Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Astronuc]

From the NY Times, https://news.yahoo.com/true-barbarity-life-death-under-143326083.html

“The first brigade of Russian forces that came in were more or less tolerable,” Volkova said. “They said, ‘OK, we will help you.’ ”

That help, Volkova explained, was just allowing them to pull corpses off the streets. She added that roughly 20 people had been killed during the occupation and the ensuing fighting — 10 had suffered gunshot wounds.

On a few occasions, the Russian troops opened “green corridors” for civilians to leave the town, although that was when some people — mostly younger, military-age men — were abducted.

Early in the occupation, Trostyanets’ police officers took off their uniforms and blended into the populace. Those who were in Ukraine’s Territorial Defense, the equivalent of the National Guard, slipped out to the town’s periphery and worked as partisans — documenting Russian troop movement and reporting it to the Ukrainian military.

Others remained in the town, quietly moving to help residents when they could, even as Russian soldiers hunted them. “We were here during the whole time of occupation, working to the best of our abilities,” explained the police chief, Volodymyr Bogachyov, 53.

As the days and weeks went by, food became scarce, and any goodwill from the soldiers vanished, too. Residents boiled snow for water and lived off what they had stored from their small gardens. Russian soldiers, without a proper logistics pipeline, began looting people’s homes, shops and even the local chocolate factory. One butcher spray-painted “ALREADY LOOTED” on his shop so the soldiers would not break in. On another store, another deterrence: “EVERYTHING IS TAKEN, NOTHING LEFT.”

By mid-March, the Russian soldiers were rotated out of the town and replaced by separatist fighters who were brought in from the southeast.

It was then, residents said, that atrocities began to mount.

“They were brash and angry,” Volkova said. “We could not negotiate with them about anything. They would not give us any green corridors; they searched the apartments, took away the phones, abducted people — they took them away, mostly young men, and we still don’t know where these people are.”

AP is reporting similar news from Bucha.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...-evacuations-665fd06b92852547d7b27627b99509a6

https://news.yahoo.com/exiled-russian-oligarch-says-next-005732013.html
From Business Insider - "Exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky said in an interview with CNN Sunday that the next step in Vladimir Putin's war may be the invasion of the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania."

"His propagandists have already been started to prepare Russian society for an attack on NATO countries. They're constantly talking about this," Khodorkovsky said. "And this is the preparation of Russian public opinion for this."

I would expect the national/global security community is paying attention.

 

[Astronuc]

Inna Sovsun, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, joins Yahoo News Senior White House Correspondent Alexander Nazaryan in a wide-ranging conversation about the latest in the country’s efforts to defend against Russian attacks. Discussing intervention by the U.S. that stopped delivery of MiG fighter jets from Poland, Sovsun says, “There is this big frustration and feeling of betrayal on the side of all Ukrainian society,” adding that the defensive weaponry that has been provided “feels like we’re getting just enough to survive, but not enough to win.”

Inna Sovsun is right.
https://www.aol.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-sovsun-085900614.html

 

[artis]

Inna Sovsun is right.
https://www.aol.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-sovsun-085900614.html

Well I hope NATO ramps up, because Ukraine at least has SAM's , we in the Baltics are within NATO since 2004 and we are yet to get a single SAM...
I don't think any EU member or NATO general will admit this, but I think for the first few days of the war most were thinking that Russians will just overrun Ukraine so nobody even bothered to contemplate weapons deliveries. It is largely thanks to Ukrainian bravery and Russian troop incompetence that bought Ukraine time and meanwhile opened eyes in the west and therefore pushed even those reluctant to weapons deliveries to agree upon them.

 

[artis]

It seems like there might have something happened in Chernobyl after all, CNN now reports about the story of Russian soldiers getting sick from exposing themselves to radionuclides while doing whatever they did in the forests around Chernobyl.



https://www.timesofisrael.com/last-...-exposed-themselves-to-significant-radiation/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60945666

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1090270567/chernobyl-russia-radiation

When they left, Ukraine's ministry added, the Russian troops looted the power plant, taking "kettles, lab equipment, and radiation." They also took the captured Ukrainian national guard members who had been at the facility when Russia invaded in late February.

The IAEA said Russian forces had sent two buses of troops out of the area to Belarus as they returned control of the Chernobyl site to Ukraine. A third bus also left a nearby city where many of the Chernobyl staff members live, it said.

 

[wrobel]

Suppose some oligarch sponsors a TV talk-show where an anchorperson appeals to crush Ukraine into a wet spot. Which laws are supposed to apply to deprive property of this oligarch?
How is supposed to prove that this talk-show has any influence on the situation?

