Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Astronuc]

A recent interview with exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky commenting on recent events.
He does not hold back in this interview... at all.

Some context to 2013/2014. Article published 3 Sep 2014
https://www.vox.com/2014/9/3/18088560/ukraine-everything-you-need-to-know

This all began as an internal Ukrainian crisis in November 2013, when President Viktor Yanukovych (pro-Russian) rejected a deal for greater integration with the European Union (here's why this was such a big deal), sparking mass protests, which Yanukovych attempted to put down violently. Russia backed Yanukovych in the crisis, while the US and Europe supported the protesters.

Since then, several big things have happened. In February, anti-government protests toppled the government and ran Yanukovych out of the country. Russia, trying to salvage its lost influence in Ukraine, invaded and annexed Crimea the next month. In April, pro-Russia separatist rebels began seizing territory in eastern Ukraine.

A lot of this comes down to Ukraine's centuries-long history of Russian domination. The country has been divided more or less evenly between Ukrainians who see Ukraine as part of Europe and those who see it as intrinsically linked to Russia. An internal political crisis over that disagreement may have been inevitable. Meanwhile, in Russia, Putin is pushing an imperial-revival, nationalist worldview that sees Ukraine as part of greater Russia — and as the victim of ever-encroaching Western hostility.

It appears unlikely that Ukraine will get Crimea back. It remains unclear whether Russian forces will try to annex parts of eastern Ukraine as well, how the fighting there will end, and what this means for the future of Ukraine — and for Putin's increasingly hostile but isolated Russia.

Well it is now clear that Putin would attack and will occupy Ukraine if permitted.

After Yanukovych, Oleksandr Turchynov was acting president in 2014 until Petro Poroshenko was sworn in as Ukrainian President on 7 June 2014. Poroshenko was president until 20 May 2019. Then Zelenskyy became president assuming office 20 May 2019.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Turchynov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Poroshenko
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Ukraine#List_of_presidents

Russian invaded Crimea starting 20 February 2014 (Yanukovych was out of office on 22 February 2014), while the Ukrainian government was in turmoil. Russia annexed of Crimea on 18 March 2014. It's not clear how the US and EU (i.e., NATO) could have helped Ukraine, except by direct intervention with Russia and behalf of Ukraine, something that NATO is reluctant to do even now.

 

[Astronuc]

Prior to the current situation, an interview in Nov 2019 with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev - BBC News.

 

[artis]

@Astronuc I like your interest and you seem to make lots of well thought posts.
As for your last ones, well the sad truth on the ground in Russia is that Gorbachev is among their least favorite politicians , I think we can understand at least one big reason for why that is...

I found this article rather realistic also from my own personal observations living here. Stalin only loses to Gorbachev in the Baltics... think about that, it says alot. And this is given Stalin terrorized Russians equally as people from other former republics. It almost feels like a weird form of the "Stockholm syndrome"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...s-than-gorbachev-infographic/?sh=23b5d9e21663

 

[DaveC426913]

Oh, now I see. That is an echo of that endless stupid dispute.

I'm not sure Ukranian citizens see it as stupid.
It's symbolic of Russia's conceit that Ukraine is and has been merely an extension of Russia. That kind of smarts in these times.

 

[Astronuc]

s for your last ones, well the sad truth on the ground in Russia is that Gorbachev is among their least favorite politicians , I think we can understand at least one big reason for why that is...

I understand the antipathy toward Gorbachev in Russia, but the reality, much was out of Gorbachev's hands, and there were so many others involved, including leaders in the west. I don't believe Gorbachev understood the chaos that would occur with the dissolution of the SU, or Yeltsin and the rise of the oligarchs, and ultimately Putin. Much of the suffering in Russia is self-inflicted, as is the case of most countries, especially in modern times.

It could have gone differently if the US and EU had supported Gorbachev. So-called experts in the west were caught off-guard when the SU collapsed. If not for the incompetent and corrupt populists, and kleptocrats, Russia could have been very successful on par with US, EU and China.

