Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[pinball1970]

Despite all the verbal sabre rattling this is a business both side wants to continue.
Found a link for the workaround

I can't access that

I did find this though
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/put...s-deadline-but-europe-is-not-too-worried.html
Putin has the choice to accept foreign currency or cut off supplies and not get paid at all.

 

[artis]

Well there is the simple fact that there is no easy and cheap alternative to Russian gas for Europe.
Sure Germany can talk that fancy talk just like they did when they closed their still operable and "A ok" nuclear power plants , so what are they putting in exchange for those closed plants?

Oh wait, yup you guessed it - Russian gas. But that was before 24th of February this year, so what will they put in place of those closed plants now?
Oops, I bet somebody is having a second thought about those plants, if not before this war then definitely now. I'm not sure maybe they can still reverse the process and let them be.
Otherwise I see some more coal and wood chips entering the energy mix. So much for climate solutions...

 

[Astronuc]

And I thought Xe is only produced (also burned) during neutron flux in an active core and some time after stopping of neutron flux/chain reaction.

Xe (i.e., isotopes of Xe) is a fission product (which decays to Cs) and a decay product of another fission product (I). During fission, two atoms are produced, one has atomic number Z and the other 92-Z. The first has atomic mass A, and the other atomic mass 234-A, or 233-A, based on an excited nucleus from n + ²³⁵U => ²³⁶U, and the 234 assumes 2 neutrons released, while 233 assumes 3 neutrons released. Complicating the picture is fast fission of ²³⁸U, which shifts the A-distributions up by 1 or 2 units for each f.p., as well as thermal fission of ²³⁶Np, ²³⁸Np, ²³⁹Pu and ²⁴¹Pu, and fast fission of other transuranics.

So, there is distribution of population of fission products with a dual peak, one based around A = 89-90 and the other about A=145. In reality, fission produces an amount of every radionuclide from Cu (Z=29) to Eu (Z=63), or Z = 46 +/- 17 (46 from 92/2). The since most fission products have half-lives on the order of seconds, minutes, hours, days, months, the main concern are those that decay slowly over years; all the short-lived radionuclides decay into long-lived fission products or stable nuclides.

There is a lot of concern about radioactive I and Cs, because I is taken up by the thyroid gland, and Cs behaves like Na and K in the body, so could migrate to nerves, and Ba (Cs-decay product) behaves like Ca, so goes to the bones. Of course, any fission product, or dust covered in fission product could settle onto clothing or skin, or inhaled into nose, throat or lungs, or swallowed into the alimentary system. So lots of opportunity for external and internal exposure. External exposure is primarily from gamma radiation, which penetrates cms to 100s of cms. Internally, but gamma and beta radiation are a concern, along with rate and energies of the beta and gamma radiation.

For the heavy f.p., the main ones would be ¹²⁹I, ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs and ¹³³Ba, and possibly decay products from transuranics and other species. It depends on what and how much was released and deposited, and it is nearly 36 years since the accident.

Looking at Xe, those radioisotopes and their precursors should have decayed away by now.

 

[PeroK]

France and Germany are refusing to pay in Rubles.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/germany-braces-for-an-end-to-reliance-on-russian-gas

There were several things that struck me in this article. One is that Germany gets 55% of its natural gas imports from Russia. Where was even the most basic contingency planning? I'm not the most politically knowledgeable person, but even I've been calling Putin "the first great dictator of the 21st Century" for the past decade. How did Germany end up almost totally dependent on the great dictator for their energy supplies? How does that happen? Did the security services not know what he was like? Did the German government ignore them? It puts Merkel in an entirely new light!

It's barely credible!

 

[Vanadium 50]

In my view, we ought to make a stand now.

It would have been better to have made a stand after Crimea.

But what is "making a stand"? Are you prepared to use strategic nuclear weapons? Tactical nuclear weapons? First use? Retaliation?

 

[PeroK]

It would have been better to have made a stand after Crimea.

But what is "making a stand"? Are you prepared to use strategic nuclear weapons? Tactical nuclear weapons? First use? Retaliation?

I made that clear above. I'm talking about trade with Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

There were several things that struck me in this article. One is that Germany gets 55% of its natural gas imports from Russia. Where was even the most basic contingency planning? I'm not the most politically knowledgeable person, ...

Obviously.

... but even I've been calling Putin "the first great dictator of the 21st Century" for the past decade.

Everybody can tell, afterward. Even the Ukrainians couldn't believe it.

How did Germany end up almost totally dependent on the great dictator for their energy supplies?

Ever heard anything about price building, risk assessments of decisions, or fracking? Anything? Oil sands, maybe?

How does that happen?

Putin was definitely more popular here than Trump has been on every single level, but especially trust. Whom would you buy from in such a case? (keyword: trade war)

Did the security services not know what he was like? Did the German government ignore them? It puts Merkel in an entirely new light!

It's barely credible!

see above

 

[artis]

Well , not to join any side here but looking from a physics standpoint.
It's easy to criticize Europe for getting their gas from Russia, but natural gas doesn't exactly grow on trees.
Here is a list of natural gas producers by country. No need even to comment, anyone with any insight into politics and geography will notice the options Europe has from where to get the gas...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_production
It's pretty much Russia or USA, just that there is no gas pipeline under the Atlantic so that means ships.

