Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Astronuc]

Bloomberg reports Germany Seizes Control of Gazprom Unit to Secure Gas Supply
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-temporarily-run-gazprom-unit-144511749.html

(Bloomberg) -- Germany will temporarily take control of a unit of Gazprom PJSC in the country as it seeks to safeguard security of gas supply.

Gazprom Germania GmbH -- owner of energy supplier Wingas GmbH and a gas storage firm -- will come under the trusteeship of the German energy regulator until Sept. 30, Economy Minister Robert Habeck told reporters in Berlin. That means the Federal Network Agency will assume the role of a shareholder and can take all necessary measures to ensure security of supply, he said. The government won’t ultimately take ownership of the company.

 

[artis]

I feel that Putin needs to be beaten and humiliated before the Russian public in order to stop him from the path he is on but I do not see how this can be done without a direct confrontation with Nato
with all the risks we know are involved in that scenario

I disagree , because politically a direct confrontation with the west will play directly into Putin's playbook.
Dictators thrive when they have an "outside enemy" as that rallies people up to his propaganda.
I do realize it is somewhat agonizing to sit and watch Ukraine perform the duties of a lightning rod, taking all the hit on itself but I think globally speaking there is nothing better than if Ukraine managed to fully beat Russian army and make them retreat back to the border. Not only does this avoid a direct confrontation which runs the risk of WW3 and lots more dead bodies everywhere but it also beats Putin nicely because it makes him look like a weak moron.

On top of that Ukrainians are really showing some A level war skills, if they had all the equipment of NATO regular army instead of what they have now, it could as well be Russian troops would have been beaten back to their border by now.

I think the big mistake here was to have the clear intelligence that Russia will attack as far back as December 2021 but then mumbling whether to supply weapons and making a decision only in the first week of war.
Not sure whether it was fear that delayed all of this or the unbelief that it could happen in the first place, probably both.

 

[artis]

Russian communication problems and radios, Elon Musk's starlink etc in this article.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htecm/articles/20220328.aspx

 

[artis]

 

[PeroK]

A pro-Russia demonstration in Berlin. What's going on?

https://www.intellinews.com/pro-war-motorcade-shocks-berlin-240322/?source=russia

 

[fresh_42]

A pro-Russia demonstration in Berlin. What's going on?

https://www.intellinews.com/pro-war-motorcade-shocks-berlin-240322/?source=russia

Hard to say. Berlin's newspaper number one has nothing about it. The only demonstrations they report are:

• Ukrainians want to lie down in front of the Reichstag
• Demonstration against the continuing of the A100 construction

I wouldn't rule out that this actually has happened. There are literally thousands of Russians living in Berlin (26,330 in 2020 plus even more Germans with a Russian background). Whether this is worth mentioning is another question. Not every blocked crossing is a states affair.

The only other reference I have found was in our version of The Sun:

The Bucha massacre shook the whole world. But in Berlin, a car parade drove through the city with waving Soviet flags and the Russian anthem.

I strongly suggest reading better newspapers.

 

[artis]

I am not surprised. Every country that has a sizeable Russian population has that "5th column" stuff going on.
This is business as usual for the former Soviet republics.
Not all Russians respect the land that they live in, many live outside of Russia but still support the actions of their government.

 

[pinball1970]

Hard to say. Berlin's newspaper number one has nothing about it. The only demonstrations they report are:

• Ukrainians want to lie down in front of the Reichstag
• Demonstration against the continuing of the A100 construction

I wouldn't rule out that this actually has happened. There are literally thousands of Russians living in Berlin (26,330 in 2020 plus even more Germans with a Russian background). Whether this is worth mentioning is another question. Not every blocked crossing is a states affair.

The only other reference I have found was in our version of The Sun:I strongly suggest reading better newspapers.

I don't think it's pro Russian, I think it is more anti war. What ever that means. I can see Ukraine flags

 

[Lord Jestocost]

Hard to say. Berlin's newspaper number one has nothing about it. The only demonstrations they report are:

• Ukrainians want to lie down in front of the Reichstag
• Demonstration against the continuing of the A100 construction

I wouldn't rule out that this actually has happened. There are literally thousands of Russians living in Berlin (26,330 in 2020 plus even more Germans with a Russian background). Whether this is worth mentioning is another question. Not every blocked crossing is a states affair.