Russia needed visionaries like Boris Nemtsov, but he was murdered/assassinated "less than two days before he was due to take part in a peace rally against Russian involvement in the war in Ukraine and the financial crisis in Russia."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Nemtsov#Nemtsov's_fears

I'll continue the thought later, but I also don't want to drift off from the OP topic, Ukraine and the Russian invasion, and what comes next. But what happened from 1988-1992 is relevant to where we are now.

 

[wrobel]

It's symbolic of Russia's conceit that Ukraine is and has been merely an extension of Russia.

ok then the same must be true for Poland since this language uses the same preposition for the word Ukraine

 

[fresh_42]

ok then the same must be true for Poland since this language uses the same preposition for the word Ukraine

And I wouldn't be surprised if Sorbian, too.

 

[DaveC426913]

ok then the same must be true for Poland since this language uses the same preposition for the word Ukraine

Presumably,yes. And if there's a 1200 post thread about Poland here somewhere, point me at it.

 

[wrobel]

I'm not sure Ukranian citizens see it as stupid.
It's symbolic of Russia's conceit that Ukraine is and has been merely an extension of Russia. That kind of smarts in these times.

And may I ask you to be little bit more precise in formulations. The phrase "Putin's regime conceit that Ukraine is and has been merely an extension of Russia" is correct but if you want to say the same about Russia as a whole I have bad news for you: you are in the same boat with ... Hope you have got my idea.

 

[DaveC426913]

And may I ask you to be little bit more precise in formulations. The phrase "Putin's regime conceit that Ukraine is and has been merely an extension of Russia" is correct but if you want to say the same about Russia as a whole I have bad news for you: you are in the same boat with ... Hope you have got my idea.

Well, I took my cue from Time Magazine Online, to-wit:

“The Ukraine is the way the Russians referred to that part of the country during Soviet times..."

The implication is that Russia's conceit both subsumes and precedes Putin's.However, I think any further light you can shed on this widely confusing issue would benefit us all.

 

[wrobel]

The implication is that Russia's conceit both subsumes and precedes Putin's.

Russia is a country. A country can not experience conceit. A person or persons can. Please detail whom do you exactly mean by saying "Russia's conceit"?

 

[DaveC426913]

I concede and withdraw. Call Ukraine whatever suits you.
Also, I apologize for having apparently offended.

 

[fresh_42]

Russia is a country. A country can not experience conceit.

There is an essential difference between many countries in Europe, big ones like Russia, or smaller ones like Germany and Canada or the US. Subtract all European, Asian, and Latin migrations into North America after 1400 AC from North America and what is left is what we have in Europe: really many different people (tribes).

The continent hasn't been taken by conquerers, conquérants, and conquistadors as in America. The native tribes are still native tribes, mostly. This leads to an entirely different situation and understanding of the concept country. Here is a list of people who live in Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia
And e.g. an Ossetian doesn't consider himself as Russian. Russian is his second language. A Korean in San Francisco probably does consider himself an American. And even the 81% of Russians in Russia are hardly all of the same opinion or even Putin followers.

 

[Bandersnatch]

It's the same in Polish, yes. It's an issue of the register, rather than some hard and fast rule. By the virtue of which words it is commonly used with, the equivalent of 'on' registers somewhat more as denoting geographical regions, provinces, etc. rather than countries.

Considering how Poland (same as Russia) had in its history extended to parts of the territory of modern-day Ukraine, and there's some incendiary semi-recent history between the two that occasionally festers, the use of 'on' can be taken to be implicitly denigrating.

So 'in' has been preferred by speakers wanting to emphasise the independent statehood of Ukraine, or simply to show support.

The opposition to such changes comes almost universally from the language traditionalist/can't be bothered crowd, though - around here this linguistic titbit isn't really a battlefield of opposing ideas on Ukrainian independence. I suspect that's also where wrobel's exasperation at seeing this brought up comes from.

Of course, where the political status of a country is not as fraught, the traditional use of 'on' is seldom challenged - as with Slovakia, Lithuania, or Belarus.

 

[DennisN]

Twice-poisoned Putin critic makes prediction about Russian government (CNN, Mar 19, 2022)

Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza speaks out about how Russia could possibly achieve regime change as the war in Ukraine continues.

