What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

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In summary, the protests in Egypt are continuing and there are reports of violence and fires. The situation is not looking good for the government.
  • #211


BilPrestonEsq said:
Did the U.S. 'transition' peacefully into democracy or did we free ourselves with violence?
The U.S. was built by angry mobs!

Do angry mobs keep electric, gas, and water turned on? Do angry mobs guarantee the availability of a food supply for 18 million people? Does an angry mob protect the weak? Does an angry mob put out fires and rebuild personal property damaged by war?
 
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  • #212


WhoWee said:
Do angry mobs keep electric, gas, and water turned on? Do angry mobs guarantee the availability of a food supply for 18 million people? Does an angry mob protect the weak? Does an angry mob put out fires and rebuild personal property damaged by war?

In other words, as they say in Arab nations, "One hundred years of tyranny is preferable to one day of chaos."

I didn't expect that!
 
  • #213


nismaratwork said:
In other words, as they say in Arab nations, "One hundred years of tyranny is preferable to one day of chaos."

I didn't expect that!


I was responding to this:

"Originally Posted by BilPrestonEsq
Did the U.S. 'transition' peacefully into democracy or did we free ourselves with violence?
The U.S. was built by angry mobs! "

It didn't sound like he was proposing a one day event to me?
 
  • #214


WhoWee said:
I was responding to this:

"Originally Posted by BilPrestonEsq
Did the U.S. 'transition' peacefully into democracy or did we free ourselves with violence?
The U.S. was built by angry mobs! "

It didn't sound like he was proposing a one day event to me?

Did you just take a proverb based on a hadith in arabic... literally? Do I really need to spell out that a saying conveys a sentiment... and this is one you seem to share.

Or I could just be snide and say, "and look, the Mubarak regime is nearly third of the way to the OTHER end of the proverb... in one 'presidency'".
 
  • #215


http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/31/egypt.protests/index.html?hpt=T1

Good sign.

CNN said:
Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- As anti-government demonstrations persist across Egypt and the country's military firmly puts its boots on the ground to establish order, the army said it won't deploy "violence" against the people.

A military spokesman said on state TV Monday that "freedom of opinion in a peaceful manner is allowed for all" and the "armed forces are aware of the legitimate demands of the honest citizens."

"The presence of the armed forces in the Egyptian streets is for your benefit to protect your safety and peace," said the spokesman for the army, which has been regarded favorably by many protesters who despise the police and see that institution as an ally.

The armed forces "will not use violence against this great people which have always played a significant role in every moment of Egypt's great history. And we reassure the armed forces are a force of stability and security for this great nation. The protection of the people is one of its core values," the spokesman said.
 
  • #216


nismaratwork said:
Did you just take a proverb based on a hadith in arabic... literally? Do I really need to spell out that a saying conveys a sentiment... and this is one you seem to share.

Or I could just be snide and say, "and look, the Mubarak regime is nearly third of the way to the OTHER end of the proverb... in one 'presidency'".

Too many things going on today.
 
  • #217


Right now, the protesters are acting with restraint. Groups of them have tried to tamp down thefts and looting, and when the police abandoned the streets, they often filled into direct traffic and keep things moving smoothly. Today, the police are back on the streets.
 
  • #218


turbo-1 said:
Right now, the protesters are acting with restraint. Groups of them have tried to tamp down thefts and looting, and when the police abandoned the streets, they often filled into direct traffic and keep things moving smoothly. Today, the police are back on the streets.

The police are going to be slaughtered if the army stands by and doesn't use violence as advertised.
 
  • #219


WhoWee said:
Too many things going on today.

I don't understand...?
 
  • #221


Evo said:
Is the military setting themselves up to be the new ruling force? Who is seen as the head of the military there?

Normally I'd say yes, but in Egypt Mubarak has been absurdly careful to keep the military happy... and CRUSH any ambitions in the General ranks. I'm sure that the military is discussing what to do now, but beyond the obvious heads of the various branches, there is literally nobody in the military whom the public would have primed to rally behind.