 

[Frabjous]

Obviously.

Everybody can tell, afterward. Even the Ukrainians couldn't believe it.

Ever heard anything about price building, risk assessments of decisions, or fracking? Anything? Oil sands, maybe?

Putin was definitely more popular here than Trump has been on every single level, but especially trust. Whom would you buy from in such a case?

see above

Thanks for the primer. I see now that Germany has nothing to regret.

 

[russ_watters]

Russian officials have accused Ukraine of attacking a fuel depot inside Russia:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/01/europe/russia-ukraine-belgorod-fire-intl/index.html

Ukrainian officials responded: "Yeah, that was us, bud." /s

 

[neilparker62]

Russian officials have accused Ukraine of attacking a fuel depot inside Russia:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/01/europe/russia-ukraine-belgorod-fire-intl/index.html

Ukrainian officials responded: "Yeah, that was us, bud." /s

Er - about how many fuel dumps have you blown up here - bud ? Not to mention (endless list) !

 

[BillTre]

Isn't Belgorod the location of a big Russian army base?

 

[neilparker62]

Ukrainian airforce tactics not dissimilar to those employed by these ladies. Mr Putin ought to be somewhat chagrined I would say.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcast...ld-war-ii-night-witch-nadezhda-popova-dies-91

 

[artis]

Russian officials have accused Ukraine of attacking a fuel depot inside Russia:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/01/europe/russia-ukraine-belgorod-fire-intl/index.html

Ukrainian officials responded: "Yeah, that was us, bud." /s

This looks promising, but then again it's dangerous. If Russians lose within Ukraine it's one thing, if they start losing on their own territory , with Putin it might just escalate.
I totally understand the Ukrainians and from the playbook of justice they have every right given what has been done to them, but with events like these unfolding I start to reconsider my stance on the impossibility of a nuke being used, even if it's a tactical at first.
Definitely not a scenario I look forward to given my proximity to the conflict.

 

[neilparker62]

This looks promising, but then again it's dangerous. If Russians lose within Ukraine it's one thing, if they start losing on their own territory , with Putin it might just escalate.
I totally understand the Ukrainians and from the playbook of justice they have every right given what has been done to them, but with events like these unfolding I start to reconsider my stance on the impossibility of a nuke being used, even if it's a tactical at first.
Definitely not a scenario I look forward to given my proximity to the conflict.

In the era of Gorbachev, Reagan, Yeltsin, the Bushes etc we did not have lunatics threatening the use of nukes. Very regrettably the last few years have seen extremely ill-considered reversals of the tacitly accepted view (between sane super-powers) that any such escalation can and will result in MAD (mutually assured destruction). One way or another that dynamic has to be restored.

 

[DennisN]

How did Germany end up almost totally dependent on the great dictator for their energy supplies?

Ever heard anything about price building, risk assessments of decisions, or fracking? Anything? Oil sands, maybe?

@fresh_42 : Wasn't Germany's decision to leave nuclear power also a contributing factor, or do I remember incorrectly?

(here in Sweden, our nuclear power is still a controversial topic)

 

[Vanadium 50]

Wasn't Germany's decision to leave nuclear power also a contributing factor

Yes it was. Renewables can only go so far, and the Green movement (distinct from the party) felt that buying gas from dictators was better than nuclear power, And there you go.

 

[anorlunda]

Mentour Now reports, "Since the Ukraine War started there has been a very alarming uptick in the amount of GPS jamming and spoofing incidents in the airspace around Russia and Ukraine."

His concern is for civilian aircraft. The military uses jam and spoofing resistant hardware, but civilian GPS receivers don't.

He also points out that many modern airliners have inertial and radio navigation to backup GPS. Nevertheless, GPS problems can cause disruptions and unsafe situations.

 

[fresh_42]

@fresh_42 : Wasn't Germany's decision to leave nuclear power also a contributing factor, or do I remember incorrectly?

Sure. But the question was: where to get natural gas from?

We have serious concerns about fracking. That, together with the price for LNG in comparison to Russia's gas, the existing infrastructure (pipelines, no LNG terminal), plus Trump's threat and action to start a trade war with Germany, plus his overall reliability, made American gas more than unattractive. That left the Middle East as the only alternative, and their record on human rights isn't any better than Putin's was. So - politically - there have been good reasons to rely on Russia. And they still deliver to the day! So why shouldn't we trust Putin? We haven't made any negative experiences, in contrast to the alternatives.

This leaves us with a purely political decision since economically Russia is still the better provider. And politics changed in February this year. No, the Crimean annexation in 2014 is a different topic.

Thus, I cannot see any bad decisions made by Merkel. These know-it-all who are now commenting, should make their homework. It is primarily an economic decision. And in this respect, Russia would still be the choice number one. To change this is an economically bad decision that has its price. A price we weren't willing to pay until this year.

 

[fresh_42]

So it wasn’t a lack of knowledge? It sounds like in six months, Germany will be refilling Putin’s coffers.