 

[geordief]

Twice-poisoned Putin critic makes prediction about Russian government (CNN, Mar 19, 2022)

Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza speaks out about how Russia could possibly achieve regime change as the war in Ukraine continues.

I listened to that but I didn't notice much "prediction about the Russian government " save to say that he advocated somehow breaching the wall of censorship around what the Russian public can be told by a free media.

 

[Astronuc]

My wife read to me a short news item, which I hope is only a rumor. I have not substantiated the story, but the allegation is that Russian forces are kidnapping and shipping Ukrainian citizens from Mariupol to Russian cities/towns. That is ethnic cleansing. If this is happening, NATO needs to gets its **** together and expel Russian forces or otherwise remove them. The west cannot wait for Russia to annex any more of Ukraine; instead Russia must forfeit all Ukrainian territory, and if need be, a buffer zone inside Russia.

 

[DennisN]

I listened to that but I didn't notice much "prediction about the Russian government " save to say that he advocated somehow breaching the wall of censorship around what the Russian public can be told by a free media.

I agree. I posted the interview because I think his opinions were interesting. I've been watching quite a lot of interviews with various Russians (both younger and older) since the invasion started, because I wanted to try to understand more about what was going on in the Russian society.

 

[DennisN]

My wife read to me a short news item, which I hope is only a rumor. I have not substantiated the story, but the allegation is that Russian forces are kidnapping and shipping Ukrainian citizens from Mariupol to Russian cities/towns.

I've heard about that too.

Two tweets about it here: EuroMaidan Press, The Kyiv Independent

It has also been mention in The Guardian's live feed (under the header "Mariupol City Council says residents are being taken to Russia (22:11)"): The Guardian live feed.

 

[geordief]

I have been hearing about sabotage occurring in Belarus hampering logistics wrt supplying Russian forces,presumably around Kiev(,a Twitter feed from the main opposition party there apparently)

Seems like a glimmer of hope,(I hope there is some substance to this)

 

[geordief]

I've heard about that too.

Two tweets about it here: EuroMaidan Press, The Kyiv Independent

It has also been mention in The Guardian's live feed (under the header "Mariupol City Council says residents are being taken to Russia (22:11)"): The Guardian live feed.

Presumably justified along the lines of evacuating them for their own safety

As Trump would say "genius"

 

[Astronuc]

Presumably justified along the lines of evacuating them for their own safety

That would be the Russian line.

I suspect Russia will depopulate E. Ukraine of native population, and replace with Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians.

 

[Scott Scott]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

It could if we interfere or if Putin is forced to use nuclear weapons. Putin figured this whole thing prior to launching his attack in a geopolitical sense; he knew that however much the Western alliance could howl and twist and turn from outrage, there was nothing they could do to avoid Ukraine getting a pummeling from Russia because they had no alliance with Ukraine. He COUNTED on a STABLE sequence of predictable circumstances and on NATO not interfering if for no other reason than a nuclear war would result, but if things crumble militarily for Russia or if the US against all common sense decided to intervene in any way, the situation could become UNSTABLE unpredictable for all concerned. This risk is something Putin anticipated and he is running it probably closer than he would have liked. Because its the situational INSTABILITY that presents the opportunity for war between Russia and the US and the consequences that ensue. Or if Russia decides it needs to preemptively attack with NATO with nuclear weapons. He doesn't have general European war making capability without nuclear weapons.

 

[wrobel]

Of course, where the political status of a country is not as fraught, the traditional use of 'on' is seldom challenged - as with Slovakia, Lithuania, or Belarus.

For the words Lithuania or Belarus in Russian the preposition "in" is used traditionally (not "on" as for Ukraine). So there is no political explanation here again since the political status of Lithuania Belarus and Ukraine was the same. Just a language

 

[wrobel]

I suspect Russia will depopulate E. Ukraine of native population, and replace with Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians

Ukraine is a too large cake to swallow it.

 

[artis]

I suspect Russia will depopulate E. Ukraine of native population, and replace with Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians.