 

[Astronuc]

Mass grave discovered in Bucha, Ukraine.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/europe/ukraine-bucha-horrors/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-new...ws-04-3-22/h_9430ac180ab99042290699473026243b

Kyiv Regional Police and local residents say they believe at least 150 people were buried in the mass grave, but the mayor of Bucha says the death toll could be as high as 300. CNN could not independently verify their claims.

And that is just one town.

More bodies likely under the rubble/debris of destroyed buildings.

Edit/update: In another town, Motyzhyn -

An Ukrainian mayor and her family were reportedly killed in an "execution style" slaying by Russian troops before being thrown into a pit in a forested area, a local resident told the Associated Press on Sunday.

Olga Sukhenko, the mayor of the Ukrainian town of Motyzhyn, which is located near Kyiv, was allegedly shot alongside her husband and son for refusing to comply with Russian demands, the AP reported. The resident who spoke to the news outlet was identified only as a man named Oleg for security purposes.

Oleg told the AP that Russian troops targeted local officials across Motyzhyn and murdered those who did not cooperate. After the mayor and her family were shot, the man said they were thrown into a pit behind a plot of land that contained three houses that Russian forces occupied.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...e-thrown-into-pit-by-troops-report/ar-AAVOK52

Echos of WWII and the Holocaust (1941-1945).

 

[phinds]

Suppose some oligarch sponsors a TV talk-show where an anchorperson appeals to crush Ukraine into a wet spot. Which laws are supposed to apply to deprive property of this oligarch?
How is supposed to prove that this talk-show has any influence on the situation?

Probably none. That's "Free speech". The only justifiable reason (under American law) for freezing assets is the suspicion that the assets were obtained illegally. Saying things like that, while odious, is not illegal.

 

[fresh_42]

Probably none. That's "Free speech".

Not everywhere. We have a law against the repetition of Goebbels.

 

[martinbn]

Probably none. That's "Free speech". The only justifiable reason (under American law) for freezing assets is the suspicion that the assets were obtained illegally. Saying things like that, while odious, is not illegal.

Can those people be audited?

 

[phinds]

Can those people be audited?

In the US "audited" is something that is done to American taxpayers so unless they pay taxes in America, no. At least not by the IRS.

 

[Astronuc]

In the US "audited" is something that is done to American taxpayers so unless they pay taxes in America, no. At least not by the IRS.

That applies specifically to tax audits. There are other types of audits, e.g., bank audits, corporate audits, . . .

 

[phinds]

That applies specifically to tax audits. There are other types of audits, e.g., bank audits, corporate audits, . . .

Good point.

 

[fresh_42]

Good point.

Yes, but it is a euphemism. Audit translates to "Listen!"

My auditors never listened. They only knew everything better, whether practicable or not.

 

[wrobel]

Probably none. That's "Free speech". The only justifiable reason (under American law) for freezing assets is the suspicion that the assets were obtained illegally. Saying things like that, while odious, is not illegal.

That looks like to punish a drug-addicted person and leave a drug dealer.

 

[phinds]

That looks like to punish a drug-addicted person and leave a drug dealer.

Yes, American law does in fact end up with some VERY unfair results. Just one example: A woman was convicted of drug possession even though the stash belonged to her boyfriend who was a dealer. She went to prison, he got off by rolling over on HIS supplier.

 

[PeroK]

Echos of WWII and the Holocaust (1941-1945).

I see more reports now that people are saying what I believe. That cheap Russian oil and gas aren't worth the cost to humanity. If we have any legitimate power to stop this, we should.

The problem is that if Putin can survive, then he can sell his oil and gas to other willing buyers and stay in the clear. We need to pull out now while he is dependent on us. The ecomonic hardships we face are nothing compared to what the Ukrainians are enduring.

 

[artis]

Echos of WWII and the Holocaust (1941-1945).

And the USSR, many (not saying you in particular) forget that before Nazi Germany learned how to exterminate on a mass scale , Stalin and the NKVD in Russia were already running this machine like a fortune 500 company. Gulags, concentration camps , mass deportations etc, what Russians are doing now in Ukraine is basically a low key poor remake of their bloody past.
The intent is there , just that the people carrying out that intent are largely unwilling, under low morale and incompetent, that is the main difference between now and back then.

 

[artis]

Viewer discretion is advised. Images from Bucha ,

 

[Astronuc]

Newsweek - Putin's Warnings to Finland and Sweden regarding NATO membership backfired.