I don't know about your country. But we have a free market here in Germany. The gas business is a private business. For example, Gazprom owns a significant share of our gas storage capacities. Politics has normally not much to say when it comes to economic decisions, and any interferences are not really appreciated.

 

[PeroK]

Thus, I cannot see any bad decisions made by Merkel. These know-it-all who are now commenting, should make their homework. It is primarily an economic decision. And in this respect, Russia would still be the choice number one. To change this is an economically bad decision that has its price. A price we weren't willing to pay until this year.

The question is why get 55% of your gas from one country? It's a national security issue, surely? How could anyone doing contingency planning for the German government fail to consider the case that Russia becomes unstable? Or, is in open conflict with the EU.

Whatever the previous US president said about NATO is nothing compared to what Putin says. If a US president changed the constitution to be effectively president for life and started assassinating his political opponents, then you could compare the US with Russia. But, until then, there is no comparison.

 

[gmax137]

And in this respect, Russia would still be the choice number one. To change this is an economically bad decision that has its price. A price we weren't willing to pay until this year.

Off topic, but how much less nat gas from Russia or anywhere else, if the operating nuclear units had been retained? That seems like it would have been the "economical" choice number one.

 

[fresh_42]

The question is why get 55% of your gas from one country?

Because of a kind of optimism. Never change a winning team. And a former chancellor is on the Gazprom board ...

It was a bad decision, but an explainable one.

It's a national security issue, surely? How could anyone doing contingency planning for the German government fail to consider the case that Russia becomes unstable? Or, is in open conflict with the EU.

Whatever the previous US president said about NATO is nothing compared to what Putin says.

That's not the point. It is a matter of fact that any American president can obviously determine whom to sell something or not. Ask the Cubans. It is also a matter of fact that Trump threatened to invoke customs on German cars. Funnily, even on those that were built in the US (BMW). This has nothing to do with NATO, only with good merchants. Putin has proven to be one, the others have proven to be none.

If a US president changed the constitution to be effectively president for life and started assassinating his political opponents, then you could compare the US with Russia. But, until then, there is no comparison.

I compare providers.

 

[Frabjous]

C'mon. Do you really want to follow this stupid path?

You are right. My apologies, but I find your unwillingness to acknowledge any mistakes on Germany’s part troubling.

 

[fresh_42]

You are right. My apologies, but I find your unwillingness to acknowledge any mistakes on Germany’s part troubling.

The mistake was the lack of diversification, or the wish to see its necessity. And this necessity changed dramatically in February, not earlier.

 

[anorlunda]

Putin was definitely more popular here than Trump has been on every single level, but especially trust. Whom would you buy from in such a case?

Politics has normally not much to say when it comes to economic decisions, and any interferences are not really appreciated.

Those two statements are contradictory.

 

[Frabjous]

The mistake was the lack of diversification, or the wish to see its necessity. And this necessity changed dramatically in February, not earlier.

How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine adversely impact Germany?

 

[fresh_42]

How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine adversely impact Germany?

Besides the shift in our energy supply, i.e. that we have to build an LNG terminal? Mainly that we have 25,000 new children in school.

 

[fresh_42]

Those two statements are contradictory.

No, they are not! Private businessmen buy whom they can trust. You can trust Russia in economical terms, whether you like that fact or not. But you can never know when an American president decides to impact free trade.

 

[Frabjous]

Besides the shift in our energy supply, i.e. that we have to build an LNG terminal? Mainly that we have 25,000 new children in school.

Those sound like economic impacts. Given that Russian gas is now discounted, isn’t it in Germany’s economic interests to start Nord Stream 2 to give it monopsonistic power over Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

Those sound like economic reasons. Given that Russian gas is now discounted, isn’t it in Germany’s economic interests to start Nord Stream 2 to give it monopsonistic power over Russia.

Sure, but at the moment this would not be politically realizable. We joined the international sanctions, so usual business has no choice.

 

[Frabjous]

Sure, but at the moment this would not be politically realizable. We joined the international sanctions, so usual business has no choice.

But why has Germany joined international sanctions? It negatively impacts Germany’s economy?

 

[fresh_42]

But why has Germany joined international sanctions? It negatively impacts Germany’s economy?

Good question. I guess the alternative would have been even more damaging.

 

[Frabjous]

Good question. I guess the alternative would have been even more damaging.

If Russian had been as successful with this operation as it was in 2014, do you believe that it should be business as usual between Russia and Germany?

 

[fresh_42]

If Russian had been as successful with this operation as it was in 2014, do you believe that it should be business as usual between Russia and Germany?

No, of course not. I firmly believe that even the annexation of Crimea could and should have been solved with a simple contract for the Russian marine base. I mean, the UK kept HK for nearly a hundred years or so by legal means. I even think, that Ukrainian membership in NATO wouldn't have been any threat to Russia, although this may be borderline.

However, this war cannot be justified by any arguments. It is yesterday's thinking and completely unnecessary and even more, tragic! Russia should get grown up. But that is apparently harder than thought after centuries of oppression, be it zsaristic or stalinistic.