Any leader is either going to be ElBaradai, Mubarak, or a figurehead chosen by the military until elections can be held.

In egypt, you have compulsory service from 18-30 for men, and it's 450,000 strong! The military has never been a ruling force, or really one that aspired to rule, but rather a kind of heroic centerpiece that families take pride in. For better or worse, they don't love Israel, and their army did retake the Suez for a time. As a result, you have the army which is woven into society, with no obvious "strongman"... well... I suspect they won't want power long-term.

In the short term, Egypt really is one of the few places where short-term military rule is feasible without spawning a dictator, and it would keep Islamists from being either marginalized, or especially empowered.
 
  • #222


The military is making noises about solidarity and the rights of citizens, which is good. Unfortunately, Mubarak's cabinet appointments (mostly a re-shuffling of the old guard) is almost 100% military, and that's not going to satisfy the citizens' desire for a less-autocratic government. Mubarak replaced the widely-despised Interior Minister, whose brutal state police are feared and hated. But, who did he choose as a replacement? Mahmoud Wagdi, a retired police general. Probably not a great move, since general officers in the state police won't be held in high regard by the populace.
 
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  • #223


mheslep said:
We certainly hope this is a democratic movement, but so far all we see have for certain are mobs and mobs do not a democracy make. It strikes as highly arrogant of the letter authors to simply assert that this is fact the case.

i find it highly arrogant that you characterize the people there as a mob.
 
  • #224


mheslep said:
We certainly hope this is a democratic movement, but so far all we see have for certain are mobs and mobs do not a democracy make. It strikes as highly arrogant of the letter authors to simply assert that this is fact the case.

I don't understand why you see it as arrogant. Hopeful, yes.

Wrt the mobs...and how would you advise them to get rid of Mubarak? Is there a 'cleaner' way to do it?
 
  • #225


Proton Soup said:
i find it highly arrogant that you characterize the people there as a mob.
I don't mean to demean the people there. Mob: : a large or disorderly crowd; especially : one bent on riotous or destructive action. Apparently for the most part the "large disorderly crowd" has been fairly restrained, though I don't know that I would be after Mubarak had tortured and killed my friends and family. But aside from that they are per reports a large, disorderly crowd. So I retract mob and call them a large disorderly crowd. Do you know better?
 
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  • #226


nismaratwork said:
Good sign.

Yes definitely.

It looks like the latest from CNN indicates that the army now is ready to discuss with the opposition. That is very positive, and if this is fulfilled, it’s a HISTORICAL MOMENT that will change the rest of the Middle East and large parts of the world – FOR THE BETTER!

I don’t want to be a "party pooper" when we got good news, but I think tomorrow will be The Day when the military must "come clean"... the prognosis is 1,000,000 protesters tomorrow (Tuesday). The 'government' has stopped all trains to prevent people from outside to get to Cairo. The latest report is now people are walking instead...

I have no idea how you control 1,000,000 angry protesters? By sitting in their tanks and 'inspecting' the 'crowd'...?

IF the "million prediction" is really happening – my guess is that the military must choose which side they are on, and I truly hope they chose the peaceful solution.


P.S. Who makes these predictions? Who are calling for people to gather? The "Facebook youth"? Who is their leader? Why doesn’t we hear anything from "the leaders" of this? Are there any "leaders"?? Or is all a "random gathering"...??

... many questions ...
 
  • #227


lisab said:
I don't understand why you see it as arrogant. Hopeful, yes.

Wrt the mobs...and how would you advise them to get rid of Mubarak? Is there a 'cleaner' way to do it?

No, and that was my point about colonial america and mobs. They are trying to free themselves from a dictatorship that has been ruling them for decades. Are they going to just hand over that power to the people? "Ok here you go"...Yeah right. Could we have worked it out with the english over a cup of tea? "So, we are just going to stop paying you taxes and form our own country, is that cool?" " Ok by me." I am sure it would have happened just like that... Most likely the U.S. will get involved and we can teach them how to have a "democracy" like the one we have today. That way the aristocrats can hold onto their power... AND they can start having "elections" so that the people think they have the power. Then we can be sure that we can remain on good terms with an OPEC country. Perfect!
 