Finland Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Saturday that the country will make a decision on applying for NATO membership by the end of spring, because "Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was."

Finland's relations with Russia have changed in an "irreversible" way, said Marin, reversing course on earlier remarks that it would be "very unlikely" that Finland would apply for membership with the military alliance during her current term of office.

Russian officials have warned of potential retaliation, in the form of military and political consequences, should Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Sergei Belyaev, director of the Second European Department of Russia's Foreign Ministry, told Russia's state-run news agency Interfax that Finland and Sweden not joining NATO is "an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ership-as-putins-warnings-backfire/ar-AAVQvoE

Meanwhile, populist Putin allies seem to be winning elections in Serbia and Hungary.

ELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — An early official count of Serbia's national election on Monday confirmed the landslide victory of President Aleksandar Vucic and his populist party — important allies of Russia in the volatile Balkans and in Europe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-official-tally-confirms-win-for-serbia-populist-leader/ar-AAVPyxd

• Viktor Orban, widely regarded as the most pro-Kremlin leader of the 27 nations of the European Union, has spent 12 years in power in Budapest.
• He is the country's longest-serving leader since the fall of communism in 1989 and has long been a thorn in the side of the European Union.
• Orban has often boasted of his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and it's that link that became a major challenge for the electoral campaign of his ruling Fidesz party.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...kes-early-lead-in-hungary-election/ar-AAVOzEe

I imagine FSB are making plans to undermine democracies in neighboring countries, as well as running criminal (smuggling/trafficking) syndicates.

 

[artis]

A Russian soldier is claimed to have swapped the armor plate in his jacket with a stolen Apple laptop in order to bring it home.

 

[BillTre]

I see more reports now that people are saying what I believe. That cheap Russian oil and gas aren't worth the cost to humanity. If we have any legitimate power to stop this, we should.

The problem is that if Putin can survive, then he can sell his oil and gas to other willing buyers and stay in the clear. We need to pull out now while he is dependent on us. The ecomonic hardships we face are nothing compared to what the Ukrainians are enduring.

Although it might be satisfying to strangle Russia's economy in retaliation for its stupid and evil invasion, my real interest in denying them the advanced materials for making more sophisticated weapons (involving electronic mostly I guess).
Some of what I've read assert they should be running down their existing stores of weapons (those not made worthless through corruption practices). This will should reduce the effectiveness any more attacks they might try.

Of course, Ukraine should also be receiving newer and better weapons:
Anti-ship missiles, long range anti-aircraft missiles, anti-missiles missiles.
Anything to aid Ukraine's ability to respond tactically to Russian threats should be on the table.

NATO/US should raw some clear lines that if crossed should evoke a NATO/US response that Russia would not like: bomb west of this line we shoot down any planes we can over Ukraine (with missiles only for now). Then Russia provokes the righteous response. This is the same kind of thing Lincoln did at the beginning of the US Civil war, wait for the Rebs to attack Fort Sumter before the North responded to the South.

 

[Astronuc]

NATO/US should raw some clear lines that if crossed should evoke a NATO/US response that Russia would not like: bomb west of this line we shoot down any planes we can over Ukraine (with missiles only for now).

No drawing lines. NATO needs to be quiet and just do it. Too many lines drawn already, followed by little or no action.

 

[BillTre]

No drawing lines. NATO needs to be quiet and just do it. Too many lines drawn already, followed by little or no action.

I think if Russia like a poorly behaved petulant child.
Layout clear rules in public so everyone knows what will happen and when inevitably they transgress whatever lines, respond strongly and publicly.
They can't really complain because they knew what would happen.
It seems unlikely they could respond effectively against a well organized and well supplied advanced military.
Just want to avoid involving the nuks.
Ukranian tactical rockets into Russia close to Ukraine seems entirely justified. Nuks would be a clear over reaction.

WRT Ukrainian demands, they should end up with a DMZ extending significantly into Russia (100-200 miles). Those guys can not be trusted and it should be made clear to them ASAP so they get used to the idea for later negotiations. This is how Russia treats others.
They should also be able to make any treaties they want. Those Russian guys can not be trusted.
Russia should be asked for reparations, but unlikely to get anything.
The Ukrainians should also get their stolen people back.

 

[pinball1970]

Apologies if posted already.
Russia claim the footage is staged

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bucha-massacre-ukraine-russia-putin-provocation-war-crimes-atrocities/

 

[BillTre]

Apologies if posted already.
Russia claim the footage is staged

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bucha-massacre-ukraine-russia-putin-provocation-war-crimes-atrocities/

Well, duh.

