a-modem-wiper-rains-down-on-europe/

 

[artis]

it is possible that soldiers digging trenches may have inhaled some Xe from the disturbed soil.

And I thought Xe is only produced (also burned) during neutron flux in an active core and some time after stopping of neutron flux/chain reaction.

 

[artis]

that Poland plans to stop using Russian oil and gas by the end of this year

Not only Poland, other EU members as well, but either way this will be a costly choice.

There is also a news item about the Russian parliament discussing the denazification of Poland, Kazakhstan, Moldova and other Baltic states.

And we in the Baltics are talking about de-Putinization of Kremlin meanwhile.
Given how this war has turned I doubt Russia has the stamina to wage a conventional war with EU and NATO now. Their propagandists sure are keeping up the spirits at home but Russians are known to use that type of psychological fear mongering it doesn't always lead to action.

Poland? Does the west build up troops on all these boarders? Are we on Defcon 3 right now?

Not sure about Defcon, but NATO has increased troops around all of NATO border including Baltic as well as Poland. When the war started I saw many times columns of tanks and vehicles heading from harbor to local bases. I still hope NATO will speed up and finally give us those SAM's etc equipment that we frankly should have had a long time ago. This war has opened some eyes truth be told...

Where end-of-the-world scenarios are at play, I want a lot more certainty than that.

Well I'm afraid no one has that amount of certainty that you are looking for at the moment, probably not even Pentagon. On the other hand Putin and his team are using a lot of bluffing as is common for them.
I personally still stand by my assumption based on what I know that Putin won't use nukes unless there starts a war (for whatever reason) between west and Russia. And if he will demand to use them in the absence of a western attack , then I think there is a high possibility his own chain of command might refuse such an attack and we might not even know about it until some time in the future.

The West (as opposed to Ukraine) has done as well -much better in fact -than could have been expected in the daunting circumstances.

I agree, especially compared how no one did anything back in 2014, this was the wake up call that came too late.

hardly anyone imagined they might actually perform as well and heroically as they seem to have.

Exactly

Russia no longer appears to be in a position to intimidate those countries who are in Nato and ,in my view it is rather the Putin regime that has reason to be fearful of the consequences of a failed foreign adventure.

I agree, failing Ukraine will be a major setback for him either way. The question is as to how much he will be able to grab before this has to end due to lack of resources or other reasons, and will he be able to keep it.

But for the resistance of Ukraine I think we would be closer to that scenario as Putin would have been emboldened to continue his adventure into other Nato countries where he could pursue similar tactics to those which almost succeeded in Ukraine.

I too think Ukraine played a crucial role in not just stopping Russia and giving the west time to come up with long overdue decisions but also possibly preventing a further escalation and possibly WW3, because it seems to me that Russia planned a quick overtake of Ukraine, and then possibly if not NATO they would have tried to take Moldova and Transnistria. Such scenario would make avoiding war with Russia much harder.

 

[PeroK]

Choosing not to back someone into a corner is not the equivalent of rendering them untouchable. Why do you think it is?

It's not quite the same, no. But, these are all imprecise terms in any case.

That sounds good, but what does it mean? Intensify the sanctions? Declare and enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? Carry out airstrikes on Russian troops? Or, just up the rhetoric?

I made it clear: embargo on all trade with Russia. See post #1692.

Possibly a no-fly zone. Not air-strikes.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Possibly a no-fly zone. Not air-strikes.

A no fly zone is impossible without carrying out air strikes on Russia's anti air defenses.

 

[PeroK]

A no fly zone is impossible without carrying out air strikes on Russia's anti air defenses.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ly-zone-and-could-one-be-imposed-over-ukraine

 

[Nugatory]

A no fly zone is impossible without carrying out air strikes on Russia's anti air defenses.

Including strikes surface to air missile launchers and air defense radars inside of Russia and where collateral damage to civilians is inevitable.

 

[Klystron]

There are interdiction techniques below 'no-fly zones' and area air defense systems developed for law enforcement but applicable to urban warfare.

Visual and acoustic detectors coupled with mostly passive radar detect artillery and unsuppressed gunfire a few kilometers distant, follow back to the source, identify and engage targets using counter-weapons including artillery, mortars, ground to ground hand launched missiles, 'SWAT' teams in vehicles, drones and light aircraft. No need to cross borders or engage aircraft.

Large urban centers in the US use some of these methods to detect gunfire and illegal fireworks. Passive acoustic detectors are mounted on fixed locations, vehicles, drones and helicopters.

 

[PeroK]

It wasn't my intention to get into a debate about no-fly zones.

It seems like the EU has an ultimatum from Russia to start paying for oil and gas in roubles - and this will apply to payments due this month. This is the critical thing IMO. Do France, Germany and the others do what Russia demands or not? It's definitely a choice of two evils, IMO, but I know what I personally consider the greater evil.

 

[pinball1970]

It wasn't my intention to get into a debate about no-fly zones.

It seems like the EU has an ultimatum from Russia to start paying for oil and gas in roubles - and this will apply to payments due this month. This is the critical thing IMO. Do France, Germany and the others do what Russia demands or not? It's definitely a choice of two evils, IMO, but I know what I personally consider the greater evil.

France and Germany are refusing to pay in Rubles.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/germany-braces-for-an-end-to-reliance-on-russian-gas

 

[Rive]

Do France, Germany and the others do what Russia demands or not?

There were some evasive stuff around this from every side: as far as I understood, the 'solution' is to pay in EUR to a special account in a Russian bank, and the conversion is kind of done there.
Quite sturdy smokescreen. But the payment will go through.

 

[PeroK]

But the payment will go through.

How do you know that?

 

[Rive]

How do you know that?

Despite all the verbal sabre rattling this is a business both side wants to continue.
Found a link for the workaround