  • #228


lisab said:
I don't understand why you see it as arrogant. Hopeful, yes.
I think you missed what I defined as as 'it', which was not the crowds, but rather 'it' was the labeling of the rebellion as described by the authors as somehow democratic or that the outcome of the rebellion will be democratic:
democracy: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections

Nobody knows that a democracy will be the outcome of the current rebellion if it is successful in deposing Mubarak. If there's some declaration of independence or rights for Egypt drawn up by the rebellion they need to stop keeping it to themselves. I certainly hope that it will be, both successful and democratic. There's some evidence that will not be democratic. Thus I think it is arrogant for the letter authors to simply state that it will be.

Wrt the mobs...and how would you advise them to get rid of Mubarak? Is there a 'cleaner' way to do it?
I don't get this. You seem to be suggesting I said the [STRIKE]mobs[/STRIKE] large disoderly crowds were a bad thing in of themselves, or that there was a better way. I did neither. They actually seem to be fairly restrained. My concern is the outcome. It might very well be another military dictatorship, or an Islamic caliphate. Neither would be democratic. That is my concern. None of that takes away from my enthusiasm for the people of Egypt to free them selves from Mubarak.
 
  • #229


DevilsAvocado said:
Yes definitely.

It looks like the latest from CNN indicates that the army now is ready to discuss with the opposition. That is very positive, and if this is fulfilled, it’s a HISTORICAL MOMENT that will change the rest of the Middle East and large parts of the world – FOR THE BETTER!

I don’t want to be a "party pooper" when we got good news, but I think tomorrow will be The Day when the military must "come clean"... the prognosis is 1,000,000 protesters tomorrow (Tuesday). The 'government' has stopped all trains to prevent people from outside to get to Cairo. The latest report is now people are walking instead...

I have no idea how you control 1,000,000 angry protesters? By sitting in their tanks and 'inspecting' the 'crowd'...?

IF the "million prediction" is really happening – my guess is that the military must choose which side they are on, and I truly hope they chose the peaceful solution.


P.S. Who makes these predictions? Who are calling for people to gather? The "Facebook youth"? Who is their leader? Why doesn’t we hear anything from "the leaders" of this? Are there any "leaders"?? Or is all a "random gathering"...??

... many questions ...

In a city of 18 million - a crowd of 1 million is realistic. As for leaders, perhaps they will begin to find their voice tomorrow - figure out what they actually want?

I haven't noticed any posts or stories regarding the newspapers in Egypt - are they state controlled - any city papers/tabloids?
 
  • #230


BilPrestonEsq said:
...Then we can be sure that we can remain on good terms with an OPEC country. Perfect!
Egypt does not have any significant oil, is not an OPEC country.
 
  • #231


BilPrestonEsq said:
No, and that was my point about colonial america and mobs. They are trying to free themselves from a dictatorship that has been ruling them for decades. Are they going to just hand over that power to the people? "Ok here you go"...Yeah right. Could we have worked it out with the english over a cup of tea? "So, we are just going to stop paying you taxes and form our own country, is that cool?" " Ok by me." I am sure it would have happened just like that... Most likely the U.S. will get involved and we can teach them how to have a "democracy" like the one we have today. That way the aristocrats can hold onto their power... AND they can start having "elections" so that the people think they have the power. Then we can be sure that we can remain on good terms with an OPEC country. Perfect!

Please clarify- what do you want to see - civil war, (maybe?) pirates on the Suez Canal, or just a small blood bath in the streets (it's really not clear)?
 
  • #232


WhoWee said:
In a city of 18 million - a crowd of 1 million is realistic. As for leaders, perhaps they will begin to find their voice tomorrow - figure out what they actually want?