 

[pinball1970]

Well, duh.

Its part of the war Bill. Information.

 

[BillTre]

Its part of the war Bill. Information.

It was a comment on the veracity of what Russia says, not your post.

 

[pinball1970]

It was a comment on the veracity of what Russia says, not your post.

Yes it's obscene. I only lasted so far with it.

 

[Astronuc]

WRT Ukrainian demands, they should end up with a DMZ extending significantly into Russia (100-200 miles). Those guys can not be trusted and it should be made clear to them ASAP so they get used to the idea for later negotiations. This is how Russia treats others.

I agree

Russia should be asked for reparations, but unlikely to get anything.

I think reparations should be demanded/required.

The Ukrainians should also get their stolen people back.

Stolen people = kidnapped hostages

Putin and his enablers must be held accountable for the mass murder, as well as destruction of homes and lives.

 

[phinds]

Putin and his enablers must be held accountable for the mass murder, as well as destruction of homes and lives.

There's that "must" again with no enforcement mechanism suggested. I certainly would agree that it is ENORMOUSLY preferable that that happen, but I not only don't see that it "must" happen, I don't think it will happen.

 

[artis]

There's that "must" again with no enforcement mechanism suggested. I certainly would agree that it is ENORMOUSLY preferable that that happen, but I not only don't see that it "must" happen, I don't think it will happen.

I'm afraid you are right. Russia IIRC has never ever paid anyone for anything, it's already good if you get your money for the goods you sell them...
Eventually the west will realize that regimes like China and Russia understand only force. Diplomacy works in democracy, for a totalitarian structure diplomacy is just one of the many means to a dirty end.
Remember how Nazi Germany had diplomacy with the USSR? Molotov Ribbentropp pact and the secret protocols that divided Europe between them?
In the end both sides went home thinking how should they strangle one another before the ink on the paper managed to dry out...

Diplomacy did not prevent WW2 and I think it couldn't have. For totalitarian regimes diplomacy is like a rental car , they use it, then abuse it and then throw it out once it has served it's purpose.

The only way to stop all of this now (and arguably for the last 8 years ) is to supply Ukraine with weapons.
Currently as things stand the way I see it, NATO can avoid confrontation with Russia , all we need to do is just give good weapons to Ukraine, let them defeat Russians and shame Putin. In the end that is all they ask for, I say a small price given west only loses money while they lose their lives.

 

[phinds]

The only way to stop all of this now (and arguably for the last 8 years ) is to supply Ukraine with weapons.

+1 on that. I have no idea what's actually going on in terms of our providing them with weapons, but I have sinking feeling that we are not doing as much as we could and should.

 

[fresh_42]

+1 on that. I have no idea what's actually going on in terms of our providing them with weapons, but I have sinking feeling that we are not doing as much as we could and should.

Those deliveries are not discussed publically.

 

[geordief]

I'm afraid you are right. Russia IIRC has never ever paid anyone for anything, it's already good if you get your money for the goods you sell them...
Eventually the west will realize that regimes like China and Russia understand only force. Diplomacy works in democracy, for a totalitarian structure diplomacy is just one of the many means to a dirty end.
Remember how Nazi Germany had diplomacy with the USSR? Molotov Ribbentropp pact and the secret protocols that divided Europe between them?
In the end both sides went home thinking how should they strangle one another before the ink on the paper managed to dry out...

Diplomacy did not prevent WW2 and I think it couldn't have. For totalitarian regimes diplomacy is like a rental car , they use it, then abuse it and then throw it out once it has served it's purpose.

The only way to stop all of this now (and arguably for the last 8 years ) is to supply Ukraine with weapons.
Currently as things stand the way I see it, NATO can avoid confrontation with Russia , all we need to do is just give good weapons to Ukraine, let them defeat Russians and shame Putin. In the end that is all they ask for, I say a small price given west only loses money while they lose their lives.

If only it was as simple as giving Ukraine the means to defend itself against Putin.

If Putin has the means to obliterate Ukraine from behind secure borders whilst Ukraine cannot reciprocate then he can grind Ukraine down eventually.
I feel that Putin needs to be beaten and humiliated before the Russian public in order to stop him from the path he is on but I do not see how this can be done without a direct confrontation with Nato
with all the risks we know are involved in that scenario

 

[phinds]

Those deliveries are not discussed publically.

Of course, nor should they be, but Zelensky keeps saying they need more.