The only other reference I have found was in our version of The Sun:I strongly suggest reading better newspapers.

https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2022-04/prorussischer-autokorso-berlin-organisator

 

[PeroK]

I strongly suggest reading better newspapers.

Words fail me.

 

[pinball1970]

A pro-Russia demonstration in Berlin. What's going on?

https://www.intellinews.com/pro-war-motorcade-shocks-berlin-240322/?source=russia

More of a peace rally by the looks of it. Anti war.

 

[PeroK]

This is the first time I've heard a senior UK politician say that we should get involved militarily (by defending Odessa and providing a maritime force to keep it connected to international waters). Tobias Ellwood is chair of the Defence Select Committe:



He also said that we should stop hoping that Putin will be removed and debating whether he will be tried for war crimes and focus on helping Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion.

 

[wrobel]

A pro-Russia demonstration in Berlin. What's going on?

1) idiots
2) imported corruption
3) both above

 

[wrobel]

The Sun is a sink-hole indeed

 

[fresh_42]

I would be more concerned if there wasn't one! We have a system with more than one allowed opinion.

 

[martinbn]

I would be more concerned if there wasn't one! We have a system with more than one allowed opinion.

Some opinions, although allowed, can be a cause for concern especially when a lot of people share them.

 

[geordief]

Russian State TV

 

[pinball1970]

This is the first time I've heard a senior UK politician say that we should get involved militarily (by defending Odessa and providing a maritime force to keep it connected to international waters). Tobias Ellwood is chair of the Defence Select Committe:



He also said that we should stop hoping that Putin will be removed and debating whether he will be tried for war crimes and focus on helping Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion.

A message needs to be sent to Russia via diplomatic means. Odessa will involve NATO protection.

 

[pinball1970]

The Sun is a sink-hole indeed

It's just an entertainment magazine with news in it. Ordinary people do not invest the time to look into world affairs, Science affairs, ethical issues deeply. They prefer fast food news, they have to feed the cat and get the kids ready for school.

 

[pinball1970]

Russian State TV

He spoke though yes?

 

[wrobel]

that is what going on on Russian TV in all channels 24*7

He spoke though yes?

have not got the question

 

[pinball1970]

that is what going on on Russian TV in all channels 24*7

have not got the question

He was shut down and they clearly did not want him to speak. Like he had details that they did not want him to expand on.
'Our forces they are out there...' 'our country it's...'
Interrupted 'no no no'
'they are dying'
Interrupted again
'they are dying..'
Some younger guy in his 30s telling what looked like an decorated war horse to shut up.

 

[wrobel]

mentioning about casualties in Russian army was apparently out of the format

 

[fresh_42]

Some opinions, although allowed, can be a cause for concern especially when a lot of people share them.

With a sample size of at least 26,330 you can expect some in the Gaußian tails. It is only here on PF not a neglectable event to fit someone's prejudices. There are 3,664,000 who did not demonstrate.

 

[neilparker62]

All these nonsense is just a propaganda nothing to speak about. The truth is approximately as follows: For a long time Mr. Putin has been experiencing problems with stability of his power inside the country; particularly he understands that so called majority support is not real but artificial and based on propaganda and repressions; and this majority support can fade in a minute. (If he has such a great support of Russian society then why he increases the police forces all the time?)
A war and an external enemy is an old recipe to consolidate the society around the government. All dictators know it.

I think I was looking for some 'saving graces'. Very plainly there are none. It's very depressing - only hope I see is more and more Russian officers speaking out as in post #1907. Perhaps again it's wishful thinking on my part but there has to be some kind of code of honour in the Russian armed services which views with revulsion what we are seeing in Bucha and other cities that have fallen under Russian occupation.

 

[artis]

Perhaps again it's wishful thinking on my part but there has to be some kind of code of honour in the Russian armed services which views with revulsion what we are seeing in Bucha and other cities that have fallen under Russian occupation.

Well I can't cite studies with regards to this as most of it has happened long ago or in places few people had ways to document it (unlike now) so this is anecdotal evidence, but it is a known fact around where I live that the Russian army has always been more brutal and cruel than other armies. I am not saying all of the soldiers are alike and that there are no soldiers with dignity and honor, but I am saying there are plenty that are.