I haven't noticed any posts or stories regarding the newspapers in Egypt - are they state controlled - any city papers/tabloids?
According to Al Jazeera, someone has been side-stepping state media and is handing out flyers with the names of political parties and potential candidates/leaders. No logos, no partisan slant (apart from leaving out Mubarak's party) and no idea who is behind the flyers.

Things are very complex in Egypt right now, and the situation can't be adequately addressed by the US's mainstream media with their short little sound-bites. Al Jazeera English is doing a wonderful job in this regard. Too good, apparently, since the Mubarak regime is actively blocking their broadcasts and has targeted their crews and confiscated their camera gear.
 
  • #233


WhoWee said:
... might have a degree of uncertainty?

Hum... yes 'uncertainty' or maybe better; "balancing act" in a very tricky political situation...

I’m glad that you got 'compatible'... and of course you are welcome 'home'. :wink:
 
  • #234
  • #235
  • #236


turbo-1 said:
Yes, just Google for the link.

Edit: I see you've got it.

yes and this is even better:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/anger-in-egypt/
 
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  • #237


... I’m worried for tomorrow ... all it takes is one nervous newbie and hell will break loose ... it was close already today ...

qoivpt.jpg
 
  • #238


I watched NBC new tonight. Their live feeds from Egypt were really crappy with pixelation of the video and heavy distortion of the higher frequency audio. Al Jazeera manages to get better-quality footage out of Egypt than NBC... Hmmm
 
  • #239


mheslep said:
Egypt does not have any significant oil, is not an OPEC country.

That's factually correct, but you might add for his information that the reason it IS significant to oil in the region is Suez.
 
  • #240


turbo-1 said:
I watched NBC new tonight. Their live feeds from Egypt were really crappy with pixelation of the video and heavy distortion of the higher frequency audio. Al Jazeera manages to get better-quality footage out of Egypt than NBC... Hmmm

... hummmmm, there’s a lot of "rat smelling" going on... the national Egypt TV is broadcasting the message – "the streets are full of *infiltrators* and dangerous criminals, please don’t go out" ...
 
  • #241


DevilsAvocado said:
... hummmmm, there’s a lot of "rat smelling" going on... the national Egypt TV is broadcasting the message – "the streets are full of *infiltrators* and dangerous criminals, please don’t go out" ...

I'm betting the Egyptians will be savvy enough to recognize BS when they hear it :smile:!
 
  • #242


DevilsAvocado said:
... hummmmm, there’s a lot of "rat smelling" going on... the national Egypt TV is broadcasting the message – "the streets are full of *infiltrators* and dangerous criminals, please don’t go out" ...

They're WAY too angry to care at this point... I wouldn't worry.
 
  • #243


mheslep said:
I don't mean to demean the people there. Mob: : a large or disorderly crowd; especially : one bent on riotous or destructive action. Apparently for the most part the "large disorderly crowd" has been fairly restrained, though I don't know that I would be after Mubarak had tortured and killed my friends and family. But aside from that they are per reports a large, disorderly crowd. So I retract mob and call them a large disorderly crowd. Do you know better?

as far as disorder goes, the best i can tell is that the people have ransacked police stations and burned a democratic national party building. they absolutely hate the police for some reason, that best i can tell is related to people being rounded up, held and tortured. read an account of a journalist that got the crap beat out of him by police for filming. reports from more than one that police looted the museum.

there is violence, but it seems to be fairly narrowly directed. and the accounts from people seem to be very sensitive of how the world views them. they don't want to be seen as uncivilized.
 
  • #244


turbo-1 said:
I watched NBC new tonight. Their live feeds from Egypt were really crappy with pixelation of the video and heavy distortion of the higher frequency audio. Al Jazeera manages to get better-quality footage out of Egypt than NBC... Hmmm

they said on NPR today that it was possible to get internet, but that you had to basically use dialup to foreign ISPs. i can't image there is much bandwidth available doing that. even here, you need to be close to the phone company to get connections at 54K, so that must be much worse, forcing them to compress a lot. funny they wouldn't just satellite uplink it. al jazeera probably has a much better sneaker net there, too.
 

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