This is absolutely nothing new in the Kremlin's textbook.
Back during WW2 and later a second time in 1949 mass deportations took place within the USSR under Stalin.
All people deemed to be unfit for integration within a socialistic/communistic society or enemies of the state where put on secret lists , then one night a special operation by NKVD where agents with rifles rounded up in the middle of night all those on the lists in their homes and took them to the nearest train stations where a special train consisting of railcars used for animal transport picked them up, in the middle of winter.
Then those people had a 2 week non stop train journey to the farthest Russian east - Siberia.
The fragile and weak died within the train. To save space dead bodies were dumped along the tracks as the trained rolled along without stopping. My grandfather was among the passengers. He was lucky, he had skills and soon fought his way up the chain becoming the director of a local Siberian coal mine. The Russians appreciated his harsh temper for pushing the lazy workers to work harder producing more output which the communist bureaucrats enjoyed. This is as close as anyone ever got to "the survival of the fittest" by being on that "railroad to hell"
The only good thing he said was that in Siberia there were lots of natural resources you just had to have the strength to get them, lots of good animals - meat in the forest to hunt for, a never ending supply of wood and logs you just had to chop it, and soil full of nutrients in the summer, he said it was enough to just throw a potato in the soil and step on it , then later on it gave a plentiful harvest.

The provided picture in the link is very accurate , semi trucks used for transfer of dirt and rocks were used to transfer the gathered people to their trains which as I said consisted of "animal" cattle cars.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2018/10/28/stalin-deported-100000-ukrainians-to-siberia-and-kazakhstan-in-october-1947/

This is how those railcars looked back then , notice the 2 faces looking out through the upper ventilation hole

This is how that same type of car looks these days, stationed at a local station near the capital of my country.

Some trains looked like this.

Some resources for those interested

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union

https://www.rbth.com/history/333112-stalin-forced-relocation-nations

https://qirim.news/en/kryimskie-tat...tted-holodomor-and-crimean-tatar-deportation/

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/culture/history/latvia-marks-june-1941-deportations.a363676/

 

[PeroK]

My wife read to me a short news item, which I hope is only a rumor. I have not substantiated the story, but the allegation is that Russian forces are kidnapping and shipping Ukrainian citizens from Mariupol to Russian cities/towns. That is ethnic cleansing. If this is happening, NATO needs to gets its **** together and expel Russian forces or otherwise remove them. The west cannot wait for Russia to annex any more of Ukraine; instead Russia must forfeit all Ukrainian territory, and if need be, a buffer zone inside Russia.

Apart from the "miracle" of Putin being removed by a coup, this looks inevitable. A horror as great as anything the 20th Century threw up.

I would propose a complete and immediate embargo on all Russian oil and gas sales to Europe. If we to sit in the cold for a bit, that's nothing compared to the price the Ukrainians are paying.

 

[artis]

 

[neilparker62]

With respect you can give whatever history you like but the horrors of Mariupol already speak for themselves. Can we "justify" Stalin's excesses by pointing at Hitler ?

 

[neilparker62]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/19/...kraine-international-space-station/index.html

Encouraging if indeed the Russian cosmonauts are putting across a subtle message to Mr Putin. All I can say is roll on ISS!

 

[fresh_42]

 

[Vanadium 50]

I would propose a complete and immediate embargo on all Russian oil and gas sales to Europe.

Can't be done. For years much of Europe has been hooked on Russian energy so they can pretend the are "Green" without having to go nuclear.

 

[PeroK]

Can't be done.

It could be done and would have to be done if Putin turned off the supply. It would be painful, of course.

 

[phinds]

I would propose a complete and immediate embargo on all Russian oil and gas sales to Europe. If we to sit in the cold for a bit, that's nothing compared to the price the Ukrainians are paying.

Yes, it would be less than Ukraine is paying but it is NOT just "sitting in the cold for a bit". European industry depends on Russian energy. You would do very severe economic damage to Europe which might be OK w/ you but is not likely to be OK with the average European or their governments.

 

[Astronuc]

It could be done and would have to be done if Putin turned off the supply.

That would be a national security concern. Take away the US/NATO. If Putin wanted to invade Europe, all he'd have to do is turn off the energy flow, and invade a week or two later.

Edit: Of course, one could argue that Putin wouldn't dare to that, just he wouldn't invade Ukraine - until he did.