Red army soldiers raped women back in WW2, looted houses, killed dogs for fun and did other war crimes.
Only back then it all happened on a more massive scale, what has happened so far in Ukraine pales in comparison.
To understand this better one needs to understand the psychology of the average Russian conscript. Unlike his western counterpart he is not a paid professional but rather a guy who failed to get into university (or never even attempted), many come from poor backgrounds and rural places. Their upbringing isn't always according to "the book".
I have heard many personal stories from former army men who were in the obligatory service during the USSR about how harsh army was. Much depended on to which base one was sent. On average those closer to the west like East Germany or Baltics were nicer while the far east ones were harsh not just psychologically but physically. My father had to sleep in barracks while it was -30 outside (Celsius) and inside it was around 0, heat was sometimes a luxury item.
Alot also depended on the local officers and their attitude, some let violence between recruits pass as norm.
It wasn't uncommon for two cadets to get into a fight where someone later died from injuries, not much was done. Dying while in service irrespective of cause was more or less "collateral damage".
It was every loving mother's greatest fear for her son when the time of army came, on average everyone had to serve 2 years. During the 80's many got unlucky and got either sent to Afghanistan or Chernobyl.
So you wish to understand how a war crime is made? Well imagine a poor upbringing combined with mandated service combined with propaganda, fear, stress, lack of sleep, and probably most importantly the understanding that the territory in which you are in is outside law. Those guys know that whatever they do nobody will even ask. So in the end of the day, it's each man according to his conscience.I really do believe that most people are capable of extreme evil if put in the right conditions. I am not excusing Russian war crimes as I believe most are/have been done on purpose, but I think there is plenty of evidence from around the globe how people turn evil rather quickly.
Look at some of the out of control protests in US in these past years, without any police presence I think things would have taken a sharp turn for the worst.

I think the reason why we mostly haven't seen such barbarism in the west is not because people in general have changed, is just that society there has had time to build up strong enough countermeasures that keep everyone in check, even those that would otherwise resort to violence.
And even with those measures and even in a country like the US which is among the most civilized societies ever on Earth there still are neighborhoods and places where homicide and theft is a daily occurrence.

Wish to understand the average Russian conscript? , well just imagine a street gang with official authority and modern weapons, there you have it. I think it's now easy to see how they can shoot civilians on the street and have no remorse.
Again this is not a blanket statement for all, but there is a sizeable portion of such men in the Russian army, and they are being driven towards that at certain times from above.

 

[wrobel]

I see is more and more Russian officers speaking out as in post #1907.

That colonel said that we must feat the honor of those Russian soldiers who died struggling against Ukrainians and he completely agreed with the guy who shut him up.

 

[artis]

That colonel said that we must feat the honor of those Russian soldiers who died struggling against Ukrainians and he completely agreed with the guy who shut him up.

True the English translation is incomplete,@pinball1970 listening in Russian there was never a moment where anyone expressed any sympathy for dead Ukrainians, the guy basically said that Russians have died and that is bad and then the TV presenter did not even allow that and shut him up and said that we should instead focus on , to paraphrase him "on how the glorious Russian army is fighting Nazists and fascists"

 

[fresh_42]

That colonel said that we must feat the honor of those Russian soldiers who died struggling against Ukrainians and he completely agreed with the guy who shut him up.

I don't think this is easy to judge. Firstly, there are no excuses for those war crimes and barbaric actions. On the other hand, normal Russian soldiers, often between 18 and 20 years of age, and of whom thousands have died already, are victims, too. Guilt is an individual property, it does not apply to groups. But I have another problem. I have had a Russian earworm for weeks ... Any ideas?

 

[PeroK]

But I have another problem. I have had a Russian earworm for weeks ... Any ideas?

If thine ear offend thee ...

 

[fresh_42]

If thine ear offend thee ...

The song is from 1994. I won't stop listening to Tchaikovsky either.

 

[bob012345]

What are the odds of success of bribing the majority of Russian soldiers in Ukraine to switch sides and defend Ukraine in exchange for money and safety and Ukrainian citizenship?

 

[BillTre]

They have bribed some to give up and surrender.
Don't know about the rest.

 

[wrobel]

I don't think this is easy to judge.

I have just translated

But I have another problem. I have had a Russian earworm for weeks ... Any ideas?

Try Led Zeppelin

If thine ear offend thee ...

oh yes to be like van Gogh

 

[artis]

What are the odds of success of bribing the majority of Russian soldiers in Ukraine to switch sides and defend Ukraine in exchange for money and safety and Ukrainian citizenship?

That is like bribing a criminal at the moment when he is stealing your car, sure he might comply and take your money and then come back tomorrow to